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NFL Best Bets (9/29/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | September 29, 2024 | 1:47 A.M. CST
NFL Best Bets:
1) Green Bay Packers -2.5 vs. Minnesota Vikings: This is just a sell high spot on the Vikings. They have been exceeding oddsmakers expectations all season thus far, and have looked great to the naked eye. And they absolutely deserve the credit they are getting. However, they’ve still are dealing with lots of injuries. Jordan Addison (WR2) is a GTD. Still no TJ Hockinson for the Vikings either. And while Darnold has been great so far, now he’s having to go on the road and do it outdoors against a team not named the New York Giants. Additionally, the Packers are getting Jordan Love back. They have played great without him, but with him back they will be so much more dynamic. If the defense can keep Jefferson in check this offense should be humming tomorrow for GB and I could see the Pack jumping on them early. I like the Packers at home laying less than a FG in a big let down spot for Minnesota after back-to-back big wins as an underdog
2) 2 Team 6 Point Teaser: Raiders +8.5 to Saints +9
These two teams are both off disappointing performances in week 3, and will be looking to bounce back week 4. The Raiders got embarrassed by the winless Panthers, a game in which Andy Dalton threw for over 300 yards and 3 TDs against a Raiders defense that had shown pretty well through 2 weeks. My belief is that the Raiders were just not ready to play, and came in off a big road win over the Baltimore Ravens, thinking they were going to do whatever they wanted against the Panthers. And, that’s just not how the NFL works. But more than that, this is a fade of the Browns. In order for us to lose this side of the teaser, the Browns have to outscore the Raiders by at least 9, on the road. The Browns have yet to eclipse 18 total points in a single game this season. Barring defensive/special teams touchdowns, I believe 10 points from the Raiders offense would give us a legitimate shot at covering, and 17+ would be an automatic cover. So I like the value there
The second part, is the Saints +9. Again this is kind of similar to the previous game. The lone loss for the Saints came last week, and they’ll be looking to bounce back. This is also a divisional opponent and these games tend to be very tight. Additionally, last week’s loss by the Saints came well within this number of 9 points. If the Saints offense can get back to what it was the first two weeks against a subpar Atlanta Defense, then this should be an easy cover. If not, I still think New Orleans’ “D” can do enough here to keep this close. They held the Eagles in check for the most part last week, albeit with no AJ Brown. And, now they’re facing a Falcons team who is averaging just north of 16 points per game. Again, in order for us to lose this bet, a BAD offensive team has to outscore a GOOD defensive team by MULTIPLE scores. It’s just a logical spot here to take the Saints.
Additionally, last week all teams who were underdogs in this range were winning teaser legs, while the teams that were in the -7 to -9.5 range, and were teased under a field goal, lost.
BOTH PLAYS = 2-Star Plays
College Football Best Bets (9/28/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | September 28, 2024 | 3:30 A.M. CST
Best Bets:
1) Georgia -1 vs. Bama = 2-Star
2) Baylor -3 vs. BYU = 2-Star
3) UCONN -5.5 vs. Buffalo = 2-Star
4) Indiana -7 vs. Maryland = 2-Star
5) James Madison vs. Ball State OVER 56 = 1-Star
Plays that nearly made the card:
Navy -3.5 vs. UAB
South Florida +4.5 vs. Tulane
UTSA +3 vs. East Carolina
TCU/Kansas OVER 57.5
Notre Dame -6 vs. Louisville
Clemson/Stanford OVER 57.5
New Mexico State +9.5 vs. New Mexico
Oregon -25 vs. UCLA
Monday Night Football Prop Bet (9/23/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | September 23, 2024 | 4:37 P.M. CST
In this weekly article I’m going to give my best prop bet for the Monday Night game (or games in this case). Tonight there are two games, the Jags at the Bills & Commanders at the Bengals. We’re going to look to the early game (Bills/Jags).
Best Bet: Josh Allen OVER 234.5 Pass Yards
Look the Bills have definitely leaned into the old Sean McDermott days (pre-Josh Allen) where they were a heavy run, smash mouth football team. However, Josh Allen is still Josh Allen, and he’s looked like an MVP candidate through 2 weeks. Normally I’m not a huge fan of going over on passing yard props, especially not this year where the QBs have not played well at all across the board. However, this specific matchup is very adventageous to Allen.
The Jaguars have traditionally been a purely zone coverage team, however this year with a new Defensive Cooredinator, the Jags have become almost exclusively a man-to-man coverage team. The problem with that, is that Josh Allen EXCELS against man. 90% of teams zone Josh Allen because it makes him think and have to take what the defense gives him (i.e. tougher to make big plays, easier to turn it over). Now, could the Jags come out with a specific gameplan and absolutely go to heavy zone coverage. But it’s MUCH more difficult for a team that plays exclusively man to play a ton of zone with just one week to prepare. I think this is going to create a ton of issues for the Jags, regardless of what they do defensively.
Additionally, Jarrian Jones, the Jaguars best cover cornerback, will miss this game due to injury. So you have a team already in a mismatch against this specific QB, down their top corner, who’s already shown vulnrability to giving up big pass plays. I just think this number is a touch short. It’s based more on what QBs have done against Jacksonville historically, as well as the idea that this is a realtively normal scoring game. I love going over here so let’s go over 234.5 pass yards. I see -121 as the juice in most spots, you could take this up to 236.5 (according to my numbers).
Official Prop Bet: Josh Allen OVER 234.5 pass yards (-121)
Play Rating: 1-Star
NFL Best Bets (9/22/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | September 22, 2024 | 2:07 A.M. CST
Best Bet: Ravens -1.5 vs. Cowboys
Rating: 4 Stars
College Football Best Bets (9/21/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | September 21, 2024 | 2:17 A.M. CST
All three underdogs on Friday night covered the spread with ease. And if Washington State hadn’t pulled off a crazy comeback late to win in double OT, we’d have had 3 9+ point dogs winning outright last night! Crazy night, let’s see what week 4 brings us!
Best Bets For Saturday:
Top Play of the Week: TCU -2 @ SMU | 4-Star (2% of Bankroll)
TCU comes into this one off a brutal loss in week 3. The Horned Frogs led by as many as 21 in the second half at home against UCF, a game where they took professional money to close this line as a 3 point favorite. It looked like an easy win, but UCF finally found their offense early in the second half. After an incredible comeback, the Knights trailed by 6 on their final drive, but scored a TD and tacked on the extra point to take the lead. TCU had one last shot and got into longshot field goal range, but they were unable to convert on a 58-yard try as time expired.
I’m glad TCU lost that game, because if they hold onto that early lead and win last week going away, I’m not sure what this line is (closer to 6). Now look I understand, you can’t just discount an entire half football. However, TCU was the BETTER TEAM for the majority of that game against UCF. I really like what Josh Hoover has done his first three starts this year. The kid threw for over 270, over 350, and over 400 in his three starts, he’s thrown 8 TDs and has ZERO picks. TO’s were a big issue for him in his snaps last year, but he looks to have cleaned that up.
I definitely do like what TCU has shown offensively, but the main reason I LOVE this matchup is because I’ve HATED what I’ve seen from SMU this season. The Pony Express decided to bench their starting QB Preston Stone, who led them to one of their best seasons in DECADES last year. Instead they’ve gone to a 3rd year guy in Kevin Jennings. The kid is supposedly a great leader, and beloved by his teammates. That’s great and all, but he’s a HUGE downgrade from Stone. This move is actually baffling to me. I know Stone is coming off a big injury at the end of last season, but to bench him in favor of Jennings is going to cost SMU their season. Just last week, SMU was upset, AT HOME, vs. BYU as a double digit favorite. The offense mustered up just 15 points against a BYU team picked to finish dead last in the Big 12. Jennings was 14/32., 140 yards, and an INT. He was horrific. SMU had no business losing that game to an inferior BYU team, but the coaching decisions cost them big time.
Overall, I just see this is as a very motivated TCU team coming in, coming off that tough loss vs UCF. They absolutely cannot afford this loss. On the other side you have an SMU team clearly trending down, with a very poor QB, in what already feels like it may be a lost season. I just think these are two very mismatched teams headed in opposite directions (at least from an offensive standpoint). There’s been a battle in this game, which I do NOT get (meaning pro bettors have taken both sides). It must be because SMU’s defense is better than TCU’s on paper. But I truly believe this is a blowout. TCU 34 - SMU 17
The Remainder of the BEST BETS Below are ALL 2-Star Plays (1% Bankroll)
Best Bet No. 2: Georgia Tech +10.5 @ #19 Louisville: We don’t know much about Louisville. They’ve played absolutely nobody, while GT is much more battle tested. GT tends to get up for games like this. They struggle in games where they are the favorite. Hanes King has been a cash cow as a dog.
Best Bet No. 3: Tulane -120 vs. Louisiana: This line has come down and it’s freaked me out a little bit, but what I’ve learned is that the market has become flooded with guys who don’t know football, and they PURELY take numbers based on analytics and perceived value. I can’t imagine anyone looking at this game from a coaching perspective or from an eye test perspective and thinking Louisiana is the side. Tulane has the better coach. The better Strength of Schedule. The more talented roster. Give me Tulane here EVERY DAY of the week, and twice on Saturday.
Best Bet No. 4: Louisiana Tech -2.5 @ Tulsa: LT opened as a 1 point dog, and now they are sitting as a near field goal favorite. Why? Because everyone saw what I saw last week, which was that Tulsa may have the worst secondary/pass defense in the country. And they’re playing a team who throws the ball more than any team in the country in LT, who also just had NC State on the ropes in Raleigh. Give me LA Tech here in this spot to win by 3 or more.
Best Bet No. 5: Buffalo +14 @ NIU: This one is simple. Fade the coach who has been incredibly inconsistent over the course of his career as a head coach, coming off the biggest win of his coaching career. We’re catching 2 TDs here and it actually wouldn’t shock me if Buffalo won this game outright. Last time we saw NIU, they were taking down top 10 ranked Notre Dame in South Bend. They were a 28 point dog in that game where they believed nobody gave them a shot to even compete. Now think about the situation now, just 2 weeks later in their next game. They’re now RANKED in the top 25 for the first time in who knows how long (maybe ever). And they are playing below average Buffalo team. HUGE Let down spot. Throw in that NIU’s head coach is 0-4 off a bye. Give me Buffalo and grab this as quick as possible because those 14s are disappearing from the market if you catch my drift
Best Bet No. 6: Rutgers +3.5 @ Virginia Tech: Greg Schiano with an extra week to prepare has been something you want to be on the right side of historically. It’s going to be really tough sledding offensively for a VT team that really looked subpar against a BAD Old Dominion team last week. I don’t know if everyone was just wrong about this VT team, but I’ve seen them play multiple times now, and nothing about them is remotely impressive. They were lucky to even get back in the Vanderbilt game. Should’ve lost by 2 TDs. Now they’re laying 3.5 against a much better team than Vandy, off a bye, with a superior coach? Don’t love Rutgers QB or offense, but I can’t pass up Schiano in this spot. Wish we were catching more like 5.5 but I’ll still take it at 3.5
Best Bet No. 7: UCONN -120 (ML) vs. FAU: FAU nearly pulled off a big upset over Michigan State in East Lansing week 1. If you didn’t know, MSU is not good this year, so even had they won that game, it’s unlikely I would feel any different here in this spot. Last week FAU played their in state rival Florida International. If you look at the final score you’d think FAU probably dominated the game. That’s far from the truth. In fact, FIU outgained FAU on a yards per pass, per rush, and overall per play. However, FIU turned the ball over 5 times and FAU didn’t turn it over once. That is what led to the lopsided outcome, despite FAU not playing very well. I’m not a fan of Tom Herman whatsoever. I backed him and FAU once last year in a similar spot to this and they got smashed. W’ere fading Tom Herman and the Owls here, and we’re actually taking the UCONN Huskies for a best bet. Can’t believe I’m saying this but lay the small juice on the ML and back UCONN to win this one.
Remember these are all my best bets, and besides the top play, these other ones are all 2-stars.
ML Dog Parlay of the Week:
Utah over Oki State, Arkansas over Auburn, Houston over Cinci
1U —> +1030 odds
Below Are Just A few Plays from other sharp bettors as well as some plays that barely missed my card. The following plays are NOT official, just some things I considered betting or put a few bucks on.
East Carolina +7.5, Vanderbilt +21/+20, Arkansas +3 or better, South Florida +17, Illinois +9, Stanford +9, SJSU +14.5, UVA -3, Houston +5.5, Michigan +5.5, Navy +9.5, TTU -3
NFL Best Bets (9/15/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | September 15, 2024 | 2:18 A.M. CST
NFL Best Bets:
2 Team, 6 Point Teaser: Detroit Lions -1 | Denver Broncos +8.5 = 2-Star
The Lions have a significant offensive advantage against the Tampa Bay Bucs + they’re at home. Additionally, the Bucs have a trio of defensive players out. The Bucs SHOULD be able to put up points on the Lions, but this is not the Commanders in Tampa Bay week 1 against a Rookie QB and a brand new coaching staff. This is against a team that is quite possibly the SB Favorite in the NFC now with McCaffrey’s health in question. Additionally we’ve got the Broncos +8.5 I don’t think this team is good whatsoever, but I do think they’ll show better than they did last week. They stayed within this number last week ON THE ROAD, at Seattle, with Bo Nix making his first career start and throwing 2 picks. Now they get to play at home, against a team playing their 2nd consecutive road game, who failed to score a TD last week as a team. And they have to not only beat us, but they have to do so by more than a touchdown and a two point conversion. We’ll take this two team teaser for play number 1
2 Team, 6 Point Teaser: Baltimore Ravens -2.5 | Houston Texans PK = 2-Star
The Ravens are not starting 0-2, nor are they losing to the LV Raiders and Gardner Minshew at home. Additionally, the Houston Texans didn’t look great week 1. But the Bears had the most fraudalent win, probably in NFL history last week. Caleb Williams was autrocious, and the game is in Houston. Expect the rookie QB to look much better than week 1, but I’d be shocked to see the Bears actually pull out the win here.
2 Team, 6 Point Teaser: KC Chiefs PK | Denver Broncos +8.5 = 2-Star
Adding this play as well. The Broncos can keep this within 8.5 as mentioned above. The Chiefs and Bengals always play close games, but this version of the Bengals is just awful. I don’t see them hanging in there in KC.
Just Missed Card:
Detroit Lions TT OVER 30.5 (-105): I just think the Bucs are going to have immense trouble trying to contain this Lions offense, especially after a subpar outing in week 1 against the Rams. The Lions are going to hang 40 in this spot I believe. The number scared me. away from making this an official play
Falcons @ Eagles OVER 46.5 (-110): It’s hard for me to see how this game goes under. The Phili defense last week looked terrible against the pass, and that was with Jordan Love playing like he did early in the 2023 season. He had a bottom 5 QBR in week 1, and yet the Packers put up 29 points in a game 8 hours from home. Jayden Reed TORCHED the Eagles secondary for 138 yards and a TD on just 4 catches. The Packers put up 414 yards of total offense, including 7.1 yards per play (over 1.5 yards per play more than Phili). Really if it wasn’t for Saquon Barkley and the Packers struggles inside the 20 yard line of the Eagles, GB probably wins that game. On the other side you have the Falcons offense who was supposed to be much improved with Kirk Cousins and a new coaching staff. But they looked terrible week 1 at home against the Steelers. That said, the Steelers are a top 5 NFL defense. The Eagles are FAR FROM a Top 5 defense. So although Atlanta did not look good, I expect them to bounce back here. I think both offenses will put up a lot of points, and yet the total is not very high. The one reason I haven’t taken this is because I want to see the weather in Phili on Monday. This could be a potential added play if the weather holds Monday night.
College Football Best Bet Summary Week 3
Author: Dylan Lieck | September 15, 2024 | 1:02 A.M. CST
After a rough start to the year on our official best bets (1-2 each of the first two weeks), we finally got in the winning column this week with a nice 4-2 Saturday. Add in the Friday night special (KST -7), and we are now up to 7-6 on the season despite the rough start to the year. I’ve had 5 straight seasons in CFB above 60% and I’m looking to make it 6 in a row. Hopefully this gets us back on the right track as we look to inch closer to .600 in week 4!!
Winners:
Miami/Ball State OVER 54: We only needed one team to score to get this one. Miami put up 62. I thought Ball State would put up at least 10, which would mean we’d only need 44 from Miami. Instead we got more than enough from the Canes alone. Biggest play of the day was a winner.
Texas Tech/North Texas OVER 68.5: Almost made this a 2-star, but still a nice winner on the total. We needed 69 to win the bet in the game. We got 59 in the first half. This was a rocking chair winner.
Indiana -3 @ UCLA: Another rocking chair winner here as the Hoosiers DEMOLISHED the Bruins at the Rose Bowl.
South Florida - 11 vs. Southern Miss: I have no clue how this line wasn’t closer to 18. If you watched the South Florida/Bama game last week, you’d know that this Bulls team damn near upset the Tide in Tuscaloosa. It was a 1 point game headed to the 4th, and a 5 point game with under 6 minutes to play. The final score was deceiving, and Southern Miss has a PUTRID defense. A nice late night addition. 4 Winners, none were close.
Losers:
Tulsa +18.5 @ Oki State: I watched Oki State get outgained by nearly 300 yards last week and somehow win against Arkansas. I also watched this Pokes team struggle to run the ball the first two games, and I thought Tulsa would be able to score on this defense after Arkansas torched them for over 650 total yards last week. Unfortunately, despite being the home team and having a QB who had shown well the first two weeks, Tulsa had ZERO offense. And although they were able to stop the run, they were horrific against the pass. Once they got in a big hole, there was no climbing out. They got killed, and this one was never close. Absolutely the wrong side in this specific game, but I’m going to continue to look to fade Oki State down the stretch. They could very easily be 2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS, and they’re somehow 3-0 in both.
Hawaii +3.5 @ Sam Houston State: Not going to lie, I over thought this one. I had SHSU -4.5 on my card on Friday with a strong consideration on laying the 4. The market began to move against me and got as low as 3. I started to believe that I was wrong. And when I went back and dove into the box scores of their previous outings I convinced myself that I was on the wrong side. I also realized Hawaii off a bye has been pretty good in the past, as it negates some of the travel disadvantage. But I just made the wrong decision here. SHSU was the right side the whole way, and at the very least I should’ve stayed away from this one and just finished 4-1. Oh well, still a great weekend at 4-2. Can’t ask for better than that.
Check my most recent blog for my NFL Best Bets
Last week, a tough start. However we had Tennessee +4, who led by a score of 17-0. They led 17-3 at halftime, and by 7 entering the 4th. AND, Chicago didn’t score an offensive TD the entire game. In fact they had just 148 total yards in the game. And somehow, someway they covered, and cost us a loser. Keep in mind teams who led by 17 or more over the past decade, as a 4 point dog or bigger were 66-0-1 heading into last Sunday (now 66-1-1). Additionally teams leading by 17 or more in a game against a team that does not record an offensive touchdown? 1-302 (0.3%). We defied the odds last week. Hopefully we get on track week two.
College Football Best Bets (9/14/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | September 14, 2024 | 9:36 A.M. CST
Since it’s late I’m going to just post the three plays without breakdowns below. Best of luck today
Best Bets:
Tulsa +18 vs. Oklahoma State = 2 Star
Ball State @ Miami OVER 54 = 2 Star
North Texas @ Texas Tech OVER 68.5 = 1 Star
EDIT @ 4:32 P.M. CST
Best Bets Late Games (Additions):
Indiana -3 vs. UCLA = 1 Star
Hawaii +4.5 vs. Sam Houston State = 1 Star
South Florida -11 vs. Southern Miss = 1 Star
College Football Best Bet (9/13/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | September 13, 2024 | 5:43 P.M. CST
Game Summary: Kansas State -7 vs. Arizona (60.5)
I debated whether to give this play out or not. I initially thought I was for sure going to make this a play if I could get anything below 7. Right at 7 I was going to make it a 2 star, and I was going to pass at anything over 7. I was able to get an early week bet in on Sunday afternoon with K-State -7 at reduced juice (-105). That line moved to 7.5 mid-week, but it has since dropped back down to 7, meaning we’ve seen resistance in the market at 7.5
Best Bet:
We’re going to go ahead and take the Wildcats here as a home favorite of a touchdown. When I look at these two teams I see programs that were largely faded by professionals in the off-season. K-State lost their staring QB from the year they won the Big 12 Championship (Will Howard) to Ohio State. They seem to really like Avery Johnson, despite this, but Johnson is nowhere near Howard as a passer at this point in his career. Additionally there was large belief in the market that K-State’s defense would take a step back this season based on the production lost (not that they were great last year either). Arizona on the other hand, lost their head coach Jedd Fisch to Washington (which was a horrific idea to leave this team). Arizona had a ton of talent coming back, including 2 guys who ended up staying in Noah Fafita and Jalen McMillan (NFL level QB-WR duo). However, the departure of Fisch caused a large amount of the OL and other positions to depart for more money to bigger schools. Those losses on the OL were especially an issue for pro bettors that faded the Wildcat’s win total, and hammered the under.
Looking at the first couple of games for Arizona, one reason I really lean towards K-State is largely DUE to this new world of CFB we live in. When we see a team get faded in the market (like Arizona) and then the first two data points we get the data BACKS UP our pre-season belief, that’s when we start to fade that specific team. That’s exactly why I was looking to take K-State EARLY in the week before any line movement. Week 1 Arizona faced off against New Mexico, a team who was projected to win ONE GAME this season (lowest win total in the FBS). In that game the Wildcats gave up 39 points to New Mexico’s offense. Additionally, they allowed Devin Dampier, NM’s QB, to run it 15 times for 130 yards and 2 TDs. They specifically struggled to contain Dampier on both scrambles as well as designed runs. Ironically that’s EXACTLY what they are going to see from Avery Johnson this week (KST QB), who is DYNAMIC with his legs. In fact, Johnson is significantly better than Dampier and I think the Wildcats are going to struggle immensely trying to stop him. Then you look at Arizona’s most recent outing, where they faced off against an average FCS team (at best) in Northern Arizona, and TRAILED AT HALFTIME. They came from behind to win it 24-14 as 30+ point favorites, and looked unimpressive the ENTIRE game offensively. That’s a huge flag for me in terms of what this team could be going forward. If their defense can’t stop a nose bleed, they can get away with winning games with that offense. But if the offense has the capability of struggling like that against Northern Arizona, they could get blown out of the water by good teams.
I will note that K-State was not impressive whatsoever in their previous game against Tulane. In fact, Tulane really should have won the game, and if it weren’t for a SUSPECT offensive Pass Interference called at the goal line, that game is very likely in OT, and then it’s a coin flip. Tulane was honestly the better team for a lot of that game. However, Tulane has a lot of guys that returned from a good team a year ago. Additionally, despite K-State getting down early and having no rythm on offense, they were able to do more than get it going and ended up with a very productive day on that side of the ball. I was impressed with their ability to fight back and gut out a win on the road, in a tough environment, against a solid team. The biggest concern from my perspective was the secondary. They gave up 300+ pass yards to a QB making his second career start. But what I noticed watching the game was that was a product of poor communication and the secondary just busting. It wasn’t as though the talent in the secondary was so bad that they were getting beat. That tells me that it’s FIXABLE. And if you listened to Chris Kleinmann’s presser this week, he talked about cleaning that up. I think we will see a much better version of K-State’s defense this week as a whole.
So obviously we’re going with K-State here minus the seven. I’ll add in one more thing: playing in Manhattan is tough on any night, but it’s especially hard AT NIGHT. It’s even TOUGHER when you play them there, at night, and it’s a STAND ALONE GAME ON A THURSDAY. We check all of those boxes here. The K-State secondary is keeping me off this being a MASSIVE play tonight. But getting 7 still, can’t pass on this for a 2-star. Give me the Wildcats at home tonight to cover the seven.
Official Pick: Kansas State -7 (-110)
Play Rating: 2 Star
WNBA Best Bet (9/13/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | September 13, 2024 | 4:02 P.M. CST
Game Preview: Indiana Fever vs. Las Vegas Aces
Tonight the Indiana Fever take on the Las Vegas Aces in Indiana with big playoff implications on the line. The Aces are just one game ahead of the Seattle Storm for that 4 seed in the WNBA playoffs. It’s very unlikely that the Aces will catch the Connecticut for the 3 seed, as they are 3 full games behind them in the standings, with just 4 games to play. However, there is a legitimate way the Aces could fall to that 5 seed, which would mean losing home court advantage in the first round against the Seattle Storm. The Aces play at the Storm Tuesday and the Aces lead the season series 2-1. So a loss here to Indiana and all of the sudden we’re getting into 2nd and 3rd tiebreakers to determine who gets the 4 seed. On the other side the Indiana Fever currently sit in the 6 seed, just one game in the loss column ahead of the 7-seed Phoenix Mercury. That said., Indiana did sweep the season series against Phoenix, meaning a tie would go to the Fever for that 6 seed. The Mercury face off against the Seattle storm tonight, ironically, and the Storm are a relatively short favorite (5 points). A loss from the Mercury and a Fever win tonight would all but seal the 6 seed for Indiana, which could mean a lot if the Lynx clinch that 2 spot.
Best Bet:
Look the Aces have more than had the Fever’s number. In fact, the Fever have yet to beat the Aces during their short existence (0-14). They are 0-3 this season, with losses by 19, 19, and 11. So why would we be looking to back the Fever tonight? Well for one, this current version of the Fever is a completely different team than the one we saw get their butts kicked by nearly 20 points the first two times these teams faced off. If you watched those games early in the year, the Fever had absolutely zero shot. In fact, one game they were a +900 dog against the Aces. That was worlds different than the game we saw two nights ago in Indiana. The Fever were more than in the game until the final few minutes, despite Caitlin Clark having one of her worst performances of the season. Vegas obviously agrees with me, as we have the Fever installed at +185 on the moneyline and trending DOWN; a stark contrast to the number we saw two months ago in Las Vegas. The Fever are more than a live dog here
In their game the other night, Caitlin Clark went 6/22, and was just 1/10 from beyond the arc, while having way too many turnovers. Additionally, Fever starting Center Aliyah Boston, was in foul trouble the entire night. Although I’m not a believer that Boston is all that great, she is better than what she showed Wednesday night, going just 3/10 from the floor and scoring just 6 points in 28 minutes, while also fouling out of the game late. Kelsey Mitchell, the elite scorer for the Fever, was okay but shot below 50% from the field, and she’s been on an absolute heater prior to that game. Overall, the Fever played a terrible game on both ends of the floor. They shot just 39% from the field and 27% from beyond the arc; AND, shot below 70% from the FT line (which is highly abnormal). Meanwhile, the Aces had one of their better shooting nights of the year, going 45% from the 3 point line. Although the Aces do have some solid shooters on their roster, almost every player shot above their season average from beyond the arc. Even Kiah Stokes who was a 17% shooter coming in went 1/1 from three. Yet, with as good of a night shooting as LV had, and as bad as the Fever looked, this was a 5 point game late in the 4th. And it took a number of bad mistakes from the Fever to hand LV the game. I think the Fever bounce back tonight in a big way, and find a way to finally beat the Aces.
Lastly the number. I make this about a 47% win probability for the Fever tonight. We’re catching +185, which is implied odds of just above 35% (35.1%). That means we have roughly an 11.9% edge on this game. Which basically means this is an easy bet. We’re 100% taking this. I could even make an argument that with the spot the Fever could be favored in this one. So we will happily take +185 here for a 2 star play
Official Pick: Indiana Fever +185
Play Rating: 2 Star
NFL Best Bets (9/8/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | September 8, 2024 | 3:46 A.M. CST
Best Bets for Sunday, NFL Week 1 are below. We started off with a nice win with the Eagles covering the 2.5 in Brazil Friday night. Let’s try to keep the good start in the NFL going!!
Best Bet #1: Tennessee Titans +4 @ Chicago Bears
Look this bet comes down to numbers, which is what professional bettors like myself look for. When I look at this game I see two teams with very different public perception. The Chicago Bears were featured in Hard Knox this offseason. Everyone and their mother is talking about Caleb Williams and how he is the next Patrick Mahomes. And now in week 1 they’re laying 4 points against a Titans team that is in no way seen as elite. The public is obviously going to be all over the Bears Sunday morning. And that is just fine with me. There have been 27 QBs drafted 1st overall in the history of the NFL. In that span, those teams are 4-22-1 in that rookie QB’s first career start. That’s an 18% win rate. And in order for us to lose this bet, not only do the Bears have to win the game, but they have to do so by margin (4+ points). I just think there is way too much value here getting 4 full points against a team with a lot of new pieces and a lot of uncertainty.
I also like what the Titans did this off-season. The OL is clearly going to be improved, which will help Will Levis quite a bit. They also brought in Tony Pollard to pair with Tajee Spears out of the backfield; that could be an electric 1-2 punch if Pollard returns to 2022 form. Additionally they added Calvin Ridley & Tyler Boyd to help in the pass catching realm. One thing to note is De’Andrew Hopkins is listed as a game time decision for this one. If he goes, that’s an extra half point of value added in our favor, as I’ve factored him not playing into my pick. Overall the Titans and Bears should play a close game in week 1 and I think Tennessee is a live dog. We’re going to take the points and make the rookie QB cover a decent sized number.
4 points may not sound like a lot but think about it this way. The Miami Dolphins, who were electric a year ago, are playing at home against a team who missed the playoffs last season (the Jags). They’re laying less in that game (Miami -3.5) than the Bears are with a rookie QB making his first career start in week 1. That’s wild from a value/numbers perspective.
Official Pick: Tennessee Titans +4 (-110)
Play Rating: 2 Star (1%)
Best Bet #2: Teaser (2 Team, 6 Point): Bengals -1.5 | Seahawks -6
So I’m going to be straight with anyone reading this. My numbers say this is not the best valued teaser. The highest +EV teaser on the board this week (according to my model) was the Bengals -1.5 and the Cowboys +8.5. Giants +8.5 was a close second (to pair with Bengals). So why am I not taking one of those teams? Usually I would stick to my numbers, but you have to factor in situational elements that the numbers cannot.
And what I mean by that is Bo Nix making his first career start ON THE ROAD, in one of the toughest places to play in the NFL. Seattle has the best home field advantage in the NFL and it’s by far the loudest stadium. Bo Nix was outstanding in the pre-season, but that was using a lot of dink and dunk, short throws. Now you put him in a real game situation, against a legitimate defense, in a hostile environment; it’s going to be a different ball game, especially week 1. Denver does not have the weapons to help Nix if he struggles early in the game. Meanwhile, you have Seattle who is starting a new regime Sunday. Mike McDonald (former Ravens DC) gets the head coaching job in Seattle. He also brought over Jessee Minter to be his DC (Michigan’s DC last season). I really like the staff and I really like pieces Seattle has on defense. Additionally, you have a situation in which Bo Nix was still battling for the starting job well into preseason. Therefore, there’s a lot more REAL film on him and the Broncos offense than there would normally be with a team that had an established starting QB. I think McDaniel will use that film and the extra time he’s had to prep for this game to come up with a great plan to stifle Bo Nix. I will say, I don’t love the idea of going from 6 to PK. Theoretically you want to try to go through the 7 and the 3 on all teasers. But in this specific situation I’m going to going 6 to PK with Seattle. 6 has become a secondary key number with the extra point moved back and the way some teams tend to go for 2 when cutting into 2 score deficits late in games.
Additionally, I just can’t trust the NFC East outside of Phili right now. There’s just too much uncertainty in the Cowboys game to be frank. Trevon Diggs coming back from an ACL tear + Deron Bland out for the first 6-8 weeks. The secondary could be in for a long day if DeShaun Watson looks semi healthy. The game is also in Cleveland, where the Browns defense tended to be elite last year. The other possible leg, the NY Giants; well if I can’t trust Dallas, I can’t trust NY. Dan Jones back from injury, but it did not look good in the preseason. Yes it’s in NY and yes it’s Sam Darnold starting for Minnesota. But do you remember Dallas vs. NY last season? That game was in NY and it was damn near 40-0 in the first half. There’s just a part of me that believes Justin Jefferson could go nuclear or Dan Jones could throw a late pick six to get backdoored.
Overall, I’m going to go with my highest confidence sides here in our teaser of the week and that’s going to be with the Bengals and the Seahawks. I know I didn’t mention the Bengals, but that’s because they are playing the Patriots. The Pats are starting Jacoby Brissett at QB, and they may be bolstering the worst offensive line in all of football. Yes, the Bengals have not been good early in the season in past years, and Jamar Chase may not be full go in this one, but I find it hard to believe New England, who’s win total is 4.5, goes into Cinci and wins outright. In which case I’ll take Cinci in this one to get it done.
OFFICIAL PICK: Bengals -1.5 + Seahawks PK (-110)
Play Rating: 2 Star (1%)
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Current NFL Record: 1-0
College Football Best Bets (9/7/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | September 7, 2024 | 2:47 A.M. CST
Best Bets Week 2:
1) South Alabama vs. Ohio Over 56
Week 1 was very telling for both these teams. South Alabama lost a shootout at home to North Texas, a game in which there were a total of 90 (yes NINETY) points scored in regulation (52-38). Even in defeat, Jaguar’s starting QB Gio Lopez was incredibly impressive. He threw for 432 yards, 4 TDs, and no picks in the loss, while rushing for over 60 yards and another TD on the ground. The run game as a whole racked up 150 yards, and was efficient in doing so. On the other hand their defense was about as BAD as it gets. Chandler Morris, who was an average QB AT BEST at TCU, threw for over 400 yards, 3 TDs, and no picks, while posting a 91 QBR. The Jags Defense had no answers for the passing attack of the Mean Green. And the result was NT hanging half a hundred on the Jags ON THE ROAD.
Ohio on the other hand played a Power 4 opponent in Syracuse on the road, falling 22-38 in a high scoring affair as well. Last season the Orange did not have a single game in which their starting QB threw for 300 yards or more. In steps Kyle McCord, who was NOT good at Ohio State last year, and he slings it around on the Ohio Bobcats Defense for 354 yards, 4 TDs, and nearly 9 yards per pass. The Syracuse run game wasn’t great, but when you factor out sacks they still ran for 5 yards per carry on the Bobcat D. On the other side of the ball, the Bobcats ran all over the Orange, putting up over 250 yards on the ground. The pass game wasn’t elite, but did enough.
Overall, you look at these two teams and both groups I have a big down arrow on both their defenses from a year ago. Additionally I have a big up arrow on both their offenses. Both teams showed really well in week 1 offensively, but gave up a ton of points and yards on the defensive side. And then lastly, we look at the tempo of both teams. South Alabama was an average tempo team last year; this year with a new coach, they were 14th in the country in plays per minute in week 1 (playing MUCH faster = good for the over). Similarly, Ohio has been one of the SLOWEST teams in the country over the past couple seasons; this year, week 1 they went from around dead last in tempo to slightly above average (65th) in plays per minute. So you throw in the pace of both teams increasing, along with how they are trending and this is a solid play. Also note that there was a big sharp move on this total when this opened below the key number of 55 (that’s a very key number in CFB Totals). So now we’re sitting 56-57. There’s still value here at those numbers, as oddsmakers have just been too slow to adjust to these new teams with all the turnover that comes with the portal. Take the OVER here for our first best bet.
OFFICIAL PICK #1: South Alabama vs. Ohio OVER 56 (-110)
PLAY RATING: 2-Star (1% of Bankroll)
2) Texas Tech @ Washington State OVER 66
I normally prefer sides to totals, but sometimes it’s better to just keep it simple. Texas Tech and Washington State in their first two games combined for a total of 203 points. Wazzu beat Portalnd 70-30, while Texas Tech ESCAPED (and boy do I mean escaped) what would’ve been a devastating loss at home to FCS opponent Abilene Christian. The Red Raiders were HORRIFIC defensively in their game, allowing the Wildcats of ACU to put up a RIDICULOUS 650 yards of total offense. ACU’s starting QB threw for over 500 yards and 5 TDs, including nearly 10 yards per pass. TTU’s offense was just as impressive from a numbers standpoint.
Wazzu played a similar game as well, with their defense giving up 450 yards of total offense to a bad Portland team. They scored 30 points themselves, although the game was never close because Wazzu put up SEVENTY.
Look, I could give more stats here that all backup why this is a solid bet. The truth of the matter is this number is failing to adjust for what we saw week 1. Obviously we don’t want to overreact to one datapoint, however the defenses that trotted out for both teams were extremely subpar. Both teams play at a very fast pace, and both offenses put up over 550 yards last week. I don’t see a way this game goes under barring significant injury to either starting QB. Weirder things have happened, but I’m going to go with the simple approach to this one and stick to the over in an underadjusted market with two bad defenses, and high powered offenses. Give me OVER in this matchup in Pullman (also the weather is perfect there tomorrow night).
OFFICIAL PICK #2: TTU @ Washington State OVER 66 (-110)
PLAY RATING: 2-Star (1% Bankroll)
3) Northern Illinois +28.5 @ Notre Dame
I was waiting for this to get above 28.5. Now that number is available so we’re going to take NIU here. They return 14 starters from last year’s team that finished 7-6 and won a Bowl Game. Additionally, NIU has not lost a game by more than this number (28). I like this NIU team and they’ve shown an ability to not get run off the field against teams like this. A couple years ago they damn near beat #8 Kentucky on the road. Last year they lost to Nebraska by 20+ but covered this number.
Additionally you look at the spot for Notre Dame. They are coming off a very emotional victory on the road over a top 20 team in Texas A&M. That was a HUGE win for this program and for head coach Marcus Freeman. It’s just a big natural let down spot.
I also did not like what I saw from Notre Dame’s offense last week. Riley Leonard just looked very average against an “OKAY” A&M defense. He threw for less than 150 yards and was lucky to not have thrown a pick (A&M dropped 2). Now you’re asking a team with a non-explosive pass game to win by margin? I’m not sure they can do that in this specific spot. They’ll improve as the year goes on, but right now I’m not sure they can. Let’s take NIU with the points. Especially now that it’s OVER 4 TDs
OFFICIAL PICK #2: Northern Illinois +28.5 (-110)
PLAY RATING: 2-Star (1% Bankroll)
IMPORTANT: Check back here on the website at 2 o’clock CST. If I add any games it will likely be by that time. Below are the games that I considered but ultimately left off my official card.
Texas State -1 vs. UTSA: Well I loved this play early in the week and I bet it at a bad number (-2.5). I fully expected sharp money to come in on the Bobcats following the unimpressive performance by UTSA week 1, nearly losing to an FCS opponent. Texas State played a poor game as well, but they were never in real jeopardy of losing. Unfortunately the market has completely disagreed with me on this one. That’s what kept me off this game. This was going to be a 100% best bet this week had this closed 3 or 3.5. Instead it moved all the way to -1. So pro money came in on UTSA. I still like Texas State, just stayed off it for a best bet due to the market move against me.
Baylor +15 @ Utah: Sharp money on the Bears, and I really tried to make a case for Baylor here. I think they SHOULD cover this, but re-watching their game film from week 1 against a bad Tarleton State team, I saw DeQuan Finn (new Starting QB for Baylor) look underwhelming. He made too many mistakes (2 picks vs a bad Defense). I just can’t trust him on the road in a hostile environment at altitude. Plus Utah is healthy for the first time in 2 years. I still think the Bears cover more than 2 TDs, but couldn’t pull the trigger
Oregon Team Total OVER 40.5: I just felt that taking TTU/Wazzu was a better play when it came down to it. Oregon’s offense will have a solid game. But their OL issues are scaring me away from making this one an official play.
Other Sharp Action I Considered or Played Small: Note these are NOT official best bets. Only best bets are the 2 plays at the top
Virginia +2.5 @ Wake Forest: Now UVA +1
ECU/ODU OVER 51.5: Moved to 54.5
Iowa State +3.5 @ Iowa: Now Iowa -2.5
Illinois +5.5 vs. Kansas: Now Illinois +4.5 (This one I considered)
NFL Best Bet (9/6/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | September 6, 2024 | 4:38 P.M. CST
Best Bet No. 1: Philadelphia Eagles -2.5 vs. Green Bay Packers
The first edition of Friday Night Football starts tonight in Brazil and we’re going to look to the Philadelphia Eagles laying less than a field goal. Phili hasn’t lost a season opener since back in 2020, and is 2-0 under the current head coach, starting QB combo (Siriani & Hurts). Meanwhile the Packers have lost 2 of their last 3 openers, with their lone win coming last year against a Chicago Bears team led by Justin Fields; a Bears team the Packers have absolutely dominated twice a year for the past decade plus.
Additionally, the Eagles just tend to be better early in the year and worse later. Whereas the Packers have been the complete opposite under Matt LeFleur. The last two seasons the Eagles are 10-1 in their first 11 games. And that included last year with a terrible secondary and without half decent coordinators. I’m not super high on Kellen Moore, but he does tend to have good starts to the season, then fade off towards the end of the year as adjustments are needed. So better to get on the Eagles early here.
Lastly, I just don’t trust Jordan Love yet. He was awesome at the end of last year, there’s no denying that. But it’s such a small sample size. Legitimately he had 9 good games, and 9 terrible games last year. Now you pay him 200+ million, and you have guys on that roster who have been much better at their position for much longer and have not gotten paid. I’m very curious to see how Love looks out of the gate. I think this Eagles secondary is much improved, and I don’t see the Packers torching the Eagles like they would’ve had they met at the end of last season. On the other side of the ball, expect the Eagles to run it right down the Packers throats and hit some deep shots. AJ Brown is going to have a massive year. Add in that the public is all over Green Bay after what they saw at the end of last season, and the fact that the books got killed last night and need the Eagles here. Everything here says Phili. I’ve loved this play for weeks, and it feels like an even better spot now the way the last week has played out. Give me Phili all day laying less than a field goal. There are some 2’s out there, but we’ll call it 2.5 for grading purposes. Shouldn’t matter much as long as we’re below that key of 3. Best of luck!!
Official Pick: Philadelphia Eagles -2.5 (-110)
Play Rating: 2-Star Play (1% Bankroll Bet)
CFB Week 2 Early Line Moves & Market Analysis (9/2/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | September 2, 2024 | 5:47 A.M. CST
Some early numbers I like:
Texas State -2.5 vs. UTSA: Did not love what I saw from either team week 1, but Texas State has a better QB by far. The game is in San Marcos which is a small advantage (but it’s something). I’m much higher on Texas State this season than I am on UTSA. And I’m getting the better team at home laying less than a FG so I like the idea of that. I believe we see a line move through the key number of 3 early this week.
Texas Tech vs. Washington State OVER 66: I couldn’t believe the total was this low when I saw it. It would be one thing to give up 40+ in regulation to a good team, but to a below average FCS team. That’s PATHETIC. Tech had no problem scoring though. And neither did Wazzu for that matter. They also played an FCS team in Portland, and they covered this number on their own (70 points scored). They also gave up 30. So both defenses looked bad against offenses that were much worse than the ones they’ll see this Saturday. Yes 66 is a big number with the new CFB rules (No stop clock on first downs). But barring some drastic changes in one week, neither team can stop a runny nose. So I lean over here strongly. I believe we see the over take money here, and close this line closer to 70.
Some early line movements I saw
Texas @ Michigan:
Line going into week 1: Texas -3.5
Opening Line AFTER Week 1: Texas -7
Current Line: Texas -6.5
So what this tells me watching this movement is that oddsmakers are heavily factoring in what they saw on Saturday. Texas was a 3.5 point favorite (3 in some spots even) going to Michigan. Texas goes out and wins their game 52-0 and looks impressive in the process. Michigan was very underwhelming against Fresno State at home on the other hand. And so the adjustment was large. However when Texas opened back up at -7, that lasted very short. Which means that there was a professional appetite for the Wolverines at that key number of 7. My guess is we stay at the 6.5 or 7 range depending on how the books want to play it. But it looks like if the number does get back to 7, it’ll get bought up by professionals very quickly
Other Line Moves:
Nebraska Opened -6 and got bet up all the way to -7.5. Lots of pro money on the Huskers. No surprising after Colorado failed to cover as 10.5 point favorites, and nearly lost the game outright to an FCS opponent in North Dakota State.
CFB Week 1 Review/Analysis (9/2/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | September 2, 2024 | 5:34 A.M. CST
Last Week Wrap Up:
CFB Week Record: 1-2 (Miami -2.5 = W, Texas A&M -2.5 = L, Georgia State +21.5 = L)
NFL Week Record: N/A
Summary:
Not that 1-2 is the worst week in the world, but that one stings after starting 1-0 with an EASY rocking chair winner with Miami -2.5 over Florida. The Hurricanes looked all the part of a top 10 team in the country. They were able to go into hostile territory in Florida and win outright by 4 scores (41-17). That game was never in doubt, and Saturday started off great.
Then came the bad: Texas A&M never trailed in the first half, and the defense was playing outstanding. Then when Notre Dame did take the lead in the 3rd quarter, the Aggies responded with a touchdown of their own to tie the game at 13 with 11 minutes to play. But they just could NOT get a thing going offensively. I will be significantly downgrading A&M in my power ratings after that performance. I was high on the defense (and they played great), but I truly believed that Connor Weigman was a better QB than that. Over his 1st two seasons with A&M he threw 16 TDs and just 2 picks; and last season completed nearly 70% of his passes in the 4 games he started. But he was HORRIFICALLY bad in this game. Threw for only 100 yards and two INTs, no TDs, while completing only 40% of his passes. It was one of the worst QB performances I’ve seen in a collegiate game in a long time, and it came at home. Had he just been serviceable in the game the Aggies likely win, because Riley Leonard for the Irish was terrible as well; he just didn’t make the big mistakes that Weigman did, and he used his legs quite a bit more (especially late). I can swallow the A&M loss. ND had a 3rd and long with 10 minutes to go in a tie game, and they were 1/10 on third down before that play. If A&M gets off the field there, probably a decent chance they win. Could’ve gone either way, and in the long run I’m happy taking a home team in a matchup like that; over the long run laying 2.5 there is profitable.
The tougher loss was the Georgia State game. The Panthers shot themselves in the foot about as often as you could, and still should’ve easily covered the number. Again we got out and got +21.5 and it closed +20. So there was significant pro money on our side. Early in the game Georgia State was inside their own 25 and the center snapped the ball as the QB was checking the play at the line; that fumble led to 7 points that GT was basically gifted. GT also scored two Touchdowns on 4th and goal, both of which would likely have been FG attempts had Georgia State been half decent on third down (allowed them to get inside the 3 yard line on 3rd & long twice). Both times GT scored on fourth and goal. All of those things going against us, we still nearly covered. The difference in the cover came on Georgia State’s lone touchdown. After scoring they went for two to cut the lead to 14. And on the play QB Christian Veilleux hit his WR in the hands for an easy 2-point conversion, and the kid dropped it. I knew right away it was going to cost us the bet, because that would’ve given us a 2 score cushion late. STILL Georgia State had a chance to cover on their final possession, and they moved the ball all the way inside the 10 yard line with a first and goal. After a 2 yard gain on first down, Veilleux was injured, forcing him to come out for a play, and forcing Georgia State to predictably run the ball with a backup QB in. They lost 2 yards on that play, which doomed the drive. Then on 4th and goal from the 7 they could’ve kicked a FG which would’ve covered for us, and instead decided to go for it and couldn’t convert. GT got a few first downs and ran the clock out and that doomed us to a 1-2 start.
As I always preach, it’s the long run not the short run. I’m never going to sweat a 1-2 week or apologize for how it went. I always shoot it straight, win or lose. Tough first week - I wanted to give out more winners than losers on the first week of CFB, but luckily we have about 17 more weeks of this great season, and there will be countless opportunities to profit.
Check out my early line analysis as well as my best bets for this week on the blog! Also check out the YouTube Channel (link on home page) for full breakdowns of picks for the week and last weeks games!
College Football Week 1 Best Bets (8/31/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | August 29, 2024 | 6:37 P.M.
For detailed video breakdowns of these picks, visit my YouTube channel. All three picks are posted there: Search Slobberknocker Sports on Youtube or click the link on the homepage of this website.
Details of Bets This Season:
For College Football and the NFL we will have 2 bankrolls. Each bankroll will have 4 sized plays, 1 star - 4 star:
1 Star = .5% Bankroll
2 Star = 1% Bankroll
3 Star = 1.5% Bankroll
4 Star = 2% Bankroll
Best Bets:
1) Texas A&M -2.5 (-110) vs. Notre Dame = 2 Units
2) Miami (FL) -2.5 (-110) @ Florida = 2 Units
3) Georgia State +22 (-110) @ Georgia Tech = 2 Units
Again for detailed breakdowns of my picks, checkout the YouTube Channel @slobberknockersports
Check back here Saturday morning at 10 A.M. CST & or 2 P.M. CST for any additional plays. Sometimes I add plays on here, but they are always posted ahead of time and time stamped on a new post. Thanks and good luck!!
NFL Pre-Season Week 1 Best Bets
Author: Dylan Lieck | August 10, 2024 | 3:34 P.M. CST
NFL Preseason Best Bets (Week 1: Saturday)
Best Bet No. 1: Seattle Seahawks -1.5 (-110) 1st Half vs. LA Chargers
In this pre-season matchup I’m mainly looking at the starters. Both teams will be without their starting QBs for this game, which strongly favors the Seahawks. Seattle will be starting Sam Howell, who started for the Commanders last season. Although Howell did not impress anyone with his performance last year, it was hard to actually evaluate him with an incompetent Head Coach and Offensive Coordinator leading him. Eric Bienamy might be the worst OC in the history of football, and it basically gave Howell no shot at success. On the other side the Chargers will be starting Easton Stick. Although Stick did start a few games towards the end of the year last season, I don’t think he’s remotely in the realm of Sam Howell. Stick was one of the least efficient QBs in the league in the games he did start. So big advantage with Howell over Stick. Additionally, the Seahawks look to be playing MORE of their starters on defense than the Chargers, from a team that already has a better defense than LA. That not only means a couple series for the 1st team, but also that the 2nd team will be in for longer as well. Because they are both units and both QBs are likely to play around a half, we’re just going to go with the 1st half. But I see a big advantage here for Seattle, at least early in the game. I could make an argument for the entire game spread, but I’d rather lay less points and not have to worry about garbage time. So we’re going Seattle -1.5 in the first half (did open at -1 and has moved half a point)
Official Pick: Seattle Seahawks -1.5 (-110) 1H → ½ Unit
Best Bet No. 2: Arizona Cardinals vs. New Orleans Saints UNDER 38 (-110)
Derek Carr is going to start, but I’d be surprised to see him play more than one series. And considering it will be his first series of the season, I’m not too worried about him leading a TD drive. Following that series we’re going to see a couple of young QBs, neither of which I believe will have much success offensively: Jake Haener & Spencer Rattler. We’re talking about a Saints offense that was horrible last season, playing with mostly their 2nd and 3rd units in their very first preseason game. Speaking of lack of production, on the other side for the Cards, Kyler Murray is NOT playing tonight, so we will see Desmond Ridder & Clayton Tune. Marvin Harrison is likely going to be in for one series, but it’s irrelevant since Desmond Ridder couldn’t hit water if he fell out of a boat.
Based on the QBs likely to play the majority of the game, as well as the fact that both these teams were extremely poor offensively last year, I think this game has a good shot at going under the total. Not to mention the majority of preseason games thus far have been quite low scoring, with the exception of the Hall of Fame game last week. We’re going to make our second best bet UNDER 38 in this game. Shop around for the best number, because some shops are still offering 38.5
Official Pick: UNDER 38 (-110) → ½ Unit
Wimbledon Men’s Final Best Bet (7/14/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | July 14, 2024 | 12:59 A.M. CST
Wimbledon Men’s Final: Carlos Alcaraz -145 | Novak Djokovic +115
Games Spread: Alcaraz -1..5 (-125) | Djokovic +1.5 (-115)
Set Spread: Alcaraz -1.5 (+140) | Djokovic +1.5 (-190)
Quick Summary Explaining Lines Above:
Just for quick explanation of the odds for those who are unfamiliar with how tennis betting works. The numbers at the top are the odds to win the match outright. So Alcaraz is the short favorite to win the match (-145) with Djokovic as a slight underdog (+115). The “Game Spread” is essentially a spread on the TOTAL GAMES won in the match. So who actually wins the match is irrelevant - it’s just the total number of games at the end of the match. So, say Djokovic loses the match in 5 sets, but he won two of the sets 6-1, 6-1, and Alcaraz won his sets 7-6, 6-1, 6-2; obviously Alcaraz won the match outright, but if you bet him -1.5 games you would lose the bet because the total games won would be 21-21 and Alcaraz was -1.5 on games. Lastly, the set spread is just the total number of sets won. So betting Djokovic +1.5 sets would mean you are basically betting Djokovic to either win the match or lose in 5 sets. If he were to lose in less than 5 sets he would lose by 2 or more sets, while you only have +1.5 sets on your ticket. And obviously vice versa for Alcaraz, as you would need him to win by 2 or more total sets.
Pick:
Okay so we are going to look to a line actually AWAY from all of those I listed above. I examined all of those and decided to stay away. I think the winner of this match is a legitimate coin flip, so if you aren’t sure on who to back I would probably just take Djokovic because of the price. You’re getting plus money in a coin flip, as opposed to laying a dollar fifty or so on Alcaraz. That’s also where the early money has come in, which you have to believe is mostly sharp. We saw it open Alcaraz -150, Djokovic +120, and it’s moved about 10 points towards Djokovic (-140, +110) depending on the book. So I do think I would give a SLIGHT lean based on price to Djokovic in the match. But it’s hard to bet against Alcaraz right now. He isn’t playing his best tennis, and yet he just finds ways to win these matches. It’s quite remarkable. He’s also had the tougher road of the two to get here, while Djokovic has had anything but a tough road. However, to underestimate a top 3 all time player based on an easy road would be a mistake - it’s not as if he is foreign to playing against great players; he’s beaten some of the greats of all time in Grand Slam finals numerous times. This match is also on the court where he is probably at his best. He’s looking for a record tying 8th Wimbledon Title. In terms of consistency, despite the easier road, Djokovic has definitely looked better. He has dropped just 2 sets the entire tournament, while Alcaraz has dropped at least one set in 3 of his last 4 matches in the tournament. He also had to come from behind just to beat Francis Tiafoe a few rounds prior to this matchup, as he faced a 4th set tiebreaker, down 2-1. He was able to win the breaker and rally to win the 5th set easily (6-2). But he was on the ropes against a much inferior opponent.
If I had to cap this, taking price out of it, I WANT to say Alcaraz because I’d strongly prefer to root for him. However, it’s hard to look away from Djokovic here. He seems to be more motivated than I’ve seen him in a long time. He’s got revenge on his mind from last year’s Wimbledon Final, losing to Alcaraz in an epic match. But I also think he knows that this is really important if he wants to win another major. Yes, he could still win the U.S. Open coming up next month, but when you are already sitting in the final, it’s hard to not think this is going to be the best chance you will ever have again. It’s not as if Alcaraz is going anywhere. You also have Janik Sinner on the uprise (Austrailian Open Champ) who was not 100% in this tourney. Medvedev is still playing at a top level as well. And Djokovic is 37, coming off knee surgery. He already had a rocky start to the year. This may very well be his last, best chance at winning a major. And it PROBABLY is his last chance at winning it all here at Wimbledon. So I’m going to say take Djokovic in the match IF you are looking to bet a winner. HOWEVER, that’s not my best bet.
My best bet is actually going to be on NOVAK DJOKOVIC to win the FIRST SET at +105, and here is why. I do think Djokovic is going to win this match. However, I also think there’s a decent chance that this match goes 5 sets. I’d be absolutely SHOCKED if it went less than 4. The only way that happens is if Djokovic is forced to retire due to injury - which is very unlikely. I also know that considering Djokovic’s age and health concerns, if he were to lose the first set, I think it’s pretty unlikely that he ends up winning the match. I think he also KNOWS this - the first set is going to be vitally important to him, and I believe he’s going to play that first set like it’s a 5th set at Wimbledon. He’s going to give it everything to take a lead in this match. That’s not TRADITIONALLY how Novak starts - he tends to start slow at times. But he has been pretty darn consistent in this tournament. Alcaraz on the other hand has really struggled early in matches and he’s been erratic at times. Multiple times he’s come out and lost the first set late in this tourney (Tiafoe, Tommy Paul, Medvedev). He even mentioned that he was nervous when he came out against Medvedev in the semis, as he went on to lose that first set. So I just believe that the first set favors Novak significantly. We also have the fact that he’s the best breaker player in history - so if he just doesn’t get broke in the first set, we have a very good shot at winning. If he ends up breaking Alcaraz once I’m almost certain he wins the first set without a breaker. Additionally, Alcarazy still won all those matches in which he lost the first set. So rather than relying on an older Novak with a surgically repaired knee to play 4-5 full sets and deliver for us, I’m going to back him early. Try to cash the ticket before 9 o’clock central time, and enjoy the rest of the match rooting for an Alcaraz comeback.
Official Pick: NOVAK DJOKOVIC TO WIN 1ST SET +105
Units: 2
WNBA Best Bet + NHL Stanley Cup Game 7 (Saturday, 6/22/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | June 22, 2024 | 5:58 P.M. CST
WNBA Best Bet: Phoenix Mercury +5.5 vs. Minnesota Lynx
We’re looking to back the road dog in the night game here on Saturday night, with the Phoenix Mercury catching 5.5 points. The Mercury come in 8-7, while the Minnesota Lynx have gotten off to a blistering 12-3 start their first 15 outings this season. On the surface, the line makes sense, with Phoenix a middling team (currently 4th in their conference & 6th overall) catching a little over 5 points against a team who is currently 1st in the western conference, and has just lost 3 games all season. However, the line is a bit inflated according to my numbers for a number of reasons. I make this closer to 2.
The main thing to take into account is Brittany Griener. Griener did not play the first 10 games for the Mercury this season, as they got off to terrible 4-6 start. However, since Griener has returned to the lineup, Phoenix has won 4 of their previous 5 games. Additionally, on the surface, it looks like a very good home team in the Lynx (8-1 at home) going up against a poor road team in the Mercury (2-6 on the road). However, the Mercury have played just one road game with Griener in the lineup, a game Phoenix won in overtime over Dallas. Griener is a huge difference maker on both ends of the floor. On offense she provides Phoenix with easy buckets inside, while drawing a number of fouls (and knocking down a high percentage of her free throws). On the defensive end she’s an elite rim protector at this level of basketball and a beast on the glass.
The Mercury did face the Lynx earlier this month (5 games ago) and Phoenix squeaked out a 1 point victory, 81-80. However, that was Griener’s first game back, and she played just 21 minutes (as opposed to 33+ on average the next 4 games). With Griener back in a flow, and Mercury finally healthy I believe we’re getting some value here for a team that is playing much better basketball than their record indicates. I also have come to realize that homecourt advantage in the WNBA, especially in a regular season game, is highly overrated. Especially with the travel now being easier to deal with in the league, we’re talking about a slight advantage playing in front of home fans (who really don’t care all that much who wins if we’re being honest).
All of those reasons in mind, I believe we are getting some value here at 5.5. I could easily make a case for the Mercury on the moneyline at +175. It might be worth it to throw .2 units on them moneyline along with a full unit on the Mercury +5.5. We will stick with just the points on the official pick, but I absolutely believe Pheonix is a live dog here. Back the Mercury as they get the road dub for us tonight.
Official Pick: Phoenix Mercury +5.5 (-110)
Units: 1
Overall WNBA Record 2024 Season: 4-0 (100%, +4.0 Units)
NHL Stanley Cup Game 7 Best Bet: Florida Panthers ML (-120 or better)
The Stanley Cup Finals have been a whirlwind up to this point. The Florida Panthers came into this series as a short favorite (around -125 depending on the book). It was more than understandable that the Panthers were favored in this series, as they had looked like the best and most complete hockey team through the first three rounds of the playoffs. That’s not to diminish Edmonton’s run, however the Oilers had to come back from down 3-2 in the second round to eliminate the Vancouver Canucks. They followed that up with a series against the Stars where they trailed 2-1, before rattling off 3 straight victories. I felt that the price on the series was actually a bit short, largely due to the fact that most public bettors tend to lean towards the star-power of the Oilers and Connor McDavid. Thus, I put a decent sized bet on Florida to win the series at the -125 odds. I felt pretty darn good about that ticket after the Panthers hung on in game 3 on the road to take a commanding 3-0 series lead. But, in one of the more remarkable comebacks we’ve seen in sports, the Oilers somehow found a way to rattle off three straight wins of their own. And, thus we sit in a game 7, winner take all season finale.
Why Edmonton Will Win:
The Oilers have all the momentum in the series, and they come into game 7 with all the confidence in the world after beating up on Sergei Bobrovsky over the past three games. After allowing just 4 goals in games 1-3 (with two coming late in game 3 when Florida had a 4-1 lead), the Oilers have beaten Bobrovsky 18 times in games 4-6, making him look like a completely different player. Not only is the confidence high for the Oilers offense, but one has to wonder where Bobrovsky’s head is at after having such a rollarcoaster of a series.
Additionally, the Oilers have the best player on the ice in Connor McDavid. And, despite past years where if McDavid struggled to put up points the Oilers had no shot, they proved in game 6 that they can find different ways to win even if McDavid is held pointless. Additionally, the Oilers front line has given the Panthers fits in the past three games, and one could argue that the Panthers don’t have an answer for it at this point. The physicality we saw Florida display the first half of this series has all but disappeared in the last couple outings. And, if the stars show up in game 7 and are able to put up a couple goals early, it’s hard to see Florida mentally recovering from that.
Lastly, Stuart Skinner has been phenomenal in elimination games this post-season. He’s a perfect 5-0 in those elimination games(as are the Oilers as a team) with a save percentage of 93% (106/114). That’s 2.5 % higher than his save percentage in the playoffs as a whole. The defense has also been tremendous killing off 47 of their last 48 power plays. If Skinner continues to play that well in another big game, and the defense is able to hold Florida scoreless in PP situations, the Panthers will certainly need Bobrovsky to be elite, which he has not been the last 3 games.
Why Florida Will Win:
The Panthers have still been the best, and most consistent team throughout the playoffs. Their physicality is unmatched by almost any team in the NHL, and despite the fact that it’s dwindled the past few outings, it almost certainly will be a focal point for the Panthers in game 7. Physicality is something that Edmonton has traditionally struggled with, as the Oilers are more of a finesse team.
Although the Panthers offense has struggled the last 3 games, they have had no problem scoring in these playoffs against much better defenses than Edmonton. Add in the fact that Florida is back home, and that gives them a distinct edge in this game. Hockey home ice advantage is likely less important that most other major sports, however I do think it matters in this game. In the series the Panthers are 2-1 on their home ice, with the lone loss coming in game 5 (5-3). In the playoffs as a whole, Florida is 8-4 on their home ice. They’ve also not lost consecutive home games in any single series in this playoff run. The lone time they lost back-to-back home games came in between series (lost to Boston game 5 then lost to New York game 3), with three consecutive road games sandwiched between them. Thus, I do think Florida being at home tonight matters a great deal. Especially if they are able to get a lead early on and get the crowd into it.
Bobrovski may not have been great the last 3 games, but he’s still by far the better goalie in this series. He’s without a doubt a streaky player. If you watched game 1 of this Stanley Cup Finals you can see why he’s considered a top NHL goalie. Some of the saves in that game were absolutely absurd. It’s hard to imagine he has ANOTHER bad game, after surrendering 18 goals in his 3 previous starts. Additionally, Stanley Cup Finals Game 7s tend to be very low scoring (average of just about 4 goals per game). A grinded out, more physical game, with less scoring opportunities favors the Panthers and the better goaltender. If Bobrovski is on his game on Monday night, it’s going to be extremely tough for the Oilers to find goals, even with all the talent on the Edmonton side.
Lastly, the mental side of this handicap is overrated. Yes, the Panthers have blown an 0-3 series lead. And, yes they could be shocked enough to come out and lay an egg, especially if Edmonton is able to find the back of the net early. However, hockey teams are often very resiliant. That’s why we’ve seen teams down 0-3 in a series comeback and force a game 7 more in the NHL than in any other major sport in America. It’s happened just twice ever in the MLB, and it has happened just 4 times in the NBA in each league’s respective history. In the NHL it’s occurred 9 times (this being the 10th). Oddly enough, the team who blew the 3-0 lead is actually 5-4 in game 7. Teams who blew the 0-3 lead in the other major sports are 1-5. So there really isn’t any evidence to support the idea that the Panthers are at a mental disadvantage here. In fact, probably the opposite. One could argue that the energy expended to comeback from an 0-3 deficit is enough to burn a team out when they finally get to that game 7. Lastly, Paul Maurice (head coach of the Florida Panthers) is a perfect 4-0 in game 7s, and it’s hard to argue with taking a guy who seems to get the job done in big time playoff moments.
So Who Actually Wins?
I believe the Florida Panthers win this game. I don’t think it’s going to be easy, and I do think it’s going to be a very tight game (either a one goal win, or an empty netter late to make it 2). I lean towards the Panthers in this matchup for a lot of the reasons I outlined above. However, from a market perspective, this line is just priced incorrectly. The Panthers were favored in their first 3 home games of this series by an average price of -143. Now all of the sudden we see this line open at -115? It makes no sense from a market perspective, especially considering the fact that teams in this situation that the Panthers find themselves are 5-4. If that number showed some evidence that historically teams struggle in this spot, I could understand part of the adjustment. However, I believe the books know that the majority of the public is going to listen to everyone talk about Connor McDavid and the incredible Oilers comeback over the next 48 hours, and they are going to see a ton of money come in on Edmonton. Rather than take that money at +125 or so, they adjusted the price, knowing that would lead some pros to take Florida, and they could balance the money relatively equally. We will especially know if the public is on Edmonton if the line continues to trend towards a cheaper price for the Panthers. Because I believe that to be the case, I’m actually going to wait on this price to try to see if I can get it closer to -110 or -105 (maybe even money). But even if it stays at -115 or goes up to -120 I still like Florida in this spot, at a depressed price. We’re getting the better team, on their home ice. We’re getting the better goaltender. And we’re getting the best of a number. Give me the Panthers in this one at -120 or better, but as always shop around for the best price.
Official Pick: Florida Panthers ML (-120 or better)
Units: 1
WNBA Best Bet (Friday, 6/21/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | June 21, 2024 | 4:56 P.M. CST
Best Bet: Indiana Fever -2.5 (-110) vs. Atlanta Dream
Indiana is playing much better basketball than their season long record indicates. With all the hype surrounding Caitlin Clark, the Fever were put in an impossible situation having to play 9 games the first 16 days of the regular season. This comes on the heals of having less than one month of an off-season for a young, inexperienced Fever team. In the past couple weeks, the Fever have taken some significant steps forward. Part of this is due to their schedule easing up, and part of it has to do with the team improving and learning to play with each other. Aliyah Boston, who was quite possibly the worst player on the team over the first few weeks of the season, has finally played her way out of her slump. Additionally, Clark continues to improve her feel for the game as it slows down for her. She’s been significantly more efficient the past two weeks, compared to the first four weeks of the season. Add in Kelsey Mitchell playing at an All-Star level, and the Fever actually have quite a decent core. I believe they will continue to tick up going forward, and they will have a legitimate shot at a playoff birth.
On the other side, the Atlanta Dream have been hobbled by injuries over the course of the season, and they are still dealing with a few going into this game. That will definitely play a factor in this game. The Fever beat the Dream when the two played eight days ago in Indiana, 91-84. Despite the fact that Caitlin Clark had just 7 points on 3 of 11 shooting (and 7 TO’s), the Fever were still able to emerge victorious, largely due to Aliyah Boston (27 points, 13 boards). Assuming Clark doesn’t have a repeat of her worst game of the season, there’s a significant possibility Indiana actually runs away with this game tonight. When looking at the box score, not only did the Fever lead the entire game, but they won the first half by 15, while putting up a season high 59 points (in a single half). The game got closer than it really was down the stretch, largely because Indiana didn’t have good guard play that night.
I believe we see a repeat of the game between these two last week. Yes that game was at home, and the Fever are now traveling to Atlanta. However, Indiana is playing significantly better overall, regardless of location. And the Dream are too banged up to hang with this fast paced offense. I see the Fever having their way on the offensive end, and they will find ways to get enough stops to win this one comfortably. I like the Fever to win this game by double digits, so let’s lay the 2.5 with Indiana.
Official Pick: Indiana Fever -2.5 vs. Atlanta Dream
Units: 1