College Football Best Bets (9/21/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | September 21, 2024 | 2:17 A.M. CST
All three underdogs on Friday night covered the spread with ease. And if Washington State hadn’t pulled off a crazy comeback late to win in double OT, we’d have had 3 9+ point dogs winning outright last night! Crazy night, let’s see what week 4 brings us!
Best Bets For Saturday:
Top Play of the Week: TCU -2 @ SMU | 4-Star (2% of Bankroll)
TCU comes into this one off a brutal loss in week 3. The Horned Frogs led by as many as 21 in the second half at home against UCF, a game where they took professional money to close this line as a 3 point favorite. It looked like an easy win, but UCF finally found their offense early in the second half. After an incredible comeback, the Knights trailed by 6 on their final drive, but scored a TD and tacked on the extra point to take the lead. TCU had one last shot and got into longshot field goal range, but they were unable to convert on a 58-yard try as time expired.
I’m glad TCU lost that game, because if they hold onto that early lead and win last week going away, I’m not sure what this line is (closer to 6). Now look I understand, you can’t just discount an entire half football. However, TCU was the BETTER TEAM for the majority of that game against UCF. I really like what Josh Hoover has done his first three starts this year. The kid threw for over 270, over 350, and over 400 in his three starts, he’s thrown 8 TDs and has ZERO picks. TO’s were a big issue for him in his snaps last year, but he looks to have cleaned that up.
I definitely do like what TCU has shown offensively, but the main reason I LOVE this matchup is because I’ve HATED what I’ve seen from SMU this season. The Pony Express decided to bench their starting QB Preston Stone, who led them to one of their best seasons in DECADES last year. Instead they’ve gone to a 3rd year guy in Kevin Jennings. The kid is supposedly a great leader, and beloved by his teammates. That’s great and all, but he’s a HUGE downgrade from Stone. This move is actually baffling to me. I know Stone is coming off a big injury at the end of last season, but to bench him in favor of Jennings is going to cost SMU their season. Just last week, SMU was upset, AT HOME, vs. BYU as a double digit favorite. The offense mustered up just 15 points against a BYU team picked to finish dead last in the Big 12. Jennings was 14/32., 140 yards, and an INT. He was horrific. SMU had no business losing that game to an inferior BYU team, but the coaching decisions cost them big time.
Overall, I just see this is as a very motivated TCU team coming in, coming off that tough loss vs UCF. They absolutely cannot afford this loss. On the other side you have an SMU team clearly trending down, with a very poor QB, in what already feels like it may be a lost season. I just think these are two very mismatched teams headed in opposite directions (at least from an offensive standpoint). There’s been a battle in this game, which I do NOT get (meaning pro bettors have taken both sides). It must be because SMU’s defense is better than TCU’s on paper. But I truly believe this is a blowout. TCU 34 - SMU 17
The Remainder of the BEST BETS Below are ALL 2-Star Plays (1% Bankroll)
Best Bet No. 2: Georgia Tech +10.5 @ #19 Louisville: We don’t know much about Louisville. They’ve played absolutely nobody, while GT is much more battle tested. GT tends to get up for games like this. They struggle in games where they are the favorite. Hanes King has been a cash cow as a dog.
Best Bet No. 3: Tulane -120 vs. Louisiana: This line has come down and it’s freaked me out a little bit, but what I’ve learned is that the market has become flooded with guys who don’t know football, and they PURELY take numbers based on analytics and perceived value. I can’t imagine anyone looking at this game from a coaching perspective or from an eye test perspective and thinking Louisiana is the side. Tulane has the better coach. The better Strength of Schedule. The more talented roster. Give me Tulane here EVERY DAY of the week, and twice on Saturday.
Best Bet No. 4: Louisiana Tech -2.5 @ Tulsa: LT opened as a 1 point dog, and now they are sitting as a near field goal favorite. Why? Because everyone saw what I saw last week, which was that Tulsa may have the worst secondary/pass defense in the country. And they’re playing a team who throws the ball more than any team in the country in LT, who also just had NC State on the ropes in Raleigh. Give me LA Tech here in this spot to win by 3 or more.
Best Bet No. 5: Buffalo +14 @ NIU: This one is simple. Fade the coach who has been incredibly inconsistent over the course of his career as a head coach, coming off the biggest win of his coaching career. We’re catching 2 TDs here and it actually wouldn’t shock me if Buffalo won this game outright. Last time we saw NIU, they were taking down top 10 ranked Notre Dame in South Bend. They were a 28 point dog in that game where they believed nobody gave them a shot to even compete. Now think about the situation now, just 2 weeks later in their next game. They’re now RANKED in the top 25 for the first time in who knows how long (maybe ever). And they are playing below average Buffalo team. HUGE Let down spot. Throw in that NIU’s head coach is 0-4 off a bye. Give me Buffalo and grab this as quick as possible because those 14s are disappearing from the market if you catch my drift
Best Bet No. 6: Rutgers +3.5 @ Virginia Tech: Greg Schiano with an extra week to prepare has been something you want to be on the right side of historically. It’s going to be really tough sledding offensively for a VT team that really looked subpar against a BAD Old Dominion team last week. I don’t know if everyone was just wrong about this VT team, but I’ve seen them play multiple times now, and nothing about them is remotely impressive. They were lucky to even get back in the Vanderbilt game. Should’ve lost by 2 TDs. Now they’re laying 3.5 against a much better team than Vandy, off a bye, with a superior coach? Don’t love Rutgers QB or offense, but I can’t pass up Schiano in this spot. Wish we were catching more like 5.5 but I’ll still take it at 3.5
Best Bet No. 7: UCONN -120 (ML) vs. FAU: FAU nearly pulled off a big upset over Michigan State in East Lansing week 1. If you didn’t know, MSU is not good this year, so even had they won that game, it’s unlikely I would feel any different here in this spot. Last week FAU played their in state rival Florida International. If you look at the final score you’d think FAU probably dominated the game. That’s far from the truth. In fact, FIU outgained FAU on a yards per pass, per rush, and overall per play. However, FIU turned the ball over 5 times and FAU didn’t turn it over once. That is what led to the lopsided outcome, despite FAU not playing very well. I’m not a fan of Tom Herman whatsoever. I backed him and FAU once last year in a similar spot to this and they got smashed. W’ere fading Tom Herman and the Owls here, and we’re actually taking the UCONN Huskies for a best bet. Can’t believe I’m saying this but lay the small juice on the ML and back UCONN to win this one.
Remember these are all my best bets, and besides the top play, these other ones are all 2-stars.
ML Dog Parlay of the Week:
Utah over Oki State, Arkansas over Auburn, Houston over Cinci
1U —> +1030 odds
Below Are Just A few Plays from other sharp bettors as well as some plays that barely missed my card. The following plays are NOT official, just some things I considered betting or put a few bucks on.
East Carolina +7.5, Vanderbilt +21/+20, Arkansas +3 or better, South Florida +17, Illinois +9, Stanford +9, SJSU +14.5, UVA -3, Houston +5.5, Michigan +5.5, Navy +9.5, TTU -3
