Best Bet CFP Round 1 (12/21/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | December 21, 2024 | 1:37 A.M. CST

Best Bet CFP Saturday Games: 2-Team, 6 Point Teaser: Penn State -2 | Ohio State -1

We’re going to go with a two team ML Parlay and take two big favorites. I normally hate doing teasers in CFB, but in this case, it’s worth it. I make the probability of Ohio State winning over 87% and Penn State 93%. Barring major injuries we’re going to see two blowouts. If you want to turn this into a ML parlay and throw Texas in there, you would actually get plus money. I’m going with the teaser, but BOTH are good options.

Official Pick: Penn State -2 | Ohio State -1 (2-Team, 6 Point Teaser)

Play Rating: 2-Star

College Football Bowl Game Best Bet (Alamo Bowl)

Author: Dylan Lieck | December 21, 2024 | 1:11 P.M. CST

Best Bowl Bet: Colorado -3 over BYU

Play Rating: 2-Star

College Basketball Best Bets (12/14/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | December 14, 2024 | 8:57 A.M. CST

Current Record: 13-3 (81.3%)

Best Bets Today:

1) Dayton +1.5 vs. Marquette: This is a pure fade of Marquette playing another true road game. The one true road game they played they were a 7 point dog at Iowa State and got pounded. Dayton has an underrated home court advantage. The public will be all over Marquette, and Dayton has a solid squad this year. They competed with some good teams in Maui, and they will pull the outright upset today.

2) Gonzaga vs. UCONN OVER 151.5: Gonzaga is one of the most up tempo teams in the country and they shoot an absurd number of threes. Additionally, UCONN’s defense has been porous so far this season, and I believe Gonzaga will exploit that. Both teams are very good shooting teams: UCONN is top 10 in eFG% and Gonzaga is top 70 as well. There’s a good chance this turns into an up tempo game because UCONN will often morph to it’s opponents style and the Zags want to get up and down.

3) Depaul -3.5 vs. Wichita State: Wichita State comes into this game with just 1 loss this season, but they’ve played one of the easier schedules in the country. They beat a bad St. Louis team easily in the Hall of Fame Classic, and followed it up with a win over a bottom 5 Big 10 team in Minnesota, and needed OT to beat them. The one team they played with a pulse was Florida, and the Gators DESTROYED them 88-51. Depaul hasn’t been great by any means, but the amount they’ve improved this year under first year head coach Chris Holtman is significant. They started the season 8-0, but dropped their last two games to Texas Tech and Providence. Although Tech did beat them easily, the Providence game went to overtime. And that Providence team is nothing to laugh at. This is a good bounce back spot for Depaul. They’re playing at home, and I think they get it done laying a short number. This will be a big win for Holtman and company. Take Depaul and lay the 3.5

All Plays: 2-Star

College Basketball Best Bet (12/12/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | December 12, 2024 | 3:04 P.M. CST

Best Bet: Iowa Hawkeyes +5.5 vs. Iowa State Cyclones

So we’re going to look to the home dog in the Iowa Hawkeyes in this rivalry tonight. This is a rivalry that has largely been dominated by the HOME team in the past decade. In fact there’s only been 2 OUTRIGHT road victories between these two teams the last 10 times the two squared off. The last time Iowa State came to Carver-Hawkeye Arena was back in 2022, when Iowa State came in 7-1 (just as they do tonight), ranked 20th in the country; they lost that game by 19 points.

Now, while Iowa was actually a short favorite in that game, it’s a VERY similar spot here. Iowa has been very good under Fran McCaffrey at home. They have a strong home court advantage, and they seem to shoot better in their own building. And boy can this Iowa team shoot it. They have 6 guys on the team who are shooting 35% or better on the season (in the rotation). And that’s not including one of their best players in Payton Sandfort. Sandfort is off to a rough start this season, shooting under 32% from beyond the arc. This is a kid who has traditionally shot in the 36-37% range over the course of his career. Sandfort is a senior, and this could possibly be his final time playing in the Cy-Hawk Rivalry. It really wouldn’t surprise me if this ended up being a breakout game for him.

We’ve seen money on the over in this one as well, as both teams rank in the top 90 in adjusted tempo. Iowa plays EXTREMELY fast, coming in at 22nd in the country in adjusted tempo. Iowa State’s is lower because they make teams play very long possessions defensively. However, from an offensive perspective they get up and down as much as anyone. If Iowa is hitting threes early, this could easily become a shootout. I wanted to look to the over here, but once this hit 161 it was hard to make a case. That number is right about where it should be. At 159 (the open) I could buy it. Not at our current price. One good thing, however, is that if Iowa is going to win this game, it’s going to need to be that up and down, high scoring game. If this game goes under the total, by more than 10 points, that’s how ISU wins this by quite a large number. Therefore, I like that we’ve seen sharp money come in on the OVER to push this out to 162 in some spots. It supports the hypothesis that Iowa is going to be the pro side in this one.

Lastly, I looked into TJ Otzleberger’s time at Iowa State, and although he’s a PHENOMENAL coach and I’m a big fan of his, the Cyclones have really struggled to win on the road under Otz. And, when they have won on the road, it’s very seldom by margin. In fact, the past 3 seasons (Otzelberger took over in 2021 at the start of that span), Iowa State is just 11-19 straight up on the road (36.7%). Of those 11 wins, ONLY THREE have come by more than 6 or more points (which is what they will need to win by tonight to cover). Moreover, 2 of those 3 times they indeed DID win by 6+ they were actually underdogs. So, only once in TJ Otzelbergers THREE FULL SEASONS have the Cyclones covered a number this big on the road. I like those odds. Lastly, Iowa hasn’t been a dog at home all that often over the past couple seasons. But if you go back to 2010 Iowa has been a home dog 34 times; they are 20-13-1 ATS (60.6% cover rate) and 15-19 SU (and keep in mind that’s as a DOG). So they’ve been VERY good at home in the past 15 years, and I expect nothing less tonight. Take the points with the home dog, as I believe the #3 Cyclones may be going down tonight in Des Moines.

OFFICIAL PLAY: Iowa +5.5

PLAY RATING: 2-Star

College Basketball Best Bet (12/10/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | December 10, 2024 | 6:37 P.M. CST

Current Record: 12-2 (85.7%, +19.6 Units)

Best Bet: Arkansas +4.5 vs. Michigan

We’re going with the home dog tonight (Shocker). I do really like this Michigan team, and they have showed that they are legitimate contender in the Big 10. However, we’ve reached peak market on Michigan here, laying more than 4 points in a tough road game against a talented team. Michigan has talent as well, and likely a coaching advantage (Dusty May is phenomenal), but this number is too high. As good as they’ve looked the last couple weeks, their first two conference games were both decided by less than this number. They very well could’ve lost AT HOME to Iowa just a few days ago. Now they play a less meaningful game on a neutral floor in this spot. Additionally, this game IS meaningful to Arkansas as they need a signature win. They have not beaten a good team yet this year, and Cal is looking for that big time victory to get this season going. I believe they are going to treat this game as a big one, and I think they will be ready to go. I believe Arkansas not only covers this number, but wins the game outright. We take the points here in what should be a fun, close game, and hopefully we don’t even need them and the Hogs can win it on the floor. Take the 4.5 with Arkansas and let’s keep the streak going.

Official Play: Arkansas +4.5

Play Rating: 2-Star

College Basketball Best Bet (12/6/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | December 6, 2024 | 10:35 P.M. CST

Current Record: 11-2

Best Bet: Northwestern +3.5 vs. Illinois

We’re backing the home team here playing against a completely newly rebuilt Illinois team playing in their first conference road game. This is a hostile environment for a team that has absolutely zero chemistry. Additionally, NW needs this game like blood after a terrible loss to Iowa just a few days ago. NW was up 2 when Iowa hit a 35 footer at the buzzer to steal the game from the Wildcats. It was a brutal beat, and you can believe they are going to be motivated to show up here. This is a gritty bunch with some veteran guys who have been at NW a couple years. Let’s back the WILDCATS here plus the points, and sprinkle a little on the ML if you are inclined to, as we have a LIVE DOG here.

Official Play: Northwestern +3.5

Play Rating: 2-Star

NFL Best Bet Thursday Night Football (12/5/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | December 5, 2024 | 3:45 P.M. CST

TNF Game: Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions

• LINE: Lions -3 | Total: 53

Best Bet:

So full disclosure I got this at a better number than currently available, but I still believe there’s value at the current price. And, while I don’t normally like taking overs in divisional matchups, let alone a second matchup of the season, that’s exactly what we’re going to do here. These two teams come into this game with 2 of the BEST offenses in the league when fully healthy. Thankfully for Packers fans, Jordan Love is finally that: healthy. The Packers come into this game with their full complement of weapons on the offensive side of the ball. On the other side, the Lions have been healthy for the most part on the offensive side of the ball for the entire season. Hence why they’ve bolstered the second most efficient offense in football through 13 weeks.

What isn’t healthy about these two teams is their DEFENSES. Both defenses are extremely banged up, especially the Lions. And, while there may be some familiarity between the teams, it’s not enough to overcome the bevy of injuries on both teams defenses. We’ll start with the Packers who are down their best secondary piece for another week in Jaire Alexander. He’s their lockdown corner, and with him out they will be very thin in the secondary vs these weapons. Then add in Corey Ballentine (CB) and Edgerrin Cooper (LB) both out as well. The Packers are going to have trouble keeping this Lions pass game in check. While sometimes the Lions lean on the run game, especially early in games, I believe in this spot we see a very balanced attack from the jump

The other defense is currently being held together by scotch tape and Elmer’s glue. I mean there are injuries across the board for the Lions. They had to sign multiple guys this week just to be able to field a roster out there tonight. Obviously they lost Aidan Hutchinson multiple weeks prior to this game, and then Alex Anzelone a few weeks later. Those two are massive losses that will show up here, in both pressuring the QB, as well as in stopping the run. Then you add in three new injuries ALL to that defensive line in DJ Reader, Joshua Paschal, & Levi Onwuzurike. They are down to 3rd string guys on that DL. Good luck in short yardage situations trying to stop Josh Jacobs, not to mention the difficulty this defense will have getting pressure on Jordan Love.

When you look at this number in the market, it’s extremely high, but it’s that high for a reason. If you don’t believe me that the injuries are THAT significant think about this. The line when Detroit played AT Green Bay in BAD WEATHER a few weeks back was Detroit -3.5. We are currently sitting at The Lions -3 AT HOME. What that means is on a neutral field Detroit is probably around 6 point favorite if this game is played 4 weeks ago. Now on a neutral field this line tells us that it’s basically a PICK EM! That’s ABSURD! And the reasoning is ENTIRELY because of the Lions defense. So the defensive injuries for Detroit are so large that they have legitimately swung the line 6 points from what previously thought. Maybe even 7 given how good Detroit has been this year. Interestingly, if you look at these teams when healthy, the power numbers put Detroit as a much bigger favorite than 3 points (as I just said), yet there has been NO professional support for the Lions in the market. Why? Because nobody wants to back that defense in its current form.

I don’t even think either offense has to bring their “A” games tonight to put up 28+ points, which is roughly what we’re going to need from each to go over this total. As much as I dislike overs in primetime games, as well as in divisional games, in this SPECIFIC SPOT, this is too good of a play to pass up. We’re going to take the LIONS/PACKERS OVER 53 (good to 53.5)

Official Play: Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions OVER 53 (-110)

Play Rating: 2-Star

College Basketball Phenomenal Start

Author: Dylan Lieck | December 3, 2024 | 10:49 P.M. CST

Current Record: 11-1

Unbelievable start to college basketball! I won’t be posting tons of plays the next two weeks but we will hopefully get a few out here and there. Best of luck and don’t force anything!

NFL Best Bets (12/1/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | December 1, 2024 | 1:33 A.M. CST

Best Bets: Both 2 Units

1) Two Team Teaser: Pittsburgh Steelers +9 | Washington Commanders PK

2) Minnesota Vikings -3 (-120) vs. Arizona Cardinals

Best Bets College Football (11/30/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | November 30, 2024 | 4:39 A.M. CST

Best Bet #1: 2 Team Teaser = Notre Dame -1 vs. USC | Arizona State -2 vs. Arizona

I traditionally HATE college football teasers. Usually the variance in CFB makes them negative EV plays. However, with how some of these big favorites have trended I found some value in a specific one here. The first team is Notre Dame. This is actually the team I like the best to win outright. I just don’t see a world in which USC wins the game outright. If Miller Moss was still starting for the Trojans, this is a game I would completely stay away from. However, for some reason Lincoln Riley decided to make a QB change a couple weeks back. Jayden Maiava just is not a good QB. And I think his inability to pass the ball will be a big problem for USC. You just cannot be one dimensional against Notre Dame’s Defense. I like ND to win this outright, however they rarely blow out USC in this rivalry at the Rose Bowl. So that’s partially why I like taking this down to -1. I did give out ND -7 on the podcast, but I think winning outright is an absolute LOCK here. ND has much more to play for as well.

On the other side, Arizona State is a team that is peaking at the right time. They are playing to essentially go to the Big 12 Title game. It’s not a fully win and in scenario, but it’s close. And they are facing the team that I deem the second worst team in the conference in Arizona. Yes, it’s a rivalry, but I just would be very surprised to see this be an outright upset. I don’t really love laying 8, though, with a team like ASU who has trouble winning by margin. I could see the backdoor being open late with that number.

So we’re going to tease those two teams for our first best bet. I love this play. Barring big upset, we should cash this relatively easily. There’s a decent chance both cover the actual number.

Official Play: ND -1 | Arizona State -2

Play Rating: 2-Star

Best Bet #2 (Total of the Week): Kansas @ Baylor OVER 61

I’m not going to break this one down in depth because I already did so on the podcast. If you want a full breakdown, checkout my pick there, as I explain why I LOVE this game to be a shootout. Give me the OVER here for best bet number 2

Official Play: Kansas @ Baylor OVER 61

Play Rating: 2-Star

Best Bet Friday Night: College Football LIVE DOG!! (11/29/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | November 29, 2024 | 4:47 P.M. CST

Best Bet: Utah Utes +10 @ Central Florida Knights

We’re going to take the Utah Utes +10 here on the road against the UCF Knights. Look this line is just wrong in my opinion. Not that I think Utah is good WHATSOEVER, but this Central Florida team is horrible. When you have two terrible teams playing each other, you try to find an edge on which team may be more motivated. Especially in a spot like this where technically neither team has anything to play for, with both coming in 4-7. If you have followed the Utah Utes at all you’d know that Kyle Whittingham is BELOVED in that community and he’s been their guy for decades. However, at his age and after this disaster of a season there’s real talk that this will be his final game as the Utah head coach. There are rumors wirling that he will retire after the end of this game. That’s a HUGE motivating factor to his players who LOVE playing for him.

Meanwhile, UCF has been one of the biggest disappoinments in the country after a 4-0 start. Add in the fact that Gus Malzan is known to rub his guys the wrong way. Additionally, there is only ONE game all year UCF has covered this number in conference play and it was against the 2nd worst team in the conference, the Arizona Wildcats. This Utah team still has talent defensively, and they haven’t been blown out every game. They’ve been very competitive in a number of spots, especially in more meaningful games (think back to the BYU game where they had the game won and were robbed).

So this spot is great for Utah, and this line is just off. We’re taking the points and we’re going to sprinkle on the ML too because I think Utah is GOING TO WIN THIS GAME OUTRIGHT

Official Pick: Utah +10 | Utah +300

Play Rating: 4-Star | 1 unit on ML

College Basketball Best Bet (11/29/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | November 29, 2024 | 2:32 P.M. CST

CBB Overall Record: 11-1 (91.7%, +19.8 Units)

Best Bet: Purdue -2 vs. Ole Miss

Play Rating: 2-Star

College Basketball Best Bets (11/27/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | November 27, 2024 | 2:01 P.M. CST

Current Record = 10-0 (+20.0 units)

Best Bet #1: Memphis Tigers +9.5 vs. #4 Auburn Tigers

Tigers vs. Tigers in the Maui Invitational Championship game this evening. And yup, you guessed it, we’re backing the Tigers in this one. The Memphis tigers, that is. The Maui Invitational 2024 edition has quite possibly been the most entertaining tournament I’ve seen in it’s entirety in a long time in college basketball. It’s felt like every single game has come down to the wire, which is partially why I’m going to lean to the dog here. The first round was full of crazy comebacks including Memphis blowing a 13 point lead against UCONN in the first round in the final 3 and a half minutes. The Tigers actually got down 4 in OT, but they were able to battle back and find a way to win that game and advance to the semis. I was very impressed with Memphis’ mental toughness in that game. Blowing a lead like that and letting a HUGE upset win over the #2 ranked UCONN Huskies is not easy to overcome. Once UCONN took a 4 point lead in the OT period, it would’ve been very easy for Memphis to lay down, but they didn’t. They fought back and pulled out a win. That was impressive

It was also impressive that the Tigers opened as a 1.5 point favorite against Michigan State in the semis, and SIGNIFICANT professional money came in AGAINST Memphis, pushing the line 4 full points to MSU -2.5 at close. Despite the market love for the Spartans, Memphis handled Sparty from start to finish. They took an early lead, and never really let Michigan State into the game all day long.

On the other hand Auburn was lucky to even get through the first round, after trailing by 18 points to a very good Iowa State team early in the second half. The Tigers found a way to pull themselves off the matte and tie the game with under a minute to go. A tip in by Jonahi Broome with 2 seconds left gave Auburn the win. They followed that up with a much less stressful win over North Carolina, 85-72. It was impressive how the Tigers were able to easily handle a talented Tarheels team. However, that UNC team had no business being in the semifinals. They were getting dominated by a subpar Dayton team in the first round, and if it weren’t for a 20+ free throw attempt disparity, they never even would’ve got the game to single digits. The officials kept North Carolina in the game to set up the big “marquee” matchup with Auburn in round 2, but it turned out to be the worst game of the tourney. And, that’s not a mistake, as I believe UNC might be the worst team in this tournament. It’s between them and Colorado who has looked really good after a big upset of UCONN last night.

Overall I just think this is too many points. I believe oddsmakers are taking into account the fact that Auburn beat Iowa State and then was able to handle a supposed top 15 team in UNC. But the reality is that UNC is a borderline top 25 team, and Auburn was fortunate to beat Iowa State at all. Memphis has looked like the much more consistent team in this tourney. I also think that this line is taking into account the fact that Memphis is not a very deep team. And, when playing a 3rd game in 3 days that should come into affect (according to oddsmakers). But I disagree. I’ve seen plenty of teams with not deep rosters come into this tournament and win the entire thing outright. I can remember back to 2010 when Kemba Walker literally won the tournament by himself. I can remember a Gonzaga team a couple years back winning it all with very little depth. I believe this early in the season, a lack of depth and a belief that legs will give out is not a good assumption. These are well trained athletes at the peak of their physical performance and there’s not really a progressive fatigue aspect to account for yet this year.

For all these reasons, as well as the fact that I just think this number is way too high (I made this Auburn -5) we’re going to back Memphis catching the 9.5. It’s just simply too many points to catch in a championship game, when the Memphis Tigers have that much talent on their roster. Let’s go MEMPHIS plus the points, and believe me when I say, they are a LIVE DOG HERE! Go Tigers!

Official Play: Memphis +9.5

Play Rating: 2-Star

Best Bet #2: UCONN Huskies vs. Dayton Flyers OVER 146.5

Nobody would’ve believed you if you said the #2 ranked UCONN Huskies, who have won back-to-back National Titles under Head Coach Dan Hurley, would be playing in the 7th place game in the Maui Invitational. It’s shocking from the standpoint that this is the highest ranking we’ve seen the Huskies carry into the pre-season. However, it’s not shocking when you look at all the pieces UCONN lost from last year’s team. An absurd FOUR starters were drafted in the 2024 NBA Draft who played on last year’s National Title Team. Stephon Castle and Donavan Clingan were drafted in the TOP TEN in the NBA Draft, while Cam Spencer and Triston Newton were both taken in the second round. The only starter from last year’s squad to return this year is Alex Karaban. And, while Karaban is a very good player, he’s not used to being option number 1 or even number 2.

Now all that said, the one important point to make here, goes hand-in-hand with why I like the over in this spot. What made that UCONN team so special last season was their incredible ability to defend at a high level. I mean that team was ELITE defensively, and they only got better in big moments. Even Zach Edey, who nobody could stop, struggled mightily in that National Title game until late when they allowed him to get some easy buckets. But, that area (defensively) is where we’ve seen the biggest drop off from UCONN year-over-year. In fact, offensively the first two games of the Maui Invitational, they really have looked great. Against Colorado in Round 2 they shot 48% from the field & 39% from three, making 12 triples in the game. In the first round against Memphis they were even better, shooting 49% from the field & 47% from three, while knocking down 14 triples in that contest. The issue is that the Huskies allowed BOTH unranked Colorado and unranked Memphis to each shoot OVER 50% from the field and OVER 50% from the 3-point line. Those are ABSURD numbers for this program’s expectations. Most importantly, though, is the fact that COLORADO did that to UCONN. Not to say a two-game sample size is relevant, but the way Dan Hurley operates, I felt that if UCONN’s defensive woes against Memphis were fixable in the short-run, we’d have seen some major adjustments to their scheme. But that wasn’t the case whatsoever. In fact, Colorado actually shot BETTER than Memphis did and was more efficient. Now the pace of the game was slower, but they still struggled to get stops. My overall point being, I don’t see how this UCONN team (from what I’ve seen this season) is going to have any better of an effort here.

Also keep in mind, this is a program that has won back-to-back National Titles, and they have lost a total of ONE non-conference game in the past 2 seasons. They are held to an extremely high standard. I bring that up to say, I don’t believe UCONN just lays over here and we get a lackluster performance. I think we see them play well offensively, and at least give effort throughout the game. And since I don’t think their defensive issues are immediately fixable, I think that’s a good recipe for an over.

Dayton on the other hand has played some really high scoring games. Game 1 of the Maui Invitational was a BEST BET WINNER for us as we went OVER the total in UNC/Dayton. We got there easily as the number was just 155, while there were a whopping 182 points scored in the game. Game 2, however, they played a much slower paced, much better defensive team, in Iowa State. The total on that game went FLYING OVER the 142.5, as the two teams combined for 175. That means in Dayton’s two games here in Maui, they’ve gone over their total by an average of 30 points. THIRTY POINTS. Now, I will say this: there is a reason this number is in the 140s and not higher. And that’s largely because Dayton plays a very methodical style offense with lots of motion. And, while they’re extremely efficient scoring the ball, they can take the air out of it at times. Additionally, while a team like UNC will push the pace, UCONN is much more adaptable to their opponent. The Huskies have always allowed their opponent to dictate tempo, and they’ve just been better at any style you want to play. So that’s the only thing that gives me pause here from making this a HUGE 3 or 4 star play. I decided to keep this a 2-star rating.

All that said, this number is short according to my metrics. I officially made this number 152.3 exactly (going by my power ratings) and we’re currently sitting at 146 or 146.5 depending on where you shop around. So we’re catching 6.3 points of value here, early in the season with two efficient offensive teams who also allow their opponents to shoot the ball at a high percentage. As long as we dodge a slow start from the two teams, given that it’s the final game of the tournament and they’re really playing for nothing, I think we should get there relatively sweat free. Although sweat-free tends to not exist in the gambling world. Nonetheless, best of luck, have a great Thanksgiving tomorrow, and enjoy cashing a nice total on the over in the final game of the great Maui Invitational.

Official Play: UCONN vs. Dayton OVER 146.5

Play Rating: 2-Star

College Basketball Best Bets (11/26/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | November 26, 2024 | 4:07 P.M. CST

Current Record = 8-0 (100%, +16.0 Units)

Best Bets:

1) Grand Canyon +1 vs. Stanford (2u)

2) Kansas +4.5 vs. Duke (2u)

No breakdowns today, but will be giving more soon! Best of luck!

College Basketball Best Bets (11/25/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | November 25, 2024 | 10:38 A.M. CST

Current Record = 5-0 (+10.0 Units)

Best Bets:

1. Liberty -1 vs. McNeese State = 2 Star

2. Iowa State +3.5 vs. Auburn = 2 Star

3. North Carolina vs. Dayton OVER 155 = 2-Star

NFL Monday Night Football Best Bet (11/25/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | November 25, 2024 | 10:30 A.M. CST

We’ve been catching our stride in the NFL the last couple weeks. We’ve climbed out of an early season hole, and we are climbing back towards that 55-60% range on the season. We will attempt to keep it going tonight. Best of luck in all your wagers.

Best Bet: Baltimore Ravens @ Los Angeles Chargers

The Baltimore Ravens travel to LA off a loss here for the 4th time this season. The Ravens are ELITE off a loss under John Harbaugh, especially off a division loss, which occurred in their most recent game against the Pittsburgh Steelers. I really believe the Ravens will bounce back here, but they’ve got some key injuries to their defense that has kept me hesitant to back them minus the three. Roquan Smith (LB) is out. The Ravens are already thin at LB with star LB Kyle Hamilton to moving to Safety due to lack of depth at that position. That worries me considering those are their two best run defenders on the second level. The Chargers are extremely run heavy, and could very well attack that level of the field often in the short-intermediate pass game as well. All of that said, I think the Ravens are going to have a huge game offensively tonight. This offense has been HISTORICALLY GOOD before last week’s performance. And while it is a bit concerning in a copycat league, I don’t think the Steelers did anything all that new to the Ravens. It was a tough, road divisional game, and those performances happen. I would be shocked to not see the Ravens have a big offensive night here, coming off a 10-point outing.

With all that in mind, we’re going to look to a different market. We’re going to take the Ravens Team Total OVER 26.5 here. I’ve seen this juiced at -123 which is fine. Don’t take it above -130. I really see a big offensive performance coming here tonight. I wanted to back the Ravens -3 but with the defensive injuries I think we are better off going with this team total. There’s a chance they score 27+ and still lose. But there’s no shot they win the game scoring 21 points with their secondary and their defense in its current form. We used this type of wager on Friday night with UTSA over their team total and got there easily. Let’s go back to the well and go to the Ravens TT OVER 26.5

Official Play: Baltimore Ravens TEAM TOTAL OVER 26.5 (-123)

Play Rating: 2-Star

College Football Best Bet Friday Night (11/22/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | November 22, 2024 | 4:40 P.M. CST

Best Bet Tonight: Temple @ UTSA

Tonight we’re going to look to UTSA in the exotics market. We’re going to look at their TEAM TOTAL over tonight. UTSA has been playing at a breakneck pace the last 7 games of the season, averaging 24.1 seconds per play (15th fastest in country). So they are going to be attempting to go as fast as possible. And that tempo is not just smoke and mirrors, as UTSA has been one of the best SCORING teams in the country in conference play as well. And, they’ve only gotten better and better in terms of offensive efficiency, as well as overall offensive output. In fact, the last 4 games they have put up 48, 44, 45, & 38. Additionally, they’ve been much better offensively at HOME, which is where they’re playing tonight. They are averaging 43.3 PPG in HOME CONFERENCE games this season, which is first in the conference. The lowest scoring output they’ve had in a home conference game was 38.

Additionally, they are going up against a Temple defense that is one of the worst in the country. They rank outside the top 100 in almost every meaningful metric: Schedule Adjusted Efficiency, EPA/Play Allowed, Success Rate, Havok created, and more. They are just horrific defensively. Now, they did play better defensively in their last game against FAU, but FAU was one of the worst offensive teams in the country, and they had given up on their coach, Tom Herman, who got fired at the conclusion of the game. Temple’s defense the last 3 road games gave up 52, 56, and 29 (45+ PPG).

Now I would normally look to UTSA here, but it’s just not in my nature to lay 17 points. Also I don’t trust the UTSA Defense. So by taking the TT Over, instead of laying the 17, even if Temple is able to score here, we can still get there. I think UTSA hangs 42+ as they are trying to get Bowl Eligible on senior night in San Antonio. Give me the RUNNERS to go OVER the 35

Official Play: UTSA TEAM TOTAL OVER 35

Play Rating: 2-Star

NFL Best Bets Week 10 (11/17/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | November 16, 2024 | 11:41 P.M. CST

NFL Best Bets Week 10:

Best Bet No. 1 (Side of the Week):

Cleveland Browns +1 @ New Orleans Saints (2-Star)

Best Bet No. 2 (Teaser of the Week):

Texans -1 | Chiefs +8.5

Best Bet No. 3 (Teaser of the Week 2):

Dolphins -1 | Bengals +8.5

Play Ratings: All Plays 2-Stars

Best Bet No. 4 (Side of the Week 2):

Denver Broncos -2 vs. Atlanta Falcons

College Basketball Best Bets (11/17/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | November 16, 2024 | 11:54 A.M. CST

Official Record = 1-0 (+2.0u)

Best Bet Tonight:

1) Indiana -8 vs. South Carolina (2us)

2) Ole Miss -4.5 vs. Colorado State (2us)

3) Oakland +27.5 vs. Kansas (2us)

4) Nevada -8 vs. Santa Clara (2us)

Slob Pod Pick ‘Em Show Best Bets College Football Week 12 (11/16/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | November 16, 2024 | 4:34 A.M. CST

Slob Pod Pick Em Show Best Bets:

Dylan’s Top 4 Best Bets (23-11, +21.8u)

1) Kansas +3 @ BYU

2) Florida +4.5 vs. LSU

3) Clemson -10 @ Pittsburgh

4) Baylor @ West Virginia OVER 58.5

Uncle T’s Moneyline Dog of the Week (4-4 ATS, 3-5 ML, +2.1u)

Syracuse +290 | +9 over Cal

Uncle T’s Total of the Week (6-0, +12.0u)

Kansas @ BYU OVER 58

$1,000 Bettor Up $35,900 on our bets this season! Best of luck!