CFB Week 1 Review/Analysis (9/2/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | September 2, 2024 | 5:34 A.M. CST
Last Week Wrap Up:
CFB Week Record: 1-2 (Miami -2.5 = W, Texas A&M -2.5 = L, Georgia State +21.5 = L)
NFL Week Record: N/A
Summary:
Not that 1-2 is the worst week in the world, but that one stings after starting 1-0 with an EASY rocking chair winner with Miami -2.5 over Florida. The Hurricanes looked all the part of a top 10 team in the country. They were able to go into hostile territory in Florida and win outright by 4 scores (41-17). That game was never in doubt, and Saturday started off great.
Then came the bad: Texas A&M never trailed in the first half, and the defense was playing outstanding. Then when Notre Dame did take the lead in the 3rd quarter, the Aggies responded with a touchdown of their own to tie the game at 13 with 11 minutes to play. But they just could NOT get a thing going offensively. I will be significantly downgrading A&M in my power ratings after that performance. I was high on the defense (and they played great), but I truly believed that Connor Weigman was a better QB than that. Over his 1st two seasons with A&M he threw 16 TDs and just 2 picks; and last season completed nearly 70% of his passes in the 4 games he started. But he was HORRIFICALLY bad in this game. Threw for only 100 yards and two INTs, no TDs, while completing only 40% of his passes. It was one of the worst QB performances I’ve seen in a collegiate game in a long time, and it came at home. Had he just been serviceable in the game the Aggies likely win, because Riley Leonard for the Irish was terrible as well; he just didn’t make the big mistakes that Weigman did, and he used his legs quite a bit more (especially late). I can swallow the A&M loss. ND had a 3rd and long with 10 minutes to go in a tie game, and they were 1/10 on third down before that play. If A&M gets off the field there, probably a decent chance they win. Could’ve gone either way, and in the long run I’m happy taking a home team in a matchup like that; over the long run laying 2.5 there is profitable.
The tougher loss was the Georgia State game. The Panthers shot themselves in the foot about as often as you could, and still should’ve easily covered the number. Again we got out and got +21.5 and it closed +20. So there was significant pro money on our side. Early in the game Georgia State was inside their own 25 and the center snapped the ball as the QB was checking the play at the line; that fumble led to 7 points that GT was basically gifted. GT also scored two Touchdowns on 4th and goal, both of which would likely have been FG attempts had Georgia State been half decent on third down (allowed them to get inside the 3 yard line on 3rd & long twice). Both times GT scored on fourth and goal. All of those things going against us, we still nearly covered. The difference in the cover came on Georgia State’s lone touchdown. After scoring they went for two to cut the lead to 14. And on the play QB Christian Veilleux hit his WR in the hands for an easy 2-point conversion, and the kid dropped it. I knew right away it was going to cost us the bet, because that would’ve given us a 2 score cushion late. STILL Georgia State had a chance to cover on their final possession, and they moved the ball all the way inside the 10 yard line with a first and goal. After a 2 yard gain on first down, Veilleux was injured, forcing him to come out for a play, and forcing Georgia State to predictably run the ball with a backup QB in. They lost 2 yards on that play, which doomed the drive. Then on 4th and goal from the 7 they could’ve kicked a FG which would’ve covered for us, and instead decided to go for it and couldn’t convert. GT got a few first downs and ran the clock out and that doomed us to a 1-2 start.
As I always preach, it’s the long run not the short run. I’m never going to sweat a 1-2 week or apologize for how it went. I always shoot it straight, win or lose. Tough first week - I wanted to give out more winners than losers on the first week of CFB, but luckily we have about 17 more weeks of this great season, and there will be countless opportunities to profit.
Check out my early line analysis as well as my best bets for this week on the blog! Also check out the YouTube Channel (link on home page) for full breakdowns of picks for the week and last weeks games!
