NFL Best Bets (9/8/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | September 8, 2024 | 3:46 A.M. CST
Best Bets for Sunday, NFL Week 1 are below. We started off with a nice win with the Eagles covering the 2.5 in Brazil Friday night. Let’s try to keep the good start in the NFL going!!
Best Bet #1: Tennessee Titans +4 @ Chicago Bears
Look this bet comes down to numbers, which is what professional bettors like myself look for. When I look at this game I see two teams with very different public perception. The Chicago Bears were featured in Hard Knox this offseason. Everyone and their mother is talking about Caleb Williams and how he is the next Patrick Mahomes. And now in week 1 they’re laying 4 points against a Titans team that is in no way seen as elite. The public is obviously going to be all over the Bears Sunday morning. And that is just fine with me. There have been 27 QBs drafted 1st overall in the history of the NFL. In that span, those teams are 4-22-1 in that rookie QB’s first career start. That’s an 18% win rate. And in order for us to lose this bet, not only do the Bears have to win the game, but they have to do so by margin (4+ points). I just think there is way too much value here getting 4 full points against a team with a lot of new pieces and a lot of uncertainty.
I also like what the Titans did this off-season. The OL is clearly going to be improved, which will help Will Levis quite a bit. They also brought in Tony Pollard to pair with Tajee Spears out of the backfield; that could be an electric 1-2 punch if Pollard returns to 2022 form. Additionally they added Calvin Ridley & Tyler Boyd to help in the pass catching realm. One thing to note is De’Andrew Hopkins is listed as a game time decision for this one. If he goes, that’s an extra half point of value added in our favor, as I’ve factored him not playing into my pick. Overall the Titans and Bears should play a close game in week 1 and I think Tennessee is a live dog. We’re going to take the points and make the rookie QB cover a decent sized number.
4 points may not sound like a lot but think about it this way. The Miami Dolphins, who were electric a year ago, are playing at home against a team who missed the playoffs last season (the Jags). They’re laying less in that game (Miami -3.5) than the Bears are with a rookie QB making his first career start in week 1. That’s wild from a value/numbers perspective.
Official Pick: Tennessee Titans +4 (-110)
Play Rating: 2 Star (1%)
Best Bet #2: Teaser (2 Team, 6 Point): Bengals -1.5 | Seahawks -6
So I’m going to be straight with anyone reading this. My numbers say this is not the best valued teaser. The highest +EV teaser on the board this week (according to my model) was the Bengals -1.5 and the Cowboys +8.5. Giants +8.5 was a close second (to pair with Bengals). So why am I not taking one of those teams? Usually I would stick to my numbers, but you have to factor in situational elements that the numbers cannot.
And what I mean by that is Bo Nix making his first career start ON THE ROAD, in one of the toughest places to play in the NFL. Seattle has the best home field advantage in the NFL and it’s by far the loudest stadium. Bo Nix was outstanding in the pre-season, but that was using a lot of dink and dunk, short throws. Now you put him in a real game situation, against a legitimate defense, in a hostile environment; it’s going to be a different ball game, especially week 1. Denver does not have the weapons to help Nix if he struggles early in the game. Meanwhile, you have Seattle who is starting a new regime Sunday. Mike McDonald (former Ravens DC) gets the head coaching job in Seattle. He also brought over Jessee Minter to be his DC (Michigan’s DC last season). I really like the staff and I really like pieces Seattle has on defense. Additionally, you have a situation in which Bo Nix was still battling for the starting job well into preseason. Therefore, there’s a lot more REAL film on him and the Broncos offense than there would normally be with a team that had an established starting QB. I think McDaniel will use that film and the extra time he’s had to prep for this game to come up with a great plan to stifle Bo Nix. I will say, I don’t love the idea of going from 6 to PK. Theoretically you want to try to go through the 7 and the 3 on all teasers. But in this specific situation I’m going to going 6 to PK with Seattle. 6 has become a secondary key number with the extra point moved back and the way some teams tend to go for 2 when cutting into 2 score deficits late in games.
Additionally, I just can’t trust the NFC East outside of Phili right now. There’s just too much uncertainty in the Cowboys game to be frank. Trevon Diggs coming back from an ACL tear + Deron Bland out for the first 6-8 weeks. The secondary could be in for a long day if DeShaun Watson looks semi healthy. The game is also in Cleveland, where the Browns defense tended to be elite last year. The other possible leg, the NY Giants; well if I can’t trust Dallas, I can’t trust NY. Dan Jones back from injury, but it did not look good in the preseason. Yes it’s in NY and yes it’s Sam Darnold starting for Minnesota. But do you remember Dallas vs. NY last season? That game was in NY and it was damn near 40-0 in the first half. There’s just a part of me that believes Justin Jefferson could go nuclear or Dan Jones could throw a late pick six to get backdoored.
Overall, I’m going to go with my highest confidence sides here in our teaser of the week and that’s going to be with the Bengals and the Seahawks. I know I didn’t mention the Bengals, but that’s because they are playing the Patriots. The Pats are starting Jacoby Brissett at QB, and they may be bolstering the worst offensive line in all of football. Yes, the Bengals have not been good early in the season in past years, and Jamar Chase may not be full go in this one, but I find it hard to believe New England, who’s win total is 4.5, goes into Cinci and wins outright. In which case I’ll take Cinci in this one to get it done.
OFFICIAL PICK: Bengals -1.5 + Seahawks PK (-110)
Play Rating: 2 Star (1%)
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Current NFL Record: 1-0
