WNBA Best Bet + NHL Stanley Cup Game 7 (Saturday, 6/22/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | June 22, 2024 | 5:58 P.M. CST
WNBA Best Bet: Phoenix Mercury +5.5 vs. Minnesota Lynx
We’re looking to back the road dog in the night game here on Saturday night, with the Phoenix Mercury catching 5.5 points. The Mercury come in 8-7, while the Minnesota Lynx have gotten off to a blistering 12-3 start their first 15 outings this season. On the surface, the line makes sense, with Phoenix a middling team (currently 4th in their conference & 6th overall) catching a little over 5 points against a team who is currently 1st in the western conference, and has just lost 3 games all season. However, the line is a bit inflated according to my numbers for a number of reasons. I make this closer to 2.
The main thing to take into account is Brittany Griener. Griener did not play the first 10 games for the Mercury this season, as they got off to terrible 4-6 start. However, since Griener has returned to the lineup, Phoenix has won 4 of their previous 5 games. Additionally, on the surface, it looks like a very good home team in the Lynx (8-1 at home) going up against a poor road team in the Mercury (2-6 on the road). However, the Mercury have played just one road game with Griener in the lineup, a game Phoenix won in overtime over Dallas. Griener is a huge difference maker on both ends of the floor. On offense she provides Phoenix with easy buckets inside, while drawing a number of fouls (and knocking down a high percentage of her free throws). On the defensive end she’s an elite rim protector at this level of basketball and a beast on the glass.
The Mercury did face the Lynx earlier this month (5 games ago) and Phoenix squeaked out a 1 point victory, 81-80. However, that was Griener’s first game back, and she played just 21 minutes (as opposed to 33+ on average the next 4 games). With Griener back in a flow, and Mercury finally healthy I believe we’re getting some value here for a team that is playing much better basketball than their record indicates. I also have come to realize that homecourt advantage in the WNBA, especially in a regular season game, is highly overrated. Especially with the travel now being easier to deal with in the league, we’re talking about a slight advantage playing in front of home fans (who really don’t care all that much who wins if we’re being honest).
All of those reasons in mind, I believe we are getting some value here at 5.5. I could easily make a case for the Mercury on the moneyline at +175. It might be worth it to throw .2 units on them moneyline along with a full unit on the Mercury +5.5. We will stick with just the points on the official pick, but I absolutely believe Pheonix is a live dog here. Back the Mercury as they get the road dub for us tonight.
Official Pick: Phoenix Mercury +5.5 (-110)
Units: 1
Overall WNBA Record 2024 Season: 4-0 (100%, +4.0 Units)
NHL Stanley Cup Game 7 Best Bet: Florida Panthers ML (-120 or better)
The Stanley Cup Finals have been a whirlwind up to this point. The Florida Panthers came into this series as a short favorite (around -125 depending on the book). It was more than understandable that the Panthers were favored in this series, as they had looked like the best and most complete hockey team through the first three rounds of the playoffs. That’s not to diminish Edmonton’s run, however the Oilers had to come back from down 3-2 in the second round to eliminate the Vancouver Canucks. They followed that up with a series against the Stars where they trailed 2-1, before rattling off 3 straight victories. I felt that the price on the series was actually a bit short, largely due to the fact that most public bettors tend to lean towards the star-power of the Oilers and Connor McDavid. Thus, I put a decent sized bet on Florida to win the series at the -125 odds. I felt pretty darn good about that ticket after the Panthers hung on in game 3 on the road to take a commanding 3-0 series lead. But, in one of the more remarkable comebacks we’ve seen in sports, the Oilers somehow found a way to rattle off three straight wins of their own. And, thus we sit in a game 7, winner take all season finale.
Why Edmonton Will Win:
The Oilers have all the momentum in the series, and they come into game 7 with all the confidence in the world after beating up on Sergei Bobrovsky over the past three games. After allowing just 4 goals in games 1-3 (with two coming late in game 3 when Florida had a 4-1 lead), the Oilers have beaten Bobrovsky 18 times in games 4-6, making him look like a completely different player. Not only is the confidence high for the Oilers offense, but one has to wonder where Bobrovsky’s head is at after having such a rollarcoaster of a series.
Additionally, the Oilers have the best player on the ice in Connor McDavid. And, despite past years where if McDavid struggled to put up points the Oilers had no shot, they proved in game 6 that they can find different ways to win even if McDavid is held pointless. Additionally, the Oilers front line has given the Panthers fits in the past three games, and one could argue that the Panthers don’t have an answer for it at this point. The physicality we saw Florida display the first half of this series has all but disappeared in the last couple outings. And, if the stars show up in game 7 and are able to put up a couple goals early, it’s hard to see Florida mentally recovering from that.
Lastly, Stuart Skinner has been phenomenal in elimination games this post-season. He’s a perfect 5-0 in those elimination games(as are the Oilers as a team) with a save percentage of 93% (106/114). That’s 2.5 % higher than his save percentage in the playoffs as a whole. The defense has also been tremendous killing off 47 of their last 48 power plays. If Skinner continues to play that well in another big game, and the defense is able to hold Florida scoreless in PP situations, the Panthers will certainly need Bobrovsky to be elite, which he has not been the last 3 games.
Why Florida Will Win:
The Panthers have still been the best, and most consistent team throughout the playoffs. Their physicality is unmatched by almost any team in the NHL, and despite the fact that it’s dwindled the past few outings, it almost certainly will be a focal point for the Panthers in game 7. Physicality is something that Edmonton has traditionally struggled with, as the Oilers are more of a finesse team.
Although the Panthers offense has struggled the last 3 games, they have had no problem scoring in these playoffs against much better defenses than Edmonton. Add in the fact that Florida is back home, and that gives them a distinct edge in this game. Hockey home ice advantage is likely less important that most other major sports, however I do think it matters in this game. In the series the Panthers are 2-1 on their home ice, with the lone loss coming in game 5 (5-3). In the playoffs as a whole, Florida is 8-4 on their home ice. They’ve also not lost consecutive home games in any single series in this playoff run. The lone time they lost back-to-back home games came in between series (lost to Boston game 5 then lost to New York game 3), with three consecutive road games sandwiched between them. Thus, I do think Florida being at home tonight matters a great deal. Especially if they are able to get a lead early on and get the crowd into it.
Bobrovski may not have been great the last 3 games, but he’s still by far the better goalie in this series. He’s without a doubt a streaky player. If you watched game 1 of this Stanley Cup Finals you can see why he’s considered a top NHL goalie. Some of the saves in that game were absolutely absurd. It’s hard to imagine he has ANOTHER bad game, after surrendering 18 goals in his 3 previous starts. Additionally, Stanley Cup Finals Game 7s tend to be very low scoring (average of just about 4 goals per game). A grinded out, more physical game, with less scoring opportunities favors the Panthers and the better goaltender. If Bobrovski is on his game on Monday night, it’s going to be extremely tough for the Oilers to find goals, even with all the talent on the Edmonton side.
Lastly, the mental side of this handicap is overrated. Yes, the Panthers have blown an 0-3 series lead. And, yes they could be shocked enough to come out and lay an egg, especially if Edmonton is able to find the back of the net early. However, hockey teams are often very resiliant. That’s why we’ve seen teams down 0-3 in a series comeback and force a game 7 more in the NHL than in any other major sport in America. It’s happened just twice ever in the MLB, and it has happened just 4 times in the NBA in each league’s respective history. In the NHL it’s occurred 9 times (this being the 10th). Oddly enough, the team who blew the 3-0 lead is actually 5-4 in game 7. Teams who blew the 0-3 lead in the other major sports are 1-5. So there really isn’t any evidence to support the idea that the Panthers are at a mental disadvantage here. In fact, probably the opposite. One could argue that the energy expended to comeback from an 0-3 deficit is enough to burn a team out when they finally get to that game 7. Lastly, Paul Maurice (head coach of the Florida Panthers) is a perfect 4-0 in game 7s, and it’s hard to argue with taking a guy who seems to get the job done in big time playoff moments.
So Who Actually Wins?
I believe the Florida Panthers win this game. I don’t think it’s going to be easy, and I do think it’s going to be a very tight game (either a one goal win, or an empty netter late to make it 2). I lean towards the Panthers in this matchup for a lot of the reasons I outlined above. However, from a market perspective, this line is just priced incorrectly. The Panthers were favored in their first 3 home games of this series by an average price of -143. Now all of the sudden we see this line open at -115? It makes no sense from a market perspective, especially considering the fact that teams in this situation that the Panthers find themselves are 5-4. If that number showed some evidence that historically teams struggle in this spot, I could understand part of the adjustment. However, I believe the books know that the majority of the public is going to listen to everyone talk about Connor McDavid and the incredible Oilers comeback over the next 48 hours, and they are going to see a ton of money come in on Edmonton. Rather than take that money at +125 or so, they adjusted the price, knowing that would lead some pros to take Florida, and they could balance the money relatively equally. We will especially know if the public is on Edmonton if the line continues to trend towards a cheaper price for the Panthers. Because I believe that to be the case, I’m actually going to wait on this price to try to see if I can get it closer to -110 or -105 (maybe even money). But even if it stays at -115 or goes up to -120 I still like Florida in this spot, at a depressed price. We’re getting the better team, on their home ice. We’re getting the better goaltender. And we’re getting the best of a number. Give me the Panthers in this one at -120 or better, but as always shop around for the best price.
Official Pick: Florida Panthers ML (-120 or better)
Units: 1
