CFB Week 2 Early Line Moves & Market Analysis (9/2/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | September 2, 2024 | 5:47 A.M. CST
Some early numbers I like:
Texas State -2.5 vs. UTSA: Did not love what I saw from either team week 1, but Texas State has a better QB by far. The game is in San Marcos which is a small advantage (but it’s something). I’m much higher on Texas State this season than I am on UTSA. And I’m getting the better team at home laying less than a FG so I like the idea of that. I believe we see a line move through the key number of 3 early this week.
Texas Tech vs. Washington State OVER 66: I couldn’t believe the total was this low when I saw it. It would be one thing to give up 40+ in regulation to a good team, but to a below average FCS team. That’s PATHETIC. Tech had no problem scoring though. And neither did Wazzu for that matter. They also played an FCS team in Portland, and they covered this number on their own (70 points scored). They also gave up 30. So both defenses looked bad against offenses that were much worse than the ones they’ll see this Saturday. Yes 66 is a big number with the new CFB rules (No stop clock on first downs). But barring some drastic changes in one week, neither team can stop a runny nose. So I lean over here strongly. I believe we see the over take money here, and close this line closer to 70.
Some early line movements I saw
Texas @ Michigan:
Line going into week 1: Texas -3.5
Opening Line AFTER Week 1: Texas -7
Current Line: Texas -6.5
So what this tells me watching this movement is that oddsmakers are heavily factoring in what they saw on Saturday. Texas was a 3.5 point favorite (3 in some spots even) going to Michigan. Texas goes out and wins their game 52-0 and looks impressive in the process. Michigan was very underwhelming against Fresno State at home on the other hand. And so the adjustment was large. However when Texas opened back up at -7, that lasted very short. Which means that there was a professional appetite for the Wolverines at that key number of 7. My guess is we stay at the 6.5 or 7 range depending on how the books want to play it. But it looks like if the number does get back to 7, it’ll get bought up by professionals very quickly
Other Line Moves:
Nebraska Opened -6 and got bet up all the way to -7.5. Lots of pro money on the Huskers. No surprising after Colorado failed to cover as 10.5 point favorites, and nearly lost the game outright to an FCS opponent in North Dakota State.
