College Football Best Bet (9/13/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | September 13, 2024 | 5:43 P.M. CST
Game Summary: Kansas State -7 vs. Arizona (60.5)
I debated whether to give this play out or not. I initially thought I was for sure going to make this a play if I could get anything below 7. Right at 7 I was going to make it a 2 star, and I was going to pass at anything over 7. I was able to get an early week bet in on Sunday afternoon with K-State -7 at reduced juice (-105). That line moved to 7.5 mid-week, but it has since dropped back down to 7, meaning we’ve seen resistance in the market at 7.5
Best Bet:
We’re going to go ahead and take the Wildcats here as a home favorite of a touchdown. When I look at these two teams I see programs that were largely faded by professionals in the off-season. K-State lost their staring QB from the year they won the Big 12 Championship (Will Howard) to Ohio State. They seem to really like Avery Johnson, despite this, but Johnson is nowhere near Howard as a passer at this point in his career. Additionally there was large belief in the market that K-State’s defense would take a step back this season based on the production lost (not that they were great last year either). Arizona on the other hand, lost their head coach Jedd Fisch to Washington (which was a horrific idea to leave this team). Arizona had a ton of talent coming back, including 2 guys who ended up staying in Noah Fafita and Jalen McMillan (NFL level QB-WR duo). However, the departure of Fisch caused a large amount of the OL and other positions to depart for more money to bigger schools. Those losses on the OL were especially an issue for pro bettors that faded the Wildcat’s win total, and hammered the under.
Looking at the first couple of games for Arizona, one reason I really lean towards K-State is largely DUE to this new world of CFB we live in. When we see a team get faded in the market (like Arizona) and then the first two data points we get the data BACKS UP our pre-season belief, that’s when we start to fade that specific team. That’s exactly why I was looking to take K-State EARLY in the week before any line movement. Week 1 Arizona faced off against New Mexico, a team who was projected to win ONE GAME this season (lowest win total in the FBS). In that game the Wildcats gave up 39 points to New Mexico’s offense. Additionally, they allowed Devin Dampier, NM’s QB, to run it 15 times for 130 yards and 2 TDs. They specifically struggled to contain Dampier on both scrambles as well as designed runs. Ironically that’s EXACTLY what they are going to see from Avery Johnson this week (KST QB), who is DYNAMIC with his legs. In fact, Johnson is significantly better than Dampier and I think the Wildcats are going to struggle immensely trying to stop him. Then you look at Arizona’s most recent outing, where they faced off against an average FCS team (at best) in Northern Arizona, and TRAILED AT HALFTIME. They came from behind to win it 24-14 as 30+ point favorites, and looked unimpressive the ENTIRE game offensively. That’s a huge flag for me in terms of what this team could be going forward. If their defense can’t stop a nose bleed, they can get away with winning games with that offense. But if the offense has the capability of struggling like that against Northern Arizona, they could get blown out of the water by good teams.
I will note that K-State was not impressive whatsoever in their previous game against Tulane. In fact, Tulane really should have won the game, and if it weren’t for a SUSPECT offensive Pass Interference called at the goal line, that game is very likely in OT, and then it’s a coin flip. Tulane was honestly the better team for a lot of that game. However, Tulane has a lot of guys that returned from a good team a year ago. Additionally, despite K-State getting down early and having no rythm on offense, they were able to do more than get it going and ended up with a very productive day on that side of the ball. I was impressed with their ability to fight back and gut out a win on the road, in a tough environment, against a solid team. The biggest concern from my perspective was the secondary. They gave up 300+ pass yards to a QB making his second career start. But what I noticed watching the game was that was a product of poor communication and the secondary just busting. It wasn’t as though the talent in the secondary was so bad that they were getting beat. That tells me that it’s FIXABLE. And if you listened to Chris Kleinmann’s presser this week, he talked about cleaning that up. I think we will see a much better version of K-State’s defense this week as a whole.
So obviously we’re going with K-State here minus the seven. I’ll add in one more thing: playing in Manhattan is tough on any night, but it’s especially hard AT NIGHT. It’s even TOUGHER when you play them there, at night, and it’s a STAND ALONE GAME ON A THURSDAY. We check all of those boxes here. The K-State secondary is keeping me off this being a MASSIVE play tonight. But getting 7 still, can’t pass on this for a 2-star. Give me the Wildcats at home tonight to cover the seven.
Official Pick: Kansas State -7 (-110)
Play Rating: 2 Star
