NFL Pre-Season Week 1 Best Bets
Author: Dylan Lieck | August 10, 2024 | 3:34 P.M. CST
NFL Preseason Best Bets (Week 1: Saturday)
Best Bet No. 1: Seattle Seahawks -1.5 (-110) 1st Half vs. LA Chargers
In this pre-season matchup I’m mainly looking at the starters. Both teams will be without their starting QBs for this game, which strongly favors the Seahawks. Seattle will be starting Sam Howell, who started for the Commanders last season. Although Howell did not impress anyone with his performance last year, it was hard to actually evaluate him with an incompetent Head Coach and Offensive Coordinator leading him. Eric Bienamy might be the worst OC in the history of football, and it basically gave Howell no shot at success. On the other side the Chargers will be starting Easton Stick. Although Stick did start a few games towards the end of the year last season, I don’t think he’s remotely in the realm of Sam Howell. Stick was one of the least efficient QBs in the league in the games he did start. So big advantage with Howell over Stick. Additionally, the Seahawks look to be playing MORE of their starters on defense than the Chargers, from a team that already has a better defense than LA. That not only means a couple series for the 1st team, but also that the 2nd team will be in for longer as well. Because they are both units and both QBs are likely to play around a half, we’re just going to go with the 1st half. But I see a big advantage here for Seattle, at least early in the game. I could make an argument for the entire game spread, but I’d rather lay less points and not have to worry about garbage time. So we’re going Seattle -1.5 in the first half (did open at -1 and has moved half a point)
Official Pick: Seattle Seahawks -1.5 (-110) 1H → ½ Unit
Best Bet No. 2: Arizona Cardinals vs. New Orleans Saints UNDER 38 (-110)
Derek Carr is going to start, but I’d be surprised to see him play more than one series. And considering it will be his first series of the season, I’m not too worried about him leading a TD drive. Following that series we’re going to see a couple of young QBs, neither of which I believe will have much success offensively: Jake Haener & Spencer Rattler. We’re talking about a Saints offense that was horrible last season, playing with mostly their 2nd and 3rd units in their very first preseason game. Speaking of lack of production, on the other side for the Cards, Kyler Murray is NOT playing tonight, so we will see Desmond Ridder & Clayton Tune. Marvin Harrison is likely going to be in for one series, but it’s irrelevant since Desmond Ridder couldn’t hit water if he fell out of a boat.
Based on the QBs likely to play the majority of the game, as well as the fact that both these teams were extremely poor offensively last year, I think this game has a good shot at going under the total. Not to mention the majority of preseason games thus far have been quite low scoring, with the exception of the Hall of Fame game last week. We’re going to make our second best bet UNDER 38 in this game. Shop around for the best number, because some shops are still offering 38.5
Official Pick: UNDER 38 (-110) → ½ Unit
