Monday Night Football Prop Bet (9/23/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | September 23, 2024 | 4:37 P.M. CST

In this weekly article I’m going to give my best prop bet for the Monday Night game (or games in this case). Tonight there are two games, the Jags at the Bills & Commanders at the Bengals. We’re going to look to the early game (Bills/Jags).

Best Bet: Josh Allen OVER 234.5 Pass Yards

Look the Bills have definitely leaned into the old Sean McDermott days (pre-Josh Allen) where they were a heavy run, smash mouth football team. However, Josh Allen is still Josh Allen, and he’s looked like an MVP candidate through 2 weeks. Normally I’m not a huge fan of going over on passing yard props, especially not this year where the QBs have not played well at all across the board. However, this specific matchup is very adventageous to Allen.

The Jaguars have traditionally been a purely zone coverage team, however this year with a new Defensive Cooredinator, the Jags have become almost exclusively a man-to-man coverage team. The problem with that, is that Josh Allen EXCELS against man. 90% of teams zone Josh Allen because it makes him think and have to take what the defense gives him (i.e. tougher to make big plays, easier to turn it over). Now, could the Jags come out with a specific gameplan and absolutely go to heavy zone coverage. But it’s MUCH more difficult for a team that plays exclusively man to play a ton of zone with just one week to prepare. I think this is going to create a ton of issues for the Jags, regardless of what they do defensively.

Additionally, Jarrian Jones, the Jaguars best cover cornerback, will miss this game due to injury. So you have a team already in a mismatch against this specific QB, down their top corner, who’s already shown vulnrability to giving up big pass plays. I just think this number is a touch short. It’s based more on what QBs have done against Jacksonville historically, as well as the idea that this is a realtively normal scoring game. I love going over here so let’s go over 234.5 pass yards. I see -121 as the juice in most spots, you could take this up to 236.5 (according to my numbers).

Official Prop Bet: Josh Allen OVER 234.5 pass yards (-121)

Play Rating: 1-Star