NFL Best Bets (9/29/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | September 29, 2024 | 1:47 A.M. CST
NFL Best Bets:
1) Green Bay Packers -2.5 vs. Minnesota Vikings: This is just a sell high spot on the Vikings. They have been exceeding oddsmakers expectations all season thus far, and have looked great to the naked eye. And they absolutely deserve the credit they are getting. However, they’ve still are dealing with lots of injuries. Jordan Addison (WR2) is a GTD. Still no TJ Hockinson for the Vikings either. And while Darnold has been great so far, now he’s having to go on the road and do it outdoors against a team not named the New York Giants. Additionally, the Packers are getting Jordan Love back. They have played great without him, but with him back they will be so much more dynamic. If the defense can keep Jefferson in check this offense should be humming tomorrow for GB and I could see the Pack jumping on them early. I like the Packers at home laying less than a FG in a big let down spot for Minnesota after back-to-back big wins as an underdog
2) 2 Team 6 Point Teaser: Raiders +8.5 to Saints +9
These two teams are both off disappointing performances in week 3, and will be looking to bounce back week 4. The Raiders got embarrassed by the winless Panthers, a game in which Andy Dalton threw for over 300 yards and 3 TDs against a Raiders defense that had shown pretty well through 2 weeks. My belief is that the Raiders were just not ready to play, and came in off a big road win over the Baltimore Ravens, thinking they were going to do whatever they wanted against the Panthers. And, that’s just not how the NFL works. But more than that, this is a fade of the Browns. In order for us to lose this side of the teaser, the Browns have to outscore the Raiders by at least 9, on the road. The Browns have yet to eclipse 18 total points in a single game this season. Barring defensive/special teams touchdowns, I believe 10 points from the Raiders offense would give us a legitimate shot at covering, and 17+ would be an automatic cover. So I like the value there
The second part, is the Saints +9. Again this is kind of similar to the previous game. The lone loss for the Saints came last week, and they’ll be looking to bounce back. This is also a divisional opponent and these games tend to be very tight. Additionally, last week’s loss by the Saints came well within this number of 9 points. If the Saints offense can get back to what it was the first two weeks against a subpar Atlanta Defense, then this should be an easy cover. If not, I still think New Orleans’ “D” can do enough here to keep this close. They held the Eagles in check for the most part last week, albeit with no AJ Brown. And, now they’re facing a Falcons team who is averaging just north of 16 points per game. Again, in order for us to lose this bet, a BAD offensive team has to outscore a GOOD defensive team by MULTIPLE scores. It’s just a logical spot here to take the Saints.
Additionally, last week all teams who were underdogs in this range were winning teaser legs, while the teams that were in the -7 to -9.5 range, and were teased under a field goal, lost.
BOTH PLAYS = 2-Star Plays
