Wimbledon Men’s Final Best Bet (7/14/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | July 14, 2024 | 12:59 A.M. CST
Wimbledon Men’s Final: Carlos Alcaraz -145 | Novak Djokovic +115
Games Spread: Alcaraz -1..5 (-125) | Djokovic +1.5 (-115)
Set Spread: Alcaraz -1.5 (+140) | Djokovic +1.5 (-190)
Quick Summary Explaining Lines Above:
Just for quick explanation of the odds for those who are unfamiliar with how tennis betting works. The numbers at the top are the odds to win the match outright. So Alcaraz is the short favorite to win the match (-145) with Djokovic as a slight underdog (+115). The “Game Spread” is essentially a spread on the TOTAL GAMES won in the match. So who actually wins the match is irrelevant - it’s just the total number of games at the end of the match. So, say Djokovic loses the match in 5 sets, but he won two of the sets 6-1, 6-1, and Alcaraz won his sets 7-6, 6-1, 6-2; obviously Alcaraz won the match outright, but if you bet him -1.5 games you would lose the bet because the total games won would be 21-21 and Alcaraz was -1.5 on games. Lastly, the set spread is just the total number of sets won. So betting Djokovic +1.5 sets would mean you are basically betting Djokovic to either win the match or lose in 5 sets. If he were to lose in less than 5 sets he would lose by 2 or more sets, while you only have +1.5 sets on your ticket. And obviously vice versa for Alcaraz, as you would need him to win by 2 or more total sets.
Pick:
Okay so we are going to look to a line actually AWAY from all of those I listed above. I examined all of those and decided to stay away. I think the winner of this match is a legitimate coin flip, so if you aren’t sure on who to back I would probably just take Djokovic because of the price. You’re getting plus money in a coin flip, as opposed to laying a dollar fifty or so on Alcaraz. That’s also where the early money has come in, which you have to believe is mostly sharp. We saw it open Alcaraz -150, Djokovic +120, and it’s moved about 10 points towards Djokovic (-140, +110) depending on the book. So I do think I would give a SLIGHT lean based on price to Djokovic in the match. But it’s hard to bet against Alcaraz right now. He isn’t playing his best tennis, and yet he just finds ways to win these matches. It’s quite remarkable. He’s also had the tougher road of the two to get here, while Djokovic has had anything but a tough road. However, to underestimate a top 3 all time player based on an easy road would be a mistake - it’s not as if he is foreign to playing against great players; he’s beaten some of the greats of all time in Grand Slam finals numerous times. This match is also on the court where he is probably at his best. He’s looking for a record tying 8th Wimbledon Title. In terms of consistency, despite the easier road, Djokovic has definitely looked better. He has dropped just 2 sets the entire tournament, while Alcaraz has dropped at least one set in 3 of his last 4 matches in the tournament. He also had to come from behind just to beat Francis Tiafoe a few rounds prior to this matchup, as he faced a 4th set tiebreaker, down 2-1. He was able to win the breaker and rally to win the 5th set easily (6-2). But he was on the ropes against a much inferior opponent.
If I had to cap this, taking price out of it, I WANT to say Alcaraz because I’d strongly prefer to root for him. However, it’s hard to look away from Djokovic here. He seems to be more motivated than I’ve seen him in a long time. He’s got revenge on his mind from last year’s Wimbledon Final, losing to Alcaraz in an epic match. But I also think he knows that this is really important if he wants to win another major. Yes, he could still win the U.S. Open coming up next month, but when you are already sitting in the final, it’s hard to not think this is going to be the best chance you will ever have again. It’s not as if Alcaraz is going anywhere. You also have Janik Sinner on the uprise (Austrailian Open Champ) who was not 100% in this tourney. Medvedev is still playing at a top level as well. And Djokovic is 37, coming off knee surgery. He already had a rocky start to the year. This may very well be his last, best chance at winning a major. And it PROBABLY is his last chance at winning it all here at Wimbledon. So I’m going to say take Djokovic in the match IF you are looking to bet a winner. HOWEVER, that’s not my best bet.
My best bet is actually going to be on NOVAK DJOKOVIC to win the FIRST SET at +105, and here is why. I do think Djokovic is going to win this match. However, I also think there’s a decent chance that this match goes 5 sets. I’d be absolutely SHOCKED if it went less than 4. The only way that happens is if Djokovic is forced to retire due to injury - which is very unlikely. I also know that considering Djokovic’s age and health concerns, if he were to lose the first set, I think it’s pretty unlikely that he ends up winning the match. I think he also KNOWS this - the first set is going to be vitally important to him, and I believe he’s going to play that first set like it’s a 5th set at Wimbledon. He’s going to give it everything to take a lead in this match. That’s not TRADITIONALLY how Novak starts - he tends to start slow at times. But he has been pretty darn consistent in this tournament. Alcaraz on the other hand has really struggled early in matches and he’s been erratic at times. Multiple times he’s come out and lost the first set late in this tourney (Tiafoe, Tommy Paul, Medvedev). He even mentioned that he was nervous when he came out against Medvedev in the semis, as he went on to lose that first set. So I just believe that the first set favors Novak significantly. We also have the fact that he’s the best breaker player in history - so if he just doesn’t get broke in the first set, we have a very good shot at winning. If he ends up breaking Alcaraz once I’m almost certain he wins the first set without a breaker. Additionally, Alcarazy still won all those matches in which he lost the first set. So rather than relying on an older Novak with a surgically repaired knee to play 4-5 full sets and deliver for us, I’m going to back him early. Try to cash the ticket before 9 o’clock central time, and enjoy the rest of the match rooting for an Alcaraz comeback.
Official Pick: NOVAK DJOKOVIC TO WIN 1ST SET +105
Units: 2
