College Football Best Bets (9/7/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | September 7, 2024 | 2:47 A.M. CST
Best Bets Week 2:
1) South Alabama vs. Ohio Over 56
Week 1 was very telling for both these teams. South Alabama lost a shootout at home to North Texas, a game in which there were a total of 90 (yes NINETY) points scored in regulation (52-38). Even in defeat, Jaguar’s starting QB Gio Lopez was incredibly impressive. He threw for 432 yards, 4 TDs, and no picks in the loss, while rushing for over 60 yards and another TD on the ground. The run game as a whole racked up 150 yards, and was efficient in doing so. On the other hand their defense was about as BAD as it gets. Chandler Morris, who was an average QB AT BEST at TCU, threw for over 400 yards, 3 TDs, and no picks, while posting a 91 QBR. The Jags Defense had no answers for the passing attack of the Mean Green. And the result was NT hanging half a hundred on the Jags ON THE ROAD.
Ohio on the other hand played a Power 4 opponent in Syracuse on the road, falling 22-38 in a high scoring affair as well. Last season the Orange did not have a single game in which their starting QB threw for 300 yards or more. In steps Kyle McCord, who was NOT good at Ohio State last year, and he slings it around on the Ohio Bobcats Defense for 354 yards, 4 TDs, and nearly 9 yards per pass. The Syracuse run game wasn’t great, but when you factor out sacks they still ran for 5 yards per carry on the Bobcat D. On the other side of the ball, the Bobcats ran all over the Orange, putting up over 250 yards on the ground. The pass game wasn’t elite, but did enough.
Overall, you look at these two teams and both groups I have a big down arrow on both their defenses from a year ago. Additionally I have a big up arrow on both their offenses. Both teams showed really well in week 1 offensively, but gave up a ton of points and yards on the defensive side. And then lastly, we look at the tempo of both teams. South Alabama was an average tempo team last year; this year with a new coach, they were 14th in the country in plays per minute in week 1 (playing MUCH faster = good for the over). Similarly, Ohio has been one of the SLOWEST teams in the country over the past couple seasons; this year, week 1 they went from around dead last in tempo to slightly above average (65th) in plays per minute. So you throw in the pace of both teams increasing, along with how they are trending and this is a solid play. Also note that there was a big sharp move on this total when this opened below the key number of 55 (that’s a very key number in CFB Totals). So now we’re sitting 56-57. There’s still value here at those numbers, as oddsmakers have just been too slow to adjust to these new teams with all the turnover that comes with the portal. Take the OVER here for our first best bet.
OFFICIAL PICK #1: South Alabama vs. Ohio OVER 56 (-110)
PLAY RATING: 2-Star (1% of Bankroll)
2) Texas Tech @ Washington State OVER 66
I normally prefer sides to totals, but sometimes it’s better to just keep it simple. Texas Tech and Washington State in their first two games combined for a total of 203 points. Wazzu beat Portalnd 70-30, while Texas Tech ESCAPED (and boy do I mean escaped) what would’ve been a devastating loss at home to FCS opponent Abilene Christian. The Red Raiders were HORRIFIC defensively in their game, allowing the Wildcats of ACU to put up a RIDICULOUS 650 yards of total offense. ACU’s starting QB threw for over 500 yards and 5 TDs, including nearly 10 yards per pass. TTU’s offense was just as impressive from a numbers standpoint.
Wazzu played a similar game as well, with their defense giving up 450 yards of total offense to a bad Portland team. They scored 30 points themselves, although the game was never close because Wazzu put up SEVENTY.
Look, I could give more stats here that all backup why this is a solid bet. The truth of the matter is this number is failing to adjust for what we saw week 1. Obviously we don’t want to overreact to one datapoint, however the defenses that trotted out for both teams were extremely subpar. Both teams play at a very fast pace, and both offenses put up over 550 yards last week. I don’t see a way this game goes under barring significant injury to either starting QB. Weirder things have happened, but I’m going to go with the simple approach to this one and stick to the over in an underadjusted market with two bad defenses, and high powered offenses. Give me OVER in this matchup in Pullman (also the weather is perfect there tomorrow night).
OFFICIAL PICK #2: TTU @ Washington State OVER 66 (-110)
PLAY RATING: 2-Star (1% Bankroll)
3) Northern Illinois +28.5 @ Notre Dame
I was waiting for this to get above 28.5. Now that number is available so we’re going to take NIU here. They return 14 starters from last year’s team that finished 7-6 and won a Bowl Game. Additionally, NIU has not lost a game by more than this number (28). I like this NIU team and they’ve shown an ability to not get run off the field against teams like this. A couple years ago they damn near beat #8 Kentucky on the road. Last year they lost to Nebraska by 20+ but covered this number.
Additionally you look at the spot for Notre Dame. They are coming off a very emotional victory on the road over a top 20 team in Texas A&M. That was a HUGE win for this program and for head coach Marcus Freeman. It’s just a big natural let down spot.
I also did not like what I saw from Notre Dame’s offense last week. Riley Leonard just looked very average against an “OKAY” A&M defense. He threw for less than 150 yards and was lucky to not have thrown a pick (A&M dropped 2). Now you’re asking a team with a non-explosive pass game to win by margin? I’m not sure they can do that in this specific spot. They’ll improve as the year goes on, but right now I’m not sure they can. Let’s take NIU with the points. Especially now that it’s OVER 4 TDs
OFFICIAL PICK #2: Northern Illinois +28.5 (-110)
PLAY RATING: 2-Star (1% Bankroll)
IMPORTANT: Check back here on the website at 2 o’clock CST. If I add any games it will likely be by that time. Below are the games that I considered but ultimately left off my official card.
Texas State -1 vs. UTSA: Well I loved this play early in the week and I bet it at a bad number (-2.5). I fully expected sharp money to come in on the Bobcats following the unimpressive performance by UTSA week 1, nearly losing to an FCS opponent. Texas State played a poor game as well, but they were never in real jeopardy of losing. Unfortunately the market has completely disagreed with me on this one. That’s what kept me off this game. This was going to be a 100% best bet this week had this closed 3 or 3.5. Instead it moved all the way to -1. So pro money came in on UTSA. I still like Texas State, just stayed off it for a best bet due to the market move against me.
Baylor +15 @ Utah: Sharp money on the Bears, and I really tried to make a case for Baylor here. I think they SHOULD cover this, but re-watching their game film from week 1 against a bad Tarleton State team, I saw DeQuan Finn (new Starting QB for Baylor) look underwhelming. He made too many mistakes (2 picks vs a bad Defense). I just can’t trust him on the road in a hostile environment at altitude. Plus Utah is healthy for the first time in 2 years. I still think the Bears cover more than 2 TDs, but couldn’t pull the trigger
Oregon Team Total OVER 40.5: I just felt that taking TTU/Wazzu was a better play when it came down to it. Oregon’s offense will have a solid game. But their OL issues are scaring me away from making this one an official play.
Other Sharp Action I Considered or Played Small: Note these are NOT official best bets. Only best bets are the 2 plays at the top
Virginia +2.5 @ Wake Forest: Now UVA +1
ECU/ODU OVER 51.5: Moved to 54.5
Iowa State +3.5 @ Iowa: Now Iowa -2.5
Illinois +5.5 vs. Kansas: Now Illinois +4.5 (This one I considered)
