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College Basketball Best Bets (11/14/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | November 14, 2024 | 11:22 A.M. CST
College basketball is BACK baby! This has historically been my best sport wagering wise. I’ve had 11 consecutive winning seasons and I continued to smash college hoops last year, finishing with over a 64% win rate. I hope to continue that this year. If you do happen to check these posts and get winners from me, please considering supporting the website by subscribing to our patreon. Click Here to go to the page!
Let’s get into the first official release of the season.
College Basketball Best Bet: Arizona State +5.5 vs. Grand Canyon
When looking at this number initially I was a bit confused. Grand Canyon is definitely a team that has NCAA tournament potential. After reaching the Big Dance two years in a row, they not only returned last season, but they actually got their first ever NCAA tournament victory, upsetting St. Mary’s in the first round. In fact, they hung with Alabama (who went all the way to the Final Four) until the final few minutes in the Round of 32, however they were unable to pull off a second consecutive upset.
The Antelopes return a TON of production from last year’s team, including leading scorer and future NBA draft pick Tyon Grant-Foster. It was actually a surprise to me that he decided to comeback, as some mock drafts had him as a projected first round pick (in a weak draft class) where he may not be that this coming season in a much more loaded class. Regardless, the return of Grant-Foster is clearly why the Lopes are getting so much love from the books early in the season.
The problem, is Arizona State is getting significantly UNDER valued so far this season. The Sun Devils have a largely new squad this year, which is very normal in the current world of college athletics. But that’s not to say they didn’t add some very good talent. Alston Mason, a transfer from Missouri State (started his career at OU) comes over after averaging nearly 18 per game last season as a junior. Additionally, Bobby Hurley Basheer Jihad, a senior who spent three years at Ball State University. Jihad averaged only 2.7 points as a freshman, but improved it to 7.1 as a sophomore, and then led the team in scoring with 18.6 ppg last year as a junior. To add to that, they added BJ Freeman, a Milwauke University transfer who averaged 21.1 ppg as a sophomore last season as well. So the Devils added THREE LEGIT scorers to their squad who can give you 30 on any given night.
Now, it’s not surprising that GCU is getting more love than ASU, with one team returning a ton of production while the other is basically a group of individuals still getting used to each other. HOWEVER, that doesn’t take away the fact that from a PURE TALENT perspective, this number is absolutely off. I initially thought this game had to be AT Grand Canyon (they have one of the best home court advantages in the country). But that’s not the case, as this is a NEUTRAL location game (Footprint Center in Phoenix, Arizona). So initially I made this game (based on pre-season projections) a pick ‘em on a neutral. And that’s all before looking at what’s occurred so far this season.
Arizona State has one legitimate datapoint and it came last game against Gonzaga. The game was a TRUE ROAD game for the Sun Devils, and they went into Spokane as a 20+ point underdog and hung with the Zags punch for punch. Keep in mind, this is a Gonzaga team who SPANKED top 10 ranked Baylor by 40+ points in the first game of the season. This ASU team is a LEGIT player this year. With all that in mind, I think this could legitimately be ASU -2. And we’re CATCHING 5.5. So we’re backing Arizona State here, and sprinkle a little bit on the ML!!
Official Pick: Arizona State +5.5
Play Rating: 2-Star
NFL Best Bets Week 10 (11/10/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | November 10, 2024 | 3:32 A.M. CST
NFL Best Bets:
Best Bet #1: 2 Team, 6 Point Teaser: Philadelphia Eagles -1 | Minnesota Vikings -1
Best Bet #2: Philadelphia Eagles -7.5 vs. Dallas Cowboys
Theme of the day: Fade the DALLAS COWBOYS. Let’s go 0-2 and get back to above .500
College Football Best Bets (11/9/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | November 9, 2024 | 1:53 A.M. CST
Best Bets Today: None
Don’t like any of the slate today enough for an official play, but I do have some opinions. Also check out our podcast picks. But keep in mind to dial back your sizing on non-officials. Good luck today!!
Possible Additions:
Bama -2.5, WVU +4.5, Vandy +7, NCST/Duke OVER 50.5, North Texas +6, Ole Miss ML, Utah +3
College Football Pick ‘Em Show Picks (Slobberknocker Sports)
Author: Dylan Lieck | November 9, 2024 | 1:40 A.M. CST
Below are our picks from our Pick ‘Em Show that we were unable to post on YouTube due to the new version of our College Football Show.
Current Show Records:
Dylan’s Best Bets Record on Pick ‘Em Show (Entering Week 11): 21-9 (70%)
Uncle T’s Top Total of the Week (Entering Week 11): 5-0 (100%)
Uncle T’s Dog of the Week (Entering Week 11): 4-3 ATS, 3-4 SU (+4.1 Units)
Overall Record Official Sides/Totals: 26-9 (72%)
Overall Profit (2 Unit per Game Bettor @ $100/unit) = +36.95 Units (+$3,695)
Week 11 Picks/Bets:
Dylan’s 4 Best Picks of the Week
West Virginia +4.5 @ Cincinnati
North Texas +6 @ Army
Alabama -2.5 @ LSU
Duke @ NC State OVER 50.5
Keep in mind, on the pick ‘em show, Dylan ALWAYS picks 3 sides and 1 total, so there are 4 best bets for the viewers regardless
However, he may only officially release 1 play; so be sure to check this website for his OFFICIAL RELEASES on Saturday morning
Uncle T’s Total of the Week:
Iowa State @ Kansas OVER 49
Uncle T’s Dog of the Week:
Virginia Tech +6.5 (+225 ML) vs. Clemson
Thursday Night Football Best Bet + CFB Early Pick
Author: Dylan Lieck | November 7, 2024 | 10:42 A.M. CST
Best Bet TNF: Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens
We’re going to look at the total in this game. It’s understandably extremely high, with these two teams having two of the most prolific offenses in the NFL. The Ravens have been the number 1 offense in the NFL all season behind Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry. The emergence of 2nd year WR Zay Flowers has been a big help as well, plus Baltimore also added former Steelers WR Deionte Johnson this week. Expect him to get a few snaps tonight as well. The Bengals offense is starting to hum with Joe Burrow looking fully healthy after last year’s fluke wrist injury. Jamar Chase and Burrow have gotten on the same page over the past month, and they have been essentially unstoppable.
We already have on data point for this game, and we know it was a tight game. The Ravens won the first matchup in Cinci in OT by 3, although the Bengals were the better team throughout. I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw a similar outcome tonight. The reason we are looking for the total, though, is more than just the offenses. It’s the LACK of defense on both of these teams.
The Ravens have a new DC in Zach Orr, and it has been a disasterous first season. Mike McDonald’s departure to take over as the Head Coach in Seattle has been felt massively by a Ravens defense that was the best in the league last season, and now sits in the bottom half of the league in most meaningful metrics. On the other side the Bengals Defense has been bottom 10 all year. I would argue that they’ve been a bottom 5 defense when adjusted for schedule. They are HORRIFIC led by their Defensive Coordinator Lou Anorumo, who only still has a job because Bengals ownership just doesn’t give a shit.
With all these things in mind we are going to look to the over. The total currently sits at 52.5 and I believe there is a hesitation in the market to go higher than this, mainly because we just don’t see totals this high in the NFL nowadays. Last time these two teams played there were an absurd 79 points scored in the game. And that was BEFORE the Bengals offense was really clicking. They will be without Tee Higgins again this week, but we saw last week how the Bengals can operate without him. And against this Ravens secondary I believe Joe Burrow will have a huge day even without Higgins.
So we’re taking the over here. Yes, it’s a big number. But it’s just not big enough. My model makes this game 55.5 and so we’re getting some good value here even at a very high number.
Official Pick: Bengals @ Ravens OVER 52.5
Play Rating: 2-Star
NFL Best Bets
Author: Dylan Lieck | November 3, 2024 | 2:07 A.M. CST
We went 3-0 in college football yesterday and we HIT A 43 to 1 PARLAY! Unbelievable day, and we’re up to 29-16 in CFB on the season, good for 64.4%! NFL we hit our Thursday play of the week on the New York Jets. We haven’t had the greatest year in the NFL but we’re getting back on track, 2-1 the last 2 weeks, including a 5-star winner on the Detroit Lions a couple weeks back. Let’s try to keep this streak going today!!
NFL Best Bets:
Best Bet #1: Minnesota Vikings +1 vs. Indianapolis Colts | Philadelphia Eagles -1 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Normally in the NFL, teasers have been the thing I’ve cashed at the highest rate (nearly 70% last season). However, we’ve been struggling this year with teasers. Because of the weirdness of the first 5 weeks of the season, as well as the poor outcomes on teasers playing advantage legs, we went away from teasers for the past month or so. But, today we’re going back to the well.
The Vikings are a team off two losses, playing at home in a place with the best homefield advantage in the league. I also believe the Colts are better with Joe Flacco, but this is an overreaction keeping this line below 7. Anthony Richardson is bad, but this team is not good anyways. Flacco will help, but the Vikings are in a good get right spot here. And they need a win to keep pace with the Lions.
The other leg, we’re going to fade the Jags who have basically given up on the season. Not only is Trevor Lawerence terrible, but the Jags have a bevy of injuries in key position groups. I in NO WAY love the Eagles, but I believe at home, against a BAD team already, now with a ton of injuries, playing against a fully healthy Eagles team who’s gaining confidence IN PHILI. Give me the Eagles to just win the game outright.
Official Pick: 2-Team, 6 Point Teaser: Vikings +1 | Eagles -1
Play Rating: 2-Star
Best Bet #2: Dallas Cowboys @ Atlanta Falcons OVER 48.5
This is purely a fade of these two defenses. Betting Dallas Cowboys over this season has been very profitable against any team with a pulse on offense. The Falcons have more than a pulse. Kirk Cousins THRIVES against teams like the Cowboys. Dallas will likely be missing it’s top 2 corners, plus Micah Parsons. You look at all the injuries and Dallas should not be getting ANY pressure on Cousins and the secondary will have lots of trouble holding up against those really solid WRs.
On the other Atlanta is one of the worst pressure generating teams in the NFL. Ideally Atlanta gets a lead early and forces the Cowboys to play faster. You’d think Mike McCarthy would figure out after multiple games getting down big and going to the hurry up, that the Cowboys are better operating fast, up tempo, with pace. But he tends to not see these things. Even if he doesn’t, this should be a good spot for the Dallas offense. And, if CeeDee Lamb decides to play hard for more than a quarter, I think we get a real shootout here. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this go over by double digits. Let’s take the over here for our second best bet of the day.
Official Pick: Dallas Cowboys @ Atlanta Falcons OVER 48.5
Play Rating: 2-Star
Best Bet #3: Detroit Lions -2.5 @ Green Bay Packers
College Football Best Bets (11/2/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | November 2, 2024 | 4:15 A.M. CST
College Football Best Bets
Best Bet #1 (Top Play of Day): Vanderbilt +8 @ Auburn
I’m absolutely shocked at the disrespect for Vanderbilt over and over in the market. But I’m far more shocked at the RESPECT for AUBURN in the market. How in the world they are laying ANYWHERE near a touchdown in this game is ABSURD. Legitimately I made this line Vanderbilt -3 on a neutral field. I think Auburn is one of the worst teams in the country, not to mention it looks as though they’ve quit on the season. These are absolutely two programs headed in completely opposite directions: Vandy is on the uptick and Auburn is trending towards the worst program in the SEC. Then you factor in the coaching matchup with Hugh Freeze vs. Clark Lea. It’s one of the bigger mismatches you will see in SEC Play. I think Lea is one of the best coaches in the country, while I believe Hugh Freeze is a glorified figurehead used for recruiting and in copenhagen dip commercials.
The only possible explanation for the line being even remotely close to this number would be a belief that Diego Pavia was not close to 100% last week. However, if he plays, regardless of his healthy, this line could never be above Auburn -3. And what’s even crazier than all of that is this OPENED 6.5 and got BET UP by professionals to Auburn -8. Seriously, I will gladly take all 8 points, and SPRINKLE some on the money because Vandy is going to WIN THIS GAME OUTRIGHT. I broke this game down on our Pick ‘Em Show on the Podcast as well, and I gave it out on Monday at +7. I’m giving it out at an EVEN BETTER number here. This is one of my favorite plays of the month. We’re going to increase it to a 3-star actually. I would normally make this a 4-star, but the lack of knowledge on Diego Pavia’s full health is going to have me keep this as a 3-star. But still a bigger play than a usual one.
One last nugget: Jerry Kill is a special assistant to the head coach at Vanderbilt. The last two times Jerry Kill faced Hugh Freeze as a head coach, he beat him. And, that included Kill taking his New Mexico State Aggies (led by none other than Diego Pavia at QB) into Jordan Haire Stadium last year and upsetting the Auburn Tigers as 28 point underdogs. So yes, there is a clear advantage here in things beyond the football field as well.
Official Pick: Vanderbilt +8
Play Rating: 3-Star
Play #2 Texas Tech +14.5 @ Iowa State
Look this is a fade of Iowa State at the absolute peak of their market. This Cyclone’s team is a great story, and I absolutely love Matt Campbell. But when you look at these two teams from a talent perspective, it’s truly not much different. Actually in terms of athletes, I would give the advantage to Texas Tech. Now, there’s definitely a clear coaching DISADVANTAGE for Texas Tech; Joey McGuire is a very below average coach and Matt Campbell is awesome. But remember we’re catching 14.5 points here. We don’t have to win outright.
Let’s talk about those 14.5 points. I have no earthly idea how this line is so high. I understand Texas Tech has had some uneven performances this season; they were blown out by Baylor a few weeks back, but Tech closed as a 4.5 point favorite in that game. Then you look at last week against TCU. That game Tech led by 13 in the 4th quarter, when starting QB Behren Morton was knocked out of the game with a concussion. Following the injury TCU made a late push and escaped with a 1 point victory. Tech was somehow a 7 point underdog in that game and covered easily. If you think about what that’s saying, you are telling me that Tech is a pick ‘em right now against Central Florida on a neutral field? A UCF Team that has won ONE conference game. No shot. I made this line Iowa State -7 at home.
Then you factor in spot. Tech is coming off a tough loss, but they are getting Morton back. Iowa State on the other hand, undefeated thus far, is not blowing teams out by any means. They are coming off a bye, but their last outing as a 13.5 point favorite, they absolutely should have lost to Central Florida. UCF led by two scores in the fourth quarter, and it took a crazy late game comeback for Iowa State to remain unbeaten. This Tech team is far better than UCF. Now the game is in Aimes, BUT I think coming off a bye works against this specific team. A lot of people blindly believe teams off a bye play better (because they get healthy, fresh, and extra time to prep), but that’s not the case. In fact it’s completely reliant on specific situations. The reason I dislike this one for the Cyclones is because ISU is not a team of overly talented players. They are a TEAM with good chemistry and flow. And that is who they have ALWAYS been. Because that’s the case, being in rythm is really important. And when you look at their offense specifically, it’s gotten better and better as the season has gone on. That’s a team you don’t really want to have a break, because you want to keep the flow going. Teams that are STRUGGLING are often the ones that most benefit from a bye week (or one that’s super banged up). Thus, I think we will likely see this team struggle in this game offensively, especially early on.
With all that in mind, you also have a very explosive Tech offense. Tahj Brooks is quite possibly the best back in the country when healthy other than Ashton Jeanty, of course. And You’ve got a dual threat QB who is getting better and better with each start. He does make some mistakes at times, but he’s got big play ability when they give him time. ISU’s defense has been good this year, but this is one of the best offenses they’ve faced so far this year. I truly believe Tech is a live dog in this spot, and I’m showing TONS of value on Tech over two TDs. But even if all goes wrong and Tech gets down big. Keep in mind that say we are down 3 TDs late, we have the very possible outcome of a backdoor cover with this Tech offense late in the game. Let’s back Tech here, showing tons of value, as a RARE 3 score LIVE dog.
Official Pick: Texas Tech +14.5
Play Rating: 2-Star
Play #3: South Carolina +3.5 vs. Texas A&M
Last play here we are going to fade Texas A&M. The Aggies are one of the most OVER RATED teams in the country. They are currently ranked 10th, when in reality they are barely a top 25 team. They’ve played an unbelievably weak schedule, and still are extremely fortunate to only have 1 loss. They trailed to a bad Arkansas team on a neutral field, and needed a fourth quarter late score to win that game. They barely hung on against BOWLING GREEN STATE, 26-20 AT HOME with none other than Marcel Reed (New starter) at QB. He was also the starter in that Arkansas game, and he was NOT GOOD in either game. They trailed by double digits to LSU last week in a night home game, and LSU missed FOUR FIELD GOALS. Then Garrett Nussmeier basically imploded and handed A&M 3 picks. The first of which completely turned the game.
Then you look at South Carolina, a team that is 2-3 plays away from being a legit contender in the SEC. They led by two scores in the 4th quarter against LSU earlier this season and a couple massive penalties changed the game. Against Bama they scored late but were forced to go for 2 due to a missed extra point earlier in the game. The 2 point play was a wide open walk in score and the QB (Lanoris Sellers) missed the throw. Still SC got the ball back and was 10 yards from FG range with a first and 10 with just a minute left. They were unable to get in range because Sellers threw a pick.
All of that said, we also love one mismatch in this game: The SC defensive front against the Texas A&M OL. The SC front is quite possibly the best in the country. It’s top 3 without a doubt. They’re playing against a below average, banged up A&M OL. And you’re asking a kid who cannot throw the ball, who is extremely one-dimensional, to hold up against an ELITE front. Not to mention, they’ve had extra prep time coming off a bye (this is a GOOD bye in my opinion). We’re going to ride with the Game Cocks. And I think they could absolutely be an outright win.
Official Pick: South Carolina +3.5
Play Rating: 2-Star
If you want to play a fun little moneyline parlay on all three dogs:
Tech +410 | Vandy +250 | Tech +145 = 42.7 to 1
I don’t recommend playing more than 10 bucks on it. But true odds are around 15 to 1 so it’s a ton of value
Slobberknocker Sports Podcast Weekly Show Bets/Picks (11/1/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | November 1, 2024 | 4:47 A.M. CST
Best Bets Recap From Weekly Pick ‘Em Show:
Last week we had some technical difficulties and had to post our picks on the website as a backup. I decided because some people only check the website, in order to provide more action, I would post our podcast picks weekly now. We’ve been a crazy hot run. I went 4-0 on the show last week. Turner won his 4th consecutive Total of the Week since we started it. He is now 4-0 on the season on his Totals of the Week.
Turner & I combined are now 22-9 on sides (71%). It’s been a CRAZY hot run. And then Turner gives out a dog to win outright each week. We started that 6 weeks ago. Although that one we don’t count for our official sides record, he’s given out 6 plays. And 2 of those big dogs won outright: a +210 winner and a +350 winner
That’s +5.6 units, minus 4 (for the 4 losses) = an additional +1.6 units to add to the portfolio. Hopefully we keep the hot streak going for everyone this week. Below are the plays from the podcast. If you are new to the website, check out our YouTube Channel: @slobberknockersports and watch the entire episode!!
Dylan’s Best Bets:
1) South Carolina +3.5 vs. Texas A&M
2) Vanderbilt +8 @ Auburn
3) Arkansas +7.5 @ Ole Miss
4) SMU @ Pittsburgh OVER 59
Uncle T’s TOTAL of the Week:
Kansas City Chiefs @ Tampa Bay Bucs OVER 44.5
Uncle T’s Dog of the Week:
Vanderbilt Commodores +250 over Auburn Tigers
College Football Best Bets Record (End of October)
Author: Dylan Lieck | October 31, 2024 | 6:01 P.M. CST
College Football Record Last Week: 5-1
College Football on Season: 28-16 (63.6%)
All CFB & NFL 4-Star & 5-Star Plays: 3-0 (+13.0u)
NFL Best Bets (10/31/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | October 31, 2024 | 3:39 A.M.
Best Bet Thursday Night Football:
It’s late Wednesday night (really Thursday morning) but I need to get this out so it’s posted before any line moves. We’re going to go with the Jets tonight on TNF. One of the Jets 2 wins this season came earlier this year on TNF, a game that was perhaps their most complete of the season from start to finish. Moreso though, we’re just looking to fade the Texans at spot where they are absolutely due for a loss, while the Jets are due for a win.
Yes the Jets are 2-6 and the Texans are 6-2, however a number of the Jets losses have come in very tight games. 4 of the Jets 6 losses have been by 6 points or less, and 3 of those 6 have been by 3 points or less. At this time of year I like to look at teams who are a couple plays away from having a vastly different record. For example, you look at the Jets loss to the Broncos at home. A game they absolutely dominated from a statistical standpoint, and still had a 50 yard field goal to win the game. They make that kick (which Zurlein has traditionally always made in his career), that’s 3 wins for the Jets. Then you look at last week’s game vs. the Patriots where the Jets pulled off some HISTORY. New York held the Patriots to under 250 yards of total offense, they scored 20+ points in the game, and they did not turn it over. Prior to that game, teams who accomplished those feats were 756-0. So in the long history of this league, the Jets found a way to lose a game they statistically dominated (including outgaining New England by over 2 yards per play). Then you look at the game against the Jets where Zurlein missed two EASY field goals, and the Jets STILL had the ball at midfield with a chance to win the game in the final minutes, and couldn’t do it. Even conservatively, you change 3 plays in the Jets season, two of which were field goals, and this SAME TEAM could be 5-3. Instead they sit 2-6. What’s the line on this game at that point.
Then you look at the Texans who come in 6-2, however look at who they have beaten this year. 5 of their 6 wins came against the 1-win Jacksonville Jaguars, the New England Patriots with a rookie QB making his first career start, the Chicago Bears with a rookie QB making his second career start (and first career start on the road), and the Indianapolis Colts TWICE, both times with Anthony Richardson as the starting QB (the worst QB in the NFL this year who was just benched for 40-year old Joe Flacco). So legitimately the Texans have beaten ONE team with a pulse, and it was the Bills, AT HOME, a game that was tied with 1 minute left and the Bills had the ball.
Now all of that is not to dismiss these two teams and what they’ve accomplished this season. Good teams like the Texans find ways to win games, while bad teams like the Jets find ways to lose games. And that’s what has happened this season. But the reality is that you change a few plays in the Jets season and you have two teams playing each other with very similar records, then what is this line? More than likely it’s closer to Jets -4.5 or -5.
From a line perspective we already have some value. But now we look at the Houston Texans offense. They have struggled massively since the loss of Nico Collins a few weeks ago. In that span without Collins, Stroud had two of his worst games as a pro, including a performance with a sub-40% completion percentage. Then last week, the Texans suffered a second blow in the receiving room with Stefon Diggs tearing his ACL. So they are now down their top two weapons, and if life for CJ Stroud wasn’t already hard enough, it just got tougher. Couple that with the fact that DJ Reed has been the best cover DB in the league this year according to PFF. And, while Sauce Gardner hasn’t played to the level he did in his first two All-Pro seasons, he’s still a top 5 CB in the game. Thus, it’s going to be difficult for the Texans to find success through the air consistently tonight. Which means they will largely have to rely on the ground game and Joe Mixon. Well unfortunately for the Texans, since that Nico Collins injury where the pass game was depleted, the run game took a hit as well. In fact, since then, the Texans are 26th in EPA per rush with a 30% rush success rate in that span (Dead last in NFL). So I’m not sure there’s truly a path here to just shove it down the throat of the Jets front 7.
All of these factors lead to massive value for the Jets here, not to mention this is the Jets Super Bowl. Obviously, the loss last week probably put the nail in the coffin, but mathematically, they aren’t out just yet. A 7th loss here would mean 10-7 is the best possible outcome. You’d think 9 wins gives them a shot and 10 would get them in. To keep that alive, it’s a MUST win tonight. We’re going to get the Jets best shot here. And even though the offense hasn’t been great, they have been much better since demoting Nathaniel Hackett, so look for some increased production tonight from Devante Adams and that receiving core.
Let’s back the Jets ML. There’s some -123 out there still at Circa & DKs. Play to -129. At -135 is when I would rather take the -2. Don’t lay more than 2 or more than -135 NO MATTER WHAT.
Official Pick: New York Jets ML (-123) Play to -134
Play Rating: 2-Star
Slobberknocker Sports Pick ‘Em Show Best Bets & Dog of the Week
Author: Dylan Lieck | October 26, 2024 | 5:34 A.M. CST
Dylan’s Best Bets:
1) Boise State -2.5 @ UNLV
2) Minnesota -4 vs. Maryland
3) Bowling Green State +2.5 @ Toledo
4) Total: Kansas/K-State OVER 55
Uncle T’s DD Dog of the Week: Oklahoma State +7 | +210 @ Baylor
Play moneyline & spread
Uncle T’s Total of the Week: Kansas/K-State OVER 55
CFB Best Bets Saturday (10/26/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | October 26, 2024 | 5:53 A.M. CST
Best Bets (All 2 Star Plays)
1) Central Florida ML (-120) vs. BYU
2) Minnesota -4 vs. Maryland
3) TTU +7 @ TCU
4) Bowling Green State +2.5 @ Toledo
5) Kansas State/Kansas OVER 55
Moneyline Dog Parlay:
Bowling Green State +110 | Texas Tech +170 | Michigan State +130
Payout: 14 to 1
CFB Best Bet (10/25/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | October 25, 2024 | 1:28 A.M.
Best Bet Game Breakdown: Boise State -2.5 @ UNLV
Let’s start with Boise States offense vs. UNLV’s Defense. And this is a big part of why we’re going to look to the Broncos here for a best bet. There’s a clear edge to Boise State on this side of the ball. And, it all starts with one man named Ashton Jeanty. Jeanty is far and away the best college football player in the country. What he is doing at the RB position is absolutely historic. His numbers are literally unbelievable, and they just keep getting better. Through 6 games he’s run for over 1,200 yards (over 200 yards per game), 17 rushing TDs (19 total TDs), and a first down every time he runs the ball (10 yards/carry). Additionally he’s the most valuable running back in the country metrically, as he is 1st in CFB in EPA/Rush. He’s also leads the country in yards after contact, with 912 yards after getting hit. To give that stat some reference, imagine starting every play getting hit/touched/slowed by a defender. Now think about this: if you ONLY took his rush yards after that initial contact, he would still be 2nd in the COUNTRY in total rushing. He’s on pace to rush for over 1,800 yards after contact on the season, which would be 500 yards more than the all-time record. He also leads the country in missed tackles forced, with 56, another record he will easily break if he continues even close to his current pace. But what’s even more absurd about the entire thing, is that he’s done this without even playing in 2 halves. He did not play in the 2nd half of their games against Utah State and Portland State. So, in reality, he’s actually only played 5 games. He should not only be the clear Heisman favorite, he should win the thing come December.
The rest of the offense is not bad by any means, but the key issue is the UNLV defense. What looked to be a very good defense to start the season has been anything but solid the last few weeks. In fact, when you look at the UNLV rush defense (which is the better portion of the D), they are 78th in run grade (PFF) and 113th in the country in yards after contact allowed. What does that tell us? they are not gap sound and they do NOT tackle well. And, I just told you that Jeanty is the hardest player in the country to tackle. This is a BAD matchup for UNLV. Additionally, you look at their pass defense, which is 125th in the country (horrible), it’s been even worse the past 4 weeks. They’ve allowed 341 pass yards per game in the Month of October. And it’s not as though they were playing juggernauts. This Boise passing attack led by Maddox Matson isn’t great, but it’s effective enough to exploit a bad pass defense, especially one that’s going to be selling out against the run. I almost think UNLV would need 3-4 turnovers to have a legitimate shot to keep up with Bosie State in this game. And although UNLV has been good at forcing TO’s this year, Boise State LEADS the COUNTRY with the fewest turnovers (just 4 in 6 games). So every pathway to success here for UNLV seems to be stymied by Boise.
The other side of the ball is a bit concerning, in the sense that I don’t think Boise State’s defense is good whatsoever. But they definitely have shown some improvement over the course of the season. Against Oregon early in the year the score was very misleading; although the Ducks scored 35+ points, 14 of them came on special teams. The reality is the Boise “D” actually played quite well in that matchup. Then more recently, a Wazzu team that put up 56 points the week prior, was held completely in check against the Broncos. This UNLV offense is significantly worse than either of those teams’ offenses. Hajj Malik-Williams for UNLV leads the way at QB, and he’s been pretty solid since taking over for Matthew Sluka. But the Rebels did falter at home against Syracuse under Williams, and he also had his worst performance of the season in their most recent outing against a below average defense (50% completion + 2 Picks). The key to this matchup though is the leading wide receiver for UNLV, Ricky White III. He’s legitimately the only playmaker on the outside for the Rebels. And, although he is a VERY good player, it’s become so obvious that the Rebels are going to him on nearly every play that Boise knows taking him away will be key to success. White has been targeted on 61 of the 123 pass attempts by the Rebels this season, which is good for a 49% target share (far and away the highest in the country). The Broncos have had 2 weeks to prepare for this game coming off a bye and they will be ready to take White away early. In the MW Championship game last season, White had 8 catches in the first half and was torching the Boise secondary. After halftime he did not have a single catch. I believe we will see a game plan similar to the that 2nd half come Friday night, and that should lead to great success for the Boise D.
Overall, this is a mismatch. And we’re seeing pro money pour in on Boise. Get in on it before it moves to 3. I’m going to make this a 4 star play which is my first 4 star of the year for college football. Broncos, lay the 2.5 and let’s cash the ticket
OFFICIAL PICK: Boise State -2.5
Play Rating: 4-Star
NFL Best Bet Monday Night Football (10/21/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | October 21, 2024 | 8:13 P.M. CST
Best Bet:
We are going to go to the Bucs, Ravens game tonight for our best bet, and we are going to look to the OVER 48.5. Pure value bet. Both defenses are not good. Both offenses are top 10 in the NFL. Good weather conditions, and extra time to prepare. This number should be 54. We are going OVER.
Official Pick: Ravens @ Bucs OVER 48.5
Play Rating: 2 Star
NFL Best Bets (10/13/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | October 13, 2024 | 2:41 A.M. CST
Another tough loss last week on our teaser. We got home easily on the Falcons +8.5 on Monday night, and they actually won the game outright. Then we’re on the 1 yard line going into score to up 17-0 (catching 8.5), and Gardner Minshew throws a 100 yard pick six, and flips the game entirely. All of the sudden we look up and we’re down 3 at halftime despite outgaining the Raiders 206-63 through the first 25 minutes of the game. Tough one to swallow but that’s been our luck this year. We will keep it going and get back to winning, hopefully this week.
Best Side OF THE SEASON: Detroit Lions -3 vs. Dallas Cowboys
This is basically a fade of the Cowboys and a sell high spot. Everyone saw Dallas win their last two games, both of which being primetime games. However, the wins came against two of the worst offenses in the league in the Giants and the Steelers. The Cowboy defense, in reality, has not been good this season. And now they face one of the best offenses in the league, who seems to be finally clicking on all cylinders. The Lions were also on a bye last week, while Dallas had to play late Sunday night.
This spot in general feels like a really bad spot for Dallas. Then you take into account a few more things. First off, Dallas won on the final play of the game against Pittsburgh last week (with Justin Fields at QB who is bottom 5 in the NFL in QBR). If that pass falls incomplete, or if the Steelers recover the Rico Dowdle fumble on the one yard line & Dallas loses this game, what is this line? I’d argue that it’s at LEAST -4, possibly -4.5. Additionally, there’s been phony scores between both these teams before this past week. For example, Detroit’s lone loss came at home against the Tampa Bay Bucs. The Lions outgained the Bucs by 250 total yards in that game, and somehow lost the game. That’s a game the Lions win 95% of the time. Additionally, the Dallas final score against the Ravens earlier this year was more than phony. They got down 28-3 in the game, but scored multiple touchdowns late after a ridiculous collapse by Baltimore that included the Cowboys recovering an onside kick. The reality is if that score ends up closer to what it was heading into the 4th, and the Lions don’t blow that game to Tampa, this could easily be closer to 5 or 6.
My point is this is a MASSIVE mismatch. I am not one to call “LOCKS” but this is my play of the year so far. We are going to go with a FIVE STAR (2.5% of our entire bankroll) on the DETROIT LIONS here this Sunday. Lay the 3. REALLY try to get 3. Lay -3 at -123 or better. Anything over that level of juice, you’re better off taking 3.5 (meaning -3 at -123 = bet, -3 at -124 = no bet, take -3.5 at -110 instead)
Official Pick: Detroit Lions -3
Non-Official Plays:
Teaser of the Week: Jaguars +8.5 to Eagles -2.5
Look we’ve struggled with teasers this year - so rather than actually give this one out as an official I’ll just say maybe throw .5% on there. Or stay away from these until we get back on track. We’re going Eagles to Jags for this teaser.
Total of the Week: Tampa Bay Bucs @ New Orleans Saints OVER 42.5
This number is just very short. Yes, the Saints defense has been better this year than in the past couple seasons. However, injuries are starting to pile up, and they’ve regressed the last couple of weeks. On the other side the Bucs D is an ABSOLUTE SIV. I truly believe it’s one of the worst units in the NFL .
College Football Best Bets (10/12/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | October 12, 2024 | 4:05 A.M. CST
CFB Best Bets 2024-2025 Season
Overall Record:: 18-12 (60.0%)
Last Week: 5-0 (100.0%)
Week 7 Best Bets: Don’t love the card like I did last week, but there’s still some good value on a few plays here.
Best Bets Below are ALL 2 Star Plays
Best Bet No. 1: Vanderbilt +14 @ Kentucky
Look, as a guy who loves to bet spots at times, this is not a good spot for Vanderbilt. UK is coming off a bye and Vandy is coming off the biggest win in program history. BUT, if spot isn’t a massive factor, I bet numbers, not teams. And the number here is wrong.
Think about it this way. Alabama laid 22 at Vanderbilt last week. Vanderbilt has the worst homefield advantage in the power 5. So let’s call it Bama -23 over Vandy on a neutral. Two weeks ago Georgia laid 2.5 AT Alabama, which means Georgia would be around a 5 point favorite against Bama on a neutral. Georgia laid 24 at Kentucky. So they would be a 27 point favorite over UK on a neutral. This current line is telling us Kentucky is an 11 point favorite over Vanderbilt on a neutral field. I know all of that is confusing, but what I mean with all of this is that ACCORDING TO VEGAS if Georgia met Kentucky on a neutral field, Georgia would be -27, and that means then, that Bama would be laying around 22 on a neutral field to Kentucky. And as I mentioned just a few seconds ago, Bama would be laying 22 to Vanderbilt at a neutral field.
Why is all of that important? Because Vegas is telling us BASED ON THE LAST 2-3 WEEKS, that Vanderbilt and Kentucky are basically EVEN teams. Kentucky and Vandy on a neutral field would be a pick ‘em. But for some reason, the line is TWO TDs. Which really means 11 points on a neutral field. So this line, then, according to Vegas’s last few weeks, is 11 points off. And should be closer to UK -1 or so.
With all of that in mind, It’s too hard to pass up that kind of value. 14 points is a lot, even in a road game in a bad spot. Vandy has the offensive firepower to pull off a backdoor cover if all goes to shit. But more importantly, Kentucky’s offense is anemic and they are going to have a tough time covering more than 2 TDs
Best Bet No. 2: Ohio State -3 vs. Oregon
Im my opinion, this game was probably properly priced at 4 to 4.5. My power rankings have Ohio State a 7 point favorite on a neutral field over Oregon, so I agreed with the open more than where it is now. At -3 this line is way too short
Ohio State has the better offensive and defensive line, they have had the more impressive performances, they have the better skill position players, and overall the better team. Yes Autzen is a tough place to play, but I like the Scarlett and Grey here in this one
Best Bet No. 3: Kansas State @ Colorado OVER 55
Short and sweet - both offenses are elite, both defenses are not good
Colorado will light up that K-State secondary
K-State will have a field day running all over CU’s defense
I could see this turning into a real shootout
Try to get 55 - that’s a very key number in college totals
Missed the Card:
Boise State/Hawaii OVER 59.5, Iowa State +3 vs. ISU, USC +4 vs. Penn State, Cal +3.5 @ Pittsburgh
Note: Missed the card means I considered, but didn’t actually get there because of whatever reason. If I give an “Opinion” it means I liked the play enough to bet a few bucks on it, but not to make it an official play. So my opinions have done quite well, but just missed the card means I didn’t bet it at all. So take those with a grain of salt.
College Football Week 6 Best Bets (10/5/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | October 5, 2024 | 2:44 A.M. CST
We are in the green (13-12), despite some really tough beats to start the year. Let’s see if we can’t get some separation and get this season on track here after 2-2 last week.
Best Bets:
Best Bet No. 1: Washington Huskies -1.5 or ML (-120 or better) vs. Michigan
We’re going with the Washington Huskies here for our best bet. I gave this one out early in the week on the podcast, and for some reason we’ve seen this line trend down closer to pick ‘em, which is quite surprising. It wouldn’t surprise if Saturday morning we start to see money come in on Washington, because sharp money coming in on Michigan makes no sense (looks like a dummy move). When we look at this Washington team, they come into this matchup 3-2, however their record is quite deceiving. Let’s dive into the matchup
Post Game Win Expectancy: One metric I love looking at mid-season is called “Post-Game Win Expectancy” (PGWE). Essentially, what that number tells us is based on what happened in the game (the box score, how the game played out, how efficient each team was), this is the probability that a team wins this game.
So, for example, take Texas early in the year playing Louisiana Monroe: they win that game by 50+ points, and absolutely dominate every aspect of the game. In that case, Texas’ PGWE would be 100% and Louisiana Monroe’s would be 0%, because based on what happened in the game, if that game was played out 100 times, Texas would win every single time.
Example number 2, let’s look at week 1 in the NFL where the Chicago Bears beat the Tennessee Titans by 7. However, Chicago had just 148 yards of total offense, and gained less than 3 yards per play in that game, while the Titans had over 150 more total yards, and gained over 1 yard per play more. However, the Bears scored 2 non-offensive TDs (blocked punt and interception return), which allowed them to somehow, improbably, win the game. Although the Bears won, if that game was played 100 times over, the Titans are much more likely to win, as blocked punts and interceptions returned for TDs are not highly repeatable. Therefore, the Bears won the game, but their PGWE was less than 10%. The way I think about it is the PROBABILITY A TEAM SHOULD HAVE WON THE GAME. Keep that in mind as we refer to it here.
So back to the Washington Huskies. They started the season 3-2, with losses at home to Washington State and at Rutgers. Loss number 1, the Huskies outgained Washington State by 71 yards, over 1.0 yards per play, and had a success rate of 50% compared to WSU’s 43% (% of successful plays on offense). That led to Washington having a PGWE of 78% (they win that game 8 out of 10 times). Loss number 2 was arguably worse, which was their most recent outing at Rutgers. Washington outgained Rutgers by a STAGGERING 222 total yards, including over 3 yards per pass, 1.5 yards per rush, and 2.7 yards per play (meaning they literally gained 2.7 yards MORE than Rutgers every time each team snapped the ball). However, Washington was unable to convert trips into Rutgers territory into points (7 trips inside Rutgers 40 yard line, just 10 total points). A big reason for that was the FG kicker for Washington (who was quite reliable last year, as well as this season until this game), went 1/4 on FGAs in the game, including misses from inside of 40 and 30 yards. He also missed a potential game-tying 50 yard FG as time expired, which ultimately gave Rutgers the win. Once again, despite the loss, Washington had a PGWE of 83%.
My point in describing all of this is that while some will see Washington’s 3-2 record, and wonder how they could possibly be laying points to the #10 team in the country, the reasons outlined above are exactly why that’s the case; Washington absolutely SHOULD BE 5-0, and metrically the line absolutely makes sense
Michigan on the other hand, comes into this game 4-1, fresh off back-to-back wins. They are 2-0 since making the switch at QB to Alex Orji. Again, on the surface, that looks great. The Wolverines got smacked at home by the Longhorns in week 2, but after making Orji their starting QB, came back and upset top 10 ranked USC at home as a 5.5 point underdog week 4. The problem with Michigan is that in their current form they completely rely on a specific game script in order to be successful. That means, the Wolverines MUST get a lead early, lean on their run game, shorten the game, and make teams play from behind against their solid defense. That’s been the way they’ve won their first two Big 10 games this season. The problem is, what happens to this Michigan team if they trail early on? Alex Orji in his two career starts (the last two weeks) has thrown for 113 yards; not per game, IN TOTAL. That’s less than 60 yards per game. And that came against two middle of the pack defenses (Minnesota and USC are both outside the top 35 in defensive efficiency). The Michigan passing attack is absolutely pathetic. And it’s unlikely that we’re going to see much improvement as time goes on, because Orji just isn’t a good passer. He’s a glorified RB who throws the ball when he absolutely has to in order to keep defenses honest. And, unfortunately for Michigan fans, he’s the best they have this year.
In addition to the offense not being good this year, the defense has not been close to as good as last year. Now of course you expect a team that loses significant personnel to drop off some, but the last two weeks were concerning. USC trailed by double digits late in the game, and Miller Moss went up and down the field on them, giving the Trojans a lead with under 5 minutes to play. It took a late Michigan 70+ yard drive to save the game for the Wolverines. Then last week, Michigan had a 27-0 lead against Minnesota in the second half, with an offense that has been historically bad and hasn’t looked any better this year. And yet, the Wolverine D allowed the Golden Gophers to score 24 unanswered points to end the game, cutting the lead all the way down to 3 with under 2 minutes to play. In fact, there was a legitimate shot for Minnesota to win this game outright as a double digit dog. How? Because down 24-27, the Gophers RECOVERED an onside kick, which gave them the ball past midfield, only needing a FG to tie or a TD to win. And having scored a TD on three consecutive possessions in the 4th quarter, the Michigan Defense was in big trouble. Inexplicably, an official threw a penalty on Minnesota for offsides on the onside kick, a call that was proven 100% incorrect by video review. It truly saved the game for the Wolverines. Thus, just as we talked about how easy it would be for Washington to be 5-0, Michigan could just as easily be 3-2. And if those records were the case, what’s this line at that point? Probably closer to Washington laying a TD.
In addition to all the information above, also throw in that this is Michigan’s first true road game of the season. In fact, it’s the first time all year they’ll leave the confines of Ann Arbor to play a game at all (all of their 1st 5 games came at the Big House). And, not only are they going on the road for the first time, with a QB who’s never made a true road start, but they also are making an unfamiliar trip. This will be the first time that the Wolverines travel this far to the west coast for a CONFERENCE GAME as the Huskies are now in the Big 10. While they may be used to trips to the midwest, now they are changing time zones, and that’s just another factor to consider here when looking to take Washington or fade Michigan.
And lastly, we have a huge coaching edge to Washington. Sherron Moore was a terrible hire by Michigan. They could’ve had Kalen DeBoer, or Jessee Minter, and instead they decided to go with the one guy who actually did a below average job during the National Title run. And it’s clear as day that in-game he struggles. On the other side Jedd Fisch is an excellent coach. He proved his worth turning a terrible Arizona program around. He will win here at Washington sooner rather than later. And in a game where I believe the two teams are relatively close, we’re getting the better coaching staff, the better quarterback, and home field advantage. Plus Washington played early last week, which gave them an extra day to prepare for this game. I love the Huskies in this spot. Take them on the moneyline at -120 or better. If you don’t have that available -1.5 is fine too. Really anything below the key number of 3 is a good wager.
OFFICIAL PICK: Washington -1.5 or -120
Best Bet No. 2: Navy @ Air Force OVER 35
Full disclosure I got this at 34.5 early in the week. I was SHOCKED to see that number below 5 TDs. On the surface, you think “service academy game” means UNDER. And, traditionally you’d be correct. The problem with that theory is it assumes that both teams only run the triple option all game long. While Navy does run the triple option at times, they have significantly altered their offense this year, throwing the ball significantly more than they have in any year in the past decade. The Midshipman have a QB who can absolutely spin it back there, and they even line up in a traditional shotgun formation at times (unheard of for service academies).
On the other side we have an Air Force team that has been nothing short of horrific. While the defense hasn’t been terrible as a whole, the Falcons have given up 30+ points in back-to-back games against two below average offenses. They allowed 31 to Baylor two weeks ago. That Bears team was starting a backup QB and had really struggled to move the ball up until that game. They followed that up with a trip to Wyoming who was WINLESS and who had metrically one of the 5 worst offenses in the FBS. That same offense put up 31 on this Falcons defense last week.
When looking at the number here, again you can see why the oddsmakers may be thinking low scoring. However, understand that Navy has played 4 games this season (4-0). In all 4 games Navy has gone over this total on its own. The lowest point total Navy has eclipsed this season was 38 points three weeks ago against Temple. Thus, I absolutely would not be surprised if Navy was able to go over this number on their own. However, it’s not as though we should expect to have to do that, as the Navy defense is NOTHING to write home about. Week 1 they gave up 21 points to an FCS school in Bucknell. Week 3 they allowed Memphis to drop 44. And even last week against a bad UAB offense, they still allowed 18. Even Temple, the worst offense in the FBS put up 11 on this Navy defense. Let’s say worst case scenario Air Force can’t even eclipse 11 and scores 10. In order to lose this bet, Navy would have to put up 2 TDs less than their lowest point total this season. I just don’t see that happening. I believe a ton of people will blindly bet the under in this game, not knowing the offensive capabilities of this year’s Navy team. And I believe this total is off by nearly 10 points. We’re taking the value here all day. Try to get 35, but I like this up to 37.5
OFFICIAL PICK: Navy @ Air Force OVER 35
Best Bet No. 3: Georgia Tech -9.5 vs. Duke
I’ll try to keep this one shorter and as simple as possible: this is a TERRIBLE spot for Duke and a great spot for Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets are coming into this game 3-2, while the Blue Devils come in a perfect 5-0. Once again, records can be deceiving. Georgia Tech is legitimately 3 plays away from being undefeated this season. Week 3 they lost to a Syracuse team on the road purely because they were not ready to play. Cuse jumped on them and GT was fighting back all night, yet still had a shot to win the game late. One failed 3rd down conversion attempt was likely the difference in a win vs. a loss. The second loss for GT came two weeks ago against Louisville. The Jackets were a 10.5 point underdog, and led 7-0 in the game. Georgia Tech ended up losing the game 31-19, and not only should’ve covered the 10.5, they should’ve won the game outright. In fact, Louisville had just one offensive TD the entire game. They scored on a fumble return for a TD and on a late blocked FG returned for a TD. Those two fluke plays swung the game from a GT outright win, to a Louisville win and cover. It was a tough loss for GT, and an even tougher loss for GT backers that day (myself included). However, there were a lot of positive to take away from that game. Louisville was supposed to be a top 20 defense this year, and yet GT was able to move the ball up and down the field against them all day long. Additionally, the GT defense showed well against Tyler Shough and the Cardinal offense.
Now GT is coming into this one off that most recent loss. Thus, they’re going to be highly motivated knowing this is a huge swing game in their season. Additionally, the Jackets were on a bye last week, so they’ve had a full extra week to prepare for this Duke team. And keep in mind this is a Duke team coming in a perfect 5-0. So there’s zero chance that GT will be overlooking them in this spot. The Jackets will be dialed in
Duke on the other hand is coming in off a big, emotional win over their RIVAL in North Carolina. The Blue Devils trailed 20-0 in that game last week. At one point in the 2nd half, UNC had a 98% chance to win the game (leading by 20 with the ball). However, a crazy quarter and a half of football later, and somehow, someway Duke emerged victorious by a single point, 21-20. A PGWE of below 50% also backs up that Duke had no business winning that game. Malik Murphy (Duke QB, Transfer from Texas) looked horrible in the game against UNC prior to that comeback. In fact, in the game as a whole he completed less than 50% of his passes. It’s not as though this game was an outlier by any means though, as Duke had a very close win over Northwestern earlier in the season after trailing late in that game, winning in double overtime.
Overall, there’s a reason GT is nearly a double digit favorite, and continues taking money, despite being 3-2 facing a 5-0 team. The Jackets are far superior in the trenches, they have the better QB, and they have a distinct spot advantage with extra rest, while Duke is coming in off an emotional win. This is a big let down spot for Duke, and I expect GT to roll here by 2+ TDs, possibly by 20+
OFFICIAL PICK: Georgia Tech -9.5
Best Bet No. 4: Marshall -3 vs. App State/Marshall -2.5 1st Half vs. App State (Split half and half)
Marshall comes into this game the much better team. We can start with that. The Thundering Heard have been especially good in the first half this year. On the other hand, App State has been very disappointing as a whole. And they have been significantly WORSE early in games. In fact, if it weren’t for a comeback after being down 16-0 against East Carolina, this App State team would likely have just one win on the season, entering this game.
Now all of that said, I think Marshall is going to be the side here in this game regardless, but the reason I’m high on this play is more than that - it’s the spot. App State had their game cancelled last week due to the impact of the flooding on their campus and their community. It’s extremely unfortunate for those kids and that area, however it’s also really hindered their ability to practice and maintain a normal schedule. The odds that this App State team comes into this game focused are highly unlikely. Not only have they been off for two weeks from games, but we don’t even know if they’ve really been able to practice. Already not a very good team, now they are coming in to face a solid Marshall team in a really tough spot
The reason I want to split this is because I’ve seen Marshall be significantly better early in games (as mentioned). I also think if we get any fight from App State here, it could come late. I’d be shocked to see them come out and execute extremely well early in the game, considering what they’ve been dealing with the last week plus. Additionally, not even factoring in the hurricane, this App State team has been significantly worse early in games anyways. As mentioned they did make a comeback against ECU earlier in the season. So because of that we’re going to split this half and half. I do like both (first half and game). I think more than likely we see Marshall jump on them and hold on. But because of what I’ve seen from this Marshall team and this App State team we’re going to take a little insurance and play both the first half and the game here. We also get to lay less than a FG by taking the first half too. So I like that aspect as well
OFFICIAL PICK: Marshall -3 | Marshall -2.5 (1H): Split 1 Unit on Each
Opinions/Possible Additions: These are plays that currently are not on my official card for best bets, but could be added during the day tomorrow. Most of these I’ve bet myself, but I’ve bet them smaller than my best bets (say .25% to .5% of bankroll)
Stanford +8.5 vs. VT: Virginia Tech making an unfamiliar trip to California for a conference game, coming off that emotional, heartbreaking loss. We got VT’s all in performance last week against Miami. It feels like it’s going to be a big let down spot for VT. While Stanford sees this as a huge game for their season if they want to have bowl game aspirations. Also Stanford is phenomenal in this role as a dog of 7-10 points the last few seasons.
Minnesota +8 vs. USC: Minnesota at home taking on a USC team that I believe is quite overrated. They trailed Wisconsin (who is horrible) 21-10 in the second half last week, and Wisconsin absolutely collapsed and allowed USC to not only win, but cover a big number. Minnesota was horrible early against Michigan, but somehow found a way to fight back, and should’ve had a shot to win the game late if it weren’t for a terrible offside call by the officials on an onside kick. Minnesota at home, catching more than a TD. This feels like a trappy spot for USC, who had no business covering a big number last week, and very well could’ve lost outright to a bad team with a backup QB.
Vandy +23 vs. Bama: Vandy has two losses this year by a combined 7 points. Bama is coming in off their biggest win of the season. And, as good as they looked against UGA in the first half last week, they did not look good in the final 40 minutes of that game. If the UGA CB turns his head around on Bama’s final drive, they likely lose the game. Additionally, Bama was in no way dominant early in the year against bad competition. Struggled to pull away from Wisconsin until their QB got hurt. Very well could’ve lost outright at home to South Florida. I mean, if you take out the first half performance by Bama last week, I’m not sure how you possibly get anywhere NEAR 23. It’s just the ceiling of Bama that’s scaring me and possibly keeping me off this. But I really think Vandy is more than a shot to cover here. I somehow think they are a live dog in this game. I wouldn’t be shocked if Bama lost this outright. It’s a bold statement, but Vandy is not bad this year
Other Opinions I have NOT Bet, but considered: Bowling Green State -16, UCONN -17, Louisville -6.5, Georgia -22, Baylor/ISU UNDER 44.5, Pittsburgh -2.5, Texas A&M -2, Navy -9.5
Note: Any official adds will be posted below, at the bottom of this page or on a new blog post. Good luck with all your bets!!
Minnesota Lynx @ Connecticut Sun Game 3 Best Bet (10/4/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | October 4, 2024 | 5:32 P.M. CST
WNBA Conference Finals: Minnesota Lynx +2.5 (-110) @ Connecticut Sun -2.5 (-110) | Total: 150.5
Location: Connecticut
Time: 6:30 P.M. CST
Series Count: Tied 1-1 (Best of 5 Series)
Summary:
The Minnesota Lynx travel to Connecticut tonight, as they attempt to regain home court along with control of this series. The Lynx finished the regular season winning 14 of their final 15 games (excluding the final game of the season in which no starters played). They were by far the hottest team in the WNBA down the stretch. They handled the Phoenix Mercury in the first round of the playoffs, sweeping them 2 games to 0. However, despite the hot streak entering the Conference Finals, the Lynx dropped game 1 at home to the Connecticut Sun, 70-73, for just their 5th loss at home all season. Minnesota was able to bounce back in game 2, with a much better shooting performance from beyond the arc, securing a 77-70 win. They led from start to finish in game 2, and looked much more like themselves. Yet we sit here on Friday night with the Lynx a short UNDERDOG in this game, and the Sun taking professional money. Here’s why I believe the line move is incorrect, as I believe the Lynx have a great shot to win the game tonight.
In addition to being THE hottest team in the WNBA post-Olympic break, the Lynx were especially good on the road down the stretch. In fact they come into this matchup with the Sun on a 5-game road winning streak, winning 8 of their last 9 on the road in total. Additionally, not only were the Lynx good on the road, they were especially good against the better teams in the league. In fact, the Lynx were 9-4 on the road this regular season against playoff teams, winning 6 in a row vs. those teams to close the season. That means when they step up in class, and they do so away from Minnesota, they tend to win the game outright. Now, yes the Lynx are just 1-2 against the Sun in head-to-head matchups in the regular season, but I don’t put much stock in a regular season series compared to a playoff series.
Moreover, one thing that the stats show from the first two games of this series is that the BETTER SHOOTING TEAM is likely to win the game. Game 1 the Sun shot over 40% from three, while the Lynx struggled mightily (25%). The outcome was predictable, with the Sun squeaking out a close game 73-70. Despite the large gap in shooting, Minnesota still had 3 possessions in the final minute to either tie or win the game. On the other hand, in game 2, Minnesota was the team who shot above 40% while Connecticut shot sub 30%. Even more positively, while game 1 still came down to the final possession, game 2 did not. The large gap in shooting efficiency from behind the arc allowed the Lynx to run away with it, and despite the final score being a 7 point win for the Lynx, they were never in jeopardy of losing the game. The reason I bring this up is because we are looking at a series that very well could be decided based upon which team shoots it better from three. In the regular season the Lynx shot over 37% from beyond the arc, while the Sun shot just 32% (one of the lowest in the league). In the playoffs both teams have shot it better, with Minnesota shooting over 38% and Connecticut shooting it just around 35%. So, we have a Minnesota team that has proven over a large sample size that they are a significantly better shooting team than the Sun, and we are likely to see three pointers decide this game.
With all that in mind, we always have to take into account price. First looking at the moneyline, you can find the Lynx at +120. That means an implied odds of winning for Minnesota of 45.5%. Essentially, in order for us to break even in the long run, the Lynx have to win this game 45.5% of the time. My ACTUAL ODDS calculated this matchup at a 53.2% probability that the Lynx win this game. So what does that mean? It means according to my calculations and how I evaluate these teams, we have a 7.7% edge on the Lynx, which would mean we absolutely have to back them on the moneyline.
Now I want to add one thing. The line on this game is the Sun -2.5. The reason I bring this up, is because normally I would take +120 in this spot in a professional basketball game as opposed to taking the 2.5. However, the WNBA is much different than the NBA with the way teams foul and how end of games tend to play out. Therefore, it’s worth noting some things about possibly grabbing the points. The Sun won 28 games this season, 3 of which came by 2 points or less (10.7% of their wins came by 3 or less). That’s a pretty significant number, especially when you consider that one of those 2 point wins came against the Lynx. Additionally, the Lynx lost 10 games in the regular season this year. 2 of those 10 were by 1 or 2 points (20% of all losses). So we’re looking at a legitimate probability of around 15% that if Minnesota loses and if Connecticut wins, the win is by 1 or 2. You take into account that the two playoff games have been decided by 3 and 7, and the totals in those games have been in the 140s. So while the moneyline is definitely a +EV play. So is the +2.5. So let’s lay both, half a star with each.
Best Bet: Minnesota Lynx +2.5 (-110) for 1% | Minnesota Lynx +120 (ML) for 1%
NFL Best Bet (Teaser of the Week) 10/3/24
Author: Dylan Lieck | October 3, 2024 | 6:09 P.M. CST
Best Bet: 2 Team NFL 6 Point Teaser: Bucs +8.5 to Raiders +8.5
Bucs +8.5: We’re fading a bad Atlanta offense, who’s low PPG are even more deceiving considering they did not score an offensive TD last week at home against the Saints. We’re going to make them cover more than a TD against a good team, with solid backdoor capabilities if all goes wrong and the Bucs are down 2 scores late.
Raiders +9: Same thing here, we are fading a bad offensive team, and specifically a terrible NFL QB. Bo Nix may be the worst QB in the league. Last week he threw for -7 yards on 7/15 in the first half against the Jets. Should the Broncos really be laying points here with an offense that bad? Probably not, but I’m not super high on the Raiders, and they will likely still be without Davante Adams. That said, I’d be shocked to see the Broncos score over 17 points in this game, which means we are going to need 9 points to win this bet. Three field goals, a TD + a FG, or two TDs. Doesn’t matter how we get there, but theme of the week is fade bad teams and make them beat us by margin. We’ll take the Raiders
OFFICIAL BET: Bucs +8.5 | Raiders +9 (-110)
Play Rating: 3-Star
Monday Night Madness: MNF Prop Bets (9/30/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | September 30, 2024 | 5:29 P.M. CST
Prop Play of the Night:
Same Game Parlay:
Tony Pollard Anytime TD (+129) | Tyreek Hill Anytime TD (+170)
Payout: +525
Straight Bet of the Night (Not Official Play)
Miami Dolphins -2.5 vs. Tennessee Titans
Best of Luck on Monday Night!!