College Basketball Best Bets (11/14/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | November 14, 2024 | 11:22 A.M. CST
College basketball is BACK baby! This has historically been my best sport wagering wise. I’ve had 11 consecutive winning seasons and I continued to smash college hoops last year, finishing with over a 64% win rate. I hope to continue that this year. If you do happen to check these posts and get winners from me, please considering supporting the website by subscribing to our patreon. Click Here to go to the page!
Let’s get into the first official release of the season.
College Basketball Best Bet: Arizona State +5.5 vs. Grand Canyon
When looking at this number initially I was a bit confused. Grand Canyon is definitely a team that has NCAA tournament potential. After reaching the Big Dance two years in a row, they not only returned last season, but they actually got their first ever NCAA tournament victory, upsetting St. Mary’s in the first round. In fact, they hung with Alabama (who went all the way to the Final Four) until the final few minutes in the Round of 32, however they were unable to pull off a second consecutive upset.
The Antelopes return a TON of production from last year’s team, including leading scorer and future NBA draft pick Tyon Grant-Foster. It was actually a surprise to me that he decided to comeback, as some mock drafts had him as a projected first round pick (in a weak draft class) where he may not be that this coming season in a much more loaded class. Regardless, the return of Grant-Foster is clearly why the Lopes are getting so much love from the books early in the season.
The problem, is Arizona State is getting significantly UNDER valued so far this season. The Sun Devils have a largely new squad this year, which is very normal in the current world of college athletics. But that’s not to say they didn’t add some very good talent. Alston Mason, a transfer from Missouri State (started his career at OU) comes over after averaging nearly 18 per game last season as a junior. Additionally, Bobby Hurley Basheer Jihad, a senior who spent three years at Ball State University. Jihad averaged only 2.7 points as a freshman, but improved it to 7.1 as a sophomore, and then led the team in scoring with 18.6 ppg last year as a junior. To add to that, they added BJ Freeman, a Milwauke University transfer who averaged 21.1 ppg as a sophomore last season as well. So the Devils added THREE LEGIT scorers to their squad who can give you 30 on any given night.
Now, it’s not surprising that GCU is getting more love than ASU, with one team returning a ton of production while the other is basically a group of individuals still getting used to each other. HOWEVER, that doesn’t take away the fact that from a PURE TALENT perspective, this number is absolutely off. I initially thought this game had to be AT Grand Canyon (they have one of the best home court advantages in the country). But that’s not the case, as this is a NEUTRAL location game (Footprint Center in Phoenix, Arizona). So initially I made this game (based on pre-season projections) a pick ‘em on a neutral. And that’s all before looking at what’s occurred so far this season.
Arizona State has one legitimate datapoint and it came last game against Gonzaga. The game was a TRUE ROAD game for the Sun Devils, and they went into Spokane as a 20+ point underdog and hung with the Zags punch for punch. Keep in mind, this is a Gonzaga team who SPANKED top 10 ranked Baylor by 40+ points in the first game of the season. This ASU team is a LEGIT player this year. With all that in mind, I think this could legitimately be ASU -2. And we’re CATCHING 5.5. So we’re backing Arizona State here, and sprinkle a little bit on the ML!!
Official Pick: Arizona State +5.5
Play Rating: 2-Star
