College Football Week 6 Best Bets (10/5/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | October 5, 2024 | 2:44 A.M. CST
We are in the green (13-12), despite some really tough beats to start the year. Let’s see if we can’t get some separation and get this season on track here after 2-2 last week.
Best Bets:
Best Bet No. 1: Washington Huskies -1.5 or ML (-120 or better) vs. Michigan
We’re going with the Washington Huskies here for our best bet. I gave this one out early in the week on the podcast, and for some reason we’ve seen this line trend down closer to pick ‘em, which is quite surprising. It wouldn’t surprise if Saturday morning we start to see money come in on Washington, because sharp money coming in on Michigan makes no sense (looks like a dummy move). When we look at this Washington team, they come into this matchup 3-2, however their record is quite deceiving. Let’s dive into the matchup
Post Game Win Expectancy: One metric I love looking at mid-season is called “Post-Game Win Expectancy” (PGWE). Essentially, what that number tells us is based on what happened in the game (the box score, how the game played out, how efficient each team was), this is the probability that a team wins this game.
So, for example, take Texas early in the year playing Louisiana Monroe: they win that game by 50+ points, and absolutely dominate every aspect of the game. In that case, Texas’ PGWE would be 100% and Louisiana Monroe’s would be 0%, because based on what happened in the game, if that game was played out 100 times, Texas would win every single time.
Example number 2, let’s look at week 1 in the NFL where the Chicago Bears beat the Tennessee Titans by 7. However, Chicago had just 148 yards of total offense, and gained less than 3 yards per play in that game, while the Titans had over 150 more total yards, and gained over 1 yard per play more. However, the Bears scored 2 non-offensive TDs (blocked punt and interception return), which allowed them to somehow, improbably, win the game. Although the Bears won, if that game was played 100 times over, the Titans are much more likely to win, as blocked punts and interceptions returned for TDs are not highly repeatable. Therefore, the Bears won the game, but their PGWE was less than 10%. The way I think about it is the PROBABILITY A TEAM SHOULD HAVE WON THE GAME. Keep that in mind as we refer to it here.
So back to the Washington Huskies. They started the season 3-2, with losses at home to Washington State and at Rutgers. Loss number 1, the Huskies outgained Washington State by 71 yards, over 1.0 yards per play, and had a success rate of 50% compared to WSU’s 43% (% of successful plays on offense). That led to Washington having a PGWE of 78% (they win that game 8 out of 10 times). Loss number 2 was arguably worse, which was their most recent outing at Rutgers. Washington outgained Rutgers by a STAGGERING 222 total yards, including over 3 yards per pass, 1.5 yards per rush, and 2.7 yards per play (meaning they literally gained 2.7 yards MORE than Rutgers every time each team snapped the ball). However, Washington was unable to convert trips into Rutgers territory into points (7 trips inside Rutgers 40 yard line, just 10 total points). A big reason for that was the FG kicker for Washington (who was quite reliable last year, as well as this season until this game), went 1/4 on FGAs in the game, including misses from inside of 40 and 30 yards. He also missed a potential game-tying 50 yard FG as time expired, which ultimately gave Rutgers the win. Once again, despite the loss, Washington had a PGWE of 83%.
My point in describing all of this is that while some will see Washington’s 3-2 record, and wonder how they could possibly be laying points to the #10 team in the country, the reasons outlined above are exactly why that’s the case; Washington absolutely SHOULD BE 5-0, and metrically the line absolutely makes sense
Michigan on the other hand, comes into this game 4-1, fresh off back-to-back wins. They are 2-0 since making the switch at QB to Alex Orji. Again, on the surface, that looks great. The Wolverines got smacked at home by the Longhorns in week 2, but after making Orji their starting QB, came back and upset top 10 ranked USC at home as a 5.5 point underdog week 4. The problem with Michigan is that in their current form they completely rely on a specific game script in order to be successful. That means, the Wolverines MUST get a lead early, lean on their run game, shorten the game, and make teams play from behind against their solid defense. That’s been the way they’ve won their first two Big 10 games this season. The problem is, what happens to this Michigan team if they trail early on? Alex Orji in his two career starts (the last two weeks) has thrown for 113 yards; not per game, IN TOTAL. That’s less than 60 yards per game. And that came against two middle of the pack defenses (Minnesota and USC are both outside the top 35 in defensive efficiency). The Michigan passing attack is absolutely pathetic. And it’s unlikely that we’re going to see much improvement as time goes on, because Orji just isn’t a good passer. He’s a glorified RB who throws the ball when he absolutely has to in order to keep defenses honest. And, unfortunately for Michigan fans, he’s the best they have this year.
In addition to the offense not being good this year, the defense has not been close to as good as last year. Now of course you expect a team that loses significant personnel to drop off some, but the last two weeks were concerning. USC trailed by double digits late in the game, and Miller Moss went up and down the field on them, giving the Trojans a lead with under 5 minutes to play. It took a late Michigan 70+ yard drive to save the game for the Wolverines. Then last week, Michigan had a 27-0 lead against Minnesota in the second half, with an offense that has been historically bad and hasn’t looked any better this year. And yet, the Wolverine D allowed the Golden Gophers to score 24 unanswered points to end the game, cutting the lead all the way down to 3 with under 2 minutes to play. In fact, there was a legitimate shot for Minnesota to win this game outright as a double digit dog. How? Because down 24-27, the Gophers RECOVERED an onside kick, which gave them the ball past midfield, only needing a FG to tie or a TD to win. And having scored a TD on three consecutive possessions in the 4th quarter, the Michigan Defense was in big trouble. Inexplicably, an official threw a penalty on Minnesota for offsides on the onside kick, a call that was proven 100% incorrect by video review. It truly saved the game for the Wolverines. Thus, just as we talked about how easy it would be for Washington to be 5-0, Michigan could just as easily be 3-2. And if those records were the case, what’s this line at that point? Probably closer to Washington laying a TD.
In addition to all the information above, also throw in that this is Michigan’s first true road game of the season. In fact, it’s the first time all year they’ll leave the confines of Ann Arbor to play a game at all (all of their 1st 5 games came at the Big House). And, not only are they going on the road for the first time, with a QB who’s never made a true road start, but they also are making an unfamiliar trip. This will be the first time that the Wolverines travel this far to the west coast for a CONFERENCE GAME as the Huskies are now in the Big 10. While they may be used to trips to the midwest, now they are changing time zones, and that’s just another factor to consider here when looking to take Washington or fade Michigan.
And lastly, we have a huge coaching edge to Washington. Sherron Moore was a terrible hire by Michigan. They could’ve had Kalen DeBoer, or Jessee Minter, and instead they decided to go with the one guy who actually did a below average job during the National Title run. And it’s clear as day that in-game he struggles. On the other side Jedd Fisch is an excellent coach. He proved his worth turning a terrible Arizona program around. He will win here at Washington sooner rather than later. And in a game where I believe the two teams are relatively close, we’re getting the better coaching staff, the better quarterback, and home field advantage. Plus Washington played early last week, which gave them an extra day to prepare for this game. I love the Huskies in this spot. Take them on the moneyline at -120 or better. If you don’t have that available -1.5 is fine too. Really anything below the key number of 3 is a good wager.
OFFICIAL PICK: Washington -1.5 or -120
Best Bet No. 2: Navy @ Air Force OVER 35
Full disclosure I got this at 34.5 early in the week. I was SHOCKED to see that number below 5 TDs. On the surface, you think “service academy game” means UNDER. And, traditionally you’d be correct. The problem with that theory is it assumes that both teams only run the triple option all game long. While Navy does run the triple option at times, they have significantly altered their offense this year, throwing the ball significantly more than they have in any year in the past decade. The Midshipman have a QB who can absolutely spin it back there, and they even line up in a traditional shotgun formation at times (unheard of for service academies).
On the other side we have an Air Force team that has been nothing short of horrific. While the defense hasn’t been terrible as a whole, the Falcons have given up 30+ points in back-to-back games against two below average offenses. They allowed 31 to Baylor two weeks ago. That Bears team was starting a backup QB and had really struggled to move the ball up until that game. They followed that up with a trip to Wyoming who was WINLESS and who had metrically one of the 5 worst offenses in the FBS. That same offense put up 31 on this Falcons defense last week.
When looking at the number here, again you can see why the oddsmakers may be thinking low scoring. However, understand that Navy has played 4 games this season (4-0). In all 4 games Navy has gone over this total on its own. The lowest point total Navy has eclipsed this season was 38 points three weeks ago against Temple. Thus, I absolutely would not be surprised if Navy was able to go over this number on their own. However, it’s not as though we should expect to have to do that, as the Navy defense is NOTHING to write home about. Week 1 they gave up 21 points to an FCS school in Bucknell. Week 3 they allowed Memphis to drop 44. And even last week against a bad UAB offense, they still allowed 18. Even Temple, the worst offense in the FBS put up 11 on this Navy defense. Let’s say worst case scenario Air Force can’t even eclipse 11 and scores 10. In order to lose this bet, Navy would have to put up 2 TDs less than their lowest point total this season. I just don’t see that happening. I believe a ton of people will blindly bet the under in this game, not knowing the offensive capabilities of this year’s Navy team. And I believe this total is off by nearly 10 points. We’re taking the value here all day. Try to get 35, but I like this up to 37.5
OFFICIAL PICK: Navy @ Air Force OVER 35
Best Bet No. 3: Georgia Tech -9.5 vs. Duke
I’ll try to keep this one shorter and as simple as possible: this is a TERRIBLE spot for Duke and a great spot for Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets are coming into this game 3-2, while the Blue Devils come in a perfect 5-0. Once again, records can be deceiving. Georgia Tech is legitimately 3 plays away from being undefeated this season. Week 3 they lost to a Syracuse team on the road purely because they were not ready to play. Cuse jumped on them and GT was fighting back all night, yet still had a shot to win the game late. One failed 3rd down conversion attempt was likely the difference in a win vs. a loss. The second loss for GT came two weeks ago against Louisville. The Jackets were a 10.5 point underdog, and led 7-0 in the game. Georgia Tech ended up losing the game 31-19, and not only should’ve covered the 10.5, they should’ve won the game outright. In fact, Louisville had just one offensive TD the entire game. They scored on a fumble return for a TD and on a late blocked FG returned for a TD. Those two fluke plays swung the game from a GT outright win, to a Louisville win and cover. It was a tough loss for GT, and an even tougher loss for GT backers that day (myself included). However, there were a lot of positive to take away from that game. Louisville was supposed to be a top 20 defense this year, and yet GT was able to move the ball up and down the field against them all day long. Additionally, the GT defense showed well against Tyler Shough and the Cardinal offense.
Now GT is coming into this one off that most recent loss. Thus, they’re going to be highly motivated knowing this is a huge swing game in their season. Additionally, the Jackets were on a bye last week, so they’ve had a full extra week to prepare for this Duke team. And keep in mind this is a Duke team coming in a perfect 5-0. So there’s zero chance that GT will be overlooking them in this spot. The Jackets will be dialed in
Duke on the other hand is coming in off a big, emotional win over their RIVAL in North Carolina. The Blue Devils trailed 20-0 in that game last week. At one point in the 2nd half, UNC had a 98% chance to win the game (leading by 20 with the ball). However, a crazy quarter and a half of football later, and somehow, someway Duke emerged victorious by a single point, 21-20. A PGWE of below 50% also backs up that Duke had no business winning that game. Malik Murphy (Duke QB, Transfer from Texas) looked horrible in the game against UNC prior to that comeback. In fact, in the game as a whole he completed less than 50% of his passes. It’s not as though this game was an outlier by any means though, as Duke had a very close win over Northwestern earlier in the season after trailing late in that game, winning in double overtime.
Overall, there’s a reason GT is nearly a double digit favorite, and continues taking money, despite being 3-2 facing a 5-0 team. The Jackets are far superior in the trenches, they have the better QB, and they have a distinct spot advantage with extra rest, while Duke is coming in off an emotional win. This is a big let down spot for Duke, and I expect GT to roll here by 2+ TDs, possibly by 20+
OFFICIAL PICK: Georgia Tech -9.5
Best Bet No. 4: Marshall -3 vs. App State/Marshall -2.5 1st Half vs. App State (Split half and half)
Marshall comes into this game the much better team. We can start with that. The Thundering Heard have been especially good in the first half this year. On the other hand, App State has been very disappointing as a whole. And they have been significantly WORSE early in games. In fact, if it weren’t for a comeback after being down 16-0 against East Carolina, this App State team would likely have just one win on the season, entering this game.
Now all of that said, I think Marshall is going to be the side here in this game regardless, but the reason I’m high on this play is more than that - it’s the spot. App State had their game cancelled last week due to the impact of the flooding on their campus and their community. It’s extremely unfortunate for those kids and that area, however it’s also really hindered their ability to practice and maintain a normal schedule. The odds that this App State team comes into this game focused are highly unlikely. Not only have they been off for two weeks from games, but we don’t even know if they’ve really been able to practice. Already not a very good team, now they are coming in to face a solid Marshall team in a really tough spot
The reason I want to split this is because I’ve seen Marshall be significantly better early in games (as mentioned). I also think if we get any fight from App State here, it could come late. I’d be shocked to see them come out and execute extremely well early in the game, considering what they’ve been dealing with the last week plus. Additionally, not even factoring in the hurricane, this App State team has been significantly worse early in games anyways. As mentioned they did make a comeback against ECU earlier in the season. So because of that we’re going to split this half and half. I do like both (first half and game). I think more than likely we see Marshall jump on them and hold on. But because of what I’ve seen from this Marshall team and this App State team we’re going to take a little insurance and play both the first half and the game here. We also get to lay less than a FG by taking the first half too. So I like that aspect as well
OFFICIAL PICK: Marshall -3 | Marshall -2.5 (1H): Split 1 Unit on Each
Opinions/Possible Additions: These are plays that currently are not on my official card for best bets, but could be added during the day tomorrow. Most of these I’ve bet myself, but I’ve bet them smaller than my best bets (say .25% to .5% of bankroll)
Stanford +8.5 vs. VT: Virginia Tech making an unfamiliar trip to California for a conference game, coming off that emotional, heartbreaking loss. We got VT’s all in performance last week against Miami. It feels like it’s going to be a big let down spot for VT. While Stanford sees this as a huge game for their season if they want to have bowl game aspirations. Also Stanford is phenomenal in this role as a dog of 7-10 points the last few seasons.
Minnesota +8 vs. USC: Minnesota at home taking on a USC team that I believe is quite overrated. They trailed Wisconsin (who is horrible) 21-10 in the second half last week, and Wisconsin absolutely collapsed and allowed USC to not only win, but cover a big number. Minnesota was horrible early against Michigan, but somehow found a way to fight back, and should’ve had a shot to win the game late if it weren’t for a terrible offside call by the officials on an onside kick. Minnesota at home, catching more than a TD. This feels like a trappy spot for USC, who had no business covering a big number last week, and very well could’ve lost outright to a bad team with a backup QB.
Vandy +23 vs. Bama: Vandy has two losses this year by a combined 7 points. Bama is coming in off their biggest win of the season. And, as good as they looked against UGA in the first half last week, they did not look good in the final 40 minutes of that game. If the UGA CB turns his head around on Bama’s final drive, they likely lose the game. Additionally, Bama was in no way dominant early in the year against bad competition. Struggled to pull away from Wisconsin until their QB got hurt. Very well could’ve lost outright at home to South Florida. I mean, if you take out the first half performance by Bama last week, I’m not sure how you possibly get anywhere NEAR 23. It’s just the ceiling of Bama that’s scaring me and possibly keeping me off this. But I really think Vandy is more than a shot to cover here. I somehow think they are a live dog in this game. I wouldn’t be shocked if Bama lost this outright. It’s a bold statement, but Vandy is not bad this year
Other Opinions I have NOT Bet, but considered: Bowling Green State -16, UCONN -17, Louisville -6.5, Georgia -22, Baylor/ISU UNDER 44.5, Pittsburgh -2.5, Texas A&M -2, Navy -9.5
Note: Any official adds will be posted below, at the bottom of this page or on a new blog post. Good luck with all your bets!!
