Thursday Night Football Best Bet + CFB Early Pick

Author: Dylan Lieck | November 7, 2024 | 10:42 A.M. CST

Best Bet TNF: Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens

We’re going to look at the total in this game. It’s understandably extremely high, with these two teams having two of the most prolific offenses in the NFL. The Ravens have been the number 1 offense in the NFL all season behind Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry. The emergence of 2nd year WR Zay Flowers has been a big help as well, plus Baltimore also added former Steelers WR Deionte Johnson this week. Expect him to get a few snaps tonight as well. The Bengals offense is starting to hum with Joe Burrow looking fully healthy after last year’s fluke wrist injury. Jamar Chase and Burrow have gotten on the same page over the past month, and they have been essentially unstoppable.

We already have on data point for this game, and we know it was a tight game. The Ravens won the first matchup in Cinci in OT by 3, although the Bengals were the better team throughout. I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw a similar outcome tonight. The reason we are looking for the total, though, is more than just the offenses. It’s the LACK of defense on both of these teams.

The Ravens have a new DC in Zach Orr, and it has been a disasterous first season. Mike McDonald’s departure to take over as the Head Coach in Seattle has been felt massively by a Ravens defense that was the best in the league last season, and now sits in the bottom half of the league in most meaningful metrics. On the other side the Bengals Defense has been bottom 10 all year. I would argue that they’ve been a bottom 5 defense when adjusted for schedule. They are HORRIFIC led by their Defensive Coordinator Lou Anorumo, who only still has a job because Bengals ownership just doesn’t give a shit.

With all these things in mind we are going to look to the over. The total currently sits at 52.5 and I believe there is a hesitation in the market to go higher than this, mainly because we just don’t see totals this high in the NFL nowadays. Last time these two teams played there were an absurd 79 points scored in the game. And that was BEFORE the Bengals offense was really clicking. They will be without Tee Higgins again this week, but we saw last week how the Bengals can operate without him. And against this Ravens secondary I believe Joe Burrow will have a huge day even without Higgins.

So we’re taking the over here. Yes, it’s a big number. But it’s just not big enough. My model makes this game 55.5 and so we’re getting some good value here even at a very high number.

Official Pick: Bengals @ Ravens OVER 52.5

Play Rating: 2-Star