NFL Best Bets (10/13/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | October 13, 2024 | 2:41 A.M. CST
Another tough loss last week on our teaser. We got home easily on the Falcons +8.5 on Monday night, and they actually won the game outright. Then we’re on the 1 yard line going into score to up 17-0 (catching 8.5), and Gardner Minshew throws a 100 yard pick six, and flips the game entirely. All of the sudden we look up and we’re down 3 at halftime despite outgaining the Raiders 206-63 through the first 25 minutes of the game. Tough one to swallow but that’s been our luck this year. We will keep it going and get back to winning, hopefully this week.
Best Side OF THE SEASON: Detroit Lions -3 vs. Dallas Cowboys
This is basically a fade of the Cowboys and a sell high spot. Everyone saw Dallas win their last two games, both of which being primetime games. However, the wins came against two of the worst offenses in the league in the Giants and the Steelers. The Cowboy defense, in reality, has not been good this season. And now they face one of the best offenses in the league, who seems to be finally clicking on all cylinders. The Lions were also on a bye last week, while Dallas had to play late Sunday night.
This spot in general feels like a really bad spot for Dallas. Then you take into account a few more things. First off, Dallas won on the final play of the game against Pittsburgh last week (with Justin Fields at QB who is bottom 5 in the NFL in QBR). If that pass falls incomplete, or if the Steelers recover the Rico Dowdle fumble on the one yard line & Dallas loses this game, what is this line? I’d argue that it’s at LEAST -4, possibly -4.5. Additionally, there’s been phony scores between both these teams before this past week. For example, Detroit’s lone loss came at home against the Tampa Bay Bucs. The Lions outgained the Bucs by 250 total yards in that game, and somehow lost the game. That’s a game the Lions win 95% of the time. Additionally, the Dallas final score against the Ravens earlier this year was more than phony. They got down 28-3 in the game, but scored multiple touchdowns late after a ridiculous collapse by Baltimore that included the Cowboys recovering an onside kick. The reality is if that score ends up closer to what it was heading into the 4th, and the Lions don’t blow that game to Tampa, this could easily be closer to 5 or 6.
My point is this is a MASSIVE mismatch. I am not one to call “LOCKS” but this is my play of the year so far. We are going to go with a FIVE STAR (2.5% of our entire bankroll) on the DETROIT LIONS here this Sunday. Lay the 3. REALLY try to get 3. Lay -3 at -123 or better. Anything over that level of juice, you’re better off taking 3.5 (meaning -3 at -123 = bet, -3 at -124 = no bet, take -3.5 at -110 instead)
Official Pick: Detroit Lions -3
Non-Official Plays:
Teaser of the Week: Jaguars +8.5 to Eagles -2.5
Look we’ve struggled with teasers this year - so rather than actually give this one out as an official I’ll just say maybe throw .5% on there. Or stay away from these until we get back on track. We’re going Eagles to Jags for this teaser.
Total of the Week: Tampa Bay Bucs @ New Orleans Saints OVER 42.5
This number is just very short. Yes, the Saints defense has been better this year than in the past couple seasons. However, injuries are starting to pile up, and they’ve regressed the last couple of weeks. On the other side the Bucs D is an ABSOLUTE SIV. I truly believe it’s one of the worst units in the NFL .
