NFL Best Bets (10/31/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | October 31, 2024 | 3:39 A.M.
Best Bet Thursday Night Football:
It’s late Wednesday night (really Thursday morning) but I need to get this out so it’s posted before any line moves. We’re going to go with the Jets tonight on TNF. One of the Jets 2 wins this season came earlier this year on TNF, a game that was perhaps their most complete of the season from start to finish. Moreso though, we’re just looking to fade the Texans at spot where they are absolutely due for a loss, while the Jets are due for a win.
Yes the Jets are 2-6 and the Texans are 6-2, however a number of the Jets losses have come in very tight games. 4 of the Jets 6 losses have been by 6 points or less, and 3 of those 6 have been by 3 points or less. At this time of year I like to look at teams who are a couple plays away from having a vastly different record. For example, you look at the Jets loss to the Broncos at home. A game they absolutely dominated from a statistical standpoint, and still had a 50 yard field goal to win the game. They make that kick (which Zurlein has traditionally always made in his career), that’s 3 wins for the Jets. Then you look at last week’s game vs. the Patriots where the Jets pulled off some HISTORY. New York held the Patriots to under 250 yards of total offense, they scored 20+ points in the game, and they did not turn it over. Prior to that game, teams who accomplished those feats were 756-0. So in the long history of this league, the Jets found a way to lose a game they statistically dominated (including outgaining New England by over 2 yards per play). Then you look at the game against the Jets where Zurlein missed two EASY field goals, and the Jets STILL had the ball at midfield with a chance to win the game in the final minutes, and couldn’t do it. Even conservatively, you change 3 plays in the Jets season, two of which were field goals, and this SAME TEAM could be 5-3. Instead they sit 2-6. What’s the line on this game at that point.
Then you look at the Texans who come in 6-2, however look at who they have beaten this year. 5 of their 6 wins came against the 1-win Jacksonville Jaguars, the New England Patriots with a rookie QB making his first career start, the Chicago Bears with a rookie QB making his second career start (and first career start on the road), and the Indianapolis Colts TWICE, both times with Anthony Richardson as the starting QB (the worst QB in the NFL this year who was just benched for 40-year old Joe Flacco). So legitimately the Texans have beaten ONE team with a pulse, and it was the Bills, AT HOME, a game that was tied with 1 minute left and the Bills had the ball.
Now all of that is not to dismiss these two teams and what they’ve accomplished this season. Good teams like the Texans find ways to win games, while bad teams like the Jets find ways to lose games. And that’s what has happened this season. But the reality is that you change a few plays in the Jets season and you have two teams playing each other with very similar records, then what is this line? More than likely it’s closer to Jets -4.5 or -5.
From a line perspective we already have some value. But now we look at the Houston Texans offense. They have struggled massively since the loss of Nico Collins a few weeks ago. In that span without Collins, Stroud had two of his worst games as a pro, including a performance with a sub-40% completion percentage. Then last week, the Texans suffered a second blow in the receiving room with Stefon Diggs tearing his ACL. So they are now down their top two weapons, and if life for CJ Stroud wasn’t already hard enough, it just got tougher. Couple that with the fact that DJ Reed has been the best cover DB in the league this year according to PFF. And, while Sauce Gardner hasn’t played to the level he did in his first two All-Pro seasons, he’s still a top 5 CB in the game. Thus, it’s going to be difficult for the Texans to find success through the air consistently tonight. Which means they will largely have to rely on the ground game and Joe Mixon. Well unfortunately for the Texans, since that Nico Collins injury where the pass game was depleted, the run game took a hit as well. In fact, since then, the Texans are 26th in EPA per rush with a 30% rush success rate in that span (Dead last in NFL). So I’m not sure there’s truly a path here to just shove it down the throat of the Jets front 7.
All of these factors lead to massive value for the Jets here, not to mention this is the Jets Super Bowl. Obviously, the loss last week probably put the nail in the coffin, but mathematically, they aren’t out just yet. A 7th loss here would mean 10-7 is the best possible outcome. You’d think 9 wins gives them a shot and 10 would get them in. To keep that alive, it’s a MUST win tonight. We’re going to get the Jets best shot here. And even though the offense hasn’t been great, they have been much better since demoting Nathaniel Hackett, so look for some increased production tonight from Devante Adams and that receiving core.
Let’s back the Jets ML. There’s some -123 out there still at Circa & DKs. Play to -129. At -135 is when I would rather take the -2. Don’t lay more than 2 or more than -135 NO MATTER WHAT.
Official Pick: New York Jets ML (-123) Play to -134
Play Rating: 2-Star
