Minnesota Lynx @ Connecticut Sun Game 3 Best Bet (10/4/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | October 4, 2024 | 5:32 P.M. CST
WNBA Conference Finals: Minnesota Lynx +2.5 (-110) @ Connecticut Sun -2.5 (-110) | Total: 150.5
Location: Connecticut
Time: 6:30 P.M. CST
Series Count: Tied 1-1 (Best of 5 Series)
Summary:
The Minnesota Lynx travel to Connecticut tonight, as they attempt to regain home court along with control of this series. The Lynx finished the regular season winning 14 of their final 15 games (excluding the final game of the season in which no starters played). They were by far the hottest team in the WNBA down the stretch. They handled the Phoenix Mercury in the first round of the playoffs, sweeping them 2 games to 0. However, despite the hot streak entering the Conference Finals, the Lynx dropped game 1 at home to the Connecticut Sun, 70-73, for just their 5th loss at home all season. Minnesota was able to bounce back in game 2, with a much better shooting performance from beyond the arc, securing a 77-70 win. They led from start to finish in game 2, and looked much more like themselves. Yet we sit here on Friday night with the Lynx a short UNDERDOG in this game, and the Sun taking professional money. Here’s why I believe the line move is incorrect, as I believe the Lynx have a great shot to win the game tonight.
In addition to being THE hottest team in the WNBA post-Olympic break, the Lynx were especially good on the road down the stretch. In fact they come into this matchup with the Sun on a 5-game road winning streak, winning 8 of their last 9 on the road in total. Additionally, not only were the Lynx good on the road, they were especially good against the better teams in the league. In fact, the Lynx were 9-4 on the road this regular season against playoff teams, winning 6 in a row vs. those teams to close the season. That means when they step up in class, and they do so away from Minnesota, they tend to win the game outright. Now, yes the Lynx are just 1-2 against the Sun in head-to-head matchups in the regular season, but I don’t put much stock in a regular season series compared to a playoff series.
Moreover, one thing that the stats show from the first two games of this series is that the BETTER SHOOTING TEAM is likely to win the game. Game 1 the Sun shot over 40% from three, while the Lynx struggled mightily (25%). The outcome was predictable, with the Sun squeaking out a close game 73-70. Despite the large gap in shooting, Minnesota still had 3 possessions in the final minute to either tie or win the game. On the other hand, in game 2, Minnesota was the team who shot above 40% while Connecticut shot sub 30%. Even more positively, while game 1 still came down to the final possession, game 2 did not. The large gap in shooting efficiency from behind the arc allowed the Lynx to run away with it, and despite the final score being a 7 point win for the Lynx, they were never in jeopardy of losing the game. The reason I bring this up is because we are looking at a series that very well could be decided based upon which team shoots it better from three. In the regular season the Lynx shot over 37% from beyond the arc, while the Sun shot just 32% (one of the lowest in the league). In the playoffs both teams have shot it better, with Minnesota shooting over 38% and Connecticut shooting it just around 35%. So, we have a Minnesota team that has proven over a large sample size that they are a significantly better shooting team than the Sun, and we are likely to see three pointers decide this game.
With all that in mind, we always have to take into account price. First looking at the moneyline, you can find the Lynx at +120. That means an implied odds of winning for Minnesota of 45.5%. Essentially, in order for us to break even in the long run, the Lynx have to win this game 45.5% of the time. My ACTUAL ODDS calculated this matchup at a 53.2% probability that the Lynx win this game. So what does that mean? It means according to my calculations and how I evaluate these teams, we have a 7.7% edge on the Lynx, which would mean we absolutely have to back them on the moneyline.
Now I want to add one thing. The line on this game is the Sun -2.5. The reason I bring this up, is because normally I would take +120 in this spot in a professional basketball game as opposed to taking the 2.5. However, the WNBA is much different than the NBA with the way teams foul and how end of games tend to play out. Therefore, it’s worth noting some things about possibly grabbing the points. The Sun won 28 games this season, 3 of which came by 2 points or less (10.7% of their wins came by 3 or less). That’s a pretty significant number, especially when you consider that one of those 2 point wins came against the Lynx. Additionally, the Lynx lost 10 games in the regular season this year. 2 of those 10 were by 1 or 2 points (20% of all losses). So we’re looking at a legitimate probability of around 15% that if Minnesota loses and if Connecticut wins, the win is by 1 or 2. You take into account that the two playoff games have been decided by 3 and 7, and the totals in those games have been in the 140s. So while the moneyline is definitely a +EV play. So is the +2.5. So let’s lay both, half a star with each.
Best Bet: Minnesota Lynx +2.5 (-110) for 1% | Minnesota Lynx +120 (ML) for 1%
