CFB Best Bet (10/25/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | October 25, 2024 | 1:28 A.M.
Best Bet Game Breakdown: Boise State -2.5 @ UNLV
Let’s start with Boise States offense vs. UNLV’s Defense. And this is a big part of why we’re going to look to the Broncos here for a best bet. There’s a clear edge to Boise State on this side of the ball. And, it all starts with one man named Ashton Jeanty. Jeanty is far and away the best college football player in the country. What he is doing at the RB position is absolutely historic. His numbers are literally unbelievable, and they just keep getting better. Through 6 games he’s run for over 1,200 yards (over 200 yards per game), 17 rushing TDs (19 total TDs), and a first down every time he runs the ball (10 yards/carry). Additionally he’s the most valuable running back in the country metrically, as he is 1st in CFB in EPA/Rush. He’s also leads the country in yards after contact, with 912 yards after getting hit. To give that stat some reference, imagine starting every play getting hit/touched/slowed by a defender. Now think about this: if you ONLY took his rush yards after that initial contact, he would still be 2nd in the COUNTRY in total rushing. He’s on pace to rush for over 1,800 yards after contact on the season, which would be 500 yards more than the all-time record. He also leads the country in missed tackles forced, with 56, another record he will easily break if he continues even close to his current pace. But what’s even more absurd about the entire thing, is that he’s done this without even playing in 2 halves. He did not play in the 2nd half of their games against Utah State and Portland State. So, in reality, he’s actually only played 5 games. He should not only be the clear Heisman favorite, he should win the thing come December.
The rest of the offense is not bad by any means, but the key issue is the UNLV defense. What looked to be a very good defense to start the season has been anything but solid the last few weeks. In fact, when you look at the UNLV rush defense (which is the better portion of the D), they are 78th in run grade (PFF) and 113th in the country in yards after contact allowed. What does that tell us? they are not gap sound and they do NOT tackle well. And, I just told you that Jeanty is the hardest player in the country to tackle. This is a BAD matchup for UNLV. Additionally, you look at their pass defense, which is 125th in the country (horrible), it’s been even worse the past 4 weeks. They’ve allowed 341 pass yards per game in the Month of October. And it’s not as though they were playing juggernauts. This Boise passing attack led by Maddox Matson isn’t great, but it’s effective enough to exploit a bad pass defense, especially one that’s going to be selling out against the run. I almost think UNLV would need 3-4 turnovers to have a legitimate shot to keep up with Bosie State in this game. And although UNLV has been good at forcing TO’s this year, Boise State LEADS the COUNTRY with the fewest turnovers (just 4 in 6 games). So every pathway to success here for UNLV seems to be stymied by Boise.
The other side of the ball is a bit concerning, in the sense that I don’t think Boise State’s defense is good whatsoever. But they definitely have shown some improvement over the course of the season. Against Oregon early in the year the score was very misleading; although the Ducks scored 35+ points, 14 of them came on special teams. The reality is the Boise “D” actually played quite well in that matchup. Then more recently, a Wazzu team that put up 56 points the week prior, was held completely in check against the Broncos. This UNLV offense is significantly worse than either of those teams’ offenses. Hajj Malik-Williams for UNLV leads the way at QB, and he’s been pretty solid since taking over for Matthew Sluka. But the Rebels did falter at home against Syracuse under Williams, and he also had his worst performance of the season in their most recent outing against a below average defense (50% completion + 2 Picks). The key to this matchup though is the leading wide receiver for UNLV, Ricky White III. He’s legitimately the only playmaker on the outside for the Rebels. And, although he is a VERY good player, it’s become so obvious that the Rebels are going to him on nearly every play that Boise knows taking him away will be key to success. White has been targeted on 61 of the 123 pass attempts by the Rebels this season, which is good for a 49% target share (far and away the highest in the country). The Broncos have had 2 weeks to prepare for this game coming off a bye and they will be ready to take White away early. In the MW Championship game last season, White had 8 catches in the first half and was torching the Boise secondary. After halftime he did not have a single catch. I believe we will see a game plan similar to the that 2nd half come Friday night, and that should lead to great success for the Boise D.
Overall, this is a mismatch. And we’re seeing pro money pour in on Boise. Get in on it before it moves to 3. I’m going to make this a 4 star play which is my first 4 star of the year for college football. Broncos, lay the 2.5 and let’s cash the ticket
OFFICIAL PICK: Boise State -2.5
Play Rating: 4-Star
