College Football Best Bets (11/2/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | November 2, 2024 | 4:15 A.M. CST
College Football Best Bets
Best Bet #1 (Top Play of Day): Vanderbilt +8 @ Auburn
I’m absolutely shocked at the disrespect for Vanderbilt over and over in the market. But I’m far more shocked at the RESPECT for AUBURN in the market. How in the world they are laying ANYWHERE near a touchdown in this game is ABSURD. Legitimately I made this line Vanderbilt -3 on a neutral field. I think Auburn is one of the worst teams in the country, not to mention it looks as though they’ve quit on the season. These are absolutely two programs headed in completely opposite directions: Vandy is on the uptick and Auburn is trending towards the worst program in the SEC. Then you factor in the coaching matchup with Hugh Freeze vs. Clark Lea. It’s one of the bigger mismatches you will see in SEC Play. I think Lea is one of the best coaches in the country, while I believe Hugh Freeze is a glorified figurehead used for recruiting and in copenhagen dip commercials.
The only possible explanation for the line being even remotely close to this number would be a belief that Diego Pavia was not close to 100% last week. However, if he plays, regardless of his healthy, this line could never be above Auburn -3. And what’s even crazier than all of that is this OPENED 6.5 and got BET UP by professionals to Auburn -8. Seriously, I will gladly take all 8 points, and SPRINKLE some on the money because Vandy is going to WIN THIS GAME OUTRIGHT. I broke this game down on our Pick ‘Em Show on the Podcast as well, and I gave it out on Monday at +7. I’m giving it out at an EVEN BETTER number here. This is one of my favorite plays of the month. We’re going to increase it to a 3-star actually. I would normally make this a 4-star, but the lack of knowledge on Diego Pavia’s full health is going to have me keep this as a 3-star. But still a bigger play than a usual one.
One last nugget: Jerry Kill is a special assistant to the head coach at Vanderbilt. The last two times Jerry Kill faced Hugh Freeze as a head coach, he beat him. And, that included Kill taking his New Mexico State Aggies (led by none other than Diego Pavia at QB) into Jordan Haire Stadium last year and upsetting the Auburn Tigers as 28 point underdogs. So yes, there is a clear advantage here in things beyond the football field as well.
Official Pick: Vanderbilt +8
Play Rating: 3-Star
Play #2 Texas Tech +14.5 @ Iowa State
Look this is a fade of Iowa State at the absolute peak of their market. This Cyclone’s team is a great story, and I absolutely love Matt Campbell. But when you look at these two teams from a talent perspective, it’s truly not much different. Actually in terms of athletes, I would give the advantage to Texas Tech. Now, there’s definitely a clear coaching DISADVANTAGE for Texas Tech; Joey McGuire is a very below average coach and Matt Campbell is awesome. But remember we’re catching 14.5 points here. We don’t have to win outright.
Let’s talk about those 14.5 points. I have no earthly idea how this line is so high. I understand Texas Tech has had some uneven performances this season; they were blown out by Baylor a few weeks back, but Tech closed as a 4.5 point favorite in that game. Then you look at last week against TCU. That game Tech led by 13 in the 4th quarter, when starting QB Behren Morton was knocked out of the game with a concussion. Following the injury TCU made a late push and escaped with a 1 point victory. Tech was somehow a 7 point underdog in that game and covered easily. If you think about what that’s saying, you are telling me that Tech is a pick ‘em right now against Central Florida on a neutral field? A UCF Team that has won ONE conference game. No shot. I made this line Iowa State -7 at home.
Then you factor in spot. Tech is coming off a tough loss, but they are getting Morton back. Iowa State on the other hand, undefeated thus far, is not blowing teams out by any means. They are coming off a bye, but their last outing as a 13.5 point favorite, they absolutely should have lost to Central Florida. UCF led by two scores in the fourth quarter, and it took a crazy late game comeback for Iowa State to remain unbeaten. This Tech team is far better than UCF. Now the game is in Aimes, BUT I think coming off a bye works against this specific team. A lot of people blindly believe teams off a bye play better (because they get healthy, fresh, and extra time to prep), but that’s not the case. In fact it’s completely reliant on specific situations. The reason I dislike this one for the Cyclones is because ISU is not a team of overly talented players. They are a TEAM with good chemistry and flow. And that is who they have ALWAYS been. Because that’s the case, being in rythm is really important. And when you look at their offense specifically, it’s gotten better and better as the season has gone on. That’s a team you don’t really want to have a break, because you want to keep the flow going. Teams that are STRUGGLING are often the ones that most benefit from a bye week (or one that’s super banged up). Thus, I think we will likely see this team struggle in this game offensively, especially early on.
With all that in mind, you also have a very explosive Tech offense. Tahj Brooks is quite possibly the best back in the country when healthy other than Ashton Jeanty, of course. And You’ve got a dual threat QB who is getting better and better with each start. He does make some mistakes at times, but he’s got big play ability when they give him time. ISU’s defense has been good this year, but this is one of the best offenses they’ve faced so far this year. I truly believe Tech is a live dog in this spot, and I’m showing TONS of value on Tech over two TDs. But even if all goes wrong and Tech gets down big. Keep in mind that say we are down 3 TDs late, we have the very possible outcome of a backdoor cover with this Tech offense late in the game. Let’s back Tech here, showing tons of value, as a RARE 3 score LIVE dog.
Official Pick: Texas Tech +14.5
Play Rating: 2-Star
Play #3: South Carolina +3.5 vs. Texas A&M
Last play here we are going to fade Texas A&M. The Aggies are one of the most OVER RATED teams in the country. They are currently ranked 10th, when in reality they are barely a top 25 team. They’ve played an unbelievably weak schedule, and still are extremely fortunate to only have 1 loss. They trailed to a bad Arkansas team on a neutral field, and needed a fourth quarter late score to win that game. They barely hung on against BOWLING GREEN STATE, 26-20 AT HOME with none other than Marcel Reed (New starter) at QB. He was also the starter in that Arkansas game, and he was NOT GOOD in either game. They trailed by double digits to LSU last week in a night home game, and LSU missed FOUR FIELD GOALS. Then Garrett Nussmeier basically imploded and handed A&M 3 picks. The first of which completely turned the game.
Then you look at South Carolina, a team that is 2-3 plays away from being a legit contender in the SEC. They led by two scores in the 4th quarter against LSU earlier this season and a couple massive penalties changed the game. Against Bama they scored late but were forced to go for 2 due to a missed extra point earlier in the game. The 2 point play was a wide open walk in score and the QB (Lanoris Sellers) missed the throw. Still SC got the ball back and was 10 yards from FG range with a first and 10 with just a minute left. They were unable to get in range because Sellers threw a pick.
All of that said, we also love one mismatch in this game: The SC defensive front against the Texas A&M OL. The SC front is quite possibly the best in the country. It’s top 3 without a doubt. They’re playing against a below average, banged up A&M OL. And you’re asking a kid who cannot throw the ball, who is extremely one-dimensional, to hold up against an ELITE front. Not to mention, they’ve had extra prep time coming off a bye (this is a GOOD bye in my opinion). We’re going to ride with the Game Cocks. And I think they could absolutely be an outright win.
Official Pick: South Carolina +3.5
Play Rating: 2-Star
If you want to play a fun little moneyline parlay on all three dogs:
Tech +410 | Vandy +250 | Tech +145 = 42.7 to 1
I don’t recommend playing more than 10 bucks on it. But true odds are around 15 to 1 so it’s a ton of value
