College Football Best Bets (10/12/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | October 12, 2024 | 4:05 A.M. CST
CFB Best Bets 2024-2025 Season
Overall Record:: 18-12 (60.0%)
Last Week: 5-0 (100.0%)
Week 7 Best Bets: Don’t love the card like I did last week, but there’s still some good value on a few plays here.
Best Bets Below are ALL 2 Star Plays
Best Bet No. 1: Vanderbilt +14 @ Kentucky
Look, as a guy who loves to bet spots at times, this is not a good spot for Vanderbilt. UK is coming off a bye and Vandy is coming off the biggest win in program history. BUT, if spot isn’t a massive factor, I bet numbers, not teams. And the number here is wrong.
Think about it this way. Alabama laid 22 at Vanderbilt last week. Vanderbilt has the worst homefield advantage in the power 5. So let’s call it Bama -23 over Vandy on a neutral. Two weeks ago Georgia laid 2.5 AT Alabama, which means Georgia would be around a 5 point favorite against Bama on a neutral. Georgia laid 24 at Kentucky. So they would be a 27 point favorite over UK on a neutral. This current line is telling us Kentucky is an 11 point favorite over Vanderbilt on a neutral field. I know all of that is confusing, but what I mean with all of this is that ACCORDING TO VEGAS if Georgia met Kentucky on a neutral field, Georgia would be -27, and that means then, that Bama would be laying around 22 on a neutral field to Kentucky. And as I mentioned just a few seconds ago, Bama would be laying 22 to Vanderbilt at a neutral field.
Why is all of that important? Because Vegas is telling us BASED ON THE LAST 2-3 WEEKS, that Vanderbilt and Kentucky are basically EVEN teams. Kentucky and Vandy on a neutral field would be a pick ‘em. But for some reason, the line is TWO TDs. Which really means 11 points on a neutral field. So this line, then, according to Vegas’s last few weeks, is 11 points off. And should be closer to UK -1 or so.
With all of that in mind, It’s too hard to pass up that kind of value. 14 points is a lot, even in a road game in a bad spot. Vandy has the offensive firepower to pull off a backdoor cover if all goes to shit. But more importantly, Kentucky’s offense is anemic and they are going to have a tough time covering more than 2 TDs
Best Bet No. 2: Ohio State -3 vs. Oregon
Im my opinion, this game was probably properly priced at 4 to 4.5. My power rankings have Ohio State a 7 point favorite on a neutral field over Oregon, so I agreed with the open more than where it is now. At -3 this line is way too short
Ohio State has the better offensive and defensive line, they have had the more impressive performances, they have the better skill position players, and overall the better team. Yes Autzen is a tough place to play, but I like the Scarlett and Grey here in this one
Best Bet No. 3: Kansas State @ Colorado OVER 55
Short and sweet - both offenses are elite, both defenses are not good
Colorado will light up that K-State secondary
K-State will have a field day running all over CU’s defense
I could see this turning into a real shootout
Try to get 55 - that’s a very key number in college totals
Missed the Card:
Boise State/Hawaii OVER 59.5, Iowa State +3 vs. ISU, USC +4 vs. Penn State, Cal +3.5 @ Pittsburgh
Note: Missed the card means I considered, but didn’t actually get there because of whatever reason. If I give an “Opinion” it means I liked the play enough to bet a few bucks on it, but not to make it an official play. So my opinions have done quite well, but just missed the card means I didn’t bet it at all. So take those with a grain of salt.
