College Basketball Best Bets Tuesday (1/13/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | February 13, 2024 | 2:11 A.M. CST

Below are my best bets for Tuesday’s college basketball slate. These are both free plays, released to everyone. If you want to purchase my premium plays, please hit my up via email, text, or social media. These picks will be released early to allow followers to get ahead of line movement today. However, I will try to post these picks with in depth breakdowns tomorrow before tip off occurs. Good luck, and let’s keep the money coming in!!

Best Bets:

Top Play #1 of the Night: Providence -1 vs. St. John’s

• 2 Units

• Short Summary here is that Providence has been really good at home, and they are facing a struggling St. John’s team that has struggled on the road. They’ve all but been eliminated for an at-large bid in the NCAA tournament, and their effort has reflected that in their recent games. They are coming off blowing a big lead at #4 Marquette, and that is likely to wear on their minds coming into this one. Additionally, Providence has been playing some great basketball at home. It’s a super tough place to play. It’s also a revenge spot as St. John’s beat them earlier this season

Top Play #2 of the Night: Butler +4 vs. Marquette

• 2 Units

• Short Summary here is that Butler is playing it’s best basketball of the season, as they have won 6 of their last 7. They’ve lost just twice at home all season, and although it’s not the toughest place to play, it does carry a significant home court advantage. Marquette is a veteran laced team, but they struggled last game at home against St. John’s and required some incredible performances to come back and win that game at home, against an inferior team, mainly from Tyler Kolak (who was outstanding in that game). One thing to note is that Butler actually went into Marquette earlier this season and got a road win against the Golden Eagles. While I normally don’t like playing against a team in a revenge spot, I’m choosing to look at that game differently. I think the Bulldogs are just a poor matchup for the Golden Eagles. Lastly this is just too many points to pass up in this spot. Catching a whole 4 points, at home with an really solid unranked team against a team who is ranked in the top 5 is oddly enough something we don’t get much anymore, largely because the markets have adjusted to these spots. Additionally, this is a HUGE look ahead spot for the Golden Eagles, as they have UCONN on deck this Saturday, and they will no doubt have that game on their minds. That game is a MUST WIN for Marquette to have any shot of winning the regular season Big East Title. It also will solidify them as no worse than the #2 seed in the Big East Tournament. Overall, tough spot for the Golden Eagles, and I’m just always taking the points in a game like this. Give me Butler all day here, and thanks for the 4 extra points Vegas.

College Basketball Play of the Week (Paid Play)

Author: Dylan Lieck | February 12, 2024 | 5:17 P.M. CST

Note: If you are viewing this pick, you are a paid customer and I’d like to thank you for joining on. We lost on the Team Total with the Chiefs yesterday, HOWEVER we CASHED BIG on the Chiefs +250 live, when they were down 10-0. We also cashed on the Kyle Jusczyk over .5 recption, over 3.5 receiving yards, and Brandon Aiyuk Under 4.5 Receptions. We finished the night 4-1 with a 7.5 Unit Profit!! Congrats to all who followed, and I’ll continue to produce you guys winners over the long run!! Now let’s get to the play of the day.

Best Bet Monday: Texas Tech -2 vs. Kansas

• Units: 3 (We are currently 3-0 on our 3 Unit Plays this year)

• Summary: This line is completely off. It opened at -2, while a lot of places have gotten to -3 (I still like it at -3). First off, let’s start with the fact that Top 10 teams on the road this season against unranked opponents are currently winning outright at just a 43% rate (down 30% from the avg. the previous decade). That numbers is even worse in the Big 12. In the Big 12 Conference, UNRANKED TEAMS playing at home against a TOP 10 CONFERENCE OPPONENT are a staggering 8-3 straight up. If Tech pulls off the upset tonight, that would be a 75% win percentage for unranked teams in the Big 12 against Top 10 teams at home. So if you’re wondering why Tech is a 2-3 point favorite here, despite the fact that they are unranked and Kansas is ranked #6, that’s why. So just in terms of the spot, I love taking the home team in this spot. There is no doubt it’s going to be ROCKING tonight in Lubbock, and the Red Raiders will be very up for this game. They are going to get off to a hot start, and that place is going to be going bonkers. I also like that Tech hasn’t played great as of late. They haven’t shot it as well as they have on the season the past couple games, and I think they are due to break out here against a Kansas team that is short handed. We also have a Kanas team who is playing shorthanded (which I’ll get to in a second), and even when healthy this team has really struggled on the road in conference play. The Jayhawks are just 1-4 on the road in the Big 12 this season, and their lone win came against Oklahoma State, who is in last place in the conference with just a single conference victory. They have losses to Central Florida, West Virginia, and Kansas State, none of which are very good this year. The only road loss you can throw out is the Iowa State loss, as everyone tends to lose at Iowa State, and they are a very good basketball team. Then you have the Red Raiders playing at home in one of the better home court environments in the country (at least when the Red Raiders are good).

• The Jayhawks come into this game with the best starting lineup in the country WHEN HEALTHY. The problem for them tonight, is they are NOT healthy. Kevin McCullers Jr. (KU’s leading scorer) will miss his second straight game with a shoulder injury, and that is a HUGE loss. McCullers didn’t play Saturday in the Jayhawks game against Baylor at home in Allen Fieldhouse, and the Bears nearly pulled off the upset in a place where NOBODY has won all season. Kansas pulled off a narrow 3-point victory over Baylor, but failed to cover as 5.5 point favorites. In addition to losing McCullers, towards the end of the game against Baylor Dajuan Harris, Kansas’ all-world PG, turned his ankle pretty bad. He did return to the game, but he was clearly hobbled. Bill Self came out and said that he thinks Harris is going to give it a go tonight, however there is no way he’s anywhere near 100% in this one. Now, injuries can be tough for any team to deal with, but they are especially tough for the Jayhawks, because of their lack of depth. As mentioned, they may have the best starting 5 in the country, but even when fully healthy they don’t have anyone off the bench who provides consistent play. Starting tonight in place of McCullers will likely be Nicolas Timberlake. Timberlake, a Towson University transfer, was expected to be a knockdown shooter for the Jayhawks, however he has really struggled so far this season (which caused him to lose most of his minutes in the rotation). He’s also a HUGE step down defensively. Late in the Baylor game he made a number of significant mistakes that led to Baylor getting two WIDE OPEN looks at threes to tie the game in the final seconds. But it’s not just Timberlake who’s struggled. The Jayhawks bench has been awful all season, and due to an illness to Jamari McDowell Kansas actually will only have 7 scholarship players available for them in this game. In addition to the healthy starters and Timberlake, that includes a true freshman who lost his starting spot early in the season, and Christian Braun’s younger brother who is clearly not ready to get minutes in meaningful college basketball games at this level.

• Overall, I think this is one of the more mispriced games I’ve seen all season when you take into account spot, health, location, and rankings. Texas Tech would have a legitimate shot to win this game if the Jayhawks were completely healthy, so getting them at -2 (or -3) seems like an absolute steal. I LOVE this pick. It’s one of my favorite picks of the season, hence why it’s a paid, premium play. We’re going with a full 3 units on this one. For those who do not know, that is the second largest play I give out. And we are currently undefeated on our 3 unit plays this season. I have not given out a 4 unit play so this is the largest bet of the season (or tied for it). Let’s get our big time 3-unit wagers to 4-0 tonight with a Red Raider win in Lubbock!!

OFFICIAL PICK: Texas Tech -2 (play to -4) vs. Kansas

Update (February 13, 2024 @ 2:05 A.M. CST):

This play was released live to the public at 11 P.M. CST. Once again if you are NOT a paying customer, you will NOT receive my biggest plays. You will receive my free plays, which are still hitting at a very high rate and will turn profit in the long run. If you want access to my top plays and ALL my action hit me up on social media, email, or phone (I’ll include that info below). Follow me on TikTok or YouTube as well as sometimes I post my picks there (I just don’t say how many units on those videos to be fair to my paying customers). This play was an EASY winner and all my paying customers cashed their tickets. Congrats to all you guys who follow me and thanks for the support!!

Dylan’s Contact Information:

• Phone: 210-836-8820 (Text for info or inquiries)

• Email: dylanliecksports@gmail.com

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Paid Play Saturday Best Bets

Author: Dylan Lieck | February 10, 2024 | 9:00 A.M. CST

Note: These plays were released to all paying customers at 9:00 A.M. this morning. I set this article to go live at 8:15 P.M. so that they would be posted. All paying customers got all big plays way ahead of line moves and got the best number. Anyone who is viewing this as a non-paying customer, you will get the late games free, however if you want the full slate ahead of line moves text Dylan at 210-836-8820.

Official Best Bets Saturday:

• Big Play of the Day: Michigan State -3 vs. Illinois (3 Units)

Other Plays of the Day (All these 2 UNITS)

• Bradley -3 vs. Drake

• Texas A&M +2 vs. Tennessee

• Colorado -1 vs. Arizona

• Stanford -2 vs. USC

Small Play of the Day (1 UNIT)

• BYU -11 vs. K-State

College Hoops Best Bet (2/4/2024)

Author: Dylan Lieck | February 4, 2024 | 10:11 P.M. CST

Today’s Summary: Finished 2-2 on the day, frustrating finish. Our losers were Georgia and Kentucky. Georgia had a double digit first half lead and played fantastic. They unfortunately choked it away in the second half. At the time of my last 5 losses, it was the 5th straight that lost after being ahead by 10 or more at some point in the game. Regardless it was a loss. The other loser was the most dissapointing: Kentucky. Plain and Simple they got outplayed. They were outcoached, as Coach Calipairi is just a horrific basketball coach. Great recruiter but he needs to retire and do something else. He single handedly cost this team the game, and he is going to cost them their season early in the tournament. The wins were relatively easy winners: UNC led the entire game and was never in doubt and Kansas was ahead by double digits from the first 7 minutes all the way to the end of the game. Overall 2-2 day.

The 13 to 1 parlay went 2-1. With the lone loss being Ole Miss, who you guessed it, led by double digits. It feels like if my luck ever turns good I’ll be picking at 80%. Cannot catch a break the last couple weeks and we are STILL POSITIVE!! That’s when you know you “This ain’t no hobby” - we push on and forward. Next play see below

Official Play for Sunday:

Pick: WISCONSIN +2 vs. Purdue

Wisconsin has been playing outstanding basketball this season, but they are exceptional at home. Purdue is obviously a very good team, and they’ve been outstanding in conference play. However they do have two losses on the road in conference (@ Northwestern and @ Nebraska). Wisconsin is not only better than both those teams, but they also have a much better home court advantage. Wisconsin is also coming off a loss last game at Nebraska. It’s also important to note that Wisconsin led in that game by 15 at halftime. They led by as many as 18 in the second half, and yet they found a way to let Nebraska come back and win it. The problem is that the crowd was a huge part of that. Nebraska is undefeated at home in conference, including a double digit win over Purdue. I think off a loss, at home, against a Purdue team that is a bit over rated, this is a fantastic spot for the Badgers. This is an easy pick for me. That doesn’t mean it’s an automatic winner. It just means that I’m backing the Badgers in this spot at this number 100 out of 100 times. Take the Badgers +2 as they will pull off the home upset against the Boilermakers tomorrow.

Units: 2

College Hoops Best Bets (Saturday, 2/3/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | February 3, 2024 | 4:55 P.M. CST

Best Bets For the College Hoops Slate this Saturday (Official 2U Plays)

• Kansas +1.5 vs. Houston (2 Units):

• Kentucky +1 vs. Tennessee (2 Units)

• Georgia -1 vs. South Carolina (2 Units)

• North Carolina -3 vs. Duke (2 Units) - Do not like it at worse than -3

If San Diego State were to get anywhere under 3, either before the game or even if you can find a live early in the game if the Aztecs start slow, Utah State has been due for a loss for a while and SDSU NEEDS this one. I believe the Aztecs will dominate the Aggies, but I’m just not willing to lay 5 points yet.

Opinions/Small Plays: I haven’t bet any of these yet, but I’m considering a few (I’ll note which ones)

• Texas A&M -2.5 vs. Florida (this bet I like, but Tyrese Radford, A&M’s PG, got arrested a day ago and his status is uncertain = that matters a lot to this game) - but if this is under 3 and Radford plays, this one has a good chance of getting upgraded to a real play

• Clemson -4 vs. Virginia: Virginia is horrific on the road, and don’t let one win at GT fool you. Clemson NEEDS this win, I see the Tigers by close to double digits

• Central Florida +1.5 vs. OU: This is a weird one, but I lean to UCF. OU is a weird, inconsistent team

• Oki State +1 vs. K-State: This is the game I like the least, but I think Oki State has a good shot. K-State looked like they quit last game, in a huge spot for them, at home against a struggling OU team. They got smoked, and Oki State is due for a win. Coming into this one at home. They’ve played some real tough, close games at home against teams way better than K-State. Talent wise there really isn’t much gap. And I think Jerome Tang may have lost the team. K-State just is a weird team which is what is keeping me off this one right now.

• St. John’s +3 vs. UCONN: St. John’s is a very weird team. But they play really well at home, and really poorly on the road. UCONN is due for a road loss, as it’s just too hard to keep winning against good teams away from home. The fact that it’s UCONN is keeping me away at the moment. I have a lot of respect for Dan Hurley and that program, and they are the most talented, well-coached team in the country.

ML Parlays:

1) Safer Option: Kentucky +100 | Kansas +110

• Pays 3.2 to 1 (I think both teams win at home and getting nearly 3.5 to 1 is a good number)

2) Longer Shot Option: Central Florida +110 | Ole Miss +140 | Louisville +200

• Pays 13 to 1

PAID CBB Play of the Month Recap

Author: Dylan Lieck | February 3, 2024 | 4:35 A.M. CST

Because I have a select few people currently purchasing my top plays of the month, most of my 3-4 unit plays will not be posted on this website to the public until they are recapped following the game. If you wish to purchase these plays, please contact me at 210-836-8820. You’ll never pay for a play if it loses, only if it wins. And you will only get plays that I have bet myself at the numbers I officially can get.

Play of the Month Recap

Sport: College Basketball

Pick: Nebraska PK vs. #6 Wisconsin

Units: 3

Result: Winner

Summary:

For my official play of the month, a 3-unit paid play, we went back to a familiar spot, backing a BIG 10 team at home against a ranked opponent. The transfer portal has largely leveled the playing field in college hoops, and long gone are the days of backing the ranked road favorites to cover numbers. That said, this game was anything but easy. The plain, simple truth is that I knew going into this one that there was many possible paths to victory for Nebraska, and this was a TERRIFIC spot for them, while it was a terrible spot for Wisconsin.

The #6 Badgers have absolutely exceeded expectations this season, but I believe we reached the peak of their market value in this one, which is partially why I liked it. Wisconsin came into that game with only one conference loss, tied for first place in the Big 10. The team they were tied with, the Purdue Boilermakers, are coming to Madison on Sunday, so this was a classic look ahead spot. We add to that the gravity of the game for Nebraska, as the Cornuskers badly needed this win over a top 10 team to boost their NCAA Tournament Resume. Additionally, Nebraska got back Juwan Gary, one of their top players who had missed a significant amount of time. Nebraska was also 11-1 at home this season, and undefeated (a perfect 5-0) at home in conference. They have a very underrated home court advantage. So we have a healthy Nebraska team, at home where they are excellent, in a spot where they badly need a quality win, facing off against a Wisconsin team in a look ahead spot, who was due for a poor performance, playing on the road where they’ve been average this season so far. Lastly, add to the fact that the Cornhuskers already dismantled #1 Purdue at home earlier this season, and that was a Purdue team I feel is way better than Wisconsin (at least in terms of talent).

Unfortunately, the game could not have started more poorly for the Huskers. AJ Storr, the sophomore transfer from St. John’s for the Badgers, started the game off with back-to-back 3s, and scored Wisconsin’s first 10 points without missing from the field in that stretch. The Huskers dug themselves quite the first half hole, and despite a little run before halftime to cut it to single digits, the Badgers responded well and took a 16 point lead into halftime. Going into halftime, two things were true. One was last year, where the Huskers trailed AT WISCONSIN by 14 points, but came back to force overtime and win the game. Two was that since 2000, Wisconsin was 120-0 when leading by 15 or more at halftime (they led by 16). But, that doesn’t matter for our Huskers! They made a furious run, and their shots finally began falling. They were able to get the game back to even, before once again giving Wisconsin control of the game. They trailed by 7 with just 4 minutes to play, but found a way to go on an 11-4 run to finish regulation. The Badgers were able to score with just 20 seconds left to tie the game, and Nebraska couldn’t hit a buzzer beater, which led this one into overtime (advantage Nebraska).

In the overtime, Mast (Husker’s big man) took over the game with some huge buckets in the post down the stretch, and Nebraska pulled off the incredible comeback to win the game. It wasn’t pretty, and despite all the bad luck we’ve caught in football season this year (where we still finished over 64% in NFL and nearly 59% in college) we finally got one to go our way. Sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good. Or at least to not be unlucky.

Official Play’s of the Month Record: 2-0 (College Hoops) +6.0 Units

Check out my most recent blog post for my best bets for this SATURDAY as we have an absolutely LOADED SLATE!!

College Basketball Best Bets (1/27/2024)

Author: Dylan Lieck | January 27, 2024 | 2:38 P.M. CST

Best Bets (2U)
1) Boise State -2.5 vs. Utah State

2) Richmond +3 vs. Dayton

Love these two plays

Small Play Opinions:

1) Iowa State -3.5

2) Miami -4

3) Florida State +7

4) NW -2.5

5) Mississippi State +2.5

College Basketball Best Bet (1/24/2024): Northwestern vs. Illinois, Back the Home Dog

Author: Dylan Lieck | January 24th, 2024 | 5:33 P.M. CST

College Basketball Best Bet Tonight: NW Wildcats

Official Pick: Northwestern +3 vs. Illinois

Units: 2

Summary: Look this one is simple, Northwestern has been a giant killer at home this season. They’ve already beaten #2 Purdue as a big underdog at home earlier this season. This is just a line we’re not going to get an opportunity a lot this season. Book have done a great job adjusting to home teams in college basketball the past few seasons, so a lot of times a team like NW is a short favorite in this spot. Working in our favor is the fact that Illinois has a few solid road victories this season. They also just got star Guard Terrance Shannon back last game. Shannon was accused of rape, but was granted a temporary stay to allow him to play while the case is being handled. Shannon came off the bench last game for the Fighting Illini in a 20+ point home win over Rutgers. He played 28 minutes. He had 16 points, although half of his points came from the free throw line. The problem is, this is a HUGE distraction, and that game came at home. How do Shannon and the team respond in a hostile environment with their star player having a rape allegation hanging over his head?

Secondly, Northwestern is inconsistent this season, but they’re really good when their on. When playing at their peak, they have the ability to play with anyone in the country, and we’ve seen that multiple times this season. As mentioned they beat Purdue earlier this year when the Boilermakers were ranked #1 in the land. The Wildcats are also undefeated at home in conference play so far this season. They are coming off a road loss to Nebraska, and the last two times they dropped a road game and followed it up with a home conference game, they won both times. On the other hand Illinois is just 2-2 on the road this season, and their road wins came against Michigan and Rutgers (the two teams tied for last place in the Big 10). Additionally, they are coming off playing both those teams in their last two contests, so this is a step up in class for the Fighting Illini. So this is a fantastic spot for the Northwestern Wildcats. That environment is going to be electric tonight, so let’s back Northwestern +3. If you want to sprinkle a little on the ML at +130 that isn’t a terrible idea either, but officially we’re grading at +3. Wildcats will pull off the big upset at home tonight and we will likely see a court storming.

Official Pick: NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS +3

NFL Divisional Round Best Bets

Author: Dylan Lieck | January 19, 2024 | 11:19 P.M. CST

Best Bets:

2 Team, 7 Point Teaser: Ravens -2.5 to 49ers -2.5

• 2 Units (Must get both teams to below the key number of 3)

Prop Bets:

• Cade Otton (TE, Tampa Bay) OVER 30.5 RECEIVING YARDS

• Rashad White (RB, Tampa Bay) UNDER 16.5 RUSH ATTEMPTS

  • 1 Unit Each

College Basketball Best Bets 1/20/24

Author: Dylan Lieck | January 19, 2024 | 10:45 P.M. CST

Official CBB Best Bets: 25-9 (74%), +30.2 Units

Overall Record (All CBB Plays, Best Bets + Opinions & 1U Plays): 45-26 (63%), +31.5 Units

Note: In this article, I’m going to post my best bets and all my opinions and parlays. The BEST BETS (Official Plays will only count towards the top record). The opinions/small plays count for the overall record, not the official best bets. Same for the parlays. Please make sure to always try to get the number I give out, unless I say (Okay to play to “X” number). But I will always grade the bet based on the number I got, which will always be posted here. So here we go for Saturday’s Slate!!

This article will NOT have breakdowns on the games, however if you look back later tonight or tomorrow I should have breakdowns for just the Official Best Bets!!

Best Bets (Official Website Plays) = 2 Units

1) Boise State +1 vs. San Diego State

2) Florida State +1.5 vs. Clemson

3) Texas Tech ML (-120 or better) vs. BYU: I would try to take ML if it’s not more than -120, but you can also lay -2. I’m got ML at -119

4) Iowa +8.5 vs. Purdue

5) Boston College +8.5 vs. North Carolina

6) GT +1.5 vs. Virginia

7) Seton Hall +1.5 vs. Creighton

Non-Best Bet (1 Unit Plays):

1) St. John’s +1.5 vs. Marquette

2) Syracuse -1.5 vs. Miami

3) Arkansas -2.5 vs. South Carolina

4) Missouri +3 vs. Florida

5) Arizona State -1 vs. USC

6) TCU -3 vs. Iowa State

7) Stanford -1 vs. Washington

8) San Francisco -1 vs. St. Mary’s

9) George Mason -1 vs. St. Bonaventure

10) Texas -1 vs. Baylor (this BARELY made the cut, I would tread lightly here)

ML Parlay #1: Iowa +270 to Beat Purdue | Boston College +270 to Beat UNC

= Pays 12.7 to 1 (This one is a bigger long shot, but it’s live) = sprinkle a few bucks only if you play it

ML Parlay #2: Boise State +100 to Beat SDSU | FSU +110 to Beat Clemson | Seton Hall +110 to beat Creighton

= Pays 7.8 to 1 (I like this one because these are essentially Pick ‘Ems and you can get a parlay at an extra 1.8x on your money) = again small sprinkle on these

BEST OF LUCK GUYS!!

College Hoops Best Bets (1/16/2024)

Author: Dylan Lieck | January 16, 2024 | 5:45 P.M. CST

Sorry for the late post. Won’t get into breakdowns so I post this quick. Here are my 6 bets for tonight. All 2U

Best Bets:

1) Indiana +9.5 vs. Purdue

2) Cinci -3 vs. TCU

3) NC State -2 vs. Wake

4) Oki State +7.5 vs. Kansas

5) K-State PK vs. Baylor

6) BYU -4 vs. Iowa State

Current Website Record CBB: 21-7 (75%)

College Hoops Best Bets (1/13/2024)

Author: Dylan Lieck | January 13th, 2024 | 12:03 A.M. CST

College football is over and that means it’s time to LOCK IN on college basketball. And we’ve got a massive slate on deck for this Saturday. If you want some NFL playoff bets, check out my next blog post with my Wild Card Best Bets. But let’s jump right into our plays for college hoops this Saturday.

Play #1: Butler -4 vs. Seton Hall

• Butler is back at home coming off a massive win over Marquette on the road, which broke a 3-game losing streak for the Bulldogs. However, that losing streak included two losses on the road, as well as a third loss against UCONN (who I believe is the best, most complete team in the country). This Butler team was solid in the non-conference, with their only two losses coming at Michigan State and against a very good FAU team. The win over Marquette got this group back on track, and we know they have the ability to beat anyone in the country. But I love them in this spot because of the home court - they have one of the best home court advantages in the country (probably the best in the Big East). They have home wins over Texas Tech and Boise State earlier this season, both of which look like much better wins with how those two teams have played as of late

• As for Seton Hall, they’ve been playing outstanding as of late. There is no way around that; they are playing some great basketball. They’re 4-1 in their past 5 games with wins over UCONN, Marquette, and Providence. However, when you look at those wins, there is a story to each. The wins over Marquette and UCONN both came at home. The win over UCONN included the Huskies star big man (Donovan Clingan) going down to an injury early in that game. That played a large role in the outcome of that game, as the injury came early in the first half. The win over Providence did come on the road, however once again Seton Hall caught some good fortune; Bryce Hopkins, the star forward for Providence, tore his ACL late in the first half of that game. So their wins look a little less impressive when taking these things into account. Lastly, the faced a Georgetown team on the road earlier this week that has really struggled this season, yet Seton Hall trailed with under 2 minutes to play. They had a few really fortunate bounces go their way late, and they needed every one of them to win the game, as they failed to cover as 7.5 point favorites on the road.

• This just feels like a spot that Seton Hall finally lets everyone down. They have been playing great, but again their is noise in some of those outcomes and numbers. They still are not a very good shooting team on the season, and they don’t have a road victory against a team as good as this Butler team is. I like the Bull Dogs in this spot all day, at home, laying just 4. I make this line closer to 6.5

Play #2: New Mexico -2 vs. San Diego State

• The Lobos of New Mexico were off to a terrific start this season before conference play began. They came into the start of Mountain West play with a 12-1 record, however everyone knows it’s hard to win on the road in a big time conference, which is exactly what the Mountain West is becoming. The Lobos have dropped 2 of their last 3, with losses to UNLV and Colorado State. However, once again, their is always a story & both of those losses came on the road to solid teams. UNLV isn’t fantastic, but they are solid on their home floor, and they’re playing better as of late. The other loss to Colorado State is not a surprising loss in their own right, as the Rams of CSU are easily a Top 25 team in the country this year. The Lobos are still undefeated at home this season, and I believe they will remain that way after Saturday’s game.

• The defending National Runner Up in the NCAA tourney is off to another great start to the season. After going 11-2 in non-conference, they have started off league play with a perfect 3-0 conference record. However, the schedule has benefited the Aztecs as they played 2 of those 3 games at home, and their 3 opponents so far in conference play will all likely finish in the bottom half of the Mountain West (with the possible exception of UNLV). The Aztecs have two losses this season, but both came on the road in hostile environments. They lost early in the year at BYU (who has looked much worse recently), and at Grand Canyon in a close game. Their other two road games included a win over Gonzaga, which is very impressive, although Gonzaga is significantly down this year from previous seasons (they have 5 losses, including two nights ago to Santa Clara). Their last outing on the road came against a 7-10 SJSU team who is also 0-3 in conference play, and the Aztecs barely squeaked out a victory.

• My biggest issue with SDSU, though, is their inconsistency. Although their record looks good on the surface, they actually SHOULD have 2 more losses on their record, to UC Irvine and UC San Diego. They squeaked out 1 point victories against both teams. They trailed in both games by 3+ with under a minute to play, and they had less than a 10% chance to win each game (they had a 1% chance to beat San Diego at one point late). Yet somehow they won both games. So just for sake of argument, if SDSU loses both of those games, this line is likely NM -6. To me that’s a good way to steal some value and I’ll take it.

Play #3: Texas A&M -2 vs. Kentucky 

• This is just a classic spot for A&M here → Kentucky comes into this game hot as an iron stove in a kitchen full of Italians, and A&M can’t buy a win as of late. It’s absolute desperation mode for the Aggies in this spot, and they get to do it at home against a young Kentucky team who has a lot of kids who have only seen this type of environment once or twice in their careers. Let’s look at A&M’s season though. This was a team that was ranked as high as #12 in the country early in the season. They battled through some injuries and despite a lack of health, they still entered conference play without a bad loss. They definitely would’ve liked to have won a few more games, but their 4 losses in the non-conference came against FAU on a neutral, at Virginia, vs. Memphis, and vs. Houston on a neutral (3 of those 4 ranked in the top 25 currently, the other right outside). They also had wins over Ohio State and SMU on the road, as well as Iowa State on a neutral. But that string of no bad losses ended last weekend when they were hammered by a bad LSU team at home by 15+ points. They followed it up with a loss at Auburn, and now here they sit, staring down the barrel of a possible 0-3 start to conference play. This is as MUST WIN of a game as it gets. And that’s why we see the 9-6 Ags laying 2 points against the #6 UK Wildcats coming in 12-2 (2-0, SEC). 

• Since losing at home to UNC Wilmington back in early December, the Wildcats have rattled off 7 in a row, including 2 straight to start conference play. This is no doubt one of the most talented teams Cal has had in his time at UK, and they no doubt will have a shot to make a real tourney run this year with their guard play. But as mentioned before this is just a horrific spot for them. Despite the improvements, this is still a very young team, and a team who did lose to UNC Wilmington at home a month and a half ago. I just think the environment, the desperation, and the situational spot are too much to overcome for the Wildcats. Give me the Aggies in a SEASON DEFINING Win at home. 

Play #4: Notre Dame +1 vs. Florida State

• This one is pretty simple. ND’s total resumé against Florida State’s total resumé is a no-brainer. FSU has the better wins, the better schedule, and they’ve obviously got the better record. However, FSU was just the beneficiary of a very weak start to conference play. They got to play 3 consecutive home ACC games in a row coming into this matchup, and all 3 were against unranked teams (GT, VT, & Wake). The game ag ainst GT is a game they absolutely should win at home. The game against VT is as well, yet they absolutely gave the game away late, giving VT a chance to actually win it, despite leading by 10 with under 2 minutes to play. Wake is the only really impressive win they have, but it plays to our advantage that it just happened. This is still a Seminoles team that lost to Lipscomb a few weeks ago.

• Now they are traveling on the road to a Notre Dame team that, once again, in totality doesn’t look very good. But anyone who has watched them play as of late can see that they are playing MUCH better basketball. They are playing super hard, and they’ve got a really good Point Guard in Markus Burton, who can fill it up. ND finally got over the hump in their previous game with a big road win over GT in Overtime. But even before that, they played Duke as 14.5 point underdogs at home last Saturday, and they really gave the Blue Devils all they could handle. Duke was a missed 3 pointer or two away from losing that game outright to the Fighting Irish. I know that crowd is going to be outstanding, which will help. But also, I just don’t see how FSU scores in the half court here. Notre Dame is actually outstanding defending in the half court, they just struggled to score the ball. The only way FSU can score effectively here is if they turn ND over a ton. If they can’t do that, which will be harder to do with Burton handling the ball and ND being at home, I don’t see how the Seminoles win this one. Give me ND all day at home here in a great spot to get a win. 

Play #5: Missouri -2 vs. South Carolina 

• I’m going to keep this one short and sweet, just like my handicap on this game was. Why? Because it’s pretty simple here. South Carolina has played 2 true road games this season thus far. They lost both. The first was early in the year at Clemson, which didn’t look bad until Clemson took a dive the past two weeks. They then went on the road for the second time this week and got absolutely pummeled by Bama by nearly 30. Now they have to go on the road to a desperate Missouri team who badly needs a conference win. They haven’t played great lately, but they still have some talent there, and they still have a great home court environment. 

• I’m taking Missouri in this one and I think they win it easily. This is a great spot for the Tigers against a team who struggles on the road in hostile environments. 

Play #6: TCU +5 vs. Houston 

• The truth of the matter is I don’t think TCU is some outstanding team by any means. However, what I do know is they 100% should be 2-0 in conference. They were absolutely robbed in Lawerence against Kansas last Saturday. They had the ball and a 1 point lead with under a minute to play, after securing a defensive rebound. Kansas was going to have to decide whether to foul or play it out, and either way, TCU has a massive advantage late. However a video review by the officials determined there was a flagrant foul on TCU, giving Kansas 2 free throws and the ball back. So it went from TCU ball up 1 with 50 seconds left, to down by 3 next time they touched the ball. It was a disgusting way to end a basketball game and the officials should be ashamed of themselves. 

• That said, it’s good for us in the betting market, because this game should be closer to a pick ‘em. I’m not sure TCU wins this game outright, but they definitely have a shot. And catching 5 points at home in a conference game is a nice pillow to have. 

• Looking at Houston, this is a team that is simple to break down because they always do the same thing. They are always ELITE in three areas: Defensively, toughness, and on the offensive glass. They always struggle to score the ball at times, rely too much on their guards and 1v1 isolations, and they foul way too much due to their physicality and crashing the glass so hard. One thing I really like about this matchup is that Houston has played in a much weaker conference in the past 5 years (since they’ve become a powerhouse in cbb). However, now they have transitioned to the Big 12, and now they are playing a much different caliber of athlete on a given night. They don’t get to go on the road and play East Carolina anymore. Instead, coming off a tough loss to Iowa State on the road, now they travel to a very good TCU team. And I think it will be really interesting to see how they respond if TCU jumps on them early in a wild environment. I think it could easily go south for them quick, knowing that this team is just as talented as they are. TCU is also just as athletic as Houston, and that will play a role as well, as Houston won’t have a size, athletic, or speed advantage whatsoever. 

• We are definitely rolling with the Horned Frogs +5 here. I also think this game is going to go way under, only because both teams struggle mightily to score in the half court. But we’re not going to touch the total = give me the Horned Frogs, and we will call them a live dog because they are!!

Play #7: Richmond -3 vs. George Mason

• It’s funny, because Richmond has become a staple for me during conference play the last few seasons. Why? Because they LOVE their Spiders down in Richmond, Virginia. That place sells out damn near every night, and it’s a very underrated home court advantage that few people know about. They pulled the upset as the home dog last week against St. Bonaventure as a 3 point dog. Now they are laying 3 at home against a very solid George Mason team. 

• The Spiders have won 5 in a row and they are off to a 2-0 start in conference play. This would be a huge win for them. I do think this game will be a battle until the end, but only laying 3 with this strong of a home court advantage where I see the two teams as pretty equal on a neutral floor. I’ll take the Spiders all day. Give me Richmond here 

Quick Opinions: these are not official plays but things I put a few bucks on or liked on initial look: 

1. Kansas -6 vs. OU

2. TTU -6 vs. K-State 

3. Georgia +8 vs. Tennessee 

4. Louisville +8 vs. NC State

5. Wake Forest -5 vs. Virginia 

6. Santa Clara +5 vs. St. Mary’s 

7. Southern Illinois +2.5 vs. Drake 

8. VT -3 vs. Miami 

9. Mississippi State -2 vs. Bama 

10. WVU +6 vs. Texas 

11. UNLV +2 vs. Utah State 

→ Once again I would not play these for more than fun or a few bucks. The official 7 plays at the top are all 2 unit plays and they are solid plays, backed by significant research and statistical models. These 11 here are based on just one of these = either a good number in my model/power rankings, a good matchup, or a good spot

College Hoops Best Bets (1/9/2024)

Author: Dylan Lieck | January 9th, 2024 | 4:51 P.M. CST

We crowned a National Champion last night in Houston, Texas, as the Michigan Wolverines claimed their first college football undisputed national title since 1948. Now that the college football season is over, we can transition to one of my favorite sports to handicap: College Basketball. We’ve been off to a BLISTERING hot start here on the website, with a 17-4 record (81%). Let’s see if we can keep it going tonight as there are some great spots for some wagers on the slate. Enjoy the #1 sports handicapping in the world for college basketball.

Play #1: Iowa State +3 vs. Houston: This is a great spot for the Cyclones, coming off a loss, now back at home where it’s really tough to win. You have a Houston team coming in with that #2 ranking beside their name, which skews the view of each team. We’re backing the dog in this spot every single time. Give me the Cyclones, as I believe they pull off the home upset over the Cougs tonight.

Play #2: Georgetown +7 vs. Seton Hall: Seton Hall has been playing some great basketball. In the past few weeks they’ve upset both UCONN and Marquette, both top 10 teams in the nation. However, both those wins were at home. Now they hit the road to take on a Georgetown team who has been very underwhelming this season. It’s a classic let down spot for Seton Hall here, and although Georgetown isn’t very good, Ed Cooley is still a very good coach. We’ll back the home dog here as well. Give me Georgetown all day here. There is a chance Georgetown struggles to shoot the ball here, and this one gets away from them, but 7 points is too much to pass up against a Seton Hall team that is inconsistent offensively.

Play #3: West Virginia +2 vs. K-State: Speaking of underwhelming teams, that is exactly what West Virginia has been this season. They are 5-9 and they are taking on an 11-3 K-State team. So why is the line just 2? Because K-State’s record masks a lot of problems that the Cats have had this season. They have a couple of bad losses, and they have relied heavily on winning games at home. Now they have to go on the road to a hostile environment against a conference opponent. Fans should be back in the stands here as schools start to get students back from Winter Break. Once again we will take the home dog here.

Pick #4: Nebraska +7.5 vs. Purdue: I’m just going to continue fading Purdue on the road until they drop another one. They dropped their first true road game against Northwestern (who’s been awful since), but they’ve rebounded with back-to-back road wins (and covers). It’s just too difficult to continue to go into hostile environments in conference, against teams that are familiar playing you, and continue to cover big numbers. Nebraska looks to be at full strength, and that gym will be PACKED for the #1 team in the nation coming to town. Once again we’re backing the home dog here (see the trend). I think Nebraska has a shot to pull the outright upset. Let’s hope we see a court storming in Lincoln tonight.

Pick #5: Pittsburgh +5.5 vs. Duke: So, yeah we’re going to take another home dog tonight. And it’s another ugly one in the Pittsburgh Panthers. Look when the Panthers are bad, it’s really bad. When it’s good, it’s really good, largely because they rely so heavily on the three-ball. Pittsburgh has lost a couple of home conference games already this season (Clemson & UNC) and they really struggled to shoot the ball in both games. However, the crowd should be back at full strength tonight (which it was not in those two games). Pittsburgh last season under Jeff Capel had some big upsets at home, and I think we see one tonight over Duke. The Blue Devils have been pretty underwhelming as a whole this season, but especially on the road. They struggled to pull away against ND on the road on Saturday night. They pulled out the win, but never had a chance to cover against a ND team that’s much worse than this Pittsburgh team. Once again, we have a live dog here in the Panthers, with a shot to get a big win in ACC play.

Pick #6: Baylor -4 vs. BYU: Alas, we finally took a favorite!! But let’s not stray too far, as we are sticking with a home team in conference play. BYU has been really solid this season, and I’ve actually been unimpressed with Baylor so far this season. That said, they picked up a big road win at Oki State last week. DJ Dennis has been absolutely outstanding so far this season, and that should continue tonight, at home against a less than stellar defense for the Cougars. The Bears also are the best 3-point shooting team in the country, but they had a terrible night from beyond the arc in the win over Oki State. I think they will bounce back in front of their home crowd tonight. I would not be surprised to see north of 10 threes made (maybe 15) for the Bears. They love the three-ball and the Cougars are significantly worse defending the perimeter on the road (See Utah game). The Cougars have only seen one road game this season with a crowd similar to this one, and they struggled mightily. I think 4 is too short of a number. I make this closer to 7. Give me the Bears to win big here. I see a double digit victory here.

All Units are 1 for these plays. However, I would say my favorite play is Iowa State. I did put a little bit more on that play than the others, just because I love the Iowa State home court so much, as well as the fact that it’s just hard to win as a highly ranked team on the road in conference. Good luck to all who tail!!

College Basketball Best Bets (1/3/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | January 3rd, 2023 | 5:15 P.M. CST

College Hoops Ramping Up For Conference Play:

We’ve got 3 college basketball best bets today. On the website’s official picks for College Hoops this year we are off to a BLISTERING HOT start at 17-4 (80.1%). I would say a couple things before I get to the best bets. First, I have consistently picked at 70%+ in college basketball REGULAR SEASON the past 3 years. This year has been abnormally good to me this early in the season. Conference play is when I really make my big moves and get hot. Hopefully we can just have an incredible run this season, BUT the odds are that this is coming back to earth. The sample size over the past 3 years (not including this season), is 72% in college hoops regular season. Considering we’re at 80+ we are going to likely see some regression soon. Secondly, this time of year can be tricky. As those of you who follow my plays know, my college basketball bets often focus on home teams. However, during this time, students are not all back on campus, and crowds/home court can be much more difficult to predict. Nonetheless, let’s try to keep it rolling tonight (and yes we’re rolling with home teams tonight still).

Best Bet #1 (Play of the Night): Miami Florida +1.5 vs. Clemson

Miami has been a very odd team this year, coming off their cinderella Final Four Run last season in the NCAA Tourney. The Canes currently sit 10-2 overall (1-0 ACC play), unranked in the AP Top 25, despite a pretty decent start to the season. They were ranked in the top 25 for much of the start of the season, following a 5-0 start. However, they suffered tough loss to Kentucky on the road (by 22 points) after the hot start. They dropped again after a 27-point loss to unranked Colorado a few games later. The weird thing about this team, though, is that they have played 12 total games this season, and only 3 of those contests were settled by single digits (either way). They’ve pretty much either blown their opponent out, or they’ve gotten blown out. The closest game they’ve played was a 6-point victory against FIU in the third game of the season.

The worry when looking at this game would be that Miami has stepped up in class twice (UK & Colorado) and they got smoked both times. That’s a valid concern here, as the Canes did not look good in either contest. However, this is a big game for Miami, they’re in the comfort of their own gym, and they’re coming off some rest from the break.

Additionally, both teams are elite shooting the ball, but the Canes shoot it better than the Tigers, ranking 5th nationally in 3 point percentage. In college basketball, role players tend to really shoot the ball better at home, and I think that’s going to play a factor in this one.

Lastly, when you look at Clemson’s schedule, they’ve played three true road games so far this season. Their most recent road game resulted in their lone loss of the season (a 2-point loss to Memphis). They did go on the road earlier in the year and beat Alabama in their own building, a tough place to play. However, that Bama team is WAY down this year from what they’ve been in years past. The other road win came at a Pittsburgh team that’s one of the worst offensive teams in the country. Pittsburgh still put up 70 on the Tigers in that loss. I think Miami is going to do whatever they want on offense in this matchup. They are going to make a ton of threes, and they’re going to force Clemson to play from behind, something they haven’t had to do much this season. Additionally, Miami’s athletes should give Clemson’s guards some trouble here, forcing a large amount of turnovers. In their last road game against a superior team athletically (Memphis), Clemson turned the ball over 15 times, largely because they couldn’t handle the quickness & speed that Memphis had on the court. Miami will do similar things to them here, and it will give Clemson trouble. The place won’t be rocking as it would be if this game were played a couple weeks later, but I still think the Canes at home are a great play. Give me Miami in this spot all day.

Official Pick: Miami Hurricanes +1.5 (Play to PK)

Best Bet #2: Providence -5.5 vs. Seton Hall

This is a spot play pretty much. Seton Hall has not been very good this season as a whole, but they’ve been horrific on the road. I’ve watched this team play multiple times, and they just really struggle to score the basketball. They are getting too much credit analytically, due to that dominating win they had over UCONN. That game was at Seton Hall, it was a rivalry game, and UCONN’s best big man (Donavan Clingan) got hurt early in the first half, causing UCONN to have to really shift their gameplan & rotations.

Seton Hall followed up that performance by going on the road against Xavier, where they were absolutely dismantled by a team that has multiple mid-major losses on their resume this season. I guess the thought process is Seton Hall is inconsistent, and there’s a decent chance they show well in this spot. But the truth is they’re a bad road team, playing against a team that has been elite at home. Providence has won 10 in a row at home going into this matchup, and 7 of those games have been by double digits. I wouldn’t play this above 6, and I’m only going 1-unit because of the winter break aspect to the homecourt advantage. However, I still like the Friars in this spot to cover a relatively small number. To me, the Friars would be a 5 point favorite on a neutral against SH, so let’s take the value here.

Official Pick: Providence Friars -5.5

Best Bet #3: UCLA -4 vs. Stanford

Basically, we’re going to bet a buy low, sell high spot on this one, along with some home court advantage. Stanford played it’s best game of the season a few nights ago (maybe the best game they’ve played in a decade), putting up a 100-piece on the #4 ranked Arizona Wildcats at home. I sure do believe in HC advantage being a massive factor in college hoops, but that one even surprised me. I thought Arizona was maybe the second best team in the country before that matchup, and Stanford just annihilated them.

Sell High on the Cardinal: The problem for Stanford is that on the season they shoot just above 37% from the three point line. In that game against Arizona they where a whopping 16/25 (64%). They were absolutely unconscience from beyond the arc all night long, and it’s damn near impossible to beat a team at home shooting like that. When you come off a game shooting that incredibly well, beating the #4 team in the country when nobody gave you a shot, it’s a clear let down spot here to say the least. I think Stanford stinks it up in this one, and even if they don’t there is zero chance they shoot it even close to as well as they did against the Wildcats.

Buy Low on the Bruins: On the other side, it’s a been a very weird year for Mick Cronin’s team. They started off the season with a pretty good showing in Maui, going 1-2, but really competing in their two losses to teams who are going to be Elite 8/Final 4 contenders this season. Their young guards played exceptionally well, and they looked like a team that had a good shot to contend in the Pac-12 this season. However, since then they’ve done nothing but struggle. They’re coming off a tough 5-point loss at Oregon, and they’ve now dropped 6 of their last 8 games. During that tough stretch they even lost to a low-major team in Cal State Northridge at home. Now they go back home, in what looks like a must win game. This team pretty much has to start turning it around right now if they want a shot at playing in mid-march. The positive news for the Bruins is this could be a perfect spot to get right, getting an overconfident Stanford team coming into your building, knowing that you’ve been struggling. If nothing else, UCLA has a talent edge in this one, and even though they’ve had a rough year, Cronnin is still an elite coach. Give me the Bruins in this one, as we’re getting a depressed price due to the recent results of each team. This number should be closer to 6.5.

Official Pick: UCLA Bruins -4

Best Bets 12/30/23 (CBB, CFB Bowl Games, NFL)

Author: Dylan Lieck | Dec. 30th, 2023 | 10:33 A.M. CST

I apologize for the late post, as some of these games start soon, but I want them to at least be posted on here before kickoff so that they will go down on my official record & be tracked.

College Basketball Picks

Syracuse -1.5 vs. Pittsburgh

Marquette -3.5 vs. Creighton

These are simply two home teams playing conference games. I’m going to take 99% of these power 5 teams at home when the line is less between -5 and +8. In Marquettes case, they are actually the better team, and they are at home. Syracuse and Pittsburgh are relatively equal, but we have a big home court advantage.

College Football Picks

Ole Miss +4.5 vs. Penn State (Chick Fil A Peach Bowl)

Ole Miss has a MASSIVE coaching advantage in this one. Lane Kiffin with a month to prepare, in a game that is pretty meaningful to his program - you are going to get a GREAT offensive gameplan for the Rebels ssssin this spot. The only question is can their defense get stops. The good thing is, Penn State’s offense is horrific, and Drew Allar has been awful whenever he’s stepped up in class this season. On the other hand James Franklin has just been terrible in big games. He’s not been great in big time bowl games either, especially not in meaningful bowl games. I think Kiffin has a massive edge over Franklin. One coach is innovative, smart, and will have his team ready. The other coach is a bafoon who has been lucky to keep his job this long. Give me Ole Miss with the points in this spot and sprinkle some on the moneyline at +165

Wyoming -3.5 vs. Toledo (Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl)

Wyoming is playing this game for their head coach, Craig Bohl. Bohl is retiring at the conclusion of this game after a storied career in college football. He won 3 national titles at the FCS level with North Dakota State. He’s done an incredible job with this Wyoming program in his tenure as well. His guys love him, and they will be playing super hard to win this game for their leader. Additionally, Toledo, who has been really solid this year, lost their QB (Dequan Finn) to the transfer portal, and they will be starting their backup QB. Lastly, I just think there is a matchup advantage in the trenches here for Wyoming. They have the better offensive and defensive lines, and I think it’s going to be tough for Toledo to hang in this game over the course of 60 minutes.

NFL Pick

NFL Teaser (2 Team, 6 Point): Cowboys +.5 to Rams -.5

I like the best bet teaser that I gave out on Thursday better than this one (Browns to Chiefs), but I still like this one too. Dallas is just in a great spot here, off two losses, back at home against a bad defense. This is also a terrible spot for the Lions, coming off winning their first divisional title in 30 years. They also should’ve lost last week to a team starting Nick Mullins at QB. Give me the Cowboys here in a get right spot.

The Rams just have much more to play for in this game. The Giants definitely upgrade by going to Tyrod Taylor over Tommy Devito’s bum ass. But, I still like the Rams here. There is no team playing better offensively right now than the L.A. Rams, and they are doing enough defensively to win games. They’ve won 5 of their last 6, and this is a massive game for their playoff hopes. The Giants have no incentive to win this game, as they really just want a better draft pick. It doesn’t mean they won’t play hard, but the motivation factor strongly favors the Rams. Lastly, it’s in New York where the weather isn’t usually great, however there seems to be clear skies in the forecast. That strongly favors the Rams pass oriented offense. give me the Rams here.

All bets today will be 2 units

NFL Teaser of the Week

Author: Dylan Lieck | Dec. 28, 2023 | 5:25 P.M. CST

NFL Teaser of the week is going to be a Thursday game paired with a Sunday game. I think there’s some great value on some teaser legs this week.

NFL Teaser of the Week: Browns -1 to Chiefs -1

Leg 1: Cleveland Browns -1 vs. New York Jets

Summary: This is just a significantly superior team in the Cleveland Browns taking on a Jets team that has really struggled this season, especially offensively. The Jets OC Nathaniel Hackett I truly believe is the worst Offensive Coordinator in the history of the NFL. Pair him with Trevor Simien at QB and it’s an absolute disaster waiting to happen. The Jets offense looked good last week behind their one true weapon, Breece Hall. However, that game was a home game against a horrific Washington Commander’s Defense. I don’t see Hall doing that against a much superior Cleveland defense. Add to that the fact that the Browns “D” has been significantly better at home this season. The Jets will put together a few drives throughout the game, largely because the Browns are prone to giving up explosive plays. But, I just don’t see how the Jets have any sort of consistent success offensively.

Therefore, the only way this game is relatively close is the Jets defense. Flacco has been prone to interceptions since taking over as QB for the Browns, so there definitely could be some short fields for the Jets in this one. I actually think with both QBs prone to TO’s that there is likely to be more points than expected. That said, I wouldn’t trust either offense to just dominate the game.

Overall there’s a big coaching mismatch here, there’s a big talent gap here, and there’s a giant motivation discrepancy here. The Jets have no incentive to win this game, while the Browns are playing to lock up a playoff spot. They also have incentive to win in the sense that a win likely cements them as the #5 seed in the AFC, which is a huge advantage compared to the #6 seed. The #5 seed is likely to face the winner of the AFC South (Jags, Texans, or Colts), whereas the #6 seed is going to likely have to go to Kansas City in the first round. Although the Chiefs have struggled as of late, nobody is going to prefer playing in Arrowhead in January as opposed to Jacksonville, Houston, or Indi.

Give me the Browns in this teaser leg. I don’t think it’s particularly close, but if it is, they should pull out the outright victory either way.

Leg 2: Kansas City Chiefs -1. vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Summary:

Once again we have a big mismatch in terms of talent. Yes, the Chiefs have struggled offensively as of late, and I don’t see them as the same team as years past. However, this is a GREAT get right spot for that offense. The Bengals are bottom 10 in the NFL in almost every significant defensive statistic. They’re horrible against both the run and the pass, their bottom 10 in EPA, Success Rate allowed, yards per play, yards per game, and points per game. They also don’t have anyone in the secondary who will be able to take away Travis Kelce. With how it’s gone for Kelce and Mahomes the last few weeks, I’d be very surprised if they didn’t both have HUGE games against this much maligned Bengals defense. Last week, the Pittsburgh Steelers were down to a third string QB in Mason Rudolph when playing the Bengals. That defense allowed George Pickens to go for nearly 200 yards and 2 TDs. Isaiah Paceko is currently questionable, but he tends to fight through minor injuries and play whenever possible. If he goes, which I think he will, he is in line for a big day as well. There should be plenty of points coming for this Chiefs offense.

On the other side of the ball, the Chiefs Defense is one thing that’s much improved for this team. They have been outstanding this season, and this is by far the best defense Kansas City has had in the Mahomes era. The Bengals on the other hand, have definitely looked better than expected since Joe Burrow’s season came to an end with a wrist injury. However, large portions of the Bengals offensive success have come in two areas: in home games, and against bad defenses. This matchup features neither of the two, as the Bengals are facing a top 10 defense on the road.. Last week on the road against a defense that is not nearly as good as the Chiefs (the Steelers), Browning really struggled, throwing three interceptions. The Bengals were never in the game, they struggled to protect Browning, and when they did have any sort of offensive success, they stalled inside the 10 yard line. I’d be very surprised if the Bengals have any sort of consistent success on the offensively here.

Overall this is an easy teaser leg for me. The Chiefs need this win big time. They don’t lose back to back games often, and they have been historically really good at home in this time of the year. They have a home game here against an inferior opponent. Look for them to bounce back in a big way in this spot. Give me the Chiefs here BIG.

OFFICIAL PICK: 2 Team 6 Point Teaser: Cleveland Browns -1 | Kansas City Chiefs -1
Units: 2 Units

CFB Bowl Game Best Bets

Author: Dylan Lieck | 12/23/23 | 11:33 P.M. CST

In this quick post I’m just going to give you all my 4 favorite bowl picks so far. Two of these are this afternoon, however both of those have already been posted with detailed write ups 2 days ago. If you are looking for more information on the games check out those posts.

4 Best Bets: Bowl Games

1) Utah State -1 vs. Georgia State: play to -2.5

2) Air Force +2 vs. James Madison: play to Pick ‘Em

3) Oklahoma State +2 vs. Texas A&M: play to Pick ‘Em

4) SMU vs. Boston College UNDER 50: MAYBE a play to 49. Id probably pass at anything worse than 50. Definitely nothing below 49.

I’ve mentioned this previously, but with all the variables that go into bowl games these days, these bowl games can have lots of variance. Therefore I strongly suggest limiting your bets to ONE unit. Whether you’re playing my plays or your own. There’s always more opportunities for wagers, and you don’t want to get in a big hole on games with this much variance. For reference I may put 1 to 3 units on any given college basketball play. Same for the NFL. These bowl games my biggest bet was 1 unit. As always good luck, and have a happy holidays!!

Dylan Lieck Official Rated Plays:

1) College Football: 29-24 (54.7%)

2) NFL: 12-8-1 (60%)

3) College Basketball: 15-4 (78.9%)

Overall Record: 56-36-1 (60.9%)

Best Bet: Armed Forces Bowl (12/23/23)

Author: Dylan Lieck | Dec. 22, 2023 | 3:21 A.M. CST

Armed Forces Bowl

Game: James Madison Dukes (11-1) vs. Air Force Falcons (8-4)

• Date: 12/23/23

• Time: 2:30 P.M. CST

• Spread: James Madison -2

• Location: Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, Texas

• Weather (Predictive): 62 Degrees, Sunny

• Pick: Air Force +2

Market Movement:

There has been significant sharp money on Air Force, however that money did come in mostly at a bigger number. The line opened with James Madison a 4.5 point favorite. A clear signal of the sharp money on Air Force is the line movement through the key number of 3. So we saw professionals hit this game at +4.5, +4, +3.5, +3, and now even some support under a field goal. Some of the sharper shops are currently trending towards 1.5. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this line close closer to a Pick ‘Em.

Matchup:

If you were to look at this game from a pure matchup standpoint, I actually would give the edge to James Madison. They’ve been elite this season defensively, especially up front where they really force teams out of their running game. That would not bode well for Air Force, as the Falcons obviously run the triple option. Luckily for Air Force, this game is not purely about the matchups, but rather about the key players that possibly could miss the game for JMU.

Coaching Departures for James Madison:

Head Coach Curt Cignetti departs James Madison for Indiana, which is a great hire for the Hoosiers as Tom Allen departs. Cignetti is not the only coach to leave, though, as he is taking a good portion of the staff with him. That includes the Offensive Coordinator, the Defensive Coordinator, and the QB Coach. In fact, James Madison is so short handed from the coaching departures that they had to hire 5 temporary coaches just to coach the bowl game. The Offensive Line coach will be the acting head coach for this matchup.

This is a huge issue for James Madison in this one, and it’s significant to the handicap. You have a team who accomplished a lot this year, but they didn’t get to play for their conference championship, which was the ultimate goal for this team. Despite being able to finish 11-1, they didn’t get to play for a New Years Six Bowl. Now they have to get up to take on a super boring Air Force team in the Armed Forces Bowl? Add to that the fact that they have a makeshift coaching staff with a head coach who’s never led a team before. It’s a terrible spot for JMU

Key Departures (Transfer Portal & Opt Outs)

James Madison:

• Offense: Starting QB, Starting RB, Best WR, Starting LT

• Defense: Two Starting LBs, Two Starting Defensive Lineman, Starting CB

• The number of guys leaving JMU is staggering, but it’s to be expected with the departure of the coach as well as the success of this team this season

• The one thing to keep an eye on for this game: A lot of the guys who are entering the portal are claiming they are still going to play in the bowl game. The problem with this for JMU is that it’s really hard to believe those guys are going to be motivated to go all out here. It’s a meaningless, shitty bowl game. I just don’t see those guys risking injury and their shot at playing a big time school in order to win the Armed Forces Bowl. Therefore, even if these guys do play, I still think the fact that they are departing and currently looking for other schools makes me believe that they will not be 100% focused on winning this game

Air Force:

• Air Force’s Starting RB is the only key departure for the Falcons. That is to be expected, as the service academies often don’t have the same issues with losing players to the portal that other schools have

Zach Larrier:

A very important aspect of this game is the fact that Air Force is set to get their starting QB, Zach Larrier, back for this bowl game. Larrier was outstanding this season, and he actually gave Air Force a legitimate passing threat (something they are not used to having). Larrier suffered multiple injuries towards the end of the season, and that was a large reason for Air Force’s struggles down the stretch. In games that Larrier started and finished, the Falcons lost just one game this season. Without Larrier in the lineup, the Falcons looked like a very subpar team.

He’s massive to their success, and getting him back could legitimately be the difference between a win and loss here. I do think he will hit some big explosives in the pass game against a JMU defense that will very likely be selling out against the run.

Buy Low Spot:

The last important point I’ll make for this game is that this is perfect buy low spot on Air Force. This is a team that started the season 8-0 and was ranked in the top 25. Not only were the playing great on the offensive side, but the defense was outstanding through the first 8 games. Once Larrier went down, though, both sides of the ball dropped off. Likely partially because without Larrier, the offensive drives were much shorter, and therefore the defense was on the field much more.

Overall though, this is the absolute bottom of the barrel in terms of price for Air Force. I mean, what is this line after Air Force starts 8-0? I can tell you that JMU is absolutely not favored.

Service Academies In Bowl Games:

In the recent past, service academies have been outstanding in Bowl games, both straight up and against the spread. Why? Because in a day and age where motivation is a question mark for some of these teams (with so many guys hitting the transfer portal), you never have to worry about the focus or effort of a service academy. Air Force themselves has won and covered 4 of their last 5 bowl games. Army has won 4 bowl games in a row straight up. And, Navy has covered 5 of their last 6 bowl game appearances. Clearly the service academies have a good track record in modern day bowl games, and it’s no different in this one.

Pick:

I think Air Force, when healthy, is the better team. Add to that the bandaid coaching staff and a boatload of players set to leave JMU following the bowl game and you have a line that is a bit off, given the return of the Falcon’s top QB. Thus, we’re getting an absolutely awesome price here with them sitting as two point dogs. I really would’ve loved this pick if we could’ve gotten +3 earlier this month, but that is obviously long gone. I still think there is value on the Falcons as a short dog, So give me Air Force plus the points in this spot. I would play them up to a Pick "‘Em.

Official Pick: Air Force +2

Best Bet: Famous Idaho Potato Bowl (12/23/23)

Author: Dylan Lieck | Dec. 21, 2023 | 10:01 P.M. CST

As mentioned in the Bowl Picks Summary, make sure to understand that we do have an edge in these picks. And they are all things that I’ve bet myself. However, there is a significant amount of variance in these bowl games as it’s very difficult to measure motivation of different teams. There tend to be some bad beats each bowl season, as things can turn around in a hurry. All that said, let’s dive into this pick.

Game: Utah State Aggies (6-6) vs. Georgia State Panthers (6-6)

• Date: 12/23/23

• Time: 2:30 P.M. CST

• Spread: Utah State -1

• Location: Boise, Idaho

• Weather (Predictive): 42 Degrees, Sunny

• Pick: Utah State -1

Market Moves:

This line opened with Georgia State as a short favorite (GAST -2.5). We swung a full 5 points and got as high as Utah State -2.5. There was a lot of professional support for the Aggies here, but for some reason we’ve seen some buy back on Georgia State in the past 24 hours. The line moved back to Utah State -1. I’m not quite sure why the move all of the sudden, as there’s been no significant changes to either team, and there’s not really a great middle opportunity considering the line has never touched 3 either way. Regardless, I agree with the EARLY money on the Aggies, rather than the most recent move.

Matchup:

Neither Utah State nor Georgia State comes into this off great regular seasons, as both teams finished the season 6-6. However, one team clearly comes into this game playing much better football, and that is Utah State. The Aggies started off the season extremely poorly, which was expected, going 3-5 in their first 8 games. A lot of their roster from a good team in 2022 was depleted from the transfer portal and the expectations were not very high. However, the team rallied and finished winning 3 of their last 4 games to get bowl eligible. Oddly enough, the Aggies don’t have a bad loss on their schedule this season in terms of level of competition. All 6 of their losses came against teams who finished the season with winning records. The Aggies offense really got going in their last 4 games, scoring 32+ points in 3 of their last 4 games.

On the other side, Georgia State comes into this bowl matchup in extremely bad form. After a blistering start to the season (6-1 their first 7 games), they finished on a 5-game losing streak. 4 of those 5 losses came by 17 points or more, including 3 losses by 28+ points. The Panthers lone loss by less than 17 points in that stretch came in the final game of the season. In that game at Old Dominion, the Panthers led by 14 points going into the fourth quarter. They also led by 10 points with under 2 minutes to play, yet they inexplicably lost to the Monarchs on the final play of the game, 25-24. This team is on a completely different trajectory than their opponent, as they have been playing their worst football of the season as of late. You also have a situation in which Georgia State gave up AT LEAST 42 points in 4 of their final 5 contests (the lone game that didn’t they still gave up 25). Match that with a Utah State offense that has been scoring in the 30s and 40s most of the second half of the season, and that was against better competition than Georgia State. If this was the only thing to take into consideration, and both teams were at full strength, I’d still lean Utah State. But let’s take a look at the key departures.

Key Departures (Transfer Portal & Opt Outs):

Georgia State has been hit HARD by the transfer portal, and it has depleted their roster for this bowl matchup.

Georgia State:

• RB Marcus Carroll: 274 Rush, 1,350 Yards, 13 TDs + 23 catches, 234 yards (7th in the nation in rush yards) - transferring to Missouri

• GAST’s backup RB is also transferring, so they’ll be down to their 3rd string RB

• WR1 Robert Lewis: 70 Catches, 877 Yards, 7 TDs (Leads Team in All 3 Categories) - Lewis is by far their best WR and he’s gone to Auburn

• RT Montavious Cunningham: Their best offensive lineman hit the portal and is going to Virginia Tech

• CB Bryquice Brown: 34 Tackles, 6 Pass Defenses, 1 INT (Led Team in Pass Defenses) - Brown is their best CB and he’s gone to Boston College

Utah State

• S Devin Dye: 81 Tackles, 7 Pass Defenses, 2 INTs, 1 Fumble Recovery (Leads Team in Pass Defenses)

Notes: Notice that not only is Georgia State losing significant production from their team, but also the quality of schools those players are going to. All four of their major losses (RB, WR, RT, & CB) are going to Power 5 schools. Thus, the amount of talent being lost from Georgia State for this game is very significant. Also note that even with those quality players, this team struggled significantly down the stretch. Thus, it’s fair to question the ability of this Georgia State team to play well in this bowl game.

Utah State QB Situation:

Utah State loses only ONE key player from its roster to the transfer portal, and that’s their starting Safety. He’s a very good secondary piece, but compared to the losses for Georgia State, it’s really not close. You’re taking away their best 3 skill position guys, as well as the best Lineman on the offensive side of the ball. They didn’t lose much on defense, but their defense has been really bad this season, and losing their top CB won’t help.

The only reason this line isn’t bigger is because of the QB situation at Utah State. Both the starter & the backup are injured and won’t be playing in the bowl game for the Aggies, so 3rd string QB Levi Williams will get the start. However, if you are familiar with Williams, you’d know that he’s a solid QB. Williams started multiple games at Wyoming over the course of his career, and he has had success at times throughout his career. He started in this very Bowl Game a few years ago for Wyoming, a game in which he led the Cowboys to a Bowl Game victory while rushing for 3 TDs. He also started the final game of the season for the Aggies at New Mexico, a game where he led the Aggies to their 6th win of the season to get them bowl eligible. In that game, the Aggies offense put up 44 points (31 in regulation, 13 in the overtime periods. Williams was 16/27, threw for 198 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT. He also ran it 25 times for 153 yards and 3 TDs. That is the key element here: Levi Williams’ legs. He’s a very good runner & a true dual threat. That’s going to cause big problems for Georgia State, and I believe Williams will have a big time day on the ground.

Lastly, Williams has already announced that following this school year, he will be enlisting, attempting to join the Navy Seals, to serve his country. This kid is going to give everything he has in his final collegiate game after a 5 year career, and we KNOW that we’re going to get his best effort. Therefore, I really wouldn’t downgrade Utah State here at all for having a third string as their starter.

Location Advantage:

Of course Idaho is significantly closer to Utah than it is to Georgia, so the Aggies may have a few more fans there than the Panthers. However, I highly doubt there’s going to be any attendance records set in this bowl game. That said, the physical location is not the advantage that Utah State has in this one. Rather, it’s the color of the turf. Yup, you heard that right. This game is being played on Boise State’s homefield, home of the infamous blue turf. While it’s not a giant advantage, Utah State is familiar playing on this field, as they have faced Boise State in their home stadium on a usual basis (they are in the same conference). Georgia State on the other hand has never played on the blue turf, and it’s definitely possible that this could play a factor, especially early in the game. Again, I’m not saying that this is a massive factor in the handicap of this game, but it definitely is something to consider. And, when we are looking for edges wherever we can find them, they start to add up when you look at the entirety of the situation here. Less travel, likely more fans, and more familiarity with the environment equal all positive factors for Utah State.

Pick:

Overall, I love Utah State in this game. I think there is a ton of value still now that the line has shortened back to -1. I would play the Aggies all the way to -2.5. I truly thought the line would close closer to 3, but for some reason it’s gotten very short. I make this game Utah State -2 on a neutral field, with both teams fully healthy. With all the key departures for Georgia State and the lack of a downgrade for Utah State’s QB, I’ve adjusted my power ratings a full 2 points, leaving my number at Utah State -4. Therefore we’re happy to lay the 1 here. So sit back, enjoy watching the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl on that beautiful (but really disgusting) blue turf, and line your wallets with a few bucks at the end of the day. Best of luck and Merry Christmas!!

Official Pick: Utah State -1

NFL Picks (12/17/23)

Author: Dylan Lieck | December 16th, 2023 | 11:11 P.M. CST

We’re already 1-0 on the week 11-8 on the season. Definitely been a down year, but we’re back in the green with a win today (Thank Detroit Lions). Easy winner. Let’s keep this streak going and get another win with our teaser of the week.

NFL Best Bet that won yesterday: Detroit Lions -4.5

• We started up 21-0 and it was never really a competitive game

NFL Teaser of the Week

2-Team 6-Point Teaser: Chiefs -2.5 to Rams -.5

Chiefs -2.5

• This is a simple value bet. We’re getting the Chiefs a a DIRT cheap price here, basically because they’ve lost the last two games, and because they’ve not looked good on offense for the entirety of the year. Look, I get that the Patriots won last week. I get that the Chiefs have looked really subpar so far this season. I get that this game is in New England and the defense of the Pats has been playing really well. But I’d have a really hard time selling anyone on taking the Patriots -2.5. So on the value side of things we’re getting the Chiefs to basically win the game. The Chiefs have lost two in a row, but if you look back, that is the first time the Chiefs have lost two in a row since week 3 of 2021. It’s almost unheard of for the Chiefs to lose 3 in a row. And it isn’t like they are playing Buffalo or Philadelphia here. They’re playing one of the worst teams in the league.

• Also the Patriots are just horrible. Yes they won last week against the Steelers, but Pittsburgh is an absolute fraud, and we saw that again today as they lost to the Colts. The Steelers spotted the Pats 21 points in that game and still almost found a way to lose. There is no way you are going to convince me there’s any value on the Pats at +8.5, so getting them to 2.5 is great.

• Obviously we’re going through the key numbers of BOTH 7 and 3, so it’s a great teaser leg number wise. We basically check all the boxes here. I don’t love it being on the road, but I’m just never passing this number up for a teaser leg. I’d give this a 94% chance of hitting, significantly above the break-even line for teasers. No Brainer here.

Rams -.5

• Look I don’t LOVE this leg, as we are only going through ONE key number, and we’re taking a team who won a tough game last week. But this is the Rams season. If LA loses this game, they are essentially dead in the NFC playoff race. But a win gives them a great shot to get in the playoffs. This is a MASSIVE game for them, and it’s clear the last 5 weeks that the Rams really do want to get in.

• Stafford is playing at a super high level right now, and the Commanders secondary has been horrific this season. We watched those Rams WRs TORCH a very good Ravens secondary last week in bad weather. What are they going to do to one of the worst defenses in the league? This comes down to one thing: Pressure. If the Commanders can’t get pressured, they are going to get absolutely diced up in the secondary.

• We’re going to roll with the Rams here in this spot, at home, in a must win. The Commanders have nothing to play for. Sam Howell loves taking sacks and turning it over, so I see Aaron Donald having a field day here.

Official Picks for the Teaser: Chiefs -2.5 | Rams -.5

Units: 2