College Hoops Best Bets (1/13/2024)
Author: Dylan Lieck | January 13th, 2024 | 12:03 A.M. CST
College football is over and that means it’s time to LOCK IN on college basketball. And we’ve got a massive slate on deck for this Saturday. If you want some NFL playoff bets, check out my next blog post with my Wild Card Best Bets. But let’s jump right into our plays for college hoops this Saturday.
Play #1: Butler -4 vs. Seton Hall
Butler is back at home coming off a massive win over Marquette on the road, which broke a 3-game losing streak for the Bulldogs. However, that losing streak included two losses on the road, as well as a third loss against UCONN (who I believe is the best, most complete team in the country). This Butler team was solid in the non-conference, with their only two losses coming at Michigan State and against a very good FAU team. The win over Marquette got this group back on track, and we know they have the ability to beat anyone in the country. But I love them in this spot because of the home court - they have one of the best home court advantages in the country (probably the best in the Big East). They have home wins over Texas Tech and Boise State earlier this season, both of which look like much better wins with how those two teams have played as of late
As for Seton Hall, they’ve been playing outstanding as of late. There is no way around that; they are playing some great basketball. They’re 4-1 in their past 5 games with wins over UCONN, Marquette, and Providence. However, when you look at those wins, there is a story to each. The wins over Marquette and UCONN both came at home. The win over UCONN included the Huskies star big man (Donovan Clingan) going down to an injury early in that game. That played a large role in the outcome of that game, as the injury came early in the first half. The win over Providence did come on the road, however once again Seton Hall caught some good fortune; Bryce Hopkins, the star forward for Providence, tore his ACL late in the first half of that game. So their wins look a little less impressive when taking these things into account. Lastly, the faced a Georgetown team on the road earlier this week that has really struggled this season, yet Seton Hall trailed with under 2 minutes to play. They had a few really fortunate bounces go their way late, and they needed every one of them to win the game, as they failed to cover as 7.5 point favorites on the road.
This just feels like a spot that Seton Hall finally lets everyone down. They have been playing great, but again their is noise in some of those outcomes and numbers. They still are not a very good shooting team on the season, and they don’t have a road victory against a team as good as this Butler team is. I like the Bull Dogs in this spot all day, at home, laying just 4. I make this line closer to 6.5
Play #2: New Mexico -2 vs. San Diego State
The Lobos of New Mexico were off to a terrific start this season before conference play began. They came into the start of Mountain West play with a 12-1 record, however everyone knows it’s hard to win on the road in a big time conference, which is exactly what the Mountain West is becoming. The Lobos have dropped 2 of their last 3, with losses to UNLV and Colorado State. However, once again, their is always a story & both of those losses came on the road to solid teams. UNLV isn’t fantastic, but they are solid on their home floor, and they’re playing better as of late. The other loss to Colorado State is not a surprising loss in their own right, as the Rams of CSU are easily a Top 25 team in the country this year. The Lobos are still undefeated at home this season, and I believe they will remain that way after Saturday’s game.
The defending National Runner Up in the NCAA tourney is off to another great start to the season. After going 11-2 in non-conference, they have started off league play with a perfect 3-0 conference record. However, the schedule has benefited the Aztecs as they played 2 of those 3 games at home, and their 3 opponents so far in conference play will all likely finish in the bottom half of the Mountain West (with the possible exception of UNLV). The Aztecs have two losses this season, but both came on the road in hostile environments. They lost early in the year at BYU (who has looked much worse recently), and at Grand Canyon in a close game. Their other two road games included a win over Gonzaga, which is very impressive, although Gonzaga is significantly down this year from previous seasons (they have 5 losses, including two nights ago to Santa Clara). Their last outing on the road came against a 7-10 SJSU team who is also 0-3 in conference play, and the Aztecs barely squeaked out a victory.
My biggest issue with SDSU, though, is their inconsistency. Although their record looks good on the surface, they actually SHOULD have 2 more losses on their record, to UC Irvine and UC San Diego. They squeaked out 1 point victories against both teams. They trailed in both games by 3+ with under a minute to play, and they had less than a 10% chance to win each game (they had a 1% chance to beat San Diego at one point late). Yet somehow they won both games. So just for sake of argument, if SDSU loses both of those games, this line is likely NM -6. To me that’s a good way to steal some value and I’ll take it.
Play #3: Texas A&M -2 vs. Kentucky
This is just a classic spot for A&M here → Kentucky comes into this game hot as an iron stove in a kitchen full of Italians, and A&M can’t buy a win as of late. It’s absolute desperation mode for the Aggies in this spot, and they get to do it at home against a young Kentucky team who has a lot of kids who have only seen this type of environment once or twice in their careers. Let’s look at A&M’s season though. This was a team that was ranked as high as #12 in the country early in the season. They battled through some injuries and despite a lack of health, they still entered conference play without a bad loss. They definitely would’ve liked to have won a few more games, but their 4 losses in the non-conference came against FAU on a neutral, at Virginia, vs. Memphis, and vs. Houston on a neutral (3 of those 4 ranked in the top 25 currently, the other right outside). They also had wins over Ohio State and SMU on the road, as well as Iowa State on a neutral. But that string of no bad losses ended last weekend when they were hammered by a bad LSU team at home by 15+ points. They followed it up with a loss at Auburn, and now here they sit, staring down the barrel of a possible 0-3 start to conference play. This is as MUST WIN of a game as it gets. And that’s why we see the 9-6 Ags laying 2 points against the #6 UK Wildcats coming in 12-2 (2-0, SEC).
Since losing at home to UNC Wilmington back in early December, the Wildcats have rattled off 7 in a row, including 2 straight to start conference play. This is no doubt one of the most talented teams Cal has had in his time at UK, and they no doubt will have a shot to make a real tourney run this year with their guard play. But as mentioned before this is just a horrific spot for them. Despite the improvements, this is still a very young team, and a team who did lose to UNC Wilmington at home a month and a half ago. I just think the environment, the desperation, and the situational spot are too much to overcome for the Wildcats. Give me the Aggies in a SEASON DEFINING Win at home.
Play #4: Notre Dame +1 vs. Florida State
This one is pretty simple. ND’s total resumé against Florida State’s total resumé is a no-brainer. FSU has the better wins, the better schedule, and they’ve obviously got the better record. However, FSU was just the beneficiary of a very weak start to conference play. They got to play 3 consecutive home ACC games in a row coming into this matchup, and all 3 were against unranked teams (GT, VT, & Wake). The game ag ainst GT is a game they absolutely should win at home. The game against VT is as well, yet they absolutely gave the game away late, giving VT a chance to actually win it, despite leading by 10 with under 2 minutes to play. Wake is the only really impressive win they have, but it plays to our advantage that it just happened. This is still a Seminoles team that lost to Lipscomb a few weeks ago.
Now they are traveling on the road to a Notre Dame team that, once again, in totality doesn’t look very good. But anyone who has watched them play as of late can see that they are playing MUCH better basketball. They are playing super hard, and they’ve got a really good Point Guard in Markus Burton, who can fill it up. ND finally got over the hump in their previous game with a big road win over GT in Overtime. But even before that, they played Duke as 14.5 point underdogs at home last Saturday, and they really gave the Blue Devils all they could handle. Duke was a missed 3 pointer or two away from losing that game outright to the Fighting Irish. I know that crowd is going to be outstanding, which will help. But also, I just don’t see how FSU scores in the half court here. Notre Dame is actually outstanding defending in the half court, they just struggled to score the ball. The only way FSU can score effectively here is if they turn ND over a ton. If they can’t do that, which will be harder to do with Burton handling the ball and ND being at home, I don’t see how the Seminoles win this one. Give me ND all day at home here in a great spot to get a win.
Play #5: Missouri -2 vs. South Carolina
I’m going to keep this one short and sweet, just like my handicap on this game was. Why? Because it’s pretty simple here. South Carolina has played 2 true road games this season thus far. They lost both. The first was early in the year at Clemson, which didn’t look bad until Clemson took a dive the past two weeks. They then went on the road for the second time this week and got absolutely pummeled by Bama by nearly 30. Now they have to go on the road to a desperate Missouri team who badly needs a conference win. They haven’t played great lately, but they still have some talent there, and they still have a great home court environment.
I’m taking Missouri in this one and I think they win it easily. This is a great spot for the Tigers against a team who struggles on the road in hostile environments.
Play #6: TCU +5 vs. Houston
The truth of the matter is I don’t think TCU is some outstanding team by any means. However, what I do know is they 100% should be 2-0 in conference. They were absolutely robbed in Lawerence against Kansas last Saturday. They had the ball and a 1 point lead with under a minute to play, after securing a defensive rebound. Kansas was going to have to decide whether to foul or play it out, and either way, TCU has a massive advantage late. However a video review by the officials determined there was a flagrant foul on TCU, giving Kansas 2 free throws and the ball back. So it went from TCU ball up 1 with 50 seconds left, to down by 3 next time they touched the ball. It was a disgusting way to end a basketball game and the officials should be ashamed of themselves.
That said, it’s good for us in the betting market, because this game should be closer to a pick ‘em. I’m not sure TCU wins this game outright, but they definitely have a shot. And catching 5 points at home in a conference game is a nice pillow to have.
Looking at Houston, this is a team that is simple to break down because they always do the same thing. They are always ELITE in three areas: Defensively, toughness, and on the offensive glass. They always struggle to score the ball at times, rely too much on their guards and 1v1 isolations, and they foul way too much due to their physicality and crashing the glass so hard. One thing I really like about this matchup is that Houston has played in a much weaker conference in the past 5 years (since they’ve become a powerhouse in cbb). However, now they have transitioned to the Big 12, and now they are playing a much different caliber of athlete on a given night. They don’t get to go on the road and play East Carolina anymore. Instead, coming off a tough loss to Iowa State on the road, now they travel to a very good TCU team. And I think it will be really interesting to see how they respond if TCU jumps on them early in a wild environment. I think it could easily go south for them quick, knowing that this team is just as talented as they are. TCU is also just as athletic as Houston, and that will play a role as well, as Houston won’t have a size, athletic, or speed advantage whatsoever.
We are definitely rolling with the Horned Frogs +5 here. I also think this game is going to go way under, only because both teams struggle mightily to score in the half court. But we’re not going to touch the total = give me the Horned Frogs, and we will call them a live dog because they are!!
Play #7: Richmond -3 vs. George Mason
It’s funny, because Richmond has become a staple for me during conference play the last few seasons. Why? Because they LOVE their Spiders down in Richmond, Virginia. That place sells out damn near every night, and it’s a very underrated home court advantage that few people know about. They pulled the upset as the home dog last week against St. Bonaventure as a 3 point dog. Now they are laying 3 at home against a very solid George Mason team.
The Spiders have won 5 in a row and they are off to a 2-0 start in conference play. This would be a huge win for them. I do think this game will be a battle until the end, but only laying 3 with this strong of a home court advantage where I see the two teams as pretty equal on a neutral floor. I’ll take the Spiders all day. Give me Richmond here
Quick Opinions: these are not official plays but things I put a few bucks on or liked on initial look:
Kansas -6 vs. OU
TTU -6 vs. K-State
Georgia +8 vs. Tennessee
Louisville +8 vs. NC State
Wake Forest -5 vs. Virginia
Santa Clara +5 vs. St. Mary’s
Southern Illinois +2.5 vs. Drake
VT -3 vs. Miami
Mississippi State -2 vs. Bama
WVU +6 vs. Texas
UNLV +2 vs. Utah State
→ Once again I would not play these for more than fun or a few bucks. The official 7 plays at the top are all 2 unit plays and they are solid plays, backed by significant research and statistical models. These 11 here are based on just one of these = either a good number in my model/power rankings, a good matchup, or a good spot
