College Basketball Best Bet (1/24/2024): Northwestern vs. Illinois, Back the Home Dog
Author: Dylan Lieck | January 24th, 2024 | 5:33 P.M. CST
College Basketball Best Bet Tonight: NW Wildcats
Official Pick: Northwestern +3 vs. Illinois
Units: 2
Summary: Look this one is simple, Northwestern has been a giant killer at home this season. They’ve already beaten #2 Purdue as a big underdog at home earlier this season. This is just a line we’re not going to get an opportunity a lot this season. Book have done a great job adjusting to home teams in college basketball the past few seasons, so a lot of times a team like NW is a short favorite in this spot. Working in our favor is the fact that Illinois has a few solid road victories this season. They also just got star Guard Terrance Shannon back last game. Shannon was accused of rape, but was granted a temporary stay to allow him to play while the case is being handled. Shannon came off the bench last game for the Fighting Illini in a 20+ point home win over Rutgers. He played 28 minutes. He had 16 points, although half of his points came from the free throw line. The problem is, this is a HUGE distraction, and that game came at home. How do Shannon and the team respond in a hostile environment with their star player having a rape allegation hanging over his head?
Secondly, Northwestern is inconsistent this season, but they’re really good when their on. When playing at their peak, they have the ability to play with anyone in the country, and we’ve seen that multiple times this season. As mentioned they beat Purdue earlier this year when the Boilermakers were ranked #1 in the land. The Wildcats are also undefeated at home in conference play so far this season. They are coming off a road loss to Nebraska, and the last two times they dropped a road game and followed it up with a home conference game, they won both times. On the other hand Illinois is just 2-2 on the road this season, and their road wins came against Michigan and Rutgers (the two teams tied for last place in the Big 10). Additionally, they are coming off playing both those teams in their last two contests, so this is a step up in class for the Fighting Illini. So this is a fantastic spot for the Northwestern Wildcats. That environment is going to be electric tonight, so let’s back Northwestern +3. If you want to sprinkle a little on the ML at +130 that isn’t a terrible idea either, but officially we’re grading at +3. Wildcats will pull off the big upset at home tonight and we will likely see a court storming.
Official Pick: NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS +3
