College Basketball Play of the Week (Paid Play)
Author: Dylan Lieck | February 12, 2024 | 5:17 P.M. CST
Note: If you are viewing this pick, you are a paid customer and I’d like to thank you for joining on. We lost on the Team Total with the Chiefs yesterday, HOWEVER we CASHED BIG on the Chiefs +250 live, when they were down 10-0. We also cashed on the Kyle Jusczyk over .5 recption, over 3.5 receiving yards, and Brandon Aiyuk Under 4.5 Receptions. We finished the night 4-1 with a 7.5 Unit Profit!! Congrats to all who followed, and I’ll continue to produce you guys winners over the long run!! Now let’s get to the play of the day.
Best Bet Monday: Texas Tech -2 vs. Kansas
Units: 3 (We are currently 3-0 on our 3 Unit Plays this year)
Summary: This line is completely off. It opened at -2, while a lot of places have gotten to -3 (I still like it at -3). First off, let’s start with the fact that Top 10 teams on the road this season against unranked opponents are currently winning outright at just a 43% rate (down 30% from the avg. the previous decade). That numbers is even worse in the Big 12. In the Big 12 Conference, UNRANKED TEAMS playing at home against a TOP 10 CONFERENCE OPPONENT are a staggering 8-3 straight up. If Tech pulls off the upset tonight, that would be a 75% win percentage for unranked teams in the Big 12 against Top 10 teams at home. So if you’re wondering why Tech is a 2-3 point favorite here, despite the fact that they are unranked and Kansas is ranked #6, that’s why. So just in terms of the spot, I love taking the home team in this spot. There is no doubt it’s going to be ROCKING tonight in Lubbock, and the Red Raiders will be very up for this game. They are going to get off to a hot start, and that place is going to be going bonkers. I also like that Tech hasn’t played great as of late. They haven’t shot it as well as they have on the season the past couple games, and I think they are due to break out here against a Kansas team that is short handed. We also have a Kanas team who is playing shorthanded (which I’ll get to in a second), and even when healthy this team has really struggled on the road in conference play. The Jayhawks are just 1-4 on the road in the Big 12 this season, and their lone win came against Oklahoma State, who is in last place in the conference with just a single conference victory. They have losses to Central Florida, West Virginia, and Kansas State, none of which are very good this year. The only road loss you can throw out is the Iowa State loss, as everyone tends to lose at Iowa State, and they are a very good basketball team. Then you have the Red Raiders playing at home in one of the better home court environments in the country (at least when the Red Raiders are good).
The Jayhawks come into this game with the best starting lineup in the country WHEN HEALTHY. The problem for them tonight, is they are NOT healthy. Kevin McCullers Jr. (KU’s leading scorer) will miss his second straight game with a shoulder injury, and that is a HUGE loss. McCullers didn’t play Saturday in the Jayhawks game against Baylor at home in Allen Fieldhouse, and the Bears nearly pulled off the upset in a place where NOBODY has won all season. Kansas pulled off a narrow 3-point victory over Baylor, but failed to cover as 5.5 point favorites. In addition to losing McCullers, towards the end of the game against Baylor Dajuan Harris, Kansas’ all-world PG, turned his ankle pretty bad. He did return to the game, but he was clearly hobbled. Bill Self came out and said that he thinks Harris is going to give it a go tonight, however there is no way he’s anywhere near 100% in this one. Now, injuries can be tough for any team to deal with, but they are especially tough for the Jayhawks, because of their lack of depth. As mentioned, they may have the best starting 5 in the country, but even when fully healthy they don’t have anyone off the bench who provides consistent play. Starting tonight in place of McCullers will likely be Nicolas Timberlake. Timberlake, a Towson University transfer, was expected to be a knockdown shooter for the Jayhawks, however he has really struggled so far this season (which caused him to lose most of his minutes in the rotation). He’s also a HUGE step down defensively. Late in the Baylor game he made a number of significant mistakes that led to Baylor getting two WIDE OPEN looks at threes to tie the game in the final seconds. But it’s not just Timberlake who’s struggled. The Jayhawks bench has been awful all season, and due to an illness to Jamari McDowell Kansas actually will only have 7 scholarship players available for them in this game. In addition to the healthy starters and Timberlake, that includes a true freshman who lost his starting spot early in the season, and Christian Braun’s younger brother who is clearly not ready to get minutes in meaningful college basketball games at this level.
Overall, I think this is one of the more mispriced games I’ve seen all season when you take into account spot, health, location, and rankings. Texas Tech would have a legitimate shot to win this game if the Jayhawks were completely healthy, so getting them at -2 (or -3) seems like an absolute steal. I LOVE this pick. It’s one of my favorite picks of the season, hence why it’s a paid, premium play. We’re going with a full 3 units on this one. For those who do not know, that is the second largest play I give out. And we are currently undefeated on our 3 unit plays this season. I have not given out a 4 unit play so this is the largest bet of the season (or tied for it). Let’s get our big time 3-unit wagers to 4-0 tonight with a Red Raider win in Lubbock!!
OFFICIAL PICK: Texas Tech -2 (play to -4) vs. Kansas
Update (February 13, 2024 @ 2:05 A.M. CST):
This play was released live to the public at 11 P.M. CST. Once again if you are NOT a paying customer, you will NOT receive my biggest plays. You will receive my free plays, which are still hitting at a very high rate and will turn profit in the long run. If you want access to my top plays and ALL my action hit me up on social media, email, or phone (I’ll include that info below). Follow me on TikTok or YouTube as well as sometimes I post my picks there (I just don’t say how many units on those videos to be fair to my paying customers). This play was an EASY winner and all my paying customers cashed their tickets. Congrats to all you guys who follow me and thanks for the support!!
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