Best Bet: Famous Idaho Potato Bowl (12/23/23)
Author: Dylan Lieck | Dec. 21, 2023 | 10:01 P.M. CST
As mentioned in the Bowl Picks Summary, make sure to understand that we do have an edge in these picks. And they are all things that I’ve bet myself. However, there is a significant amount of variance in these bowl games as it’s very difficult to measure motivation of different teams. There tend to be some bad beats each bowl season, as things can turn around in a hurry. All that said, let’s dive into this pick.
Game: Utah State Aggies (6-6) vs. Georgia State Panthers (6-6)
Date: 12/23/23
Time: 2:30 P.M. CST
Spread: Utah State -1
Location: Boise, Idaho
Weather (Predictive): 42 Degrees, Sunny
Pick: Utah State -1
Market Moves:
This line opened with Georgia State as a short favorite (GAST -2.5). We swung a full 5 points and got as high as Utah State -2.5. There was a lot of professional support for the Aggies here, but for some reason we’ve seen some buy back on Georgia State in the past 24 hours. The line moved back to Utah State -1. I’m not quite sure why the move all of the sudden, as there’s been no significant changes to either team, and there’s not really a great middle opportunity considering the line has never touched 3 either way. Regardless, I agree with the EARLY money on the Aggies, rather than the most recent move.
Matchup:
Neither Utah State nor Georgia State comes into this off great regular seasons, as both teams finished the season 6-6. However, one team clearly comes into this game playing much better football, and that is Utah State. The Aggies started off the season extremely poorly, which was expected, going 3-5 in their first 8 games. A lot of their roster from a good team in 2022 was depleted from the transfer portal and the expectations were not very high. However, the team rallied and finished winning 3 of their last 4 games to get bowl eligible. Oddly enough, the Aggies don’t have a bad loss on their schedule this season in terms of level of competition. All 6 of their losses came against teams who finished the season with winning records. The Aggies offense really got going in their last 4 games, scoring 32+ points in 3 of their last 4 games.
On the other side, Georgia State comes into this bowl matchup in extremely bad form. After a blistering start to the season (6-1 their first 7 games), they finished on a 5-game losing streak. 4 of those 5 losses came by 17 points or more, including 3 losses by 28+ points. The Panthers lone loss by less than 17 points in that stretch came in the final game of the season. In that game at Old Dominion, the Panthers led by 14 points going into the fourth quarter. They also led by 10 points with under 2 minutes to play, yet they inexplicably lost to the Monarchs on the final play of the game, 25-24. This team is on a completely different trajectory than their opponent, as they have been playing their worst football of the season as of late. You also have a situation in which Georgia State gave up AT LEAST 42 points in 4 of their final 5 contests (the lone game that didn’t they still gave up 25). Match that with a Utah State offense that has been scoring in the 30s and 40s most of the second half of the season, and that was against better competition than Georgia State. If this was the only thing to take into consideration, and both teams were at full strength, I’d still lean Utah State. But let’s take a look at the key departures.
Key Departures (Transfer Portal & Opt Outs):
Georgia State has been hit HARD by the transfer portal, and it has depleted their roster for this bowl matchup.
Georgia State:
RB Marcus Carroll: 274 Rush, 1,350 Yards, 13 TDs + 23 catches, 234 yards (7th in the nation in rush yards) - transferring to Missouri
GAST’s backup RB is also transferring, so they’ll be down to their 3rd string RB
WR1 Robert Lewis: 70 Catches, 877 Yards, 7 TDs (Leads Team in All 3 Categories) - Lewis is by far their best WR and he’s gone to Auburn
RT Montavious Cunningham: Their best offensive lineman hit the portal and is going to Virginia Tech
CB Bryquice Brown: 34 Tackles, 6 Pass Defenses, 1 INT (Led Team in Pass Defenses) - Brown is their best CB and he’s gone to Boston College
Utah State
S Devin Dye: 81 Tackles, 7 Pass Defenses, 2 INTs, 1 Fumble Recovery (Leads Team in Pass Defenses)
Notes: Notice that not only is Georgia State losing significant production from their team, but also the quality of schools those players are going to. All four of their major losses (RB, WR, RT, & CB) are going to Power 5 schools. Thus, the amount of talent being lost from Georgia State for this game is very significant. Also note that even with those quality players, this team struggled significantly down the stretch. Thus, it’s fair to question the ability of this Georgia State team to play well in this bowl game.
Utah State QB Situation:
Utah State loses only ONE key player from its roster to the transfer portal, and that’s their starting Safety. He’s a very good secondary piece, but compared to the losses for Georgia State, it’s really not close. You’re taking away their best 3 skill position guys, as well as the best Lineman on the offensive side of the ball. They didn’t lose much on defense, but their defense has been really bad this season, and losing their top CB won’t help.
The only reason this line isn’t bigger is because of the QB situation at Utah State. Both the starter & the backup are injured and won’t be playing in the bowl game for the Aggies, so 3rd string QB Levi Williams will get the start. However, if you are familiar with Williams, you’d know that he’s a solid QB. Williams started multiple games at Wyoming over the course of his career, and he has had success at times throughout his career. He started in this very Bowl Game a few years ago for Wyoming, a game in which he led the Cowboys to a Bowl Game victory while rushing for 3 TDs. He also started the final game of the season for the Aggies at New Mexico, a game where he led the Aggies to their 6th win of the season to get them bowl eligible. In that game, the Aggies offense put up 44 points (31 in regulation, 13 in the overtime periods. Williams was 16/27, threw for 198 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT. He also ran it 25 times for 153 yards and 3 TDs. That is the key element here: Levi Williams’ legs. He’s a very good runner & a true dual threat. That’s going to cause big problems for Georgia State, and I believe Williams will have a big time day on the ground.
Lastly, Williams has already announced that following this school year, he will be enlisting, attempting to join the Navy Seals, to serve his country. This kid is going to give everything he has in his final collegiate game after a 5 year career, and we KNOW that we’re going to get his best effort. Therefore, I really wouldn’t downgrade Utah State here at all for having a third string as their starter.
Location Advantage:
Of course Idaho is significantly closer to Utah than it is to Georgia, so the Aggies may have a few more fans there than the Panthers. However, I highly doubt there’s going to be any attendance records set in this bowl game. That said, the physical location is not the advantage that Utah State has in this one. Rather, it’s the color of the turf. Yup, you heard that right. This game is being played on Boise State’s homefield, home of the infamous blue turf. While it’s not a giant advantage, Utah State is familiar playing on this field, as they have faced Boise State in their home stadium on a usual basis (they are in the same conference). Georgia State on the other hand has never played on the blue turf, and it’s definitely possible that this could play a factor, especially early in the game. Again, I’m not saying that this is a massive factor in the handicap of this game, but it definitely is something to consider. And, when we are looking for edges wherever we can find them, they start to add up when you look at the entirety of the situation here. Less travel, likely more fans, and more familiarity with the environment equal all positive factors for Utah State.
Pick:
Overall, I love Utah State in this game. I think there is a ton of value still now that the line has shortened back to -1. I would play the Aggies all the way to -2.5. I truly thought the line would close closer to 3, but for some reason it’s gotten very short. I make this game Utah State -2 on a neutral field, with both teams fully healthy. With all the key departures for Georgia State and the lack of a downgrade for Utah State’s QB, I’ve adjusted my power ratings a full 2 points, leaving my number at Utah State -4. Therefore we’re happy to lay the 1 here. So sit back, enjoy watching the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl on that beautiful (but really disgusting) blue turf, and line your wallets with a few bucks at the end of the day. Best of luck and Merry Christmas!!
Official Pick: Utah State -1
