NFL Teaser of the Week
Author: Dylan Lieck | Dec. 28, 2023 | 5:25 P.M. CST
NFL Teaser of the week is going to be a Thursday game paired with a Sunday game. I think there’s some great value on some teaser legs this week.
NFL Teaser of the Week: Browns -1 to Chiefs -1
Leg 1: Cleveland Browns -1 vs. New York Jets
Summary: This is just a significantly superior team in the Cleveland Browns taking on a Jets team that has really struggled this season, especially offensively. The Jets OC Nathaniel Hackett I truly believe is the worst Offensive Coordinator in the history of the NFL. Pair him with Trevor Simien at QB and it’s an absolute disaster waiting to happen. The Jets offense looked good last week behind their one true weapon, Breece Hall. However, that game was a home game against a horrific Washington Commander’s Defense. I don’t see Hall doing that against a much superior Cleveland defense. Add to that the fact that the Browns “D” has been significantly better at home this season. The Jets will put together a few drives throughout the game, largely because the Browns are prone to giving up explosive plays. But, I just don’t see how the Jets have any sort of consistent success offensively.
Therefore, the only way this game is relatively close is the Jets defense. Flacco has been prone to interceptions since taking over as QB for the Browns, so there definitely could be some short fields for the Jets in this one. I actually think with both QBs prone to TO’s that there is likely to be more points than expected. That said, I wouldn’t trust either offense to just dominate the game.
Overall there’s a big coaching mismatch here, there’s a big talent gap here, and there’s a giant motivation discrepancy here. The Jets have no incentive to win this game, while the Browns are playing to lock up a playoff spot. They also have incentive to win in the sense that a win likely cements them as the #5 seed in the AFC, which is a huge advantage compared to the #6 seed. The #5 seed is likely to face the winner of the AFC South (Jags, Texans, or Colts), whereas the #6 seed is going to likely have to go to Kansas City in the first round. Although the Chiefs have struggled as of late, nobody is going to prefer playing in Arrowhead in January as opposed to Jacksonville, Houston, or Indi.
Give me the Browns in this teaser leg. I don’t think it’s particularly close, but if it is, they should pull out the outright victory either way.
Leg 2: Kansas City Chiefs -1. vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Summary:
Once again we have a big mismatch in terms of talent. Yes, the Chiefs have struggled offensively as of late, and I don’t see them as the same team as years past. However, this is a GREAT get right spot for that offense. The Bengals are bottom 10 in the NFL in almost every significant defensive statistic. They’re horrible against both the run and the pass, their bottom 10 in EPA, Success Rate allowed, yards per play, yards per game, and points per game. They also don’t have anyone in the secondary who will be able to take away Travis Kelce. With how it’s gone for Kelce and Mahomes the last few weeks, I’d be very surprised if they didn’t both have HUGE games against this much maligned Bengals defense. Last week, the Pittsburgh Steelers were down to a third string QB in Mason Rudolph when playing the Bengals. That defense allowed George Pickens to go for nearly 200 yards and 2 TDs. Isaiah Paceko is currently questionable, but he tends to fight through minor injuries and play whenever possible. If he goes, which I think he will, he is in line for a big day as well. There should be plenty of points coming for this Chiefs offense.
On the other side of the ball, the Chiefs Defense is one thing that’s much improved for this team. They have been outstanding this season, and this is by far the best defense Kansas City has had in the Mahomes era. The Bengals on the other hand, have definitely looked better than expected since Joe Burrow’s season came to an end with a wrist injury. However, large portions of the Bengals offensive success have come in two areas: in home games, and against bad defenses. This matchup features neither of the two, as the Bengals are facing a top 10 defense on the road.. Last week on the road against a defense that is not nearly as good as the Chiefs (the Steelers), Browning really struggled, throwing three interceptions. The Bengals were never in the game, they struggled to protect Browning, and when they did have any sort of offensive success, they stalled inside the 10 yard line. I’d be very surprised if the Bengals have any sort of consistent success on the offensively here.
Overall this is an easy teaser leg for me. The Chiefs need this win big time. They don’t lose back to back games often, and they have been historically really good at home in this time of the year. They have a home game here against an inferior opponent. Look for them to bounce back in a big way in this spot. Give me the Chiefs here BIG.
OFFICIAL PICK: 2 Team 6 Point Teaser: Cleveland Browns -1 | Kansas City Chiefs -1
Units: 2 Units
