Best Bet: Armed Forces Bowl (12/23/23)
Author: Dylan Lieck | Dec. 22, 2023 | 3:21 A.M. CST
Armed Forces Bowl
Game: James Madison Dukes (11-1) vs. Air Force Falcons (8-4)
Date: 12/23/23
Time: 2:30 P.M. CST
Spread: James Madison -2
Location: Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, Texas
Weather (Predictive): 62 Degrees, Sunny
Pick: Air Force +2
Market Movement:
There has been significant sharp money on Air Force, however that money did come in mostly at a bigger number. The line opened with James Madison a 4.5 point favorite. A clear signal of the sharp money on Air Force is the line movement through the key number of 3. So we saw professionals hit this game at +4.5, +4, +3.5, +3, and now even some support under a field goal. Some of the sharper shops are currently trending towards 1.5. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this line close closer to a Pick ‘Em.
Matchup:
If you were to look at this game from a pure matchup standpoint, I actually would give the edge to James Madison. They’ve been elite this season defensively, especially up front where they really force teams out of their running game. That would not bode well for Air Force, as the Falcons obviously run the triple option. Luckily for Air Force, this game is not purely about the matchups, but rather about the key players that possibly could miss the game for JMU.
Coaching Departures for James Madison:
Head Coach Curt Cignetti departs James Madison for Indiana, which is a great hire for the Hoosiers as Tom Allen departs. Cignetti is not the only coach to leave, though, as he is taking a good portion of the staff with him. That includes the Offensive Coordinator, the Defensive Coordinator, and the QB Coach. In fact, James Madison is so short handed from the coaching departures that they had to hire 5 temporary coaches just to coach the bowl game. The Offensive Line coach will be the acting head coach for this matchup.
This is a huge issue for James Madison in this one, and it’s significant to the handicap. You have a team who accomplished a lot this year, but they didn’t get to play for their conference championship, which was the ultimate goal for this team. Despite being able to finish 11-1, they didn’t get to play for a New Years Six Bowl. Now they have to get up to take on a super boring Air Force team in the Armed Forces Bowl? Add to that the fact that they have a makeshift coaching staff with a head coach who’s never led a team before. It’s a terrible spot for JMU
Key Departures (Transfer Portal & Opt Outs)
James Madison:
Offense: Starting QB, Starting RB, Best WR, Starting LT
Defense: Two Starting LBs, Two Starting Defensive Lineman, Starting CB
The number of guys leaving JMU is staggering, but it’s to be expected with the departure of the coach as well as the success of this team this season
The one thing to keep an eye on for this game: A lot of the guys who are entering the portal are claiming they are still going to play in the bowl game. The problem with this for JMU is that it’s really hard to believe those guys are going to be motivated to go all out here. It’s a meaningless, shitty bowl game. I just don’t see those guys risking injury and their shot at playing a big time school in order to win the Armed Forces Bowl. Therefore, even if these guys do play, I still think the fact that they are departing and currently looking for other schools makes me believe that they will not be 100% focused on winning this game
Air Force:
Air Force’s Starting RB is the only key departure for the Falcons. That is to be expected, as the service academies often don’t have the same issues with losing players to the portal that other schools have
Zach Larrier:
A very important aspect of this game is the fact that Air Force is set to get their starting QB, Zach Larrier, back for this bowl game. Larrier was outstanding this season, and he actually gave Air Force a legitimate passing threat (something they are not used to having). Larrier suffered multiple injuries towards the end of the season, and that was a large reason for Air Force’s struggles down the stretch. In games that Larrier started and finished, the Falcons lost just one game this season. Without Larrier in the lineup, the Falcons looked like a very subpar team.
He’s massive to their success, and getting him back could legitimately be the difference between a win and loss here. I do think he will hit some big explosives in the pass game against a JMU defense that will very likely be selling out against the run.
Buy Low Spot:
The last important point I’ll make for this game is that this is perfect buy low spot on Air Force. This is a team that started the season 8-0 and was ranked in the top 25. Not only were the playing great on the offensive side, but the defense was outstanding through the first 8 games. Once Larrier went down, though, both sides of the ball dropped off. Likely partially because without Larrier, the offensive drives were much shorter, and therefore the defense was on the field much more.
Overall though, this is the absolute bottom of the barrel in terms of price for Air Force. I mean, what is this line after Air Force starts 8-0? I can tell you that JMU is absolutely not favored.
Service Academies In Bowl Games:
In the recent past, service academies have been outstanding in Bowl games, both straight up and against the spread. Why? Because in a day and age where motivation is a question mark for some of these teams (with so many guys hitting the transfer portal), you never have to worry about the focus or effort of a service academy. Air Force themselves has won and covered 4 of their last 5 bowl games. Army has won 4 bowl games in a row straight up. And, Navy has covered 5 of their last 6 bowl game appearances. Clearly the service academies have a good track record in modern day bowl games, and it’s no different in this one.
Pick:
I think Air Force, when healthy, is the better team. Add to that the bandaid coaching staff and a boatload of players set to leave JMU following the bowl game and you have a line that is a bit off, given the return of the Falcon’s top QB. Thus, we’re getting an absolutely awesome price here with them sitting as two point dogs. I really would’ve loved this pick if we could’ve gotten +3 earlier this month, but that is obviously long gone. I still think there is value on the Falcons as a short dog, So give me Air Force plus the points in this spot. I would play them up to a Pick "‘Em.
Official Pick: Air Force +2
