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College Basketball Updated Record + CBB Betting Tips
Author: Dylan Lieck | December 16th, 2023 | 10:55 P.M. CST
We’ve had a fantastic start to the season in college basketball. Good day yesterday going 1-0-1 in college basketball, and we also hit on our NFL play with the Lions -4.5. Had a rough push on the Memphis Tigers -2 due to some missed free throws late, but I’m not going to ever complain about a 2-0 day. I would say this is an unusual start, but in all honesty, I picked at over 70% last year in college basketball REGULAR SEASON. I did not do nearly as well in the conference tournaments nor the NCAA tournament. I’ve come to learn lately that the post season tournaments are becoming more and more unpredictable. My goal this season will be to make as much profit as possible in the regular season, and then pick my spots in the post season on some really good positions.
Season Summary As of December 16th, 2023
Overall College Basketball Record: 15-4 (78.9%, +21.2 Units) | Parlays = +15.0 Units
Last weekend in college basketball I went 4-4 on Saturday, however I hit a 3-team moneyline parlay that paid 15 to 1. Overall College Record thus far on straight bets is 15-4. Add those two together and you have a +36.2 unit start to the season if you have followed all my plays.
As of right now all my plays are free, so enjoy them. However, if you are making money on my plays and you’d like to tip me, my venmo is: @dylanlieck
Understand that at some point in the future my plays will cost money, but for now you can enjoy the for free, and hopefully make money.
College Basketball Tips For December/Early January:
Because my goal is to help people improve their sportsbetting I just wanted to provide a few tips for betting college basketball the rest of the season. Today’s tip is going to be regarding betting these games in the middle of December and into January. Normally I would say 90-95% of my bets in college basketball focus on finding value in home teams. Home court value in college basketball is under rated by the market, and still has yet to adjust. It’s the most valuable advantage to a point spread in any sport. The only time I like betting road teams, is when the market has significantly over valued a team and you can just get massive value in the spread on the road OR if you have a very senior laden team playing in locations that they are very familiar. For example, if a Big 10 Team has 3 senior starters who have been at the same school all 4 years and they’ve played in that road environment 3 times previous years and had previous success.
Overall though, I rarely take road teams. However, if you noticed I only took 2 games today, whereas last Saturday I took 8 games. Why? One BIG reason is because when you hit this time in December, you get a lot of student fan bases who are not going to these games, because they go home for the Holidays. So it’s vitally important to understand that home court could matter LESS in this stretch of games with 70% of students gone. Now that’s not the case for all schools. For example, today I took two teams at home (Michigan State and Memphis), both of which tend to sell out their arenas regardless of time of the year. One good thing to do, is to check attendance at home games for that team in previous years during mid to late December. Michigan State and Memphis both tend to have GREAT homecourt advantages regardless of time of year. So both of those were play ons for me. But, some schools have attendance that significantly declines during this time (for example; Florida State yesterday).
Overall, it’s just another important factor to look at. You always want to be looking for an edge, and for things to help you be better and sports betting, as opposed to betting games blindly with less information. Good luck to everyone this Holiday season, and check back soon for my other NFL Picks (we are already 1-0 this weekend!!)
College Basketball & NFL Picks (12/16/23)
Author: Dylan Lieck | Dec. 16th, 2023 | 12:18:19 P.M. CST
Apologies for the late post, but none of these games will start for at least 45 minutes. Let’s start with college hoops.
There’s a ton of games today but not a ton I absolutely love. There are 2 plays that I do like quite a bit. I’m not going to give too long of an explanation due to lack of time
CBB Picks:
1) Michigan State +3 vs. Baylor (2U)
2) Memphis -2 vs. Clemson (2U)
NFL Picks:
Detroit Lions -4.5 vs. Denver Broncos (1U)
NFL Best Bets (12/10/23)
Author: Dylan Lieck | Dec. 10th, 2023 | 10:38 A.M. CST
Here are my best bets for the NFL Sunday Slate for week 14. Enjoy!!
NFL Best Bet (Straight Bet): Chicago Bears +3.5 vs. Detroit Lions
I got this at 3.5 - A lot of books are trending to +3. If you see +3 I would buy the half a point if you can get it for -120
There is great value here at home. The Bears had the Lions beat a few weeks ago indoors on the road. This one is at home, with windy Conditions. Jared Goff is horrible in weather. Also Justin Fields and Matt Eberflaus are both playing and coaching for their jobs. This is an easy value pick here. Bears +3.5
Units = 2 Units
NFL Best Bet #2 (Total): Cincinnati Bengals vs. Indianapolis Colts OVER 44
This total is WAY too low for two of the leagues worst defenses
Browning looked great last week, he will have tons of success against a porous Colts D and Minshew will be able to do just enough to keep this in range and keep the scoring going
Units = 2 Units
NFL Best 2-Team 6-Point Teaser: Ravens -1.5 to Bills +7.5
Ravens are one of the sharpest teaser legs of the week - love getting them through the 7 and 3
Bills above a TD has tons of value against a struggling KC Offense Give me this teaser = easily
Units = 2 Units
NFL Moneyline Dog Parlay of the Week:
Chicago Bears +160
New York Jets +155
Denver Broncos +125
This pays about 15 to 1 depending on where you shop your lines
College Basketball Best Bets (12/9/23)
Author: Dylan Lieck | Dec. 8th, 2023 | 11:44 P.M. CST
No long breakdowns for these games but a TON of great spots to take some home teams this Saturday in CBB. Here are some best bets for you
OFFICIAL College Basketball Bets Saturday:
9 Total Plays:
Georgetown +1.5 vs. Syracuse
Xavier +1.5 vs. Cincinnati
Liberty -4 vs. Grand Canyon
Utah +4 vs. BYU
LSU PK vs. Kansas State
Bama +6 vs. Purdue
Seton Hall -3 vs. Rutgers
Washington +4.5 vs. Gonzaga
Penn State +5 vs. Ohio State
All Plays = 1 Unit (Risk 1.1 to win 1.0 at -110 Juice)
As always play responsibly and get the best number
Fun little parlay: Washington, Penn State, Utah all moneyline in a parlay pays 15 to 1
Here are some leans (I did NOT play these, but just opinions or plays I considered, but ultimately passed on):
OU -3.5
Colorado State -5
Old Dominion +6.5
UNLV -1.5
Wyoming +1.5
East Carolina +5.5
Arizona -8.5
Villanova -5
Again I WOULD NOT bet these games - just some ones to monitor. They did NOT meet the criteria for placing a wager, whereas the 9 plays at the top of this did. I would say the strongest of these would probably be Colorado State. They were the closest to making my list.
College Basketball Best Bets (12/5/23)
Author: Dylan Lieck | Dec. 5th, 2023 | 3:18 P.M. CST
Here are some of my favorite plays for tonight’s slate of College Hoops Games.
Michigan State -4.5 vs. Wisconsin = 2 Units
Grand Canyon +2.5 vs. SDSU = 2 Units
Illinois +2.5 vs. FAU = 2 Units
UCONN -5.5 vs. UNC = 2 Units
Southern Illinois +1.5 vs. Oki State = 2 Units
Villanova -2. @ K-State = 1 Unit
BEST OF LUCK TONIGHT!!
College Basketball Best Bets (12/1/23)
Author: Dylan Lieck | 12/1/23 | 1:15 P.M. CST
We’ve been SMOKING hot to start the season in college basketball, and there’s two games I have my eye on here. I’m not going to give as in depth of a break down on these, but I have already played both myself, and I like both plays.
Best Bet of the Night:
Game: Purdue @ Northwestern
Line: Purdue -5.5
Total: 135.5
Location: Welsh-Ryan Arena (NW Home Court)
Time: 8:00 P.M. CST
Dylan’s Pick: Northwestern +5.5
Summary:
Look we’re just going to continue to play home teams all season. When teams go on the road, regardless of when it is, but ESPECIALLY in conference play, it’s extremely tough to win. It’s even harder to cover. So we’re going to traditionally take 95% of our plays on true home teams between +7 and -5. You’re getting Purdue at a highly inflated price, as they are currently 7-0. Northwestern has plenty of talent. And although their football team has no home field advantage, their gym can get quite wild. It’s going to be ROCKING tonight. Give me NW +5.5 all day
Official Pick: NW +5.5
Best Bet 2
Game: UCONN @ Kansas
Line: Kansas -3
Location: Alan Field House (KU Home Arena)
Time: 8:00 P.M. CST
Dylan’s Pick: Kansas -3
Summary:
Look once again, we’re getting a UCONN team who’s probably slightly better than Kansas on a neutral floor at -3. But we’re getting this when UCONN is missing one of their top freshman guards. And they’re playing their first true road game of the season at Alan Fieldhouse, one of the toughest places to play in the country. This is a much bigger game for Kansas, who got smacked by Marquette in Maui last time they played a top 10 team. So I’m sure Bill Self is going to have his guys ready to go. You also have a young KU team who is only getting better game to game. And as much as I can’t stand Kevin McCullers, he is playing some very good basketball.
Triston Newton, The PG for UCONN is the only way Kansas doesn’t win this game and cover. He’s a stud and he has the capability of dropping 30-40 on any given night. But Kansas at home, in front of that crowd, against UCONN in their first true road game? I’ll take KU -3.
Official Pick: KU -3
College Football Best Bet: Conference Title Games
Author: Dylan Lieck | 11/30/23 | 3:33 P.M. CST
College Football Best Bet: Conference Title Games
Game: Alabama vs. Georgia (SEC TITLE)
Line: Georgia -6 (Opened -4)
Total: 53
Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA (Neutral)
Date: 12/2/23
Time: 3:00 P.M. CST
Official Pick: UNDER 53 (Play to 54.5)
Summary:
The reason I say play to 54.5 is because 52 is a very key number for totals in CFB, so if you are taking anything above 52 points, you are already through that key number of 52, then just take it at anything less than 3 points higher. Meaning 52.5-54.5 are pretty much the same number (not exactly but generally speaking 52 and 55 are more key than those in between it).
Overall I just think the market has reacted poorly to this game. Usually you will see me align my picks with the market 95%+ of the time. But I liked this when I saw the number open 56. I really thought it would get bet up higher than that, and yet it started to come down. I wanted to see how low it could get. I saw a 52.5 before buy back happened and I got in at 53. I think we sit 53.5 or 54 in most spots. Anyways, all of those numbers are WAY too low. Look these two offenses have been playing really good football, and neither defense has been close to the traditional Bama/Georgia games. This WILL be a high scoring game, you can bet on it, LITERALLY.
I know Bama squeaked by Auburn last week and didn’t look great offensively, but Auburn had been prepping for that game for 2 weeks straight. I think what Georgia will do is try to make Milroe beat them with his arm. However, as inaccurate as he is in the intermediate game, he’s gotten a lot better in the short and deep areas of the field. I’d be shocked to see him not have some success against a subpar Georgia defense. Georgia’s offense on the other hand, may be the best it’s been in years. They’ve been explosive throughout the season, going over 70% of their totals. I don’t see that changing here. Bama’s defense has been nothing to write home about. We saw Auburn have tons of success on the ground last week with a QB who literally cannot throw the ball. I think Georgia is going to have an absolute field day offensively. If you can get their point total at anything below 30.5 I think their team total is going to be somewhere in the 35-42 range. I do like Georgia to cover here, but I bet that at -4 early in the week and that number has gotten away from us. Let’s go with the total here. It’s going to be a shootout. So give me the OVER here and let’s cash one more ticket on this CFB season to go out with a bang, and another WINNING YEAR!!
Dylan’s Pick: Alabama vs. Georgia OVER 53 (play to 54.5)
NFL Teaser of the Week
Author: Dylan Lieck | 11/30/23 | 3:27 P.M. CST
NFL Teaser of the Week (Week 13)
Official 2-Team 6-Point Teaser Pick: Dallas Cowboys -3 to Jacksonville Jaguars -2.5
Summary:
Look this is a value bet here - both these teams are taking significant sharp money in the market at their actual spread numbers. Dallas opened as a 6 point favorite in some shops and they’ve been bet all the way up to 9. I obviously would prefer to get them to -2.5 through the key number of 3, but we’re okay at -3 (nothing higher). The Cowboys have been rolling at home and the Seahawks have struggled anytime they’ve stepped up in class this season. This is an easy teaser leg for me to play in this spot. Especially since it’s not really a short week for Dallas considering they played last Thursday.
On the other side we have the Jags. Yes they are coming off a big win that could lead to a little bit of a let down spot here. But I just don’t see it against this Cincinnati team on the road in a big game for the Jags. The Jags are actually tied in the loss column for that 1 seed in the AFC so they have a ton to play for. The Bengals are just a trainwreck here. They have no incentive to win anymore. They aren’t going anywhere this season, and they shouldn’t be attempting to. They should be tanking and hoping for the highest possible draft pick to help their HORRIFIC secondary. They have one of the worst defenses in football, and nobody talks about it. They’re the 2nd worst in yards per play allowed, and they have given up loads of explosive plays this season. The Jags offense is getting healthier and they will have a field day at home against a BAD Cinci defense, with no incentive to improve this season. Give me Jacksonville under a field goal all day.
Dylan’s Pick: 2-Team Teaser: Cowboys -3 to Jags -2.5
Love this play. Let’s make it a 3 UNIT play ONLY if you can get Dallas -2.5 or better. If you get Dallas at -3 then 2 units.
College Basketball Best Bet 11/30/23
Author: Dylan Lieck | 11/30/23 | 3:07 P.M. CST
There’s a great spot for ONE college basketball play tonight.
Best Bet #1
Game: Texas Tech @ Butler
Line: Butler -1.5
Total: 138.5
Location: Heinckle Field House (Butler Home Arena)
Time: 5:30 PM | Broadcast: Fox Sports 1
Pick: Butler -1 (play to -2 or -130 ML)
Summary:
Once again we are going with a home team in this spot. Full disclosure, a lot of books are already moving this line. I’ve seen a -1 out there still (what I got it at) but a lot of places have moved it a full point to -2. I still like it at -2. Anything over -2, you may want to look to the Moneyline, but it’s probably okay at -2.5.
Overall, this is a combination of a few things. Obviously home court advantage is the biggest. I don’t think there’s really very big of a gap between these two teams. It’s definitely harder to tell early in the year at this point, however from the data points I have, and from the numbers, I don’t see that big of a difference between the two teams. Butler comes into the game 5-2, while Tech comes in 5-1. Butler’s 2 losses came at Michigan State (who is still a top 15 team in the country in my Power Ratings), and on a neutral floor to FAU (possibly a top 10 team). Butler also covered the spread against FAU, losing by just 5 (86-91). However, Tech’s lone loss came against Villanova. I know Nova just ran through the battle for Atlantis field, but let’s be honest that field was extremely underwhelming. Nova is also insanely inconsistent. They’ve beaten 3 good power 5 teams, and lost to Penn University and St. Joes. So I don’t even have Nova in my top 25 power rankings currently.
The one data point that really make me lean Butler, though, is actually a Texas Tech win. I watched Tech play a 2-5 Northern Iowa team in the Battle for Atlantis, and it basically took a MIRACLE comeback for them to squeak out a 2 point victory. They looked awful, especially defensively in the game. That is a Northern Iowa team with losses to North Texas, and a 20-point home loss to Belmont. Tech should’ve lost that game (they trailed by 15 with 7 minutes to play). Oddsmakers are overreacting to the Red Raiders blowout win over Michigan. A Michigan team that is nowhere near what it’s been in years past (in fact it’s the worst Michigan team I’ve seen in 2 decades).
Butler is the better shooting team overall, as they shoot nearly 8% better eFG%-wise compared to Texas Tech. They share the ball better, averaging 3 more assists per game. And all the while they have played the tougher schedule? Yeah give me Butler all day here.
Dylan’s Pick: Butler -1 (play to -2)
College Basketball Best Bets 11/29/23
Author: Dylan Lieck | 11/29/23 | 11:53 A.M.
It’s a Wednesday afternoon, and there are some quality college hoops games on the betting slate tonight. With no football on, let’s dive into some best bets for tonights games.
Game 1: Arkansas vs. Duke
Line: Duke -4.5
Total: 148.5
Dylan’s Pick: Arkansas +4.5
Summary:
Look if you have never followed my picks or if you just don’t watch a ton of college basketball, the NUMBER ONE thing that will help you improve your handicapping in College Basketball is HOME COURT ADVANTAGE. College Basketball is BY FAR the sport where Home Court advantage plays a huge roll. Basketball is already a game of momentum, and when you have a ruckus crowd behind you, with a lot of 18-20 year old kids playing in a basketball game, things can get pretty wild. So if you’re going to be following my picks this year, one important thing to know is you almost will never see me taking a road team. Especially not when we get to conference.
Here we are going to take a team in a non-conference game in the Arkansas Razorbacks. This is an Arkansas team that comes into this game on a 2-game losing streak, while dropping 3 of their last 4 games. One of those losses came to an unranked UNC Greensboro team, and the other two came at the tournament over Thanksgiving called Battle for Atlantis. So we are getting the Razorbacks here at an absolute dirt cheap price. What I mean by that is if you look at these two teams on paper, even without Tramon Mark in the lineup, you are probably making this game Duke -2.5 on a neutral floor. But because UNCG beat them, and because it’s only the first game Mark isn’t playing, this line is highly inflated. You are going to have the public ALL OVER Duke in this spot, only laying 4.5 points against a bad Arkansas team. I LOVE that we’re getting 4.5, because I think we can win this game outright. I thought we’d be laying 1.5 or 2 to be honest.
Looking at the matchup here, the key is that obviously you have Duke playing it’s first TRUE road game of the season. They come into this game 5-1, with their lone loss at home to #12 Arizona. They did beat Michigan State in the State Farm Championship Classic on a neutral floor, but again that was not a TRUE road game. This is the first time they will be going into a hostile environment, and if you aren’t familiar with Bud Walton Arena, it’s an incredibly tough place to go in and win. Especially if you are not familiar with playing there (which Duke is not). That alone is enough for me to back Arkansas in this spot. But let’s throw in one more for good measure.
The last thing I love is just the mismatch athletically in this one. Duke has traditionally struggled with athleticism the last year and change under new HC John Scheyer. We saw it a couple times early in the regular season last year. And then we saw it when Duke got absolutely SMACKED by a LESS talented Tennessee team last year. Why? Because Tennessee was more athletic, bigger, and stronger. You can only do so much with skill. The funny thing is I actually don’t even think Duke is all that much more skilled than Arkansas. Maybe a little bit, but it isn’t much.
Official Pick: ARKANSAS +4.5 (Sprinkle some on Arkansas +150)
So we have a massive advantage athletically, and maybe a slight disadvantage talent wise, but it’s going to be negated by the home court factor? Yeah give me the Razorbacks in this one ALL DAY. This is the type of game I LOVE to bet the home dog in. We don’t get this big of a number that often anymore. Usually Arkansas is like -2 in this spot, so I’m going to jump on the value with a max bet on this one. Give me Arkansas +4.5 and do yourself a favor and sprinkle half a unit on them Moneyline. I’d be surprised if they don’t win this one outright.
Game 2: Texas A&M @ Virginia
Line: Virginia -2.5
Total: 125.5
Dylan’s Pick: Virginia -2.5
Summary:
Essentially this pick is based on two things. Number one is market perception, and number two is health of the two teams. First off let’s look at the market. Virginia has NOT impressed anyone early in the season. They are currently sitting at 4-1 going into this game, with their best win coming over a very athletic Florida Gators team 73-70 on a neutral floor. In that game against the Gators the Hoos actually shot 39% from the 3-point line & 50.9% eFG%. I think anyone who has watched a Virginia game over the past half decade (Post-National Title) would take those numbers offensively. Virginia has been far from an offensive juggernaut in the Tony Bennett era.
All that said, I watched the Hoos play Wisconsin on a neutral floor in Florida not too long after the win over the Gators, and man was it ugly. I honestly think Virginia set offense in the game of basketball back 50 years, as they were absolutely AWFUL. They lost by 24 points to the Badgers and put up just 41 points offensively the entire game, which included a first half of less than 20 points scored. Against Wisconsin in that game UVA shot an abysmal 32% from the field & 29% from three. But we’ve seen Virginia play that way and be highly competitive in years past. How? Their defense. They’re pack-line defense has ALWAYS been a staple of that team, and it’s something that most teams really struggle with, especially non-conference teams that have not seen it much before playing UVA. The shocking thing to me about that game against Wisconsin was how BAD UVA’s defense was. They allowed the Badgers to score 1.33 Points Per Possession (which is absurdly high for any team in CBB, let alone against UVA’s Defense). They posted an eFG% above 50% and shot nearly 45% from beyond the arc. All of these numbers are abnormal for Virginia to allow defensively.
The Hoos did follow up that performance with another bad offensive outing against West Virginia, in a game that they could’ve EASILY lost, but managed to escape 56-54. Here’s the main thing though. Those games in which Virginia looked AWFUL all came 7 or more days ago. They faced that Wisconsin team last Tuesday, and followed it up playing WVU Wednesday. What does that mean? Well it means Tony Bennett has had a full week to break down the film, get back to focusing on all the little things, and you better believe he’s going to have his team ready DEFENSIVELY for this matchup with the Aggies.
Now I’m not saying that Virginia is going to miraculously come out lighting it up from beyond the arc, dropping 70+ points. I’d be SHOCKED if we saw that. But I do believe they’re going to really muck up this game. It’s going to be played at a SNAILS Pace, as we will see lots of late shot clock possessions from the Hoos. Also expect Virginia to be much better on the glass. Against the Badgers of Wisconsin, UVA allowed TWENTY Offensive Rebounds. Yup, you heard that right: TWO, ZERO. There’s almost zero chance the Aggies have over 10 tonight. You can bet that was a point of emphasis along with their defensive principles the last week of practice with Bennett and his staff.
I’ll get to A&M’s health in a minute, but I do want to say in terms of the Aggies, I think when they are healthy, they have potential to be a really good team come March, and they’ll have a shot to make a deep tourney run with their guards. However, they are not healthy (keep reading below). But more than that, I do not like how their defense is trending. Against FAU, who is a good team but not an EXPLOSIVE team offensively, they allowed 96 points. And it wasn’t just one bad half, it was 46 in the 1H and 50 in the 2H. They were absolutely exposed. They followed that up allowing an Iowa State team, who’s got one of the more poor offenses, to score 70 points on them. They’ve allowed over 1 point per possession in 5 games this season, and they have really struggled staying in front of guys (hence why they tend to play 1-2-2 pressure to shorten possessions). I HATE how A&M’s defense is trending, and I like that UVA has had a week off. The spot is great for UVA here.
A&M’s Health:
A&M’s second best overall player, and second leading scorer, Tyrece Radford is out tonight. He missed the second half of the game in a loss to FAU last week, and then sat out of their previous game against Iowa State. A&M is just a different team with Radford out of the lineup. He’s an absolute monster attacking the rim, and he’s a really tough kid. He’s not only their leader, but he provides another element beyond just Wade Taylor shooting 3s and floaters. He gets all the way to the rim with physicality and gets to the FT line more than any other guard in the country. This team just is not the same without those two guys together in the lineup. We saw that against FAU in the second half. We saw it against Iowa State. And we’re going to see it tonight.
Official Pick: VIRGINIA -2.5
Last thing, this is A&M’s second true road game, but it’s the first one in which some of these guys will play major, meaningful minutes with Radford out. I think this is going to be a very low scoring game, and I’d lean strongly to the UNDER as well, but let’s go with the Hoos on the side here. Give me Virginia -2.5 for my 2nd BEST BET of the night.
Game 3: Colorado State vs. Colorado
Line: CSU -3.5
Total: 149.5
Dylan’s Pick: Colorado State -3.5
Summary:
Overall I just love the spot here for Colorado State. They are coming off a HUGE win for their program against Creighton, and now they are at home against their rival. I don’t think this is a let down spot at all. This is a chance for them to beat Colorado, which they haven’t done in a LONG time. They are going to be super up for this one.
If you haven’t had a chance to watch the PG for CSU play (Isaiah Stevens) you are in for a TREAT. The kid is arguably the best PG in the country. I think he is going to have a big game tonight (not a bold prediction - he always plays well). I love CSU in this spot against a very streaky Colorado team. Colorado is for sure a tourney team and they have a really good guard in KJ Simpson, but give me CSU at home in a big game for their program only laying 3.5
Official Pick: CSU -3.5
Best Bets No. 1 = 3 Unit MAX Bet
Best Bet No. 2 = 2 Unit Bet
Best Bet No. 3 = 1 Unit Bet
College Basketball Best Bet: Maui Invitational Day 2 (11/21/23)
Game: #4 Marquette Golden Eagles vs. Kansas Jayhawks
Line: Kansas -3.5 | Total: 156.5
Pick: Marquette +3.5 AND Moneyline +140
Matchup:
The nightcap of the first day of the Maui Invitational was by far the best game of the day, with Marquette narrowly escaping a VERY good UCLA team, 71-69. UCLA guard Sebastian Mack had a contested, off-balance layup attempt at the buzzer that fell just short, allowing Marquette to advance to face the number 1 team in the country, the Kansas Jayhawks, in the Maui Invitational Semis. The Jayhawks on the other hand, got a de-facto bye, facing the lone Division 2 team in Chaminade (host school), a game where the Jayhawks dominated from start to finish.
Pick: Look Kansas is a very good team, and they will likely be right there to win the Big 12 as they always are. They will very likely be there deep in the NCAA Tourney. Bill Self ALWAYS gets his teams playing well at the right time. Unfortunately for the Jayhawks, they won’t be ranked #1 after this tournament end: the team likely to be ranked #1 is going to be the Marquette Golden Eagles, as I believe they are going to win this tournament.
I was on the Jayhawks when they faced off against Kentucky early in the year in the Champions Classic. I took the Jayhawks live at +120 when they were down late in the first half, as I thought they had a good shot to comeback against a Kentucky team playing way better than they actually were that first half. That said, I got to see the Jayhawks play a full game against a quality opponent in that one. And what I realized is this is a team that is NOT DEEP AT ALL. I think honestly after Dewan Harris and Hunter Dickinson, they really don’t have anyone ready to play at this level (against a top 10 team with really good guards). I’m not a fan of McCullers whatsoever, despite the fact that he got a triple double against a Division 2 team. And the other starters the Jayhawks have would likely not be in the rotation for the Golden Eagles. Christian Braun’s brother is in the rotation off the bench, and he looks like a mid-major player at best. I just don’t see why Kansas is favored in this one. Not only do they lack depth, but they REALLY lack shooting. So you’re asking a lot of young guys who lack experience to go up and beat a very experienced, tough, deep Marquette team by margin? Good luck.
I understand that Marquette snuck by UCLA last night, but the Bruins are a very good young team. They have outstanding guards (Better guards than Kansas overall). And Marquette, despite barely winning, was impressive for a stretch of that game. After getting down 12 in the second half, they went on a 17-0 run, and eventually got as much as a 7 point lead in that game. UCLA went from playing outstanding to completely out of synch. This is a VETERAN TEAM with tons of talent. Brandon Kolak is “SURGICAL” as a Point Guard for the Golden Eagles. He didn’t play well yesterday, but he doesn’t have two bad games in a row. He’s going to be locked in for this one. Moreover they had a number of guys step up off the bench and make some huge defensive plays as well as hitting some big time shots.
PICK:
I believe Marquette will be there at the end of the year as well. This is a legit Final Four contender, and Kansas isn’t anywhere near ready to play with a team like this. Give me Marquette all day. I wouldn’t even mess with the +3.5, I would take Marquette Moneyline at +140 or better. I think they win this one outright and I don’t think it’s particularly close.
OFFICIAL PICK = MARQUETTE +140 Moneyline (To Win Outright)
NFL Best Bets 11/19/23
NFL Best Bets of the Day: We’ve got TWO great plays for everyone today!! One straight bet and one teaser of the week.
Teaser of the Week: Let’s start with the teaser as it’s a shorter breakdown.
Teaser Pick: Lions -2 to Jaguars -1
Lions -2: This is probably the one I’d worry about slightly more. I only say that because I don’t LOVE the Lions homefield advantage in a dome. I also think Justin Fields has some incentive to ball out here as he’s playing for a lot (the Bears may draft a QB and he could be playing for a spot as a starter somewhere else). All that said, I do think the Lions have a great shot to win this game. We’re getting them through the key numbers of 7 and 3, so it’s a very valuable leg. But most of all, the Bears have no incentive to win this game as a whole. They want the best possible draft pick. While the Lions have a ton to play for, trying to run away with the NFC North and compete for the first round bye and #1 overall seed. So we will back the Lions -2 as leg number one.
Jaguars -1: You might even be able to get this to a PK. I truly believe this one won’t be close. So to me, I’m getting 6 points on another leg for free on a straight bet. Why? Before last week the Jags had been rolling. The defense had been playing well, and they have looked better offensively, albeit not amazing. They just ran into a 49ers team last week that was on a mission to prove they were still a contender and they made that statement. The Jags are NOT a Super Bowl contender. But they are FAR better than the Titans who have basically punted on this season, trading away Kevin Byard to Phili and going to a rookie QB to help him get some experience and develop. The Titans on the road are one of the worst teams in the league. This is not the Titans of the last few years, and I think this one isn’t close. Would consider playing them in a straight bet as well, and I think this will be a blowout.
Straight Bet:
Pick: Cleveland Browns -120 ML vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Summary:
Okay, so this game ORIGINALLY opened at Cleveland -4 with a total of 38. Obviously the news of DeShaun Watson being out for the year (thus missing this game closed the game). We re-opened Browns +1 and that got GOBBLED up quickly by professionals. In fact in some spots it’s been bet up to Browns -2 (Going through zero isn’t that big of a move, but moving 3 points is a sizable move in the NFL). And to me that makes perfect sense. Why? This Steelers team is absurdly over-valued in the market, and they are SIGNIFICANTLY worse than their record. They are quite possibly the WORST 6-3 team I’ve ever seen. So I’ve been looking to fade the Steelers for a long time, and with Watson out I think it’s the perfect spot.
This year, the Steelers are 6-0 in one-score games, and they are the LUCKIEST team in the NFL (one of the luckiest teams in the past decade, according to the luck metric). This Pittsburgh team has literally been out gained in EVERY SINGLE game this season, and yet they’ve found a way to win 6 of their 9 games. It’s actually a statistical anomaly.
Browns Offense vs. Steelers Defense:
So yes, the biggest part of this handicap is the fact that DeShaun Watson is not play. In steps Dorian Thompson Robinson, as he will make his second career start. And, let’s not sugarcoat it; his first career start was really bad. He was 19/36 for 121 yards, 0 TDs, 3 Picks, and he was sacked 4 times. It was a bloodbath, and the Browns got smoked at home by the Ravens → This will almost certainly lead the public to be on the Steelers in this spot. Here’s the issue with that: this is NOTHING like that first start for DTR.
Let’s look at ALL of the factors that went into that first career start. First, DTR is a rookie, and this game was very early in the season. Second, he’s not only a backup receiving very few reps in practice, but likely even less than normal in the off-season, as he was backing up DeShaun Watson, and Watson did not play in 11 games last season. You have to believe Watson was taking every single rep he possibly could in the off-season and early in the year in practce. So DTR had VERY limited snaps. Third, there was uncertainty throughout the week as to whether Watson was actually going to play. He even practiced some on Thursday of that week, and Watson wasn’t even ruled out until game day. That means the gameplan was in no way tailored to DTR. AND, he was doing it with no Nic Chubb (only 2nd game), and no Jack Conklin (best Offensive Lineman). Lastly, they were going against the Baltimore Ravens, one of the NFL’s best (most physical) defenses. So you add all that up, and it’s really hard to look at that game and view it as any sort of meaningful datapoint to evaluate DTR. This week, he’s gotten the practice reps all week. He’s been named the starter early (helps him prepare mentally and physically to start). They are playing a much inferior defense in the Steelers. And the offense is more equipped now to function without Chubb and Conklin (been doing it for months now).
Secondly, we have to ask ourselves how much we are really losing here from D-Wat being out. I mean, I like Watson, and I believe if he stays healthy he can still get back to top 10 QB form. But the reality is that he was not very good this season, with the exception of the second half against Baltimore last week. Watson was 29th in completion percentage, 25th in Yards Per Pass Attempt, & 18th in TD:INT ratio. Pro Football Focus had him ranked 23rd in the NFL, behind Derek Carr, Justin Fields, Jordan Love, and Ryan Tannehil. So he’s been nothing to write home about this season. And that’s not even mentioning his propensity to throw pick sixes & commit early game TO’s (see last week). I actually like that it’s DTR here, because I think he’s just as good as PJ Walker (in fact I think he’s slightly better). But I believe the perception among the public is that Walker is better (which will put even more of Joe Public on the Steelers here). In fact, Walker grades out the worst QB in the past decade of anyone who has had at least 500 drop backs.
Lastly on this side of the ball: Steelers Defense. Their PFF Grade: 16th Ranked Defense Overall, 21st in Tackling, 17th in Red Zone “D”, & 19th Coverage. The only thing they do well is rush the passer (7th in NFL). The Steeler’s have been AWFUL defending the run this year, especially lately, and they are DECIMATED by injuries, especially at the LB position. Now, they do get Cam Hayward back this week, and that will help them against the run, but you have to believe Cleveland is going to have some real success on the ground, and DTR is going to have some light boxes to be able to hit Amari Cooper & Njoku over the middle vs some LB’s who really struggle to cover. So, overall my point is: DTR isn’t THAT BIG of a step down from Watson, and it’s a good spot for the Browns here, against a very subpar defense. The perception of DTR is too low, and the perception of the Pittsburgh “D” is too high (bc of their record). As long as DTR doesn’t turn the ball over, they should be able to have some significant offensive success.
Browns “D” vs. Steelers “O”
Despite all the info above, this is actually the biggest mismatch in this game. The Browns Defense is legitimately the best in the NFL, and they showed it last week. In reality, the Ravens Offense (who has been explosive lately) was held to 17 total points. They scored 31, but one TD was a pick six, and another came off a muffed punt where the Ravens started inside the Cleveland 7 yard line.
The Browns have been really good against the run this season. They are top 10 in the NFL in both Rush Success Rate Allowed as well as EPA/Rush. They’ve been great against the pass as well, allowing just 55% completion percentage to opposing QBs, 9 Passing TDs (T-2nd Least Allowed), 9 INTs (6th Most), and just 5.8 yards per pass (5th NFL). As a whole, they’ve allowed just 62 first downs all season (1st NFL), and they’ve allowed a 1st down percentage of 26.3% (1st NFL). They’ve also accrued 30 sacks (T-5th NFL), and Myles Garrett has been an absolute menace.
All of those stats are incredible for the league’s top defense, but they sound even better when they are going up against Kenny Picket and Matt Canada. Kenny Pickett has been HORRIBLE this season. Here’s the starting QBs he’s graded out better than so far this season: Josh Dobbs, Mac Jones, Zach Wilson = He’s been worse than literally every other starter. That include Jimmy G, Justin Fields, Jordan Love, Tyrod Taylor, & Derek Carr. It’s been embarrassingly bad. And the sad part about all of it is that they’ve been incredibly conservative in doing so. The whole scheme of the Steelers is “Don’t fuck up. Don’t turn it over.” Listen to this: Kenny Pickett has not attempted a SINGLE PASS between the hash marks in the entirety of his past two starts. NOT ONE. That’s wild. What does all this mean? This offense is insanely predictable. The entirety of the offense is let’s run the ball, throw short and outside, and do everything we can to minimize mistakes. That might work if you have an incredible defense, but when you don’t it’s just stupid (I say that and somehow they are 6-3).
I just don’t see how this offense has any success here, on the road, against this elite Browns “D”. Pickett may not turn the ball over tomorrow, but he almost certainly will not have a productive/efficient game. And if the Steelers get down early, I don’t know how they get back in the game. They’d pretty much have to abandon the entirety of their plan (which I don’t see happening).
Final Thoughts/Pick:
Overall, I just think this Steelers team is really bad, and their record masks that. On the other hand, I think this Browns team is really good, and it’s a shame Watson went down; however, as we discussed, the drop off to DTR isn’t quite as big as some might think. I’m not sure the Browns have a legit shot to win the division with DTR under center, but I think they lean on the run game, they lean on the defense, and ultimately DTR will make some plays with his legs (and maybe a few deep balls). We’re happily backing the CLEVELAND BROWNS in this spot. I bet this game 3 days ago and got it at PK (-110). There are plenty of -120 out there. I could even justify taking -125 if you had to. As always shop around and find the best number. I definitely would try to find a good ML price as opposed to laying any points (The total is 33, so a point or two could matter).
CFB Best Bets 11/18/23
We had a GREAT weekend last week!! Went 3-1 on our big best bets, and had a great weekend on our side plays as well. Let’s try to have another great weekend?
Best Bets CFB Week 12 (2 Unit Plays)
Michigan State +4 @ Indiana
Miami PK vs. Louisville
Old Dominion +6 @ Georgia Southern
Oregon State -115 (ML) vs. Washington
Side Plays (1 Unit Plays)
Northwestern +3 vs. Purdue
Army +3 vs. Coastal Carolina
West Virginia -5 vs. Cinci
App State +10 @ James Madison
Arizona -1 vs. Utah
Wyoming -13 vs. Hawaii
Arizona State +24.5 vs. Oregon
ML Dog Parlay Of The Week:
Army +120 over CCU | UNLV +140 over Air Force | UCF +120 over TTU
Pays: 10.1 to 1
CFB Best Bets 11/11/23
Four Big Best Bets (2 Unit Plays)
1) Michigan -4 @ Penn State
2) Central Florida +3 vs. Oki State
3) Pittsburgh -3 @ Syracuse
4) San Jose State PK vs. Fresno State
Side Plays (1 Unit Plays)
1) Miami (FL) 1H +8 @ Florida State
2) Utah +9.5 @ Washington
3) Northwestern +9 @ Wisconsin
4) West Virginia +13.5 @ OU
ML Dog Parlay:
Utah +280 to beat Washington | WVU +340 to beat OU (13.8 to 1)
College Football Best Bets Week 10 (11/4/2023)
I cannot believe we are in WEEK TEN of college football already. Every year it seems we wait around for football to start, and then it finally does; and then we BLINK, and it’s over. We’ve only got a few more weeks remaining of the regular season and it’s starting to really heat up. The first CFB playoff rankings came out last week, and shockingly Ohio State was ranked as the top team in the country. I have a sneaking suspicion that the Buckeyes won’t even be in the playoff, but we’ll let Ryan Day have his moment for the next few weeks. This week we have some monster matchups with CFB Playoff implications. Let’s take a look a the betting slate for this week
BEST BETS
Best Bet of the Week No. 1: ARKANSAS +6.5 @ Florida (2 Units)
Now look, this line has moved a TON since I bet it, but I’m still going to give it out, because it hasn’t crossed through either of the ultra key numbers in CFB. I have 6.5 and it’s still sitting at 3.5 right now. Nonetheless, a full 3 point move is a lot, so play this one with caution if you are looking to back the Hogs.
This is just purely a spot play. Florida basically emptied the tank last week taking on Georgia, trying to stay in contention for the SEC East. Unfortunately they got stomped by the Bulldogs, and it really wouldn’t have mattered much if Florida played it’s best game of the season anyways, as they were just at a huge disadvantage. They failed to cover as 14.5 point dogs, and now they have to get back up on the horse and take on an Arkansas team that, well, has looked pretty awful. There’s no chance that anyone in that Florida locker room is getting “up” to play two-win Arkansas.
On the other side we’ve got the Hogs of Arkansas, who come in with just two wins all season. They are coming off their 6th straight loss, and a team that can’t seem to get things on track. To me though, Arkansas hit the bottom of the barrel two weeks ago when they lost to Mississippi State at home, despite only giving up 7 points. The offense only put up 3 total points the entire game, and the Hogs lost the game outright as 6 point favorites. However, when you look at the Hogs schedule, they have been very competitve in every game they’ve played this year. The BYU loss they led most of the way before giving it away late. Against LSU they led nearly the entire game, and damn near pulled the outright upset as 17 point dogs. A couple of bad TO’s derailed Arkansas against Texas A&M in a game that the Hogs led in the second half as well. Follow that up with a 7 point loss at Ole Miss (and a cover), before traveling to Tuscaloosa, where they had the ball with a chance to drive and BEAT ALABAMA ON THE ROAD!! After emptying the tank in Tuscaloosa for a game that might’ve saved their season, they then had to bounce back against a much worse Mississippi State team.
We’re getting them here off a bye, which in this case is a good thing, because they needed that time to get healthy and to make some changes on the offensive side of the ball schematically. I also LOVE that they get Florida off the Georgia game. And I love the fact that they’ve competed with, and had chances to beat teams much better than this Florida team (and that includes Ole Miss and Bama on the road). Lastly, I like that even though they have lost 6 games, they are still playing to make a bowl, and they MUST win this one to be Bowl Eligble. The rest of their schedule is managable up until the final game of the season at Mizzou. If they can get through this game, they still have a legit chance to get into a bowl. We’re going to get Arkansas’ best shot here - back the Hogs. LOVED Them at 6.5. Liked them a lot at +4 or better. At +3.5 I still like them, just not as much. I played this for TWO UNITS. If you get 3.5 play it for 1. If you can find a spot with +4 play it for 2 units.
PICK: Arkansas +6.5 (Play to +4 at 2 units, Play at +3.5, +3 at 1 Unit)
Best Bet No. 2: Iowa State -2.5 vs. Kansas (2 Units)
Again, this is just a spot play. We look at Kansas last week pulling off the biggest upset in their school’s history, defeating undefeated, #6 OU at home. It took an inspired effort by the Jayhawks, and it came down to the final play. If you didn’t watch the game, I can promise you that KU gave the Sooners their absolute best shot. Now you have to get up to go to Aimes Iowa at 6 P.M. on a Saturday night? Good luck.
Aimes is not only an extremely tough place to play, but the Cyclones are actually pretty good this year. Despite a poor start (as always), and a baffling loss to Ohio University, the Cyclones have now won 3 straight, and 4 of their last 5. They are playing much better football on both sides of the ball and they finally found a competent QB to replace Brock Purdy from a couple years ago.
Every box score you look at for ISU is accurate, meaning they did not get outgained or beaten in the box score and find a way to win based on the “luck factor” in the past 3 games. They’ve just legitimately been playing good football. Kansas is for sure playing well, but they’ve been not great on the road, and the last time the left Lawerence, their defense gave up damn near 40 points to Oki State and lost the game outright. Jason Bean is playing better, but he’s still not the most accurate QB and a clear step down from Jalon Daniels. Give me the Cyclones laying less than a FG here, while the public will be all over the Jayhawks
PICK: Iowa State -2.5 (Play at 2 Units)
Pick No. 3: Boise State +3 @ Fresno State (2 Units)
Fresno state comes in at 7-1 while Boise State comes in 4-4. But those scores are very deceiving. The Broncos have given multiple games away this season, including one a few weeks ago when they had a 99.9% chance to win with 4 minutes to go in the game, leading by 20. They blew that lead and lost the game. They also gave one away at Memphis in week 5, as they were going into score a Touchdown, already up 3. Instead of going for it on fourth and 1 from the Memphis 7 yard line, with a RB who has failed to be stopped in a 4th and 1 or shorter all year, they opted to kick a FG. The FG was blocked and returned for a TD for Memphis, and instead of going up 10, they went down 4. They went on to lose the game by 3. If those two games go the way of the Broncos they are 6-2.
On the other side Fresno State is 7-1, however those numbers lie significantly. They were outgained in total yards & yards per play in both of their two previous contests. They also had a lower success rate in both games, and yet they pulled off both wins, largely due to some fortunate breaks (and UNLV turning the ball over 4 times). When you look at the post-game win expectency for Fresno State in their previous two wins, they were Less than 15% and less than 10%. The odds of them winning both of those games was less than 2%, and yet they DID win both. If those games both go the way they should’ve, Fresno State is 5-3.
The reason I mention these games, is if Fresno State comes into this one at 5-3, off 2 straight losses, and Boise State comes into this game at 6-2, off 6 consecutive wins, what is this line? I can promise you it’s not 3 (or even 2.5 in some spots). I think it’s closer to 6 or 7. So to me, the reality is that these teams are much more equal than their records indicate. Boise State is a much better football team than their record indicates, and they’ve proven they can go on the road and really compete. Both games against Memphis and CSU, although they lost, they were in great position to win both. I don’t see the homefield of Fresno being much a factor here, and I think Boise not only stays within in the number but I think they win outright. Give me the Broncos catching 3
PICK: Boise State +3 @ Fresno State
Three More Official Plays:
Alabama -3 vs. LSU: Alabama at home, in a revenge spot here. Three just seems short to me. LSU is INCREDIBLE offensively. But they really haven’t played any great defenses. The one pretty good defense they faced was Florida State, and LSU was pretty much shut down in the second half of that game. Bama’s got the better defense by far. LSU’s defense has a flurry of injuries coming into this one, and as good as LSU’s offense has been, their defense has damn near been just that bad. I’m not sure how LSU finds stops in this one. Alabama should easily touch 35 in this one. They’ll find a way to get just enough stops at home to pull it out. Give me the Tide laying a short number at home.
Michigan State +3 vs. Nebraska: Michigan State is FUCKING AWFUL, and Nebraska is playing much better football. So why is the line only Nebraska -3 when MSU has been nothing short of putrid this season? Because Nebraska is still bad, and their passing offense is very, very average. MSU is good enough to stop the run against this team. But honestly, CFB is just weird, and this just feels like a spot that MSU finally gets a win. Nebraska is due for a loss, while MSU is due for a win. Give me the Spartans +3 but I think they win the game outright.
Texas State -120 vs. Ga Southern: I liked this one early in the week and I got it at +2, but I still like it ML now as a short favorite. This line moved 4 full points (albeit through zero). Texas State gets Ga Southern in a great spot as they are coming off playing their rivals, and getting bowl eligible. Texas State is one of 3 FBS teams to never play in a bowl game. This game would be their sixth win and get them Bowl Eligible. I like the Bobcats to get it done here at home. Give me the Bobcats ML in a SAN MARCOS SPECIAL!!
All plays 2U’s
MONEYLINE PARLAY OF THE WEEK (2 Team ML Dog Parlay)
We’re going to parlay two of the teams we already bet here and take:
Michigan State Spartans +135
Boise State Broncos: +125
Pays 4.5 to 1
Opinions: DID NOT BET ANY OF THESE - these are just my leans
Old Dominion PK
Alabama/LSU Over 61.5
Texas -3 (if it gets that low)
Illinois +2
UCLA -2.5
GT +2
UGA/Mizzou OVER 55.5
Georgia State/JMU UNDER 53.5
ND -3
Ole Miss -3
NFL Best Bets 10/29/23
Getting to post this a bit later than I wanted to so I’m going to skip the long breakdown and post the official picks so they are out before kickoff.
Our BEST BET OF THE WEEK: Denver Broncos +7 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
They say that it’s hard to beat a team 2 times in one season. They say it’s really hard to beat a team 3 times in a ROW. How about 17 times in a row? That’s what KC is trying to do today against the Broncos. The problem is, I think the Broncos are actually an improving team, and I think KC is due for a loss. KC’s offense hasn’t been great as of late, and the Denver defense is trending up as they’ve gotten healthier. This makes no sense if I’m being honest, and that’s exactly why I LOVE it. Give me the Broncos +7 for my best bet of the week, and if your as bold as I am, sprinkle a little on the Moneyline (see ML Dog parlay below)
TEASER OF THE WEEK: Lions -2 to Chargers -2.5
We’re going to tease both the Lions and Chargers through the key numbers of 3 and 7
Both teams are home favorites, and I like both teams to win here relatively easily. Chargers take care of business by 14. Lions bounce back from the ugly game last week and win by 10. Easy winner on this one.
Extra Opinions:
Washington Commanders +7 vs. Eagles: Commanders always play the Eagles close - statistically this doesn’t make sense. I make the game 8.5, but bad spot for the Eagles, and the Commanders have a shot to win this one outright, so I’ll take the points.
Titans +2.5 vs. Falcons: Will Levis can’t be a step down from Tannehil so this is really a positive. At home the Titans are a different team. Desmond Ridder is AWFUL on the road Gimme the points, there’s a reason this didn’t get to 3 even with tons of public money on the favorite.
Packers +1.5 vs. Vikings: Kirk Cousins on the road in 30 degree temperatures? Give me the Packers. And if the Packers can’t win here, then I can promise you that I will never bet on the Packers again a day in my life. Jordan Love is an absolute bum, but I think he does just enough to get us the win here.
Chiefs @ Broncos Under 45.5: Denver’s defense is trending up, and KC’s defense is already really good. This is too many points in a game that’s going to be freezing cold up in Denver.
Bengals +4 @ 49ers: Burrow looks like he’s back, plus they’re off a bye. Purdy hasn’t looked the same since his first loss, and he’s trending the opposite way you’d like if you were a SF fan. Gimme the Bengals all day here.
ML Dog Parlay of the Week in the NFL:
Well I used to do these as 3-teamers, and I tended to hit 2, and lose on the last one a lot of the time, and it was always a will I won’t I hedge. Instead I’m dialing it back to 2-team ML Dogs. I hit those at an insanely high rate (54%) and they pay roughly 4-10 to 1 depending on the size of the dogs. I like one today a lot. I’m playing both on the side with the points
Give me the Broncos ML & Bengals ML for 10 Bucks = It pays 9 to 1 here and I think both teams are VERY live dogs. We’re going to start a streak with these ML Dog parlays as we hit our college one last night (Thanks to the schools in ARIZONA!!)
Good luck with all your wagers this Sunday!!
CFB Best Bets 10/28/23
I’ve had some really bad luck the past few weeks on my Best Bets, with lots of bad beats, but we STILL remain positive. Always got to bounce back, and long run/large sample size is what it’s all about
Best Bet of the Week:
South Carolina +17 @ Texas A&M
Let’s be real here, A&M shouldn’t be laying 17 points against anyone. I know South Carolina has been smacked two of their last 3 games, but they rarely get beaten like that two games in a row. The last time South Carolina was beaten by 20+, they came out and really dominated most of the game against a decent Florida team. South Carolina is a weird team, and they often play up to their competition in spots like this. I think they compete in this game for most of the way. Could they pull the outright upset? Maybe - I think there’s probably too large of a talent gap overall. But let’s fade A&M with a backup QB in this spot - it’s just too many points (I make this game 11.5). Give me the Game Cocks +17
Top Rated Plays (4)
Spot Play No. 1: Indiana +30.5 @ Penn State
This is PURELY a spot play. Indiana is HORRIFIC. They have two wins all year, and one is against an FCS team, while the other is a 2 point win against Akron. So it’s not like we’re taking this team expecting them to have ANY shot to win this game. But Indiana’s HC Tom Allen will have his bunch ready to play. And most of all, Penn State is coming off the biggest game of their season last week, where they were beat by Ohio State. It’s really hard to now get up for a home game against a BAD Indiana Team. In a regular spot I make this game 29, which isn’t much value. But with Alar’s lack of big play ability, and the spot, I think anything over 28 points is just too many. IU will hang around early and likely lose by 17-24. Give me the Hoosiers catching more than 4 TDs.
Market Play No. 1: Western Michigan -3 vs. Eastern Michigan
This is a play based SOLELY on the Market. The Market is telling us that WMU is by far the side here. Eastern Michigan opened as a 1.5 point FAVORITE. Within 2 days, that number swung a full 4.5 points with WMU now sitting at -3. There have been no major injuries so this line movement is fully based on some really sharp groups.
I do understand that -3 is a key number, but to me, if the move is this real, to move it all the way to 3, and there’s been ZERO buy back on EMU, I think we’re good laying the 3. It’s going to be a push at absolute worst. I think WMU blows them out. Give me WMU -3
Buy Low/Sell High: Michigan State +7 @ Minnesota
Look, there’s nothing pretty, or even decent looking about Michigan State. This season has been an absolute dumpster fire for a program that is used to competing for Big 10 Titles over the past two decades. Not only did their coach get fired (which is probably a good thing for the success of the program in the long run). But after starting 2-0, they’ve been a dismal 1-4 since, including 2 shutout losses to Washington and last week to Michigan. This is a complete buy low spot for MSU. Last week they took on their rival Michigan, and they were just COMPLETELY outclassed by a far superior football team. It also came on the heels of a hearbreaking loss to Rutgers. That was a game in which Michigan State led by 18 WITH THE BALL in the fourth quarter, and went on to lose the game. So last week, losing in that manor, well that’s about what I expected. So we’re now getting MSU at an absolutely rock bottom price here.
Minnesota on the other hand comes into this game off an emotional win, that most people saw transpire. It was a controversial call by the officials that allowed Minnesota to hold on there, after Iowa returned a punt for a TD with under 2 minutes to play. Minnesota won the game without scoring a touchdown, a feat that could only be performed against the Iowa Hawkeyes and Brian Ferentz.
So we have Minnesota off a HUGE win. We have MSU off a BEAT DOWN. This is a great buy low, sell high spot. This line 2 weeks ago is probably 4? To me, these teams are the same they were two weeks ago, Michigan State might be even slightly better. There’s no way in the world you could convince me to lay a touchdown with Minnesota. i like the value here with the dog once again. Give me the Spartans +7
Matchup/Trajectory Play: Arizona +3 vs. Oregon State: Arizona has been playing really good football as of late. Oregon State is a different team away from home. I like Arizona to not only win, but pull the outright upset. Their offense has played fantastic as of late. They’ve also improved significantly defensively. The key to this game will be the Arizona Offensive Line - they might be the best one in the Pac 12. Give me Arizona +3
Opinions:
BYU +21 @ Texas: Don’t love this one, but anything over 3 TDs just seems like too much, no matter who’s playing QB.
Kansas +8.5 vs. OU: I think Kansas has a real shot to win this game. But both teams are so bad defensively and so explosive offensively, that it’s hard to make this an official play. Too many ways that KU could hang in there for 3 full quarters and still not cover. Still like the Jayhawks here as an opinion, just not as an official play (They ALMOST made my list)
Arizona State +6 vs. Washington State: ASU might be the best 1-6 team I’ve ever seen. They play super hard. They are in most of the games they play. They had the undefeated Washington Huskies beat last week, and if it weren’t for a pick six, they probably pull the upset as 28+ point dogs. Give me ASU here, as they get the win OUTRIGHT against a team on the downslide in Wazzu and the fighting Mike Leaches.
ML DOG PARLAY: I’m weirdly good at these
Give me the Arizona schools tonight: Both later games, both live dogs. Weird things happen in the Pac 12 after dark
Arizona ML + Arizona State ML = It should pay around 4 to 1? I got it for $25 to win about $98
Let’s get a nice win here!!
NFL Best Bet & Picks For Sunday (10/14/23)
One BEST BET for this NFL Sunday: Had a rough one last week, but we always bounce back.
Game: New England Patriots @ Las Vegas Raiders
Weather: Dome (Indoor)
Summary:
This is an UGLY game, but those are often the games you can find value in the NFL. The New England Patriots have been AWFUL the past couple weeks, and that’s putting it nicely. They we’re blanked last week, 31-0 against the New Orleans Saints. The week before, they got smacked, 38-3 against the Cowboys. It was the two worst losses in the storied history of Bill Belicek as an NFL Head Coach. So we will start by saying that this is a great buy low spot on the Patriots. It should tell you what Las Vegas thinks of the Las Vegas Raiders, considering New England was outscored 69-3 the last two weeks and this is a road game for the Patriots, and yet they are still just a 3 point road dog.
Coaching:
Let’s start with the coaching matchup. No matter the outcome the past two weeks, the Patriots still have the best coach in NFL history on their sideline. Even if you believe he’s lost a bit of his step, I believe he’s still a solid NFL coach. I think back to the Pats/Dolphins game this season, when he dialed up a Bill-special, sneaking a guy out by the sideline, and running him in late to sprint in and block a field goal. It was something that nobody had ever seen before, and it was a heck of a coaching move that actually could’ve influenced the outcome of the game.
On the other side, we have Josh McDaniels. In my opinion, not only is Josh McDaniels the worst NFL head coach in the entire NFL today, but he’s the second worst coach in the history of the NFL (1st being Nathaniel Hackett). McDaniels has made bad coaching decision after bad coaching decision, and he’s really hurt his team that is already lacking talent. Against the Steelers week 3, McDaniels’ Raiders had the ball trailing by 8 with under 4 minutes to play. On a fourth and 5 he decided to opt for a long field goal. After making the kick, a penalty on the Steelers gave the Raiders a first down. The Raiders then got down to the Pittsburgh 9 yard line, and on fourth and 4, he decided to once again kick a field goal, down by 8, this time with under 3 minutes to go. They would go onto lose that game. Against the Chargers, he decided not to challenge a clear TD that DeVante Adams scored, and instead went for a quick QB sneak on 3rd and goal that got stuffed. An automatic touchdown turned into a 4th and goal on the 2. Then last week, up 4 points late in the game, McDaniels did it again. It was fourth and one, and one yard would end the game. Instead, McDaniels settled for a 52 yard field goal from a kicker that had already missed earlier in the night. The kick was missed, and the Packers were given a shot to go win the game. He’s made bad decision after bad decision, and it’s just clear as day that he is an incompetent head coach. So whether or not this game wins, I know that going in, I’m getting 3 points with two teams of equal talent, and I’m getting the far superior coach (both in terms of gameplanning, as well as in game management)
Additionally, you look at what Las Vegas wants to do: Get the ball to Devante Adams. Last week you had a Packers team pretty much take Adams out of the game for almost a full 60 minutes. That was a packers team that got LIT UP the previous week by Jared Goff and the Lions. They couldn’t cover ANYONE and yet that same Packers defense locked down the best WR in the game. Now you get Bill Belicek, who is NOTORIOUS for taking away the opponents number one option. Bill is going to have a good gameplan for taking away Adams. And Gorroppolo will be forced to make plays, finding other receivers. Taking away Adams really gave the Raiders issues offensively last week.
Lastly, the Raiders have been abismal running the ball this season. Josh Jacobs, who led the NFL in rushing yards last year, struggled to get going all night. He’s been incredibly inefficient all season, averaging less than 3 yards per carry. I believe the Patriots already will have a good defensive plan here, but add to the fact that the Raiders are going to be one-dimensional, and predictable offensively? It’s a no brainer that this is advantage Pats. It doesn’t mean they for sure win the game, but again, it’s another edge for the Pats in this game.
Trend:
I don’t like betting on trends alone, but I do like when they strongly support a side I already like, and this one is one that has been profitable over the years. Teams who score 7 points or less back to back weeks, are 68% against the spread over the past 25 years the following week. I also think that trend is more likely to be accurate considering it’s based on performance. As I said before, NFL teams are never as good as they look at their peak, and they are never as bad as they look at their worst. And the Pats have looked their worst the past two weeks.
Matchup:
The Patriots do get some key guys back from injury in the secondary and that will help them defensively. They also had two offensive linemen out last week that are likely to be able to go on Sunday.
The key matchup is going to be Mac Jones against the Raiders pass rush. If Max Crosby can get to Mac Jones, then yes it could go the Raiders way. But I refuse to believe that Bill won’t scheme for that. I think he’s going to have some good protection packages, along with the fact that they get their starting tackle opposite Crosby back. I don’t think Max is going to live in the backfield like he did on Monday night against the Raiders.
The Raiders defense has also been really average. They are in the bottom 10 in the league in defensive efficiency, and this is exactly what the doctor ordered for the Pats. They’ve played a brutal schedule (2nd toughest schedule in the league compared to the Raiders who are middle of the back in S.O.S.)
Lastly the QB matchup. Yes Mac Jones has been bad the last two weeks, and yes he does not look good. But let’s remember that he looked pretty solid the first 3 weeks against some pretty good teams (Eagles, Dolphins, Jets). Additionally, when you look at the comparison, Jimmy G is slightly better overall, but when the 2 are under pressure Mac Jones is significantly better. Jimmy G is the worst QB in the league when he is pressured. Additionally Mac’s big time throw rate is significantly higher than Jimmy G. The key is going to be taking care of the ball. If Mac takes care of the ball, the Pats win this game outright by 7. If he turns it over, we could be in for another ugly one.
PICK:
Again, in an even matchup, I’ll take the points. We’re going to roll with the Pats here, as disgusting as that is to say. But give me New England. The Raiders played a nationally televised game and won last week. The Pats off back to back 30+ point losses. Again, we buy low and sell high, and this is a classic example. The Raiders don’t deserve to lay points against anyone in this league.
OFFICIAL PICK: New England Patriots +3
College Football Best Bet (10/14/23)
One Best Bet For Today in College Football:
Game: Michigan State Spartans +5 @ Rutgers Scarlett Knights
Weather: High Chance of Rain (Going to be Ugly)
Summary:
Michigan State comes into the game 2-3, and it has been a brutal start to the season, on and off the field. After starting with 2-straight wins, the Spartans were walloped at home by Washington 41-7, and it was probably worse than the score shows. However, Washington is the BEST offense in the country, and a legit top-10 team. I don’t think we need to include that datapoint.
The next two games were both losses, but they were a bit deceiving. The Spartans actually hung with Maryland for 3-quarters, trailing by 11 going into the 4th. They actually OUTGAINED the Terrapins in total yards in the game, but 5 turnovers killed the Spartans. When you lose the TO battle 5-1 there’s almost no chance of being in a game late in the fourth. The Spartans then went into Iowa, a really tough place to play, and went toe-to-toe with the Hawkeyes. Although the Hawkeyes are no offensive juggernaut, they are still a 5-1 team playing with a big homefield advantage.
The Spartans are also still dealing with the firing of their head coach, Mel Tucker. Tucker was fired following sexual assault allegations, however it’s not as though the team was playing well under Tucker. He was a below average coach at best.
Matchups:
When you look at the matchups here, they actually favor Michigan State. The two things Michigan State does really well? They run the ball well, and they stop the run. Rutgers on the other hand, is decent offensively rushing, but they’ve struggled to stop the run against good competition. There is a BIG mismatch in the trenches here, as Michigan State’s Offensive Line is much stronger than the Defensive Line of Rutgers.
Michigan State is has not announced their starting QB this week, which is making Rutgers prepare for all 3. This is key, as one of the MSU QBs is a dual threat, one is a straight runner, and the other is a pocket passer. With 3 of the QBs relatively equal in ability (and value to the point spread) this is advantage MSU.
Weather:
When you also incorporate that there is likely to be rain in this game, this favors MSU and their advantage in the trenches even more. Their ability to stop the run and run the ball will play a big factor in the outcome of this game if it starts to get really ugly (which it very well looks like it could).
Spot:
This is a good spot for Michigan State. Not only is the weather helpful in their gameplan, but it should also help with the crowd. It’s homecoming for Rutgers, and if it starts to get really bad weather wise, you can bet that stadium is going to be half empty. Again, advantage Michigan State.
Additionally, Michigan State is off a bye. While being off a bye in college doesn’t mean much in terms of win % against the spread, I think in this spot it does matter. Michigan State needed the additional time to prep. They hired former head coach Mike Dantonio, and he has been a big help patching up the secondary during the bye, according to local reporters.
Pick:
It’s ugly, no doubt. But we’re going to back the Spartans +5 in this spot. It all comes down to taking care of the ball. If Michigan State doesn’t turn the ball over, they not only have a good chance to cover, but they could win outright. I think in rainy conditions the TO battle should be quite even. Rutgers is not good enough to be laying more than 3 points in this spot, so I’ll grab the value.
OFFICIAL PICK: MICHIGAN STATE +5
Additional Opinions (Small plays at best):
Washington -3 vs. Oregon
South Carolina PK vs. Florida
Pittsburgh +8 vs. Louisville
Notre Dame -2.5 vs. USC
Washington State/Arizona OVER 57
NFL BEST BETS WEEK 5 (10/8/23)
Teaser of the Week: 2 Team 6 Point Teaser (Texans +8.5 | Cardinals +9)
Houston Texans +8.5 @ Atlanta Falcons: Getting this above both the key numbers of 3 and 7 is just too many points. Even on the road, the Texans have been by far better than the Falcons through the first 4 weeks. Ridder has struggled to move the ball. The Falcons would need a multiple turnover advantage here to get a double digit win
Arizona Cardinals +9 vs. Cincinnati Bengals: Again just too many points here. Can the Bengals win this game? Yes. But Joe Burrow has been awful, Jamaar Chase is fighting with Zack Taylor, and the Bengals look like an absolute dumpster fire. The Cards have been much better than expected despite their record. I think this is too many points., again going through the two most key numbers in football.
Straight Bet of the Week:
Cowboys +4 (-115) @ 49ers
Opinions:
Panthers @ Lions 1H Under 21.5
Rams +4 vs. Eagles
Jets @ Broncos Over 43.5