NFL Picks (12/17/23)
Author: Dylan Lieck | December 16th, 2023 | 11:11 P.M. CST
We’re already 1-0 on the week 11-8 on the season. Definitely been a down year, but we’re back in the green with a win today (Thank Detroit Lions). Easy winner. Let’s keep this streak going and get another win with our teaser of the week.
NFL Best Bet that won yesterday: Detroit Lions -4.5
We started up 21-0 and it was never really a competitive game
NFL Teaser of the Week
2-Team 6-Point Teaser: Chiefs -2.5 to Rams -.5
Chiefs -2.5
This is a simple value bet. We’re getting the Chiefs a a DIRT cheap price here, basically because they’ve lost the last two games, and because they’ve not looked good on offense for the entirety of the year. Look, I get that the Patriots won last week. I get that the Chiefs have looked really subpar so far this season. I get that this game is in New England and the defense of the Pats has been playing really well. But I’d have a really hard time selling anyone on taking the Patriots -2.5. So on the value side of things we’re getting the Chiefs to basically win the game. The Chiefs have lost two in a row, but if you look back, that is the first time the Chiefs have lost two in a row since week 3 of 2021. It’s almost unheard of for the Chiefs to lose 3 in a row. And it isn’t like they are playing Buffalo or Philadelphia here. They’re playing one of the worst teams in the league.
Also the Patriots are just horrible. Yes they won last week against the Steelers, but Pittsburgh is an absolute fraud, and we saw that again today as they lost to the Colts. The Steelers spotted the Pats 21 points in that game and still almost found a way to lose. There is no way you are going to convince me there’s any value on the Pats at +8.5, so getting them to 2.5 is great.
Obviously we’re going through the key numbers of BOTH 7 and 3, so it’s a great teaser leg number wise. We basically check all the boxes here. I don’t love it being on the road, but I’m just never passing this number up for a teaser leg. I’d give this a 94% chance of hitting, significantly above the break-even line for teasers. No Brainer here.
Rams -.5
Look I don’t LOVE this leg, as we are only going through ONE key number, and we’re taking a team who won a tough game last week. But this is the Rams season. If LA loses this game, they are essentially dead in the NFC playoff race. But a win gives them a great shot to get in the playoffs. This is a MASSIVE game for them, and it’s clear the last 5 weeks that the Rams really do want to get in.
Stafford is playing at a super high level right now, and the Commanders secondary has been horrific this season. We watched those Rams WRs TORCH a very good Ravens secondary last week in bad weather. What are they going to do to one of the worst defenses in the league? This comes down to one thing: Pressure. If the Commanders can’t get pressured, they are going to get absolutely diced up in the secondary.
We’re going to roll with the Rams here in this spot, at home, in a must win. The Commanders have nothing to play for. Sam Howell loves taking sacks and turning it over, so I see Aaron Donald having a field day here.
Official Picks for the Teaser: Chiefs -2.5 | Rams -.5
Units: 2
