College Basketball Best Bets (1/3/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | January 3rd, 2023 | 5:15 P.M. CST
College Hoops Ramping Up For Conference Play:
We’ve got 3 college basketball best bets today. On the website’s official picks for College Hoops this year we are off to a BLISTERING HOT start at 17-4 (80.1%). I would say a couple things before I get to the best bets. First, I have consistently picked at 70%+ in college basketball REGULAR SEASON the past 3 years. This year has been abnormally good to me this early in the season. Conference play is when I really make my big moves and get hot. Hopefully we can just have an incredible run this season, BUT the odds are that this is coming back to earth. The sample size over the past 3 years (not including this season), is 72% in college hoops regular season. Considering we’re at 80+ we are going to likely see some regression soon. Secondly, this time of year can be tricky. As those of you who follow my plays know, my college basketball bets often focus on home teams. However, during this time, students are not all back on campus, and crowds/home court can be much more difficult to predict. Nonetheless, let’s try to keep it rolling tonight (and yes we’re rolling with home teams tonight still).
Best Bet #1 (Play of the Night): Miami Florida +1.5 vs. Clemson
Miami has been a very odd team this year, coming off their cinderella Final Four Run last season in the NCAA Tourney. The Canes currently sit 10-2 overall (1-0 ACC play), unranked in the AP Top 25, despite a pretty decent start to the season. They were ranked in the top 25 for much of the start of the season, following a 5-0 start. However, they suffered tough loss to Kentucky on the road (by 22 points) after the hot start. They dropped again after a 27-point loss to unranked Colorado a few games later. The weird thing about this team, though, is that they have played 12 total games this season, and only 3 of those contests were settled by single digits (either way). They’ve pretty much either blown their opponent out, or they’ve gotten blown out. The closest game they’ve played was a 6-point victory against FIU in the third game of the season.
The worry when looking at this game would be that Miami has stepped up in class twice (UK & Colorado) and they got smoked both times. That’s a valid concern here, as the Canes did not look good in either contest. However, this is a big game for Miami, they’re in the comfort of their own gym, and they’re coming off some rest from the break.
Additionally, both teams are elite shooting the ball, but the Canes shoot it better than the Tigers, ranking 5th nationally in 3 point percentage. In college basketball, role players tend to really shoot the ball better at home, and I think that’s going to play a factor in this one.
Lastly, when you look at Clemson’s schedule, they’ve played three true road games so far this season. Their most recent road game resulted in their lone loss of the season (a 2-point loss to Memphis). They did go on the road earlier in the year and beat Alabama in their own building, a tough place to play. However, that Bama team is WAY down this year from what they’ve been in years past. The other road win came at a Pittsburgh team that’s one of the worst offensive teams in the country. Pittsburgh still put up 70 on the Tigers in that loss. I think Miami is going to do whatever they want on offense in this matchup. They are going to make a ton of threes, and they’re going to force Clemson to play from behind, something they haven’t had to do much this season. Additionally, Miami’s athletes should give Clemson’s guards some trouble here, forcing a large amount of turnovers. In their last road game against a superior team athletically (Memphis), Clemson turned the ball over 15 times, largely because they couldn’t handle the quickness & speed that Memphis had on the court. Miami will do similar things to them here, and it will give Clemson trouble. The place won’t be rocking as it would be if this game were played a couple weeks later, but I still think the Canes at home are a great play. Give me Miami in this spot all day.
Official Pick: Miami Hurricanes +1.5 (Play to PK)
Best Bet #2: Providence -5.5 vs. Seton Hall
This is a spot play pretty much. Seton Hall has not been very good this season as a whole, but they’ve been horrific on the road. I’ve watched this team play multiple times, and they just really struggle to score the basketball. They are getting too much credit analytically, due to that dominating win they had over UCONN. That game was at Seton Hall, it was a rivalry game, and UCONN’s best big man (Donavan Clingan) got hurt early in the first half, causing UCONN to have to really shift their gameplan & rotations.
Seton Hall followed up that performance by going on the road against Xavier, where they were absolutely dismantled by a team that has multiple mid-major losses on their resume this season. I guess the thought process is Seton Hall is inconsistent, and there’s a decent chance they show well in this spot. But the truth is they’re a bad road team, playing against a team that has been elite at home. Providence has won 10 in a row at home going into this matchup, and 7 of those games have been by double digits. I wouldn’t play this above 6, and I’m only going 1-unit because of the winter break aspect to the homecourt advantage. However, I still like the Friars in this spot to cover a relatively small number. To me, the Friars would be a 5 point favorite on a neutral against SH, so let’s take the value here.
Official Pick: Providence Friars -5.5
Best Bet #3: UCLA -4 vs. Stanford
Basically, we’re going to bet a buy low, sell high spot on this one, along with some home court advantage. Stanford played it’s best game of the season a few nights ago (maybe the best game they’ve played in a decade), putting up a 100-piece on the #4 ranked Arizona Wildcats at home. I sure do believe in HC advantage being a massive factor in college hoops, but that one even surprised me. I thought Arizona was maybe the second best team in the country before that matchup, and Stanford just annihilated them.
Sell High on the Cardinal: The problem for Stanford is that on the season they shoot just above 37% from the three point line. In that game against Arizona they where a whopping 16/25 (64%). They were absolutely unconscience from beyond the arc all night long, and it’s damn near impossible to beat a team at home shooting like that. When you come off a game shooting that incredibly well, beating the #4 team in the country when nobody gave you a shot, it’s a clear let down spot here to say the least. I think Stanford stinks it up in this one, and even if they don’t there is zero chance they shoot it even close to as well as they did against the Wildcats.
Buy Low on the Bruins: On the other side, it’s a been a very weird year for Mick Cronin’s team. They started off the season with a pretty good showing in Maui, going 1-2, but really competing in their two losses to teams who are going to be Elite 8/Final 4 contenders this season. Their young guards played exceptionally well, and they looked like a team that had a good shot to contend in the Pac-12 this season. However, since then they’ve done nothing but struggle. They’re coming off a tough 5-point loss at Oregon, and they’ve now dropped 6 of their last 8 games. During that tough stretch they even lost to a low-major team in Cal State Northridge at home. Now they go back home, in what looks like a must win game. This team pretty much has to start turning it around right now if they want a shot at playing in mid-march. The positive news for the Bruins is this could be a perfect spot to get right, getting an overconfident Stanford team coming into your building, knowing that you’ve been struggling. If nothing else, UCLA has a talent edge in this one, and even though they’ve had a rough year, Cronnin is still an elite coach. Give me the Bruins in this one, as we’re getting a depressed price due to the recent results of each team. This number should be closer to 6.5.
Official Pick: UCLA Bruins -4
