NFL Best Bets 11/19/23

NFL Best Bets of the Day: We’ve got TWO great plays for everyone today!! One straight bet and one teaser of the week.

Teaser of the Week: Let’s start with the teaser as it’s a shorter breakdown.

Teaser Pick: Lions -2 to Jaguars -1

Lions -2: This is probably the one I’d worry about slightly more. I only say that because I don’t LOVE the Lions homefield advantage in a dome. I also think Justin Fields has some incentive to ball out here as he’s playing for a lot (the Bears may draft a QB and he could be playing for a spot as a starter somewhere else). All that said, I do think the Lions have a great shot to win this game. We’re getting them through the key numbers of 7 and 3, so it’s a very valuable leg. But most of all, the Bears have no incentive to win this game as a whole. They want the best possible draft pick. While the Lions have a ton to play for, trying to run away with the NFC North and compete for the first round bye and #1 overall seed. So we will back the Lions -2 as leg number one.

Jaguars -1: You might even be able to get this to a PK. I truly believe this one won’t be close. So to me, I’m getting 6 points on another leg for free on a straight bet. Why? Before last week the Jags had been rolling. The defense had been playing well, and they have looked better offensively, albeit not amazing. They just ran into a 49ers team last week that was on a mission to prove they were still a contender and they made that statement. The Jags are NOT a Super Bowl contender. But they are FAR better than the Titans who have basically punted on this season, trading away Kevin Byard to Phili and going to a rookie QB to help him get some experience and develop. The Titans on the road are one of the worst teams in the league. This is not the Titans of the last few years, and I think this one isn’t close. Would consider playing them in a straight bet as well, and I think this will be a blowout.

Straight Bet:

Pick: Cleveland Browns -120 ML vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Summary:

Okay, so this game ORIGINALLY opened at Cleveland -4 with a total of 38. Obviously the news of DeShaun Watson being out for the year (thus missing this game closed the game). We re-opened Browns +1 and that got GOBBLED up quickly by professionals. In fact in some spots it’s been bet up to Browns -2 (Going through zero isn’t that big of a move, but moving 3 points is a sizable move in the NFL). And to me that makes perfect sense. Why? This Steelers team is absurdly over-valued in the market, and they are SIGNIFICANTLY worse than their record. They are quite possibly the WORST 6-3 team I’ve ever seen. So I’ve been looking to fade the Steelers for a long time, and with Watson out I think it’s the perfect spot.

This year, the Steelers are 6-0 in one-score games, and they are the LUCKIEST team in the NFL (one of the luckiest teams in the past decade, according to the luck metric). This Pittsburgh team has literally been out gained in EVERY SINGLE game this season, and yet they’ve found a way to win 6 of their 9 games. It’s actually a statistical anomaly.

Browns Offense vs. Steelers Defense:

So yes, the biggest part of this handicap is the fact that DeShaun Watson is not play. In steps Dorian Thompson Robinson, as he will make his second career start. And, let’s not sugarcoat it; his first career start was really bad. He was 19/36 for 121 yards, 0 TDs, 3 Picks, and he was sacked 4 times. It was a bloodbath, and the Browns got smoked at home by the Ravens → This will almost certainly lead the public to be on the Steelers in this spot. Here’s the issue with that: this is NOTHING like that first start for DTR.

Let’s look at ALL of the factors that went into that first career start. First, DTR is a rookie, and this game was very early in the season. Second, he’s not only a backup receiving very few reps in practice, but likely even less than normal in the off-season, as he was backing up DeShaun Watson, and Watson did not play in 11 games last season. You have to believe Watson was taking every single rep he possibly could in the off-season and early in the year in practce. So DTR had VERY limited snaps. Third, there was uncertainty throughout the week as to whether Watson was actually going to play. He even practiced some on Thursday of that week, and Watson wasn’t even ruled out until game day. That means the gameplan was in no way tailored to DTR. AND, he was doing it with no Nic Chubb (only 2nd game), and no Jack Conklin (best Offensive Lineman). Lastly, they were going against the Baltimore Ravens, one of the NFL’s best (most physical) defenses. So you add all that up, and it’s really hard to look at that game and view it as any sort of meaningful datapoint to evaluate DTR. This week, he’s gotten the practice reps all week. He’s been named the starter early (helps him prepare mentally and physically to start). They are playing a much inferior defense in the Steelers. And the offense is more equipped now to function without Chubb and Conklin (been doing it for months now).

Secondly, we have to ask ourselves how much we are really losing here from D-Wat being out. I mean, I like Watson, and I believe if he stays healthy he can still get back to top 10 QB form. But the reality is that he was not very good this season, with the exception of the second half against Baltimore last week. Watson was 29th in completion percentage, 25th in Yards Per Pass Attempt, & 18th in TD:INT ratio. Pro Football Focus had him ranked 23rd in the NFL, behind Derek Carr, Justin Fields, Jordan Love, and Ryan Tannehil. So he’s been nothing to write home about this season. And that’s not even mentioning his propensity to throw pick sixes & commit early game TO’s (see last week). I actually like that it’s DTR here, because I think he’s just as good as PJ Walker (in fact I think he’s slightly better). But I believe the perception among the public is that Walker is better (which will put even more of Joe Public on the Steelers here). In fact, Walker grades out the worst QB in the past decade of anyone who has had at least 500 drop backs.

Lastly on this side of the ball: Steelers Defense. Their PFF Grade: 16th Ranked Defense Overall, 21st in Tackling, 17th in Red Zone “D”, & 19th Coverage. The only thing they do well is rush the passer (7th in NFL). The Steeler’s have been AWFUL defending the run this year, especially lately, and they are DECIMATED by injuries, especially at the LB position. Now, they do get Cam Hayward back this week, and that will help them against the run, but you have to believe Cleveland is going to have some real success on the ground, and DTR is going to have some light boxes to be able to hit Amari Cooper & Njoku over the middle vs some LB’s who really struggle to cover. So, overall my point is: DTR isn’t THAT BIG of a step down from Watson, and it’s a good spot for the Browns here, against a very subpar defense. The perception of DTR is too low, and the perception of the Pittsburgh “D” is too high (bc of their record). As long as DTR doesn’t turn the ball over, they should be able to have some significant offensive success.

Browns “D” vs. Steelers “O”

Despite all the info above, this is actually the biggest mismatch in this game. The Browns Defense is legitimately the best in the NFL, and they showed it last week. In reality, the Ravens Offense (who has been explosive lately) was held to 17 total points. They scored 31, but one TD was a pick six, and another came off a muffed punt where the Ravens started inside the Cleveland 7 yard line.

The Browns have been really good against the run this season. They are top 10 in the NFL in both Rush Success Rate Allowed as well as EPA/Rush. They’ve been great against the pass as well, allowing just 55% completion percentage to opposing QBs, 9 Passing TDs (T-2nd Least Allowed), 9 INTs (6th Most), and just 5.8 yards per pass (5th NFL). As a whole, they’ve allowed just 62 first downs all season (1st NFL), and they’ve allowed a 1st down percentage of 26.3% (1st NFL). They’ve also accrued 30 sacks (T-5th NFL), and Myles Garrett has been an absolute menace.

All of those stats are incredible for the league’s top defense, but they sound even better when they are going up against Kenny Picket and Matt Canada. Kenny Pickett has been HORRIBLE this season. Here’s the starting QBs he’s graded out better than so far this season: Josh Dobbs, Mac Jones, Zach Wilson = He’s been worse than literally every other starter. That include Jimmy G, Justin Fields, Jordan Love, Tyrod Taylor, & Derek Carr. It’s been embarrassingly bad. And the sad part about all of it is that they’ve been incredibly conservative in doing so. The whole scheme of the Steelers is “Don’t fuck up. Don’t turn it over.” Listen to this: Kenny Pickett has not attempted a SINGLE PASS between the hash marks in the entirety of his past two starts. NOT ONE. That’s wild. What does all this mean? This offense is insanely predictable. The entirety of the offense is let’s run the ball, throw short and outside, and do everything we can to minimize mistakes. That might work if you have an incredible defense, but when you don’t it’s just stupid (I say that and somehow they are 6-3).

I just don’t see how this offense has any success here, on the road, against this elite Browns “D”. Pickett may not turn the ball over tomorrow, but he almost certainly will not have a productive/efficient game. And if the Steelers get down early, I don’t know how they get back in the game. They’d pretty much have to abandon the entirety of their plan (which I don’t see happening).

Final Thoughts/Pick:

Overall, I just think this Steelers team is really bad, and their record masks that. On the other hand, I think this Browns team is really good, and it’s a shame Watson went down; however, as we discussed, the drop off to DTR isn’t quite as big as some might think. I’m not sure the Browns have a legit shot to win the division with DTR under center, but I think they lean on the run game, they lean on the defense, and ultimately DTR will make some plays with his legs (and maybe a few deep balls). We’re happily backing the CLEVELAND BROWNS in this spot. I bet this game 3 days ago and got it at PK (-110). There are plenty of -120 out there. I could even justify taking -125 if you had to. As always shop around and find the best number. I definitely would try to find a good ML price as opposed to laying any points (The total is 33, so a point or two could matter).