College Basketball Best Bet 11/30/23

Author: Dylan Lieck | 11/30/23 | 3:07 P.M. CST

There’s a great spot for ONE college basketball play tonight. 

Best Bet #1

Game: Texas Tech @ Butler 

  • Line: Butler -1.5

  • Total: 138.5 

  • Location: Heinckle Field House (Butler Home Arena) 

  • Time: 5:30 PM  |  Broadcast: Fox Sports 1

Pick: Butler -1 (play to -2 or -130 ML) 

Summary:

Once again we are going with a home team in this spot. Full disclosure, a lot of books are already moving this line. I’ve seen a -1 out there still (what I got it at) but a lot of places have moved it a full point to -2. I still like it at -2. Anything over -2, you may want to look to the Moneyline, but it’s probably okay at -2.5.

Overall, this is a combination of a few things. Obviously home court advantage is the biggest. I don’t think there’s really very big of a gap between these two teams. It’s definitely harder to tell early in the year at this point, however from the data points I have, and from the numbers, I don’t see that big of a difference between the two teams. Butler comes into the game 5-2, while Tech comes in 5-1. Butler’s 2 losses came at Michigan State (who is still a top 15 team in the country in my Power Ratings), and on a neutral floor to FAU (possibly a top 10 team). Butler also covered the spread against FAU, losing by just 5 (86-91). However, Tech’s lone loss came against Villanova. I know Nova just ran through the battle for Atlantis field, but let’s be honest that field was extremely underwhelming. Nova is also insanely inconsistent. They’ve beaten 3 good power 5 teams, and lost to Penn University and St. Joes. So I don’t even have Nova in my top 25 power rankings currently.

The one data point that really make me lean Butler, though, is actually a Texas Tech win. I watched Tech play a 2-5 Northern Iowa team in the Battle for Atlantis, and it basically took a MIRACLE comeback for them to squeak out a 2 point victory. They looked awful, especially defensively in the game. That is a Northern Iowa team with losses to North Texas, and a 20-point home loss to Belmont. Tech should’ve lost that game (they trailed by 15 with 7 minutes to play). Oddsmakers are overreacting to the Red Raiders blowout win over Michigan. A Michigan team that is nowhere near what it’s been in years past (in fact it’s the worst Michigan team I’ve seen in 2 decades).

Butler is the better shooting team overall, as they shoot nearly 8% better eFG%-wise compared to Texas Tech. They share the ball better, averaging 3 more assists per game. And all the while they have played the tougher schedule? Yeah give me Butler all day here.

Dylan’s Pick: Butler -1 (play to -2)

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