CFB Best Bets 10/28/23

I’ve had some really bad luck the past few weeks on my Best Bets, with lots of bad beats, but we STILL remain positive. Always got to bounce back, and long run/large sample size is what it’s all about

Best Bet of the Week:

South Carolina +17 @ Texas A&M

Let’s be real here, A&M shouldn’t be laying 17 points against anyone. I know South Carolina has been smacked two of their last 3 games, but they rarely get beaten like that two games in a row. The last time South Carolina was beaten by 20+, they came out and really dominated most of the game against a decent Florida team. South Carolina is a weird team, and they often play up to their competition in spots like this. I think they compete in this game for most of the way. Could they pull the outright upset? Maybe - I think there’s probably too large of a talent gap overall. But let’s fade A&M with a backup QB in this spot - it’s just too many points (I make this game 11.5). Give me the Game Cocks +17

Top Rated Plays (4)

Spot Play No. 1: Indiana +30.5 @ Penn State

This is PURELY a spot play. Indiana is HORRIFIC. They have two wins all year, and one is against an FCS team, while the other is a 2 point win against Akron. So it’s not like we’re taking this team expecting them to have ANY shot to win this game. But Indiana’s HC Tom Allen will have his bunch ready to play. And most of all, Penn State is coming off the biggest game of their season last week, where they were beat by Ohio State. It’s really hard to now get up for a home game against a BAD Indiana Team. In a regular spot I make this game 29, which isn’t much value. But with Alar’s lack of big play ability, and the spot, I think anything over 28 points is just too many. IU will hang around early and likely lose by 17-24. Give me the Hoosiers catching more than 4 TDs.

Market Play No. 1: Western Michigan -3 vs. Eastern Michigan

This is a play based SOLELY on the Market. The Market is telling us that WMU is by far the side here. Eastern Michigan opened as a 1.5 point FAVORITE. Within 2 days, that number swung a full 4.5 points with WMU now sitting at -3. There have been no major injuries so this line movement is fully based on some really sharp groups.

I do understand that -3 is a key number, but to me, if the move is this real, to move it all the way to 3, and there’s been ZERO buy back on EMU, I think we’re good laying the 3. It’s going to be a push at absolute worst. I think WMU blows them out. Give me WMU -3

Buy Low/Sell High: Michigan State +7 @ Minnesota

Look, there’s nothing pretty, or even decent looking about Michigan State. This season has been an absolute dumpster fire for a program that is used to competing for Big 10 Titles over the past two decades. Not only did their coach get fired (which is probably a good thing for the success of the program in the long run). But after starting 2-0, they’ve been a dismal 1-4 since, including 2 shutout losses to Washington and last week to Michigan. This is a complete buy low spot for MSU. Last week they took on their rival Michigan, and they were just COMPLETELY outclassed by a far superior football team. It also came on the heels of a hearbreaking loss to Rutgers. That was a game in which Michigan State led by 18 WITH THE BALL in the fourth quarter, and went on to lose the game. So last week, losing in that manor, well that’s about what I expected. So we’re now getting MSU at an absolutely rock bottom price here.

Minnesota on the other hand comes into this game off an emotional win, that most people saw transpire. It was a controversial call by the officials that allowed Minnesota to hold on there, after Iowa returned a punt for a TD with under 2 minutes to play. Minnesota won the game without scoring a touchdown, a feat that could only be performed against the Iowa Hawkeyes and Brian Ferentz.

So we have Minnesota off a HUGE win. We have MSU off a BEAT DOWN. This is a great buy low, sell high spot. This line 2 weeks ago is probably 4? To me, these teams are the same they were two weeks ago, Michigan State might be even slightly better. There’s no way in the world you could convince me to lay a touchdown with Minnesota. i like the value here with the dog once again. Give me the Spartans +7

Matchup/Trajectory Play: Arizona +3 vs. Oregon State: Arizona has been playing really good football as of late. Oregon State is a different team away from home. I like Arizona to not only win, but pull the outright upset. Their offense has played fantastic as of late. They’ve also improved significantly defensively. The key to this game will be the Arizona Offensive Line - they might be the best one in the Pac 12. Give me Arizona +3

Opinions:

BYU +21 @ Texas: Don’t love this one, but anything over 3 TDs just seems like too much, no matter who’s playing QB.

Kansas +8.5 vs. OU: I think Kansas has a real shot to win this game. But both teams are so bad defensively and so explosive offensively, that it’s hard to make this an official play. Too many ways that KU could hang in there for 3 full quarters and still not cover. Still like the Jayhawks here as an opinion, just not as an official play (They ALMOST made my list)

Arizona State +6 vs. Washington State: ASU might be the best 1-6 team I’ve ever seen. They play super hard. They are in most of the games they play. They had the undefeated Washington Huskies beat last week, and if it weren’t for a pick six, they probably pull the upset as 28+ point dogs. Give me ASU here, as they get the win OUTRIGHT against a team on the downslide in Wazzu and the fighting Mike Leaches.

ML DOG PARLAY: I’m weirdly good at these

Give me the Arizona schools tonight: Both later games, both live dogs. Weird things happen in the Pac 12 after dark

Arizona ML + Arizona State ML = It should pay around 4 to 1? I got it for $25 to win about $98

Let’s get a nice win here!!