College Football Best Bet: Conference Title Games
Author: Dylan Lieck | 11/30/23 | 3:33 P.M. CST
College Football Best Bet: Conference Title Games
Game: Alabama vs. Georgia (SEC TITLE)
Line: Georgia -6 (Opened -4)
Total: 53
Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA (Neutral)
Date: 12/2/23
Time: 3:00 P.M. CST
Official Pick: UNDER 53 (Play to 54.5)
Summary:
The reason I say play to 54.5 is because 52 is a very key number for totals in CFB, so if you are taking anything above 52 points, you are already through that key number of 52, then just take it at anything less than 3 points higher. Meaning 52.5-54.5 are pretty much the same number (not exactly but generally speaking 52 and 55 are more key than those in between it).
Overall I just think the market has reacted poorly to this game. Usually you will see me align my picks with the market 95%+ of the time. But I liked this when I saw the number open 56. I really thought it would get bet up higher than that, and yet it started to come down. I wanted to see how low it could get. I saw a 52.5 before buy back happened and I got in at 53. I think we sit 53.5 or 54 in most spots. Anyways, all of those numbers are WAY too low. Look these two offenses have been playing really good football, and neither defense has been close to the traditional Bama/Georgia games. This WILL be a high scoring game, you can bet on it, LITERALLY.
I know Bama squeaked by Auburn last week and didn’t look great offensively, but Auburn had been prepping for that game for 2 weeks straight. I think what Georgia will do is try to make Milroe beat them with his arm. However, as inaccurate as he is in the intermediate game, he’s gotten a lot better in the short and deep areas of the field. I’d be shocked to see him not have some success against a subpar Georgia defense. Georgia’s offense on the other hand, may be the best it’s been in years. They’ve been explosive throughout the season, going over 70% of their totals. I don’t see that changing here. Bama’s defense has been nothing to write home about. We saw Auburn have tons of success on the ground last week with a QB who literally cannot throw the ball. I think Georgia is going to have an absolute field day offensively. If you can get their point total at anything below 30.5 I think their team total is going to be somewhere in the 35-42 range. I do like Georgia to cover here, but I bet that at -4 early in the week and that number has gotten away from us. Let’s go with the total here. It’s going to be a shootout. So give me the OVER here and let’s cash one more ticket on this CFB season to go out with a bang, and another WINNING YEAR!!
Dylan’s Pick: Alabama vs. Georgia OVER 53 (play to 54.5)
