College Football Best Bets Week 10 (11/4/2023)
I cannot believe we are in WEEK TEN of college football already. Every year it seems we wait around for football to start, and then it finally does; and then we BLINK, and it’s over. We’ve only got a few more weeks remaining of the regular season and it’s starting to really heat up. The first CFB playoff rankings came out last week, and shockingly Ohio State was ranked as the top team in the country. I have a sneaking suspicion that the Buckeyes won’t even be in the playoff, but we’ll let Ryan Day have his moment for the next few weeks. This week we have some monster matchups with CFB Playoff implications. Let’s take a look a the betting slate for this week
BEST BETS
Best Bet of the Week No. 1: ARKANSAS +6.5 @ Florida (2 Units)
Now look, this line has moved a TON since I bet it, but I’m still going to give it out, because it hasn’t crossed through either of the ultra key numbers in CFB. I have 6.5 and it’s still sitting at 3.5 right now. Nonetheless, a full 3 point move is a lot, so play this one with caution if you are looking to back the Hogs.
This is just purely a spot play. Florida basically emptied the tank last week taking on Georgia, trying to stay in contention for the SEC East. Unfortunately they got stomped by the Bulldogs, and it really wouldn’t have mattered much if Florida played it’s best game of the season anyways, as they were just at a huge disadvantage. They failed to cover as 14.5 point dogs, and now they have to get back up on the horse and take on an Arkansas team that, well, has looked pretty awful. There’s no chance that anyone in that Florida locker room is getting “up” to play two-win Arkansas.
On the other side we’ve got the Hogs of Arkansas, who come in with just two wins all season. They are coming off their 6th straight loss, and a team that can’t seem to get things on track. To me though, Arkansas hit the bottom of the barrel two weeks ago when they lost to Mississippi State at home, despite only giving up 7 points. The offense only put up 3 total points the entire game, and the Hogs lost the game outright as 6 point favorites. However, when you look at the Hogs schedule, they have been very competitve in every game they’ve played this year. The BYU loss they led most of the way before giving it away late. Against LSU they led nearly the entire game, and damn near pulled the outright upset as 17 point dogs. A couple of bad TO’s derailed Arkansas against Texas A&M in a game that the Hogs led in the second half as well. Follow that up with a 7 point loss at Ole Miss (and a cover), before traveling to Tuscaloosa, where they had the ball with a chance to drive and BEAT ALABAMA ON THE ROAD!! After emptying the tank in Tuscaloosa for a game that might’ve saved their season, they then had to bounce back against a much worse Mississippi State team.
We’re getting them here off a bye, which in this case is a good thing, because they needed that time to get healthy and to make some changes on the offensive side of the ball schematically. I also LOVE that they get Florida off the Georgia game. And I love the fact that they’ve competed with, and had chances to beat teams much better than this Florida team (and that includes Ole Miss and Bama on the road). Lastly, I like that even though they have lost 6 games, they are still playing to make a bowl, and they MUST win this one to be Bowl Eligble. The rest of their schedule is managable up until the final game of the season at Mizzou. If they can get through this game, they still have a legit chance to get into a bowl. We’re going to get Arkansas’ best shot here - back the Hogs. LOVED Them at 6.5. Liked them a lot at +4 or better. At +3.5 I still like them, just not as much. I played this for TWO UNITS. If you get 3.5 play it for 1. If you can find a spot with +4 play it for 2 units.
PICK: Arkansas +6.5 (Play to +4 at 2 units, Play at +3.5, +3 at 1 Unit)
Best Bet No. 2: Iowa State -2.5 vs. Kansas (2 Units)
Again, this is just a spot play. We look at Kansas last week pulling off the biggest upset in their school’s history, defeating undefeated, #6 OU at home. It took an inspired effort by the Jayhawks, and it came down to the final play. If you didn’t watch the game, I can promise you that KU gave the Sooners their absolute best shot. Now you have to get up to go to Aimes Iowa at 6 P.M. on a Saturday night? Good luck.
Aimes is not only an extremely tough place to play, but the Cyclones are actually pretty good this year. Despite a poor start (as always), and a baffling loss to Ohio University, the Cyclones have now won 3 straight, and 4 of their last 5. They are playing much better football on both sides of the ball and they finally found a competent QB to replace Brock Purdy from a couple years ago.
Every box score you look at for ISU is accurate, meaning they did not get outgained or beaten in the box score and find a way to win based on the “luck factor” in the past 3 games. They’ve just legitimately been playing good football. Kansas is for sure playing well, but they’ve been not great on the road, and the last time the left Lawerence, their defense gave up damn near 40 points to Oki State and lost the game outright. Jason Bean is playing better, but he’s still not the most accurate QB and a clear step down from Jalon Daniels. Give me the Cyclones laying less than a FG here, while the public will be all over the Jayhawks
PICK: Iowa State -2.5 (Play at 2 Units)
Pick No. 3: Boise State +3 @ Fresno State (2 Units)
Fresno state comes in at 7-1 while Boise State comes in 4-4. But those scores are very deceiving. The Broncos have given multiple games away this season, including one a few weeks ago when they had a 99.9% chance to win with 4 minutes to go in the game, leading by 20. They blew that lead and lost the game. They also gave one away at Memphis in week 5, as they were going into score a Touchdown, already up 3. Instead of going for it on fourth and 1 from the Memphis 7 yard line, with a RB who has failed to be stopped in a 4th and 1 or shorter all year, they opted to kick a FG. The FG was blocked and returned for a TD for Memphis, and instead of going up 10, they went down 4. They went on to lose the game by 3. If those two games go the way of the Broncos they are 6-2.
On the other side Fresno State is 7-1, however those numbers lie significantly. They were outgained in total yards & yards per play in both of their two previous contests. They also had a lower success rate in both games, and yet they pulled off both wins, largely due to some fortunate breaks (and UNLV turning the ball over 4 times). When you look at the post-game win expectency for Fresno State in their previous two wins, they were Less than 15% and less than 10%. The odds of them winning both of those games was less than 2%, and yet they DID win both. If those games both go the way they should’ve, Fresno State is 5-3.
The reason I mention these games, is if Fresno State comes into this one at 5-3, off 2 straight losses, and Boise State comes into this game at 6-2, off 6 consecutive wins, what is this line? I can promise you it’s not 3 (or even 2.5 in some spots). I think it’s closer to 6 or 7. So to me, the reality is that these teams are much more equal than their records indicate. Boise State is a much better football team than their record indicates, and they’ve proven they can go on the road and really compete. Both games against Memphis and CSU, although they lost, they were in great position to win both. I don’t see the homefield of Fresno being much a factor here, and I think Boise not only stays within in the number but I think they win outright. Give me the Broncos catching 3
PICK: Boise State +3 @ Fresno State
Three More Official Plays:
Alabama -3 vs. LSU: Alabama at home, in a revenge spot here. Three just seems short to me. LSU is INCREDIBLE offensively. But they really haven’t played any great defenses. The one pretty good defense they faced was Florida State, and LSU was pretty much shut down in the second half of that game. Bama’s got the better defense by far. LSU’s defense has a flurry of injuries coming into this one, and as good as LSU’s offense has been, their defense has damn near been just that bad. I’m not sure how LSU finds stops in this one. Alabama should easily touch 35 in this one. They’ll find a way to get just enough stops at home to pull it out. Give me the Tide laying a short number at home.
Michigan State +3 vs. Nebraska: Michigan State is FUCKING AWFUL, and Nebraska is playing much better football. So why is the line only Nebraska -3 when MSU has been nothing short of putrid this season? Because Nebraska is still bad, and their passing offense is very, very average. MSU is good enough to stop the run against this team. But honestly, CFB is just weird, and this just feels like a spot that MSU finally gets a win. Nebraska is due for a loss, while MSU is due for a win. Give me the Spartans +3 but I think they win the game outright.
Texas State -120 vs. Ga Southern: I liked this one early in the week and I got it at +2, but I still like it ML now as a short favorite. This line moved 4 full points (albeit through zero). Texas State gets Ga Southern in a great spot as they are coming off playing their rivals, and getting bowl eligible. Texas State is one of 3 FBS teams to never play in a bowl game. This game would be their sixth win and get them Bowl Eligible. I like the Bobcats to get it done here at home. Give me the Bobcats ML in a SAN MARCOS SPECIAL!!
All plays 2U’s
MONEYLINE PARLAY OF THE WEEK (2 Team ML Dog Parlay)
We’re going to parlay two of the teams we already bet here and take:
Michigan State Spartans +135
Boise State Broncos: +125
Pays 4.5 to 1
Opinions: DID NOT BET ANY OF THESE - these are just my leans
Old Dominion PK
Alabama/LSU Over 61.5
Texas -3 (if it gets that low)
Illinois +2
UCLA -2.5
GT +2
UGA/Mizzou OVER 55.5
Georgia State/JMU UNDER 53.5
ND -3
Ole Miss -3
