NFL Best Bet & Picks For Sunday (10/14/23)

One BEST BET for this NFL Sunday: Had a rough one last week, but we always bounce back.

Game: New England Patriots @ Las Vegas Raiders

Weather: Dome (Indoor)

Summary:

This is an UGLY game, but those are often the games you can find value in the NFL. The New England Patriots have been AWFUL the past couple weeks, and that’s putting it nicely. They we’re blanked last week, 31-0 against the New Orleans Saints. The week before, they got smacked, 38-3 against the Cowboys. It was the two worst losses in the storied history of Bill Belicek as an NFL Head Coach. So we will start by saying that this is a great buy low spot on the Patriots. It should tell you what Las Vegas thinks of the Las Vegas Raiders, considering New England was outscored 69-3 the last two weeks and this is a road game for the Patriots, and yet they are still just a 3 point road dog.

Coaching:

Let’s start with the coaching matchup. No matter the outcome the past two weeks, the Patriots still have the best coach in NFL history on their sideline. Even if you believe he’s lost a bit of his step, I believe he’s still a solid NFL coach. I think back to the Pats/Dolphins game this season, when he dialed up a Bill-special, sneaking a guy out by the sideline, and running him in late to sprint in and block a field goal. It was something that nobody had ever seen before, and it was a heck of a coaching move that actually could’ve influenced the outcome of the game.

On the other side, we have Josh McDaniels. In my opinion, not only is Josh McDaniels the worst NFL head coach in the entire NFL today, but he’s the second worst coach in the history of the NFL (1st being Nathaniel Hackett). McDaniels has made bad coaching decision after bad coaching decision, and he’s really hurt his team that is already lacking talent. Against the Steelers week 3, McDaniels’ Raiders had the ball trailing by 8 with under 4 minutes to play. On a fourth and 5 he decided to opt for a long field goal. After making the kick, a penalty on the Steelers gave the Raiders a first down. The Raiders then got down to the Pittsburgh 9 yard line, and on fourth and 4, he decided to once again kick a field goal, down by 8, this time with under 3 minutes to go. They would go onto lose that game. Against the Chargers, he decided not to challenge a clear TD that DeVante Adams scored, and instead went for a quick QB sneak on 3rd and goal that got stuffed. An automatic touchdown turned into a 4th and goal on the 2. Then last week, up 4 points late in the game, McDaniels did it again. It was fourth and one, and one yard would end the game. Instead, McDaniels settled for a 52 yard field goal from a kicker that had already missed earlier in the night. The kick was missed, and the Packers were given a shot to go win the game. He’s made bad decision after bad decision, and it’s just clear as day that he is an incompetent head coach. So whether or not this game wins, I know that going in, I’m getting 3 points with two teams of equal talent, and I’m getting the far superior coach (both in terms of gameplanning, as well as in game management)

Additionally, you look at what Las Vegas wants to do: Get the ball to Devante Adams. Last week you had a Packers team pretty much take Adams out of the game for almost a full 60 minutes. That was a packers team that got LIT UP the previous week by Jared Goff and the Lions. They couldn’t cover ANYONE and yet that same Packers defense locked down the best WR in the game. Now you get Bill Belicek, who is NOTORIOUS for taking away the opponents number one option. Bill is going to have a good gameplan for taking away Adams. And Gorroppolo will be forced to make plays, finding other receivers. Taking away Adams really gave the Raiders issues offensively last week.

Lastly, the Raiders have been abismal running the ball this season. Josh Jacobs, who led the NFL in rushing yards last year, struggled to get going all night. He’s been incredibly inefficient all season, averaging less than 3 yards per carry. I believe the Patriots already will have a good defensive plan here, but add to the fact that the Raiders are going to be one-dimensional, and predictable offensively? It’s a no brainer that this is advantage Pats. It doesn’t mean they for sure win the game, but again, it’s another edge for the Pats in this game.

Trend:

I don’t like betting on trends alone, but I do like when they strongly support a side I already like, and this one is one that has been profitable over the years. Teams who score 7 points or less back to back weeks, are 68% against the spread over the past 25 years the following week. I also think that trend is more likely to be accurate considering it’s based on performance. As I said before, NFL teams are never as good as they look at their peak, and they are never as bad as they look at their worst. And the Pats have looked their worst the past two weeks.

Matchup:

The Patriots do get some key guys back from injury in the secondary and that will help them defensively. They also had two offensive linemen out last week that are likely to be able to go on Sunday.

The key matchup is going to be Mac Jones against the Raiders pass rush. If Max Crosby can get to Mac Jones, then yes it could go the Raiders way. But I refuse to believe that Bill won’t scheme for that. I think he’s going to have some good protection packages, along with the fact that they get their starting tackle opposite Crosby back. I don’t think Max is going to live in the backfield like he did on Monday night against the Raiders.

The Raiders defense has also been really average. They are in the bottom 10 in the league in defensive efficiency, and this is exactly what the doctor ordered for the Pats. They’ve played a brutal schedule (2nd toughest schedule in the league compared to the Raiders who are middle of the back in S.O.S.)

Lastly the QB matchup. Yes Mac Jones has been bad the last two weeks, and yes he does not look good. But let’s remember that he looked pretty solid the first 3 weeks against some pretty good teams (Eagles, Dolphins, Jets). Additionally, when you look at the comparison, Jimmy G is slightly better overall, but when the 2 are under pressure Mac Jones is significantly better. Jimmy G is the worst QB in the league when he is pressured. Additionally Mac’s big time throw rate is significantly higher than Jimmy G. The key is going to be taking care of the ball. If Mac takes care of the ball, the Pats win this game outright by 7. If he turns it over, we could be in for another ugly one.

PICK:

Again, in an even matchup, I’ll take the points. We’re going to roll with the Pats here, as disgusting as that is to say. But give me New England. The Raiders played a nationally televised game and won last week. The Pats off back to back 30+ point losses. Again, we buy low and sell high, and this is a classic example. The Raiders don’t deserve to lay points against anyone in this league.

OFFICIAL PICK: New England Patriots +3