College Football Picks Week 6 (10/7/23)

Saturday Picks:

It’s been a super busy week with the launch of my sports podcast, so I am posting this late at night on Friday Night. I don’t have too much time to give in depth breakdowns of my picks so I’ll run through my picks, opinions, and a fun parlay at the end.

OFFICIAL PICKS:

I’ve got 3 official picks for this Saturday. I normally don’t play totals as much as I play sides, but there are two totals I really love this weekend.

1) Kentucky @ Georgia UNDER 48.5: This is my favorite play of the week. I bet it super early in the week, so I got it at 48.5, and it currently sits 47 as I’m writing this. If you look at Kentucky’s final scores, you will see that they have yet to score less than 28 points this season. Not ideal for an under right? Well let’s look at their schedule. Before last week, they faced Ball State, Eastern Kentucky, Akron, and Vanderbilt (one of the easiest schedules of defenses of any power 5 team through 4 weeks). Then last week, it looked like another offensive explosion from the Wildcats, putting up 33 against a ranked Florida team. However, for one, this Florida team is a different group at home compared to on the road (last week was in Kentucky). Utah has been one of the worst offenses of all P5 teams through 5 weeks, and Florida gave up 24 points to that same offense week 1 on the road.

Secondly, Kentucky has LIVED on the explosive play. When you look at Kentucky’s down to down success rate, they’ve actually really struggled: They are outside the top 70 in both rush & pass success rate, and 98th in rush yards. This means that although they ran for nearly 10 yards/rush last week, the reality is they busted a number of big runs that skewed the numbers. And, that’s exactly what’s happened all season.

To add to the argument for the under, both teams are in the top 15 in pass success rate defense (UK is 13th, Georgia is 3rd) - so neither team should be able to find great success through the air. Georgia isn’t great against the run, but they are BY FAR better than any team UK has played this season. The step up in class for the Wildcats will really hurt their offense. On the other hand Georgia has not blown anyone away this season with their offensive attack, and Kentucky’s defense is solid enough to keep Georgia from having an offensive outburst here.

Lastly, both teams are towards the bottom of the country in seconds per play, meaning they play at a much slower pace than average. UK is 79th in seconds per play, while Georgia is 121st (one of the slowest teams in the country). I think this is going to be a physical, grinded out, slow tempo game, which is the perfect type of game for an under in this spot.

Side Note: This got STEAMED under by multiple groups - get the best number. I would play it under 48 or better. Anything lower than that is probably too much value lost, unless you want to play it smaller

2) TCU -6 @ Iowa State:

I believe oddsmakers are overreacting to the loss last week to West Virginia. I don’t think TCU is all that great, but this is an Iowa State team who has played really poorly offensively through much of the season so far. The weakness of the TCU team is their defense, but I don’t believe Iowa State has enough to exploit the Horned Frogs in this spot. It’s also a HUGE game for the Horned Frogs, who are in danger of dropping their 3rd game already. They still have K-State, OU, and Texas on the schedule, and two of those games are on the road. If they drop this one they are looking at a possible 6-6 season, which would really hurt the recruiting momentum they had following the end of the National Title Run last season.

3) Syracuse @ North Carolina Under 60

This game comes down to a few things. One Syracuse isn’t a great offensive team, and we saw that last week at home against Clemson. Now you have a struggling offense, going on the road after a big emotional game (let down spot). You also look at UNC, who had an offensive outburst last week against Pittsburgh. However, this is a big step up in class for them as Syracuse’s defense ranks top 10 nationally in defensive efficiency. North Carolina does get their top WR back here, but he hasn’t played a game in a month, and it’s hard to think he’s going to come in and make this UNC offense explosive all of the sudden against a solid Syracuse Defense. I think both teams play slow enough and run the ball enough to keep the clock moving, and get under the number of 60. I do think they will get close to the number, but I like this one staying relatively low scoring .

Opinions:

These are not to be played for much, if at all. They are just informed picks that I like that didn’t make the card this week.

1) UAB +3 vs. South Florida

2) Texas A&M +.5 (1st Half) vs. Bama

3) California +8 vs. Oregon State

4) Washington State +3.5 @ UCLA

5) Missouri +6 vs. LSU

6) Eastern Michigan @ Ball State Under 44.5

7) Arizona State +4 vs. Colorado

8) Purdue +2.5 @ Iowa

Moneyline Dog Parlay

This is to be played for fun, or no more than a few bucks. It is a 3-teamer and it pays roughly 11 to 1

1) Purdue +115 over Iowa

2) Washington State +145

3) Boston College +115 @ Army

NFL Play of the Week (10/1/23)

The play of the week in the NFL will be a post in which I give my best bet for the NFL each week. It will always be either a straight bet or a 2-team teaser. This week we will take a 2-team teaser for our first Best Bet of the year. Let’s take a look at the teaser for this week.

Week 3 Best Bet: 2-Team 6-Point Teaser = Philadelphia Eagles -3 | Kansas City Chiefs -2.5

Summary:

The Eagles come into this game undefeated. They are also coming off one of their better offensive performances of the year. The defense has been elite in forcing turnovers, leading the league in that category. Although Jalen Hurts hasn’t played well this season, he still has some dangerous weapons on the outside in Devanta Smith and AJ Brown. Additionally, the Eagles rushing attack has been really good the past few weeks, as the offensive line has looked as dominant as they did a year ago.

Even though the Commanders started 2-0, they beat a bad Arizona team by a narrow margin in game one, followed by a 2 point win against a very bad Denver Broncos team who is looking worse by the week. Week 3 the Commanders came back to reality, losing by 30+ points at home to the Buffalo Bills. I believe that week 3 really exposed the Commanders as a fraud 2-0 team, and the Eagles are the far superior team in this matchup. The Eagles did fall to the Commanders when they played in Phili last season, but I think that is all the more reason to believe the Eagles will not take this game lightly. I think Phili gets the win here easy. They likely cover the real number of 9. I wish we could tease this through the key number of 3, to 2.5, but we will settle for -3.

The second matchup is pretty simple here. You have a Chiefs team who already suffered an upset early in the season (week 1 at home vs. the Lions). Since then, the Chiefs got back Chris Jones on the interior of their D-Line, and they have looked really good defensively since. This might be the best Chiefs defense we’ve seen in the Patrick Mahomes era. The other side features the New York Jets. Yes the Jets got the win in Primetime last time they faced the Bills on Sunday night. But this is clearly a mismatch for the Jets. There is no way anyone is backing the Jets and Zach Wilson against a competent NFL defense. I don’t care where the game is played.

So we will tease the Eagles to -3 and the Chiefs to -2.5, & that’s our best bet of the week in the NFL for week 3.

Notre Dame @ Duke Pick (9/30/23)

Notre Dame @ Duke Pick (9/30/23)

Saturday College Football Matchup 9/30/23: Notre Dame @ Duke

Line: Notre Dame -6 | Over/Under: 52.5

Location: Wallace Wad Stadium, Durham, North Carolina (Capacity: 40,004)

Kickoff Time: 7:30 P.M. Eastern Time

Weather At Kickoff: 71 Degrees | Wind = 5 MPH, Gusts up to 10 MPH

TV Network: ABC

Game Summary:

Notre Dame travels to Durham, North Carolina on Saturday night to take on the surprise team of the college football season so far, the Duke Blue Devils. The Blue Devils are known for being a powerhouse on the hardwood, but they are out to prove that they are more than just a basketball school. Last year the Blue Devils finished with 9 wins for the just the second time since 1940. Meanwhile, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish are no stranger to success on the football field in the recent past. The Fighting Irish come into this one off a heartbreaking loss last week, at home against their rival, Ohio State. College game day is in Durham for this one, so let’s take a look and see if this game can live up to the ESPN hype.

Last year the Blue Devils came into the season without much in terms of expectations. Riley Leonard had different plans, as he burst onto the scene as one of the top QBs in the ACC. As a sophomore, Leonard threw for just under 3,000 yard, completing 64% of his passes, while throwing 20 TDs and just 6 picks. Maybe equally as impressive, though, was Leonard’s legs. He ran for nearly 700 yards on 5.6 yards per carry and a whopping 13 TDs on the ground. Leonard was absolutely dynamic last season, and not much as changed in 2023. Now Leonard has not been required to do all that much in the passing game so far this season, largely because Duke has absolutely dominated all four of their opponents. However, he is yet to throw an interception through 4 starts. His legs have been even better than they were last season, already rushing for 238 yards and 4 TDs.

The Irish come into this game coming of an emotional loss at home last week to the Ohio State Buckeyes. The Irish

Irish Mentality After Last Week’s Loss

This is an incredibly tough spot for the Irish. They played a night game last week against one of the more physical teams in the country. Not only was the game against Ohio State a game that mirrored football in the 1980s, but Notre Dame also lost it in heartbreaking fashion. The Irish had about 10 chances to end that game at home in South Bend last week. They had the ball with under 3 minutes to play, and after two easy runs for first downs, they were one first down away from a win. Once again, in step Gerad Parker, who threw up all over himself the final 3 plays he called. After a bad first down run call, Parker decided to call a screen pass. Hartman not only threw an incompletion to stop the clock, but it almost ended up being an interception. Then on third and long, after you have committed to being aggressive and trying to get the first down by throwing on second and long, Parker goes back to being conservative and runs the ball on third down, leading to a Notre Dame punt. The series of events not only gave Ohio State the ball back with plenty of time to mount a game winning drive, but the incompletion on second down allowed Ohio State to hang onto their last timeout. That timeout ended up being the difference in the game.

All of that hate for Gerard Parker aside, the Notre Dame defense, who was great all night against the Buckeyes, had more than it’s fair share of chances to end the game on the final drive. The Irish dropped two interceptions on poor passes by Kyle McCord (OSU QB), one of which hit a ND DB in the hands and should’ve been an easy pick. Then after McCord was flagged for intentional grounding, the Buckeyes found themselves outside the Irish 20 yard-line, facing a 3rd and 19, with no timeouts left and just 17 seconds remaining in the game. All the Irish had to do was tackle Ohio State in bounds short of the first down marker and the game was over. The Irish had success bringing pressure all night against the Buckeyes, especially on the final drive. Instead, Marcus Freeman decided to rush three for one of the first times all night. The result was a completion for Ohio state of 20 yards, which included a first down, temporarily stopping the clock and allowing the Buckeyes to spike the ball. The Buckeyes would end up getting in the endzone of the final play of the game. But even allowing a 3rd and 19 wasn’t the worst part. The worst part was that on the final two plays from the 1-yard line, with possible National Championship hopes on the line, the Irish had just 10 men on the field. Yup, that’s right. TWICE.

This is mostly troubling to me, because I believe if I were a player on that team, I would not believe in my coach whatsoever. Now the Irish have to go on the road, to a hostile environment, and they’ve had all week to think about the fact that their coach couldn’t even get the right number of dudes on the field on the biggest play of the game. It’s not just a bad look for the ND head coach, but it makes me question how his players will respond this week.

Notre Dame’s Lack of Explosiveness

Notre Dame comes into the game with one of the nation’s best QBs, as discussed above, in Sam Hartman. Unfortunately for Irish fans, they haven’t gotten to see a high powered offense this season, but it is not Sam Hartman’s fault. Gerad Parker (ND Offensive Coordinator) has had this offense stuck in the mud from the start of this season. When you look at Hartman’s numbers, they are really good, but when you dig into the stats, you really see issues with this offense, and they were on full display last week against Ohio State. Over the course of the first four games, Hartman has attempted just 15 passes of 20 or more yards. That’s wild when you think about the quality of opponent ND has faced thus far (other than Ohio State), not to mention the fact that Hartman pushed the ball downfield more than any FBS QB last season.

On the other side of the ball, the Duke defense has yet to allow a single completion of 20+ yards all season. Duke’s defense as a whole has been outstanding against the pass, ranking 4th in the country in Passing Success Rate allowed. As mentioned before, Duke hasn’t played the toughest schedule thus far, but they do have a good data point in week one as they absolutely shut down the Clemson Tigers. It’s hard to imagine a team like Notre Dame, with that little offensive explosiveness, going on the road in a hostile environment and having to win by two field goals to cover against an elite pass defense. You would think, unless the Irish just have a historic day on the ground, that the Blue Devils can stay in this game going into the fourth quarter.

Pick

Overall, the Fighting Irish come into this game in a terrible spot, facing one of the more experienced teams in the country (17 returning starters this year), who have yet to lose a game this season. This is the chance for the Blue Devils to prove to everyone that they are a real player in college football. The Irish, on the other hand, have had an entire week to think about how they let one slip through their hands. Moreover, they have had the entire week to think about how their coach likely cost them the game. I believe the Blue Devils will be super up for this matchup, and I think they have a real chance to pull the outright upset over the Irish. Let’s take the points though. Take Duke +6. The line has fluttered from 5.5 to 6. Try to get the best number as always, but we will be backing the Blue Devils in this one.

Official Pick: Duke Blue Devils +6 vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Units: 1

Boise State @ Memphis Pick (9/30/23)

Boise State @ Memphis Pick (9/30/23)

Saturday College Football Matchup 9/30/23: Boise State @ Memphis

Line: Memphis -3 | Over/Under: 58.5

Location: Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Capacity: 58,325)

Kickoff Time: 3:00 P.M. Eastern Time

Weather At Kickoff: 90 Degrees, Mostly Sunny | Wind = 8 MPH, Gusts up to 9 MPH

TV Network: ESPN2

Game Summary:

We have a battle between the Mountain West and the American Conference on the docket in this matchup, as the Boise State Broncos will be taking on the Memphis Tigers. Memphis steps into this one off their first loss of the season, as they dropped a tough one last week to the Missouri Tigers. Despite the loss, the Tigers hung with Mizzou for 4 quarters, eventually falling 27-34. On the other hand we have the Boise State Broncos, far removed from their Rose Bowl days, who come in 2-2, but currently on a 2-game winning streak after their narrow 3 point victory over San Diego State last week. Let’s dive in and take a look at which team has the edge in this Saturday afternoon matchup.

As mentioned before, the Memphis Tigers come into this one 3-1 (1-0 in American), with wins over Bethune Cookman, Arkansas State, and Navy. None of their wins are against any sort of stiff competition, but they took care of business in all three games, before falling to a superior Missouri Tigers team last week. 6’3 junior QB Seth Henigan (#2) has led the charge on the offensive side of the ball for the Tigers so far this season. The Tigers have bolstered the 26th ranked passing offense in terms of Passing Success Rate through the first third of the season. Henigan has already thrown for over a thousand yards this season through four games, averaging just under 280 yards per contest. Henigan has thrown for 8 touchdowns and rushed for 3 more, however he does have 5 picks on the year, and he needs to do a better job taking care of the football if Memphis wants to have a shot to win the American conference. Although Memphis hasn’t had the same success on the ground their offense (101st in Rush Success Rate & 98th in Line Yards), the Tigers offense largely depends on success through the air.

Defensively, the Tigers have been surprisingly good. They rank 4th in Passing Success Rate allowed, and 16th in havoc rate (shows pressure put on the opposing QB), and 17th in Quality Drives allowed. They definitely have not faced a tough schedule of offenses thus far, but they’ve definitely exceeded expectations.

On the other hand the Broncos come into this one off two straight wins, however they narrowly escaped last week against a below average San Diego State team, and their only other win came against an FCS opponent. The Broncos offense is pretty simple. It relies on one thing: Running the ball. If the Broncos can run the ball effectively, they can control the clock, make it a phyiscal game, and have a shot to win it. If they can’t run the ball, and they are forced into known passing situations, they are really going to struggle. The Broncos are 20th in the country in Rush Success Rate, but a horrific 114th in Pass Success Rate. 6’6 sophomore QB Taylen Green has really struggled in the passing game. He’s thrown for under 200 yards a game in their first four contests, completing less than 54% of his passes, and throwing just as many interceptions as touchdowns (4 each). One area Green has excelled is with his legs. Despite taking 10 sacks (rush yards are deducted on sacks in college), Green has rushed 27 times for 128 yards (4.7 YPC) and 2 TDs. He will absolutely have to utilize his legs in this one if the Broncos want to have a shot to pull the road upset.

Boise State Defense:

The Boise State defense has been absolutely horrible so far this season. They did face one of the best offenses (if not the best) in the country week one, in the Washington Huskies, however their other three opponents were San Diego State, North Dakota, and Central Florida. None of those offenses are projected to finish inside the top 50 in the country in efficiency. The biggest issue for the Broncos defensively is that they don’t have any strengths: They are horrible against both the run and the pass. They come into this matchup ranked 125th in Rush Success Rate Allowed and 114th in Pass Success Rate allowed. Both of those numbers are out of 132 qualified teams, so we are talking about one of the worst defenses (metrically) in the entire country. But, the main issue is the pass defense. This matchup is going to feature an opponent who comes in with a Top 25 Passing Offense and a very talented QB.

Last week the Broncos faced off against the San Diego State Aztecs. The Aztecs came in with one of the worst passing offenses for a non-option team in the country. Through 5 games, their QB Jalen Mayden, who was converted to safety his freshmen year due to his inability to perform as a QB, had thrown for over 200 yards just once in 4 games. Despite SDSU’s issues throwing the ball, they allowed Mayden to complete over 71% of his passes, and throw for a touchdown (and no picks). Now they go on the road for the second straight week, and take on one of the better QBs in college football. This is a terrible matchup for a Boise State secondary that really struggles to cover WRs (121st in coverage out of 132 teams).

Memphis Stopping the Run

It’s pretty clear that the Broncos are at a significant disadvantage on the defensive side of the ball. We also know that the Broncos cannot throw the ball a lick. So how do they hang in this game? The only possible way for the Broncos to pull the road upset would be to have a tremendous rushing day. Now Memphis has not been good against the run this season (62nd in Rush Success Rate, 86th in Line Yards), however those numbers are a bit skewed considering they played a Navy team who runs the option in week 3.

Additionally, despite the success of the defense against the pass, last week the reason the Tigers gave up 34 points to Missouri was largely due to Missouri’s passing offense. They averaged double digit yards per pass in the contest, and they needed every bit of it to hold off Memphis at home. It seems almost impossible for Boise State to find success through the air in this game, and that seemed to be the recipe to beat Memphis last week.

Pick:

Overall, the Memphis Tigers are the far superior team here. I don’t like taking favorites when the line seems to be a bit short, and that is what we have here. However, I think the line is just wrong in this case. I make this game 5.5 in my power rankings, and thus I’m getting 2.5 points of value laying the 3 here. Additionally, the Tigers are coming off a loss, traveling back home to face a team that is not nearly as good as the team they faced last week. It feels like a bounce back spot for Memphis, who has still yet to play their best football of the season. If Memphis plays up to it’s capabilities they will win this game by two touchdowns. If the don’t, I still believe they will have a good chance to pull this one out late and cover the short number. Laying short favorites isn’t my favorite thing to do, but this is too good to pass up. I’m backing the Memphis Tigers -3 in a bounce back spot at home.

Official Pick: Memphis Tigers -3 vs. Boise State Broncos

Units: 1

Baylor @ Central Florida Pick (9/30/23)

Saturday College Football Matchup 9/30/23: Baylor @ Central Florida

Line: Central Florida -10 | Over/Under: 57

Location: FBC Mortgage Stadium, Orlando, Florida (Capacity (44,206)

Kickoff Time: 3:30 P.M. Eastern Time

Weather At Kickoff: 84 Degrees, Sunny | Wind = 15 MPH, Gusts up to 29 MPH

TV Network: FS1

Game Summary:

Baylor comes into this matchup off an incredibly rough start to the season, coming into this game with just one win and three losses. The first game of the season the Bears faced off against a Texas State team who had won a combined 10 games in the past 3 seasons. Despite the difference in program pedigree, The Bears struggled mightily, especially on defense. Texas State racked up 441 yards of total offense and on their way to putting up 42 points and knocking off the bears by double digits (42-31). The Bears especially struggled with the pass, allowing just under 300 yards, but more alarmingly they allowed 9.8 yards per pass to a team with a QB who is not known for his passing prowess.

The Bears next 3 games weren’t all that much better, going 2-1 in their last 3 games, with their lone win coming against an FCS team in Rhode Island in game 2. Most of the issues for the Bears have come on the defensive end, which is surprising given head coach Dave Arranda’s defensive background. Nonetheless, the Bears were absolutely dominated by the Longhorns last week in Austin. Baylor gave up 328 yards passing on just 25 attempts to the Horns (a staggering 13.1 yards per pass), and this was facing Quinn Ewers for most of the game. Ewers threw for just 131 the week before against Wyoming. The Bears were never in the game, did not score an offensive touchdown, and failed to cover as 17 point dogs, falling 6-32 to the Horns. The Bears rush defense hasn’t been much better. Even against Rhode Island, an FCS team with zero passing ability, the Bears allowed 5 yards per carry. It’s fair to say there is more than cause for concern in Waco at this moment.

On the other side we have a Central Florida team coming in at 3-1 (0-1 in conference). The Knights come in searching for their first ever Big 12 Conference win, after falling last week on the road to a solid Kansas State team, 31-44. The Knights have largely leaned on their run game through the first four games (60% Run | 40% Pass). As a team they have carried the ball 175 times for 1,041 yards (5.9 YPC), and 11 TDs. They’ve largely leaned on a pair of senior RBs, Johnny Richardson and RJ Harvey. The two have carried the ball a combined 91 times for 572 yards, 6.3 yards per carry, and 5 rushing touchdowns. One important thing to keep an eye on in this matchup though is in the passing game, with the health of John Rhy Plumlee in question. Plumlee was injured in the second game of the season and has missed the last two games. However, Timmy McClain (backup QB) has actually performed better in Plumlee’s absence. He’s thrown for 1 yard per pass more than Plumlee, 1 more touchdown, and 3 less interceptions (Plumlee has a negative TD to INT ratio at 3 TDs to 4 Picks).

On paper this matchup clearly favors the Knights, and the number opening at 11.5 makes a lot of sense when you factor in that the Bears got absolutely smacked by the Longhorns next week, their lone win is against an FCS team, and this is going to be their first true road game of the season. Meanwhile the Knights come in with just one loss, and although they lost to K-State last week, the game was close for much of the contest, despite the starting QB not playing.

All that said, this is a prime “Buy Low” spot for Baylor if you are comfortable backing a team in their first true road game. Nobody is giving the Bears a chance in this game, coming in as double digit underdogs against a solid football team in Central Florida. But let’s dig into why the Bears actually have a shot in this contest.

Baylor Injuries

Over the course of it’s first 4 games, the Bears have had some bad injury luck. During the week 1 upset, one bright spot was the play of QB Blake Shapen. Shapen took a lot of heat last season for his less than stellar performance, but you have to give him credit in game one. He looked much improved, albeit against a less than elite defense. Shapen returns this week, but whether Shapen is as good as he performed in week one is irrelevant: he’s a MAJOR upgrade either way. In stepped Sawyer Robertson in Shapen’s absence, a Mississippi State transfer. There’s no nice way to say it: Robertson was awful in his 3 starts for the Bears. In 3 starts, Robertson was 48/97, completing less than 50% of his passes. He threw for just 670 yards total, along with 1 touchdown and 4 interceptions. The get back of Shapen in this spot is absolutely massive for the Bears, if nothing else because Robertson was so bad.

Shapen isn’t the only one returning from injury this week. The Bears also get back some key pieces in the secondary. 3 CBs who were out last week against the Longhorns will be back this game. And, 6 total players return from injury in this game. In other words, Baylor is going into this game the healthiest it has been all season. In that aspect, Baylor is definitely in good shape.

Central Florida’s Pass Game:

The basic numbers show that Central Florida’s pass game has been elite this season. They have thrown for nearly 11 yards per pass, and they are 21st in the country in pass success rate. However, these stats are based on just a 4 game sample size, with 2 of those games coming against an FCS team (Villanova) and quite possibly the worst team in the FBS (Kent State). When. you look at the game against Kansas State, the pass game really wasn’t all that effective down-to-down. The Knights had just a 44% passing success rate against K-State, and McClain completed just 14/24 passes. They heavily relied on the explosive pass, generating 5 total completions of 20+ yards. Additionally, the Knights offense did put up 31 points on K-State, however 7 of those were on a late, meaningless touchdown.

Although Baylor has been horrific so far this year against the pass, they did hold a bad Utah passing game in check for most of the game at home in game two, and as mentioned before they are getting 3 key secondary pieces back for this game. Because of this, I don’t think Central Florida will have as much success as one would think based on the numbers. Additionally, one area the Knights have really struggled since Plumlee went down is sacks allowed. Negative plays have hurt this offense. Moreover, the Knights are just 61st in Havoc allowed on the season, and that includes 2 games with the very mobile Plumlee. If the Bears can manufacture some pressure in this game (which they should be able to do), you have to believe the Central Florida offense won’t be able to move the ball as well as they have against some lesser opponents this season.

Jobs on the Line

Lastly, one key aspect to throw in here is the gravity of the situation for Dave Arranda. A lot of very well respected football minds think very highly of Arranda. In his first year at Baylor he took a team with a projected win total of 6 games and won the Big 12. However, since then the Bears have been struggle city, there are a number of boosters who are not happy with the performance of the football team, and it seems that Arranda has been clearly placed on the hot seat in Waco.

When you look at the situation this could not be a bigger game for the Bears. Realistically, this game could be the time for the Bears to turn their season around, or it could be the game where Arranda loses the team. Starting 1-4, the Bears can almost guarantee missing a bowl game. However, if they were able to steal this one on the road, the next four games on the schedule are very winnable (vs. TTU, @ Cinci, vs. ISU, vs. Houston). What looks like a dumpster fire of a season could easily be turned around in one foul swoop. Because of this, you have to expect we are going to get the Bears best shot in this spot.

Pick:

Overall, I like the Bears in this spot. The improving health of the team, the return of their starting QB, and the gravity of the game for the coaching staff all combine to make Baylor a live dog in this spot. The Bears know their season is on the line here after the 1-3 start, and I have a feeling they know their coach’s job is on the line too. I think we see Baylor’s absolute best shot here, and I think Shapen delivers in a big way. I’ll take the Bears +10. I will say the one thing that gives me pause about making this a bigger play is the fact that it’s Baylor’s first true road game of the season. However, I think the factors pointing in Baylor’s favor here strongly outweigh the fact that this game is in Orlando. It’s also an afternoon kickoff, which is a significantly less crazy environment than a night game.

Full disclosure, I did get this at +11.5, but with the official announcement of Blake Shapen playing Thursday, we’ve seen this number dip to 10, and even as low as 9 in some spots. I’m going to grade this one at +10, but shop around and try to find the best number.

Official Pick: Baylor Bears +10 @ Central Florida

Units: 1

Louisville @ NC State Pick (9/29/23)

Friday Night Football Matchup 9/29/23: Louisville @ NC State

Line: Louisville -3.5 | Over/Under: 55.5

Location: Carter Finley Stadium (NC State Home Stadium)

Weather At Kickoff: 76 Degrees, Possible Lightning | Wind = 6 MPH, Gusts up to 14 MPH

Game Summary:

NC State has not looked great this year posting a 3-1 record, but with 2 unimpressive wins against Virginia and UCONN. In game 1 against a very bad UCONN team the Wolfpack struggled to pull away at home, prevailing 24-14. Their most recent game was even more troubling, as the Wolfpack squeaked by Virginia on a last second field goal; a Virginia team that has yet to win a game this year. Their lone loss came at home to Notre Dame 24-45, a game that the Fighting Irish thoroughly outplayed the Wolf Pack. That said, the game against Notre Dame was closer than the final score indicated. The Wolf Pack hung with the Fighting Irish for 3 quarters, but fell apart in the final quarter. Overall, nobody is picking NC State to win the ACC after 4 games. They look to be a middle of the road team in their conference.

On the other side we’ve got the Louisville Cardinals coming in at 4-0. The Cardinals have yet to play a true road game this season, although they have played two games away from their home stadium. The Cardinals are ranked 116th in Strength of Schedule through 4 games, and of the 4 opponents they’ve played, not a single one is an FBS team with a winning record (at time of writing). When you look at the Cardinals, on the surface, you see that they beat a pretty decent Georgia Tech team in their first game by 5 points, on a neutral field. However, that score does not tell the whole story. Anyone who watched that game saw that the Yellow Jackets of Georgia Tech thoroughly outplayed the Cardinals for 3 full quarters, and looked to be the better team. Unfortunately for GT, they threw up all over themselves in the fourth quarter, and had to score a late touchdown just to cover the spread as 9.5 point dogs. Against Indiana, the Cardinals got out to a 21-0 lead and looked to be in control of the game. However, Indiana stormed back, cutting the deficit to 7, and at one point had the ball trailing 14-21 with a chance to tie the game. The Cardinals were able to pull out the victory, however it was another unimpressive performance.

When you break this game down the numbers clearly point in the direction of Louisville. They have the better offense by far. The Cardinals are averaging 305 yards passing per game compared to just 215 for the Wolf Pack. Even more impressively, the Cardinals have rushed for nearly 238 yards per game, compared to just 167 for the Wolf Pack. Neither defense is anything to write home about. Both teams are pretty good against the run, albeit against poor competition. NC State is slightly better against the pass so far this season. Brennan Armstrong (NCST QB) has not been good this year throwing for just under 215 yards a game, 60% completion, and 5 TDs to 4 Interceptions. Armstrong’s struggles have been one of the main issues in NC State’s offensive issues, but his legs are an intangible that could Louisville’s defense some issues. The Cardinals allowed Haynes King (GT QB) to rush for nearly 8 yards per carry, when factoring out sacks. Despite most of the numbers and matchups pointing to Louisville being the significantly better team, Louisville is going off at just a 3.5 point favorite. Why? The spot and the location.

Bad Spot For the Cardinals:

This is a terrible spot for Louisville. Last week they got to play a Boston College team off an emotional close loss to Florida State. The Eagles had the ball with a chance to drive down and win the game against one of the top 4 ranked teams in the country. Instead they fell to the Seminoles by just 2 points. It was a huge let down spot for Boston College coming into last week, and Louisville benefited, winning the game 56-28. This week the Cardinals are playing a team who will not be in a flat spot. This is a Friday night prime time game for the Wolf Pack, and a chance to show that they are still a legit contender in the ACC. On the other hand, Louisville comes in with a home game vs. Notre Dame on deck. That’s a massive game for the Cardinals and it’s logical to think they may be over looking this game tonight. It’s also likely that NC State did the same thing last week to Virginia, which is why that game came down to the wire. They had Louisville at home on deck, and they got in a tight game on the road against a bad team. I could absolutely see that happening here for the Louisville Cardinals.

Lastly factor in that this is a stand alone prime time game at night at Carter-Finley Stadium. This is an incredibly difficult place to play. It has proven to be an issue for far better teams than this version of the Louisville Cardinals. Then factor in that although Louisville has played two non-home games, this is their FIRST true road game of the season. The last place you want to play your first true road game of the season is Carter-Finley Stadium. That place is going to be absolutely rocking on a Friday night, and it’s going to be really tough for Louisville to get going early. If NC State can manufacture some offense early in the game and get off to a good start, which I think they will, I think Louisville could be in some trouble here tonight. NC State will be able to get a lead early, they will be able to have some long sustained drives against a mediocre Louisville defense, and this will put the Cardinals in an unfamiliar spot in a tough road environment.

Therefore, let’s go with the NC State Wolf Pack +3.5 at home tonight in front of a ruckus crowd at Carter-Finley Stadium. I believe NC State has a real shot to pull the outright home upset, so sprinkling some on the moneyline wouldn’t be a bad idea. However, let’s be smart here and take 3 and the hook.

Official Pick: NC STATE +3.5 vs. Louisville

Units: 1