College Basketball Best Bets 11/29/23
Author: Dylan Lieck | 11/29/23 | 11:53 A.M.
It’s a Wednesday afternoon, and there are some quality college hoops games on the betting slate tonight. With no football on, let’s dive into some best bets for tonights games.
Game 1: Arkansas vs. Duke
Line: Duke -4.5
Total: 148.5
Dylan’s Pick: Arkansas +4.5
Summary:
Look if you have never followed my picks or if you just don’t watch a ton of college basketball, the NUMBER ONE thing that will help you improve your handicapping in College Basketball is HOME COURT ADVANTAGE. College Basketball is BY FAR the sport where Home Court advantage plays a huge roll. Basketball is already a game of momentum, and when you have a ruckus crowd behind you, with a lot of 18-20 year old kids playing in a basketball game, things can get pretty wild. So if you’re going to be following my picks this year, one important thing to know is you almost will never see me taking a road team. Especially not when we get to conference.
Here we are going to take a team in a non-conference game in the Arkansas Razorbacks. This is an Arkansas team that comes into this game on a 2-game losing streak, while dropping 3 of their last 4 games. One of those losses came to an unranked UNC Greensboro team, and the other two came at the tournament over Thanksgiving called Battle for Atlantis. So we are getting the Razorbacks here at an absolute dirt cheap price. What I mean by that is if you look at these two teams on paper, even without Tramon Mark in the lineup, you are probably making this game Duke -2.5 on a neutral floor. But because UNCG beat them, and because it’s only the first game Mark isn’t playing, this line is highly inflated. You are going to have the public ALL OVER Duke in this spot, only laying 4.5 points against a bad Arkansas team. I LOVE that we’re getting 4.5, because I think we can win this game outright. I thought we’d be laying 1.5 or 2 to be honest.
Looking at the matchup here, the key is that obviously you have Duke playing it’s first TRUE road game of the season. They come into this game 5-1, with their lone loss at home to #12 Arizona. They did beat Michigan State in the State Farm Championship Classic on a neutral floor, but again that was not a TRUE road game. This is the first time they will be going into a hostile environment, and if you aren’t familiar with Bud Walton Arena, it’s an incredibly tough place to go in and win. Especially if you are not familiar with playing there (which Duke is not). That alone is enough for me to back Arkansas in this spot. But let’s throw in one more for good measure.
The last thing I love is just the mismatch athletically in this one. Duke has traditionally struggled with athleticism the last year and change under new HC John Scheyer. We saw it a couple times early in the regular season last year. And then we saw it when Duke got absolutely SMACKED by a LESS talented Tennessee team last year. Why? Because Tennessee was more athletic, bigger, and stronger. You can only do so much with skill. The funny thing is I actually don’t even think Duke is all that much more skilled than Arkansas. Maybe a little bit, but it isn’t much.
Official Pick: ARKANSAS +4.5 (Sprinkle some on Arkansas +150)
So we have a massive advantage athletically, and maybe a slight disadvantage talent wise, but it’s going to be negated by the home court factor? Yeah give me the Razorbacks in this one ALL DAY. This is the type of game I LOVE to bet the home dog in. We don’t get this big of a number that often anymore. Usually Arkansas is like -2 in this spot, so I’m going to jump on the value with a max bet on this one. Give me Arkansas +4.5 and do yourself a favor and sprinkle half a unit on them Moneyline. I’d be surprised if they don’t win this one outright.
Game 2: Texas A&M @ Virginia
Line: Virginia -2.5
Total: 125.5
Dylan’s Pick: Virginia -2.5
Summary:
Essentially this pick is based on two things. Number one is market perception, and number two is health of the two teams. First off let’s look at the market. Virginia has NOT impressed anyone early in the season. They are currently sitting at 4-1 going into this game, with their best win coming over a very athletic Florida Gators team 73-70 on a neutral floor. In that game against the Gators the Hoos actually shot 39% from the 3-point line & 50.9% eFG%. I think anyone who has watched a Virginia game over the past half decade (Post-National Title) would take those numbers offensively. Virginia has been far from an offensive juggernaut in the Tony Bennett era.
All that said, I watched the Hoos play Wisconsin on a neutral floor in Florida not too long after the win over the Gators, and man was it ugly. I honestly think Virginia set offense in the game of basketball back 50 years, as they were absolutely AWFUL. They lost by 24 points to the Badgers and put up just 41 points offensively the entire game, which included a first half of less than 20 points scored. Against Wisconsin in that game UVA shot an abysmal 32% from the field & 29% from three. But we’ve seen Virginia play that way and be highly competitive in years past. How? Their defense. They’re pack-line defense has ALWAYS been a staple of that team, and it’s something that most teams really struggle with, especially non-conference teams that have not seen it much before playing UVA. The shocking thing to me about that game against Wisconsin was how BAD UVA’s defense was. They allowed the Badgers to score 1.33 Points Per Possession (which is absurdly high for any team in CBB, let alone against UVA’s Defense). They posted an eFG% above 50% and shot nearly 45% from beyond the arc. All of these numbers are abnormal for Virginia to allow defensively.
The Hoos did follow up that performance with another bad offensive outing against West Virginia, in a game that they could’ve EASILY lost, but managed to escape 56-54. Here’s the main thing though. Those games in which Virginia looked AWFUL all came 7 or more days ago. They faced that Wisconsin team last Tuesday, and followed it up playing WVU Wednesday. What does that mean? Well it means Tony Bennett has had a full week to break down the film, get back to focusing on all the little things, and you better believe he’s going to have his team ready DEFENSIVELY for this matchup with the Aggies.
Now I’m not saying that Virginia is going to miraculously come out lighting it up from beyond the arc, dropping 70+ points. I’d be SHOCKED if we saw that. But I do believe they’re going to really muck up this game. It’s going to be played at a SNAILS Pace, as we will see lots of late shot clock possessions from the Hoos. Also expect Virginia to be much better on the glass. Against the Badgers of Wisconsin, UVA allowed TWENTY Offensive Rebounds. Yup, you heard that right: TWO, ZERO. There’s almost zero chance the Aggies have over 10 tonight. You can bet that was a point of emphasis along with their defensive principles the last week of practice with Bennett and his staff.
I’ll get to A&M’s health in a minute, but I do want to say in terms of the Aggies, I think when they are healthy, they have potential to be a really good team come March, and they’ll have a shot to make a deep tourney run with their guards. However, they are not healthy (keep reading below). But more than that, I do not like how their defense is trending. Against FAU, who is a good team but not an EXPLOSIVE team offensively, they allowed 96 points. And it wasn’t just one bad half, it was 46 in the 1H and 50 in the 2H. They were absolutely exposed. They followed that up allowing an Iowa State team, who’s got one of the more poor offenses, to score 70 points on them. They’ve allowed over 1 point per possession in 5 games this season, and they have really struggled staying in front of guys (hence why they tend to play 1-2-2 pressure to shorten possessions). I HATE how A&M’s defense is trending, and I like that UVA has had a week off. The spot is great for UVA here.
A&M’s Health:
A&M’s second best overall player, and second leading scorer, Tyrece Radford is out tonight. He missed the second half of the game in a loss to FAU last week, and then sat out of their previous game against Iowa State. A&M is just a different team with Radford out of the lineup. He’s an absolute monster attacking the rim, and he’s a really tough kid. He’s not only their leader, but he provides another element beyond just Wade Taylor shooting 3s and floaters. He gets all the way to the rim with physicality and gets to the FT line more than any other guard in the country. This team just is not the same without those two guys together in the lineup. We saw that against FAU in the second half. We saw it against Iowa State. And we’re going to see it tonight.
Official Pick: VIRGINIA -2.5
Last thing, this is A&M’s second true road game, but it’s the first one in which some of these guys will play major, meaningful minutes with Radford out. I think this is going to be a very low scoring game, and I’d lean strongly to the UNDER as well, but let’s go with the Hoos on the side here. Give me Virginia -2.5 for my 2nd BEST BET of the night.
Game 3: Colorado State vs. Colorado
Line: CSU -3.5
Total: 149.5
Dylan’s Pick: Colorado State -3.5
Summary:
Overall I just love the spot here for Colorado State. They are coming off a HUGE win for their program against Creighton, and now they are at home against their rival. I don’t think this is a let down spot at all. This is a chance for them to beat Colorado, which they haven’t done in a LONG time. They are going to be super up for this one.
If you haven’t had a chance to watch the PG for CSU play (Isaiah Stevens) you are in for a TREAT. The kid is arguably the best PG in the country. I think he is going to have a big game tonight (not a bold prediction - he always plays well). I love CSU in this spot against a very streaky Colorado team. Colorado is for sure a tourney team and they have a really good guard in KJ Simpson, but give me CSU at home in a big game for their program only laying 3.5
Official Pick: CSU -3.5
Best Bets No. 1 = 3 Unit MAX Bet
Best Bet No. 2 = 2 Unit Bet
Best Bet No. 3 = 1 Unit Bet
