NFL Best Bets 10/29/23

Getting to post this a bit later than I wanted to so I’m going to skip the long breakdown and post the official picks so they are out before kickoff.

Our BEST BET OF THE WEEK: Denver Broncos +7 vs. Kansas City Chiefs

They say that it’s hard to beat a team 2 times in one season. They say it’s really hard to beat a team 3 times in a ROW. How about 17 times in a row? That’s what KC is trying to do today against the Broncos. The problem is, I think the Broncos are actually an improving team, and I think KC is due for a loss. KC’s offense hasn’t been great as of late, and the Denver defense is trending up as they’ve gotten healthier. This makes no sense if I’m being honest, and that’s exactly why I LOVE it. Give me the Broncos +7 for my best bet of the week, and if your as bold as I am, sprinkle a little on the Moneyline (see ML Dog parlay below)

TEASER OF THE WEEK: Lions -2 to Chargers -2.5

We’re going to tease both the Lions and Chargers through the key numbers of 3 and 7

Both teams are home favorites, and I like both teams to win here relatively easily. Chargers take care of business by 14. Lions bounce back from the ugly game last week and win by 10. Easy winner on this one.

Extra Opinions:

Washington Commanders +7 vs. Eagles: Commanders always play the Eagles close - statistically this doesn’t make sense. I make the game 8.5, but bad spot for the Eagles, and the Commanders have a shot to win this one outright, so I’ll take the points.

Titans +2.5 vs. Falcons: Will Levis can’t be a step down from Tannehil so this is really a positive. At home the Titans are a different team. Desmond Ridder is AWFUL on the road Gimme the points, there’s a reason this didn’t get to 3 even with tons of public money on the favorite.

Packers +1.5 vs. Vikings: Kirk Cousins on the road in 30 degree temperatures? Give me the Packers. And if the Packers can’t win here, then I can promise you that I will never bet on the Packers again a day in my life. Jordan Love is an absolute bum, but I think he does just enough to get us the win here.

Chiefs @ Broncos Under 45.5: Denver’s defense is trending up, and KC’s defense is already really good. This is too many points in a game that’s going to be freezing cold up in Denver.

Bengals +4 @ 49ers: Burrow looks like he’s back, plus they’re off a bye. Purdy hasn’t looked the same since his first loss, and he’s trending the opposite way you’d like if you were a SF fan. Gimme the Bengals all day here.

ML Dog Parlay of the Week in the NFL:

Well I used to do these as 3-teamers, and I tended to hit 2, and lose on the last one a lot of the time, and it was always a will I won’t I hedge. Instead I’m dialing it back to 2-team ML Dogs. I hit those at an insanely high rate (54%) and they pay roughly 4-10 to 1 depending on the size of the dogs. I like one today a lot. I’m playing both on the side with the points

Give me the Broncos ML & Bengals ML for 10 Bucks = It pays 9 to 1 here and I think both teams are VERY live dogs. We’re going to start a streak with these ML Dog parlays as we hit our college one last night (Thanks to the schools in ARIZONA!!)

Good luck with all your wagers this Sunday!!