College Football Best Bet (10/14/23)

One Best Bet For Today in College Football:

Game: Michigan State Spartans +5 @ Rutgers Scarlett Knights

Weather: High Chance of Rain (Going to be Ugly)

Summary:

Michigan State comes into the game 2-3, and it has been a brutal start to the season, on and off the field. After starting with 2-straight wins, the Spartans were walloped at home by Washington 41-7, and it was probably worse than the score shows. However, Washington is the BEST offense in the country, and a legit top-10 team. I don’t think we need to include that datapoint.

The next two games were both losses, but they were a bit deceiving. The Spartans actually hung with Maryland for 3-quarters, trailing by 11 going into the 4th. They actually OUTGAINED the Terrapins in total yards in the game, but 5 turnovers killed the Spartans. When you lose the TO battle 5-1 there’s almost no chance of being in a game late in the fourth. The Spartans then went into Iowa, a really tough place to play, and went toe-to-toe with the Hawkeyes. Although the Hawkeyes are no offensive juggernaut, they are still a 5-1 team playing with a big homefield advantage.

The Spartans are also still dealing with the firing of their head coach, Mel Tucker. Tucker was fired following sexual assault allegations, however it’s not as though the team was playing well under Tucker. He was a below average coach at best.

Matchups:

When you look at the matchups here, they actually favor Michigan State. The two things Michigan State does really well? They run the ball well, and they stop the run. Rutgers on the other hand, is decent offensively rushing, but they’ve struggled to stop the run against good competition. There is a BIG mismatch in the trenches here, as Michigan State’s Offensive Line is much stronger than the Defensive Line of Rutgers.

Michigan State is has not announced their starting QB this week, which is making Rutgers prepare for all 3. This is key, as one of the MSU QBs is a dual threat, one is a straight runner, and the other is a pocket passer. With 3 of the QBs relatively equal in ability (and value to the point spread) this is advantage MSU.

Weather:

When you also incorporate that there is likely to be rain in this game, this favors MSU and their advantage in the trenches even more. Their ability to stop the run and run the ball will play a big factor in the outcome of this game if it starts to get really ugly (which it very well looks like it could).

Spot:

This is a good spot for Michigan State. Not only is the weather helpful in their gameplan, but it should also help with the crowd. It’s homecoming for Rutgers, and if it starts to get really bad weather wise, you can bet that stadium is going to be half empty. Again, advantage Michigan State.

Additionally, Michigan State is off a bye. While being off a bye in college doesn’t mean much in terms of win % against the spread, I think in this spot it does matter. Michigan State needed the additional time to prep. They hired former head coach Mike Dantonio, and he has been a big help patching up the secondary during the bye, according to local reporters.

Pick:

It’s ugly, no doubt. But we’re going to back the Spartans +5 in this spot. It all comes down to taking care of the ball. If Michigan State doesn’t turn the ball over, they not only have a good chance to cover, but they could win outright. I think in rainy conditions the TO battle should be quite even. Rutgers is not good enough to be laying more than 3 points in this spot, so I’ll grab the value.

OFFICIAL PICK: MICHIGAN STATE +5

Additional Opinions (Small plays at best):

Washington -3 vs. Oregon

South Carolina PK vs. Florida

Pittsburgh +8 vs. Louisville

Notre Dame -2.5 vs. USC

Washington State/Arizona OVER 57