Boise State @ Memphis Pick (9/30/23)

Boise State @ Memphis Pick (9/30/23)

Saturday College Football Matchup 9/30/23: Boise State @ Memphis

Line: Memphis -3 | Over/Under: 58.5

Location: Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Capacity: 58,325)

Kickoff Time: 3:00 P.M. Eastern Time

Weather At Kickoff: 90 Degrees, Mostly Sunny | Wind = 8 MPH, Gusts up to 9 MPH

TV Network: ESPN2

Game Summary:

We have a battle between the Mountain West and the American Conference on the docket in this matchup, as the Boise State Broncos will be taking on the Memphis Tigers. Memphis steps into this one off their first loss of the season, as they dropped a tough one last week to the Missouri Tigers. Despite the loss, the Tigers hung with Mizzou for 4 quarters, eventually falling 27-34. On the other hand we have the Boise State Broncos, far removed from their Rose Bowl days, who come in 2-2, but currently on a 2-game winning streak after their narrow 3 point victory over San Diego State last week. Let’s dive in and take a look at which team has the edge in this Saturday afternoon matchup.

As mentioned before, the Memphis Tigers come into this one 3-1 (1-0 in American), with wins over Bethune Cookman, Arkansas State, and Navy. None of their wins are against any sort of stiff competition, but they took care of business in all three games, before falling to a superior Missouri Tigers team last week. 6’3 junior QB Seth Henigan (#2) has led the charge on the offensive side of the ball for the Tigers so far this season. The Tigers have bolstered the 26th ranked passing offense in terms of Passing Success Rate through the first third of the season. Henigan has already thrown for over a thousand yards this season through four games, averaging just under 280 yards per contest. Henigan has thrown for 8 touchdowns and rushed for 3 more, however he does have 5 picks on the year, and he needs to do a better job taking care of the football if Memphis wants to have a shot to win the American conference. Although Memphis hasn’t had the same success on the ground their offense (101st in Rush Success Rate & 98th in Line Yards), the Tigers offense largely depends on success through the air.

Defensively, the Tigers have been surprisingly good. They rank 4th in Passing Success Rate allowed, and 16th in havoc rate (shows pressure put on the opposing QB), and 17th in Quality Drives allowed. They definitely have not faced a tough schedule of offenses thus far, but they’ve definitely exceeded expectations.

On the other hand the Broncos come into this one off two straight wins, however they narrowly escaped last week against a below average San Diego State team, and their only other win came against an FCS opponent. The Broncos offense is pretty simple. It relies on one thing: Running the ball. If the Broncos can run the ball effectively, they can control the clock, make it a phyiscal game, and have a shot to win it. If they can’t run the ball, and they are forced into known passing situations, they are really going to struggle. The Broncos are 20th in the country in Rush Success Rate, but a horrific 114th in Pass Success Rate. 6’6 sophomore QB Taylen Green has really struggled in the passing game. He’s thrown for under 200 yards a game in their first four contests, completing less than 54% of his passes, and throwing just as many interceptions as touchdowns (4 each). One area Green has excelled is with his legs. Despite taking 10 sacks (rush yards are deducted on sacks in college), Green has rushed 27 times for 128 yards (4.7 YPC) and 2 TDs. He will absolutely have to utilize his legs in this one if the Broncos want to have a shot to pull the road upset.

Boise State Defense:

The Boise State defense has been absolutely horrible so far this season. They did face one of the best offenses (if not the best) in the country week one, in the Washington Huskies, however their other three opponents were San Diego State, North Dakota, and Central Florida. None of those offenses are projected to finish inside the top 50 in the country in efficiency. The biggest issue for the Broncos defensively is that they don’t have any strengths: They are horrible against both the run and the pass. They come into this matchup ranked 125th in Rush Success Rate Allowed and 114th in Pass Success Rate allowed. Both of those numbers are out of 132 qualified teams, so we are talking about one of the worst defenses (metrically) in the entire country. But, the main issue is the pass defense. This matchup is going to feature an opponent who comes in with a Top 25 Passing Offense and a very talented QB.

Last week the Broncos faced off against the San Diego State Aztecs. The Aztecs came in with one of the worst passing offenses for a non-option team in the country. Through 5 games, their QB Jalen Mayden, who was converted to safety his freshmen year due to his inability to perform as a QB, had thrown for over 200 yards just once in 4 games. Despite SDSU’s issues throwing the ball, they allowed Mayden to complete over 71% of his passes, and throw for a touchdown (and no picks). Now they go on the road for the second straight week, and take on one of the better QBs in college football. This is a terrible matchup for a Boise State secondary that really struggles to cover WRs (121st in coverage out of 132 teams).

Memphis Stopping the Run

It’s pretty clear that the Broncos are at a significant disadvantage on the defensive side of the ball. We also know that the Broncos cannot throw the ball a lick. So how do they hang in this game? The only possible way for the Broncos to pull the road upset would be to have a tremendous rushing day. Now Memphis has not been good against the run this season (62nd in Rush Success Rate, 86th in Line Yards), however those numbers are a bit skewed considering they played a Navy team who runs the option in week 3.

Additionally, despite the success of the defense against the pass, last week the reason the Tigers gave up 34 points to Missouri was largely due to Missouri’s passing offense. They averaged double digit yards per pass in the contest, and they needed every bit of it to hold off Memphis at home. It seems almost impossible for Boise State to find success through the air in this game, and that seemed to be the recipe to beat Memphis last week.

Pick:

Overall, the Memphis Tigers are the far superior team here. I don’t like taking favorites when the line seems to be a bit short, and that is what we have here. However, I think the line is just wrong in this case. I make this game 5.5 in my power rankings, and thus I’m getting 2.5 points of value laying the 3 here. Additionally, the Tigers are coming off a loss, traveling back home to face a team that is not nearly as good as the team they faced last week. It feels like a bounce back spot for Memphis, who has still yet to play their best football of the season. If Memphis plays up to it’s capabilities they will win this game by two touchdowns. If the don’t, I still believe they will have a good chance to pull this one out late and cover the short number. Laying short favorites isn’t my favorite thing to do, but this is too good to pass up. I’m backing the Memphis Tigers -3 in a bounce back spot at home.

Official Pick: Memphis Tigers -3 vs. Boise State Broncos

Units: 1