Notre Dame @ Duke Pick (9/30/23)
Notre Dame @ Duke Pick (9/30/23)
Saturday College Football Matchup 9/30/23: Notre Dame @ Duke
Line: Notre Dame -6 | Over/Under: 52.5
Location: Wallace Wad Stadium, Durham, North Carolina (Capacity: 40,004)
Kickoff Time: 7:30 P.M. Eastern Time
Weather At Kickoff: 71 Degrees | Wind = 5 MPH, Gusts up to 10 MPH
TV Network: ABC
Game Summary:
Notre Dame travels to Durham, North Carolina on Saturday night to take on the surprise team of the college football season so far, the Duke Blue Devils. The Blue Devils are known for being a powerhouse on the hardwood, but they are out to prove that they are more than just a basketball school. Last year the Blue Devils finished with 9 wins for the just the second time since 1940. Meanwhile, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish are no stranger to success on the football field in the recent past. The Fighting Irish come into this one off a heartbreaking loss last week, at home against their rival, Ohio State. College game day is in Durham for this one, so let’s take a look and see if this game can live up to the ESPN hype.
Last year the Blue Devils came into the season without much in terms of expectations. Riley Leonard had different plans, as he burst onto the scene as one of the top QBs in the ACC. As a sophomore, Leonard threw for just under 3,000 yard, completing 64% of his passes, while throwing 20 TDs and just 6 picks. Maybe equally as impressive, though, was Leonard’s legs. He ran for nearly 700 yards on 5.6 yards per carry and a whopping 13 TDs on the ground. Leonard was absolutely dynamic last season, and not much as changed in 2023. Now Leonard has not been required to do all that much in the passing game so far this season, largely because Duke has absolutely dominated all four of their opponents. However, he is yet to throw an interception through 4 starts. His legs have been even better than they were last season, already rushing for 238 yards and 4 TDs.
The Irish come into this game coming of an emotional loss at home last week to the Ohio State Buckeyes. The Irish
Irish Mentality After Last Week’s Loss
This is an incredibly tough spot for the Irish. They played a night game last week against one of the more physical teams in the country. Not only was the game against Ohio State a game that mirrored football in the 1980s, but Notre Dame also lost it in heartbreaking fashion. The Irish had about 10 chances to end that game at home in South Bend last week. They had the ball with under 3 minutes to play, and after two easy runs for first downs, they were one first down away from a win. Once again, in step Gerad Parker, who threw up all over himself the final 3 plays he called. After a bad first down run call, Parker decided to call a screen pass. Hartman not only threw an incompletion to stop the clock, but it almost ended up being an interception. Then on third and long, after you have committed to being aggressive and trying to get the first down by throwing on second and long, Parker goes back to being conservative and runs the ball on third down, leading to a Notre Dame punt. The series of events not only gave Ohio State the ball back with plenty of time to mount a game winning drive, but the incompletion on second down allowed Ohio State to hang onto their last timeout. That timeout ended up being the difference in the game.
All of that hate for Gerard Parker aside, the Notre Dame defense, who was great all night against the Buckeyes, had more than it’s fair share of chances to end the game on the final drive. The Irish dropped two interceptions on poor passes by Kyle McCord (OSU QB), one of which hit a ND DB in the hands and should’ve been an easy pick. Then after McCord was flagged for intentional grounding, the Buckeyes found themselves outside the Irish 20 yard-line, facing a 3rd and 19, with no timeouts left and just 17 seconds remaining in the game. All the Irish had to do was tackle Ohio State in bounds short of the first down marker and the game was over. The Irish had success bringing pressure all night against the Buckeyes, especially on the final drive. Instead, Marcus Freeman decided to rush three for one of the first times all night. The result was a completion for Ohio state of 20 yards, which included a first down, temporarily stopping the clock and allowing the Buckeyes to spike the ball. The Buckeyes would end up getting in the endzone of the final play of the game. But even allowing a 3rd and 19 wasn’t the worst part. The worst part was that on the final two plays from the 1-yard line, with possible National Championship hopes on the line, the Irish had just 10 men on the field. Yup, that’s right. TWICE.
This is mostly troubling to me, because I believe if I were a player on that team, I would not believe in my coach whatsoever. Now the Irish have to go on the road, to a hostile environment, and they’ve had all week to think about the fact that their coach couldn’t even get the right number of dudes on the field on the biggest play of the game. It’s not just a bad look for the ND head coach, but it makes me question how his players will respond this week.
Notre Dame’s Lack of Explosiveness
Notre Dame comes into the game with one of the nation’s best QBs, as discussed above, in Sam Hartman. Unfortunately for Irish fans, they haven’t gotten to see a high powered offense this season, but it is not Sam Hartman’s fault. Gerad Parker (ND Offensive Coordinator) has had this offense stuck in the mud from the start of this season. When you look at Hartman’s numbers, they are really good, but when you dig into the stats, you really see issues with this offense, and they were on full display last week against Ohio State. Over the course of the first four games, Hartman has attempted just 15 passes of 20 or more yards. That’s wild when you think about the quality of opponent ND has faced thus far (other than Ohio State), not to mention the fact that Hartman pushed the ball downfield more than any FBS QB last season.
On the other side of the ball, the Duke defense has yet to allow a single completion of 20+ yards all season. Duke’s defense as a whole has been outstanding against the pass, ranking 4th in the country in Passing Success Rate allowed. As mentioned before, Duke hasn’t played the toughest schedule thus far, but they do have a good data point in week one as they absolutely shut down the Clemson Tigers. It’s hard to imagine a team like Notre Dame, with that little offensive explosiveness, going on the road in a hostile environment and having to win by two field goals to cover against an elite pass defense. You would think, unless the Irish just have a historic day on the ground, that the Blue Devils can stay in this game going into the fourth quarter.
Pick
Overall, the Fighting Irish come into this game in a terrible spot, facing one of the more experienced teams in the country (17 returning starters this year), who have yet to lose a game this season. This is the chance for the Blue Devils to prove to everyone that they are a real player in college football. The Irish, on the other hand, have had an entire week to think about how they let one slip through their hands. Moreover, they have had the entire week to think about how their coach likely cost them the game. I believe the Blue Devils will be super up for this matchup, and I think they have a real chance to pull the outright upset over the Irish. Let’s take the points though. Take Duke +6. The line has fluttered from 5.5 to 6. Try to get the best number as always, but we will be backing the Blue Devils in this one.
Official Pick: Duke Blue Devils +6 vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Units: 1
