College Football Picks Week 6 (10/7/23)

Saturday Picks:

It’s been a super busy week with the launch of my sports podcast, so I am posting this late at night on Friday Night. I don’t have too much time to give in depth breakdowns of my picks so I’ll run through my picks, opinions, and a fun parlay at the end.

OFFICIAL PICKS:

I’ve got 3 official picks for this Saturday. I normally don’t play totals as much as I play sides, but there are two totals I really love this weekend.

1) Kentucky @ Georgia UNDER 48.5: This is my favorite play of the week. I bet it super early in the week, so I got it at 48.5, and it currently sits 47 as I’m writing this. If you look at Kentucky’s final scores, you will see that they have yet to score less than 28 points this season. Not ideal for an under right? Well let’s look at their schedule. Before last week, they faced Ball State, Eastern Kentucky, Akron, and Vanderbilt (one of the easiest schedules of defenses of any power 5 team through 4 weeks). Then last week, it looked like another offensive explosion from the Wildcats, putting up 33 against a ranked Florida team. However, for one, this Florida team is a different group at home compared to on the road (last week was in Kentucky). Utah has been one of the worst offenses of all P5 teams through 5 weeks, and Florida gave up 24 points to that same offense week 1 on the road.

Secondly, Kentucky has LIVED on the explosive play. When you look at Kentucky’s down to down success rate, they’ve actually really struggled: They are outside the top 70 in both rush & pass success rate, and 98th in rush yards. This means that although they ran for nearly 10 yards/rush last week, the reality is they busted a number of big runs that skewed the numbers. And, that’s exactly what’s happened all season.

To add to the argument for the under, both teams are in the top 15 in pass success rate defense (UK is 13th, Georgia is 3rd) - so neither team should be able to find great success through the air. Georgia isn’t great against the run, but they are BY FAR better than any team UK has played this season. The step up in class for the Wildcats will really hurt their offense. On the other hand Georgia has not blown anyone away this season with their offensive attack, and Kentucky’s defense is solid enough to keep Georgia from having an offensive outburst here.

Lastly, both teams are towards the bottom of the country in seconds per play, meaning they play at a much slower pace than average. UK is 79th in seconds per play, while Georgia is 121st (one of the slowest teams in the country). I think this is going to be a physical, grinded out, slow tempo game, which is the perfect type of game for an under in this spot.

Side Note: This got STEAMED under by multiple groups - get the best number. I would play it under 48 or better. Anything lower than that is probably too much value lost, unless you want to play it smaller

2) TCU -6 @ Iowa State:

I believe oddsmakers are overreacting to the loss last week to West Virginia. I don’t think TCU is all that great, but this is an Iowa State team who has played really poorly offensively through much of the season so far. The weakness of the TCU team is their defense, but I don’t believe Iowa State has enough to exploit the Horned Frogs in this spot. It’s also a HUGE game for the Horned Frogs, who are in danger of dropping their 3rd game already. They still have K-State, OU, and Texas on the schedule, and two of those games are on the road. If they drop this one they are looking at a possible 6-6 season, which would really hurt the recruiting momentum they had following the end of the National Title Run last season.

3) Syracuse @ North Carolina Under 60

This game comes down to a few things. One Syracuse isn’t a great offensive team, and we saw that last week at home against Clemson. Now you have a struggling offense, going on the road after a big emotional game (let down spot). You also look at UNC, who had an offensive outburst last week against Pittsburgh. However, this is a big step up in class for them as Syracuse’s defense ranks top 10 nationally in defensive efficiency. North Carolina does get their top WR back here, but he hasn’t played a game in a month, and it’s hard to think he’s going to come in and make this UNC offense explosive all of the sudden against a solid Syracuse Defense. I think both teams play slow enough and run the ball enough to keep the clock moving, and get under the number of 60. I do think they will get close to the number, but I like this one staying relatively low scoring .

Opinions:

These are not to be played for much, if at all. They are just informed picks that I like that didn’t make the card this week.

1) UAB +3 vs. South Florida

2) Texas A&M +.5 (1st Half) vs. Bama

3) California +8 vs. Oregon State

4) Washington State +3.5 @ UCLA

5) Missouri +6 vs. LSU

6) Eastern Michigan @ Ball State Under 44.5

7) Arizona State +4 vs. Colorado

8) Purdue +2.5 @ Iowa

Moneyline Dog Parlay

This is to be played for fun, or no more than a few bucks. It is a 3-teamer and it pays roughly 11 to 1

1) Purdue +115 over Iowa

2) Washington State +145

3) Boston College +115 @ Army