Louisville @ NC State Pick (9/29/23)
Friday Night Football Matchup 9/29/23: Louisville @ NC State
Line: Louisville -3.5 | Over/Under: 55.5
Location: Carter Finley Stadium (NC State Home Stadium)
Weather At Kickoff: 76 Degrees, Possible Lightning | Wind = 6 MPH, Gusts up to 14 MPH
Game Summary:
NC State has not looked great this year posting a 3-1 record, but with 2 unimpressive wins against Virginia and UCONN. In game 1 against a very bad UCONN team the Wolfpack struggled to pull away at home, prevailing 24-14. Their most recent game was even more troubling, as the Wolfpack squeaked by Virginia on a last second field goal; a Virginia team that has yet to win a game this year. Their lone loss came at home to Notre Dame 24-45, a game that the Fighting Irish thoroughly outplayed the Wolf Pack. That said, the game against Notre Dame was closer than the final score indicated. The Wolf Pack hung with the Fighting Irish for 3 quarters, but fell apart in the final quarter. Overall, nobody is picking NC State to win the ACC after 4 games. They look to be a middle of the road team in their conference.
On the other side we’ve got the Louisville Cardinals coming in at 4-0. The Cardinals have yet to play a true road game this season, although they have played two games away from their home stadium. The Cardinals are ranked 116th in Strength of Schedule through 4 games, and of the 4 opponents they’ve played, not a single one is an FBS team with a winning record (at time of writing). When you look at the Cardinals, on the surface, you see that they beat a pretty decent Georgia Tech team in their first game by 5 points, on a neutral field. However, that score does not tell the whole story. Anyone who watched that game saw that the Yellow Jackets of Georgia Tech thoroughly outplayed the Cardinals for 3 full quarters, and looked to be the better team. Unfortunately for GT, they threw up all over themselves in the fourth quarter, and had to score a late touchdown just to cover the spread as 9.5 point dogs. Against Indiana, the Cardinals got out to a 21-0 lead and looked to be in control of the game. However, Indiana stormed back, cutting the deficit to 7, and at one point had the ball trailing 14-21 with a chance to tie the game. The Cardinals were able to pull out the victory, however it was another unimpressive performance.
When you break this game down the numbers clearly point in the direction of Louisville. They have the better offense by far. The Cardinals are averaging 305 yards passing per game compared to just 215 for the Wolf Pack. Even more impressively, the Cardinals have rushed for nearly 238 yards per game, compared to just 167 for the Wolf Pack. Neither defense is anything to write home about. Both teams are pretty good against the run, albeit against poor competition. NC State is slightly better against the pass so far this season. Brennan Armstrong (NCST QB) has not been good this year throwing for just under 215 yards a game, 60% completion, and 5 TDs to 4 Interceptions. Armstrong’s struggles have been one of the main issues in NC State’s offensive issues, but his legs are an intangible that could Louisville’s defense some issues. The Cardinals allowed Haynes King (GT QB) to rush for nearly 8 yards per carry, when factoring out sacks. Despite most of the numbers and matchups pointing to Louisville being the significantly better team, Louisville is going off at just a 3.5 point favorite. Why? The spot and the location.
Bad Spot For the Cardinals:
This is a terrible spot for Louisville. Last week they got to play a Boston College team off an emotional close loss to Florida State. The Eagles had the ball with a chance to drive down and win the game against one of the top 4 ranked teams in the country. Instead they fell to the Seminoles by just 2 points. It was a huge let down spot for Boston College coming into last week, and Louisville benefited, winning the game 56-28. This week the Cardinals are playing a team who will not be in a flat spot. This is a Friday night prime time game for the Wolf Pack, and a chance to show that they are still a legit contender in the ACC. On the other hand, Louisville comes in with a home game vs. Notre Dame on deck. That’s a massive game for the Cardinals and it’s logical to think they may be over looking this game tonight. It’s also likely that NC State did the same thing last week to Virginia, which is why that game came down to the wire. They had Louisville at home on deck, and they got in a tight game on the road against a bad team. I could absolutely see that happening here for the Louisville Cardinals.
Lastly factor in that this is a stand alone prime time game at night at Carter-Finley Stadium. This is an incredibly difficult place to play. It has proven to be an issue for far better teams than this version of the Louisville Cardinals. Then factor in that although Louisville has played two non-home games, this is their FIRST true road game of the season. The last place you want to play your first true road game of the season is Carter-Finley Stadium. That place is going to be absolutely rocking on a Friday night, and it’s going to be really tough for Louisville to get going early. If NC State can manufacture some offense early in the game and get off to a good start, which I think they will, I think Louisville could be in some trouble here tonight. NC State will be able to get a lead early, they will be able to have some long sustained drives against a mediocre Louisville defense, and this will put the Cardinals in an unfamiliar spot in a tough road environment.
Therefore, let’s go with the NC State Wolf Pack +3.5 at home tonight in front of a ruckus crowd at Carter-Finley Stadium. I believe NC State has a real shot to pull the outright home upset, so sprinkling some on the moneyline wouldn’t be a bad idea. However, let’s be smart here and take 3 and the hook.
Official Pick: NC STATE +3.5 vs. Louisville
Units: 1
