Baylor @ Central Florida Pick (9/30/23)

Saturday College Football Matchup 9/30/23: Baylor @ Central Florida

Line: Central Florida -10 | Over/Under: 57

Location: FBC Mortgage Stadium, Orlando, Florida (Capacity (44,206)

Kickoff Time: 3:30 P.M. Eastern Time

Weather At Kickoff: 84 Degrees, Sunny | Wind = 15 MPH, Gusts up to 29 MPH

TV Network: FS1

Game Summary:

Baylor comes into this matchup off an incredibly rough start to the season, coming into this game with just one win and three losses. The first game of the season the Bears faced off against a Texas State team who had won a combined 10 games in the past 3 seasons. Despite the difference in program pedigree, The Bears struggled mightily, especially on defense. Texas State racked up 441 yards of total offense and on their way to putting up 42 points and knocking off the bears by double digits (42-31). The Bears especially struggled with the pass, allowing just under 300 yards, but more alarmingly they allowed 9.8 yards per pass to a team with a QB who is not known for his passing prowess.

The Bears next 3 games weren’t all that much better, going 2-1 in their last 3 games, with their lone win coming against an FCS team in Rhode Island in game 2. Most of the issues for the Bears have come on the defensive end, which is surprising given head coach Dave Arranda’s defensive background. Nonetheless, the Bears were absolutely dominated by the Longhorns last week in Austin. Baylor gave up 328 yards passing on just 25 attempts to the Horns (a staggering 13.1 yards per pass), and this was facing Quinn Ewers for most of the game. Ewers threw for just 131 the week before against Wyoming. The Bears were never in the game, did not score an offensive touchdown, and failed to cover as 17 point dogs, falling 6-32 to the Horns. The Bears rush defense hasn’t been much better. Even against Rhode Island, an FCS team with zero passing ability, the Bears allowed 5 yards per carry. It’s fair to say there is more than cause for concern in Waco at this moment.

On the other side we have a Central Florida team coming in at 3-1 (0-1 in conference). The Knights come in searching for their first ever Big 12 Conference win, after falling last week on the road to a solid Kansas State team, 31-44. The Knights have largely leaned on their run game through the first four games (60% Run | 40% Pass). As a team they have carried the ball 175 times for 1,041 yards (5.9 YPC), and 11 TDs. They’ve largely leaned on a pair of senior RBs, Johnny Richardson and RJ Harvey. The two have carried the ball a combined 91 times for 572 yards, 6.3 yards per carry, and 5 rushing touchdowns. One important thing to keep an eye on in this matchup though is in the passing game, with the health of John Rhy Plumlee in question. Plumlee was injured in the second game of the season and has missed the last two games. However, Timmy McClain (backup QB) has actually performed better in Plumlee’s absence. He’s thrown for 1 yard per pass more than Plumlee, 1 more touchdown, and 3 less interceptions (Plumlee has a negative TD to INT ratio at 3 TDs to 4 Picks).

On paper this matchup clearly favors the Knights, and the number opening at 11.5 makes a lot of sense when you factor in that the Bears got absolutely smacked by the Longhorns next week, their lone win is against an FCS team, and this is going to be their first true road game of the season. Meanwhile the Knights come in with just one loss, and although they lost to K-State last week, the game was close for much of the contest, despite the starting QB not playing.

All that said, this is a prime “Buy Low” spot for Baylor if you are comfortable backing a team in their first true road game. Nobody is giving the Bears a chance in this game, coming in as double digit underdogs against a solid football team in Central Florida. But let’s dig into why the Bears actually have a shot in this contest.

Baylor Injuries

Over the course of it’s first 4 games, the Bears have had some bad injury luck. During the week 1 upset, one bright spot was the play of QB Blake Shapen. Shapen took a lot of heat last season for his less than stellar performance, but you have to give him credit in game one. He looked much improved, albeit against a less than elite defense. Shapen returns this week, but whether Shapen is as good as he performed in week one is irrelevant: he’s a MAJOR upgrade either way. In stepped Sawyer Robertson in Shapen’s absence, a Mississippi State transfer. There’s no nice way to say it: Robertson was awful in his 3 starts for the Bears. In 3 starts, Robertson was 48/97, completing less than 50% of his passes. He threw for just 670 yards total, along with 1 touchdown and 4 interceptions. The get back of Shapen in this spot is absolutely massive for the Bears, if nothing else because Robertson was so bad.

Shapen isn’t the only one returning from injury this week. The Bears also get back some key pieces in the secondary. 3 CBs who were out last week against the Longhorns will be back this game. And, 6 total players return from injury in this game. In other words, Baylor is going into this game the healthiest it has been all season. In that aspect, Baylor is definitely in good shape.

Central Florida’s Pass Game:

The basic numbers show that Central Florida’s pass game has been elite this season. They have thrown for nearly 11 yards per pass, and they are 21st in the country in pass success rate. However, these stats are based on just a 4 game sample size, with 2 of those games coming against an FCS team (Villanova) and quite possibly the worst team in the FBS (Kent State). When. you look at the game against Kansas State, the pass game really wasn’t all that effective down-to-down. The Knights had just a 44% passing success rate against K-State, and McClain completed just 14/24 passes. They heavily relied on the explosive pass, generating 5 total completions of 20+ yards. Additionally, the Knights offense did put up 31 points on K-State, however 7 of those were on a late, meaningless touchdown.

Although Baylor has been horrific so far this year against the pass, they did hold a bad Utah passing game in check for most of the game at home in game two, and as mentioned before they are getting 3 key secondary pieces back for this game. Because of this, I don’t think Central Florida will have as much success as one would think based on the numbers. Additionally, one area the Knights have really struggled since Plumlee went down is sacks allowed. Negative plays have hurt this offense. Moreover, the Knights are just 61st in Havoc allowed on the season, and that includes 2 games with the very mobile Plumlee. If the Bears can manufacture some pressure in this game (which they should be able to do), you have to believe the Central Florida offense won’t be able to move the ball as well as they have against some lesser opponents this season.

Jobs on the Line

Lastly, one key aspect to throw in here is the gravity of the situation for Dave Arranda. A lot of very well respected football minds think very highly of Arranda. In his first year at Baylor he took a team with a projected win total of 6 games and won the Big 12. However, since then the Bears have been struggle city, there are a number of boosters who are not happy with the performance of the football team, and it seems that Arranda has been clearly placed on the hot seat in Waco.

When you look at the situation this could not be a bigger game for the Bears. Realistically, this game could be the time for the Bears to turn their season around, or it could be the game where Arranda loses the team. Starting 1-4, the Bears can almost guarantee missing a bowl game. However, if they were able to steal this one on the road, the next four games on the schedule are very winnable (vs. TTU, @ Cinci, vs. ISU, vs. Houston). What looks like a dumpster fire of a season could easily be turned around in one foul swoop. Because of this, you have to expect we are going to get the Bears best shot in this spot.

Pick:

Overall, I like the Bears in this spot. The improving health of the team, the return of their starting QB, and the gravity of the game for the coaching staff all combine to make Baylor a live dog in this spot. The Bears know their season is on the line here after the 1-3 start, and I have a feeling they know their coach’s job is on the line too. I think we see Baylor’s absolute best shot here, and I think Shapen delivers in a big way. I’ll take the Bears +10. I will say the one thing that gives me pause about making this a bigger play is the fact that it’s Baylor’s first true road game of the season. However, I think the factors pointing in Baylor’s favor here strongly outweigh the fact that this game is in Orlando. It’s also an afternoon kickoff, which is a significantly less crazy environment than a night game.

Full disclosure, I did get this at +11.5, but with the official announcement of Blake Shapen playing Thursday, we’ve seen this number dip to 10, and even as low as 9 in some spots. I’m going to grade this one at +10, but shop around and try to find the best number.

Official Pick: Baylor Bears +10 @ Central Florida

Units: 1