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NFL Playoff Best Bets: Round 1 (1/11/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | January 11, 2025 | 12:02 A.M. CST
Best Bet 2-Team, 6.5 Point Teaser: Baltimore Ravens -3 & Buffalo Bills -3
I don’t normally like giving out a -120 bet unless I feel there’s a significant edge (obviously you have to pick at a higher rate at 20% juice). However, I think this is the best bet on the board in round 1 that’s going to be a legitimate non-sweat. Let’s dive into each of the two picks:
Ravens -3 vs. Steelers:
Let’s start with the Baltimore Ravens. Look the Pittsburgh Steelers have been REELING down the stretch. My favorite thing is to bet is when my in-season projections from weeks prior align with a pick that I like currently; when I get that combo it usually bodes very well. Back-to-back wins over the Bengals & Browns put the Steelers at 10-3, but it was clear that this Steelers team was much worse than their record indicated. Not only had Pittsburgh won multiple games that they did not deserve to win, but their supposedly ELITE defense got shredded by the Joe Burrow & the Bengals. The next game that same defense gave up 300 yards to the Browns and Jameis Winston and only won the game by margin due to Famous Jameis turnovers.
Looking at their last four games I predicted the Steelers would finish the season 0-4, MAYBE 1-3. And that’s exactly what they did. They lost 4 consecutive games to end the regular season. The defense looked average in those 4 games and the offense looked putrid, especially with George Pickens out. Even with Pickens back, in a MUST WIN game to avoid dropping from the 5 seed to the 6 seed (difference between going to Houston and going to Baltimore) playing against arguably the WORST defense in the league in the Cincinnati Bengals, AT HOME, that same Steelers offense mustered just 17 points. And honestly, 17 points gives them more credit than they deserve. The Steelers finished the game at 3.4 yards per pass, 3.2 yards per rush, and a horrific 3.3 yards per play. It was a spot that if you have an offense they WILL show up, and they didn’t.
Then you look at the fact that the Steelers also PLAYED the Ravens in one of their four final games. That was a game that if Pittsburgh won they controlled the division and a path to a home playoff game. The Ravens won by 17 points. They outgained the Steelers by over 100 total yards, and by 1.5 yards per play. That vaunted Steeler’s defense allowed Lamar Jackson and company to average nearly 7 yards per play in not great weather. And, it was a balanced attack.
While the Steelers finished the season with 4 consecutive losses, the Ravens finished with 4 consecutive wins. These are two teams headed in complete opposite directions. But what really impressed me the last 4 games was the Baltimore Ravens defense. This was a secondary that was NOT GOOD for most of the season, despite having an elite run defense. And yet the final 4 games the Ravens were awesome on the defensive side. As a whole, they gave up less than 11 points per game the last 4 outings. Now, they did play some of the bottom offenses in the league, but you have to take into account that offenses like that we’re torching this Ravens secondary early in the season. AND, you have to take into account that this Pittsburgh offense IS ALSO A BOTTOM OFFENSE. Even if the Ravens were to revert back to some of their previous woes, I’m not sure this Steelers offense has the ability to take advantage of it. Even in the first matchup in Pittsburgh earlier this season, a matchup won by the Steelers (18-16), Pittsburgh averaged just 4.1 yards per play and they were outgained by the Ravens by 2.0 yards per play. Russell Wilson threw for just 205 yards and a INT, zero TDs. They won the game due to Ravens mistakes (12 penalties and 3 TO’s). In my opinion, that’s the ONLY way the Steelers keep this REMOTELY close: the Ravens would have to have won of their worst offensive outings of the season, while the Steelers would have to play one of their BEST. I just don’t see it happening. And that’s why we’re going to tease this to the key of 3.
Part 2: Bills -3 vs. Broncos
The Broncos are a great story this season. They had a bottom five defense in the NFL last season; we saw them give up 70 points to the Miami Dolphins early in the 2023 campaign. And through the first half of the year, they had become one of the leagues TOP defenses. You had the worst trade in NFL history, with Denver giving Russell Wilson that massive contract, and yet he was as bad as you could be last season. They get a rookie QB coming in, who nobody thought was any good, and he ends the year likely second in OROY voting. These things all contributed to the Broncos making the playoffs for the first team in a half decade. Great for Bo Nix, and Sean Payton, and all the Denver fans. Unfortunately their run will come to an end Sunday, as they get matched up with who I believe is the SB favorite in the Buffalo Bills
This Bills team is on an absolute mission this year. Josh Allen IS the MVP (and he WILL win the award). There’s been absolutely nobody better in the entire NFL this year. Allen has carried a team with no-name receivers (at least before they added Amari Cooper). But this Bills team is more than that. Joe Brady has developed a very balanced offense featuring James Cook out of the backfield, and mixing in lots of Josh Allen runs. And that’s all great, before adding in the home field advantage. This is by far the toughest place in the NFL to play when it comes playoff time. That place is going to be filled and absolutely rocking from the jump. The Bills were a perfect 8-0 at home this season, and they beat teams much better than the Denver Broncos.
Overall, it’s just an impossible spot for a rookie QB and an overachieving team. They may have had a shot against the Houston Texans. Possibly even the Baltimore Ravens if the weather held up and no Zay Flowers. But this Broncos team has no shot of keeping this close. I was considering laying the entire 9.5 but I believe for purposes of avoiding a backdoor sweat, we’re just going to make this leg two of the teaser and ride with the Bills -3.
Official Pick: Ravens -3 | Bills -3 (-120)
Play Rating: 2-Stars
CFP Orange Bowl Semi Final Best Bet (1/9/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | January 9, 2025 | 9:45 A.M. CST
Best Bet:
Notre Dame PK vs. Penn State
Play Rating: 2-Star
College Hoops Best Bets (1/8/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | January 8, 2025 | 4:27 P.M. CST
Last Night’s Wagers: 2-0
Tonight’s Best Bets:
1) Villanova PK vs. UCONN
2) Arkansas -3.5 vs. Ole Miss
Both Plays: 2-Stars
College Hoops Best Bets (1/7/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | January 7, 2025 | 3:37 P.M. CST
Best Bets:
1) Florida -3.5 vs. Tennessee
2) Georgia +1.5 vs. Kentucky
Both Plays: 2-Stars
NFL Best Bet Sunday Games (1/5/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | January 4, 2024 | 11:15 P.M. CST
Best Bet: 2-Team, 6 Point Teaser (Chargers -.5 | Seahawks -1)
Week 18 in the modern day NFL is all about identifying which teams are motivated to win and which teams are not. Sometimes it’s simple, where teams are sitting their starters. Other times, you have to identify whether teams are going to try to win when it’s actually advantageous for them to lose.
Chargers -6.5 to -.5 vs Raiders: Yes, the Chargers have already clinched a playoff birth heading into the final week. However, with the results of the Bengals/Steelers game in, we now know EXACTLY what the Chargers are playing for. If Los Angeles LOSES to the Raiders tomorrow, the Chargers will fall to the 6 seed, which means they would be going on the road to Baltimore to play the AFC North Champion Ravens. Keep in mind, the Chargers already played the Ravens once this year, and it was all Baltimore (and that game was in L.A.) On the other hand, if the Chargers win tomorrow, they will be locked into the #5 seed, which would in turn send them to HOUSTON to play the Texans. The Texans have been in a landslide the past month, with CJ Stroud continuing to struggle, along with serious health concerns on both the OL and in the wide receiver room. Basically, my point is that playing the Texans indoors, compared to playing at Baltimore in cold weather for a west coast team is a MASSIVE difference. So the Chargers will be very motivated here. On the other hand, it’s possible Antonio Pierce knows he’s fired, in which case he will be trying to win this game for his guys. However, the Raiders have no trouble losing games they’re trying to win. They lost 10-straight during the season, and their only wins in the past 14 weeks came against Mac Jones and the 4-win Jaguars and Spencer Rattler who lost every game he’s started for the Saints (0-6). So even if the Raiders come in motivated to win here (which they SHOULD NOT BE because it hurts their draft position), they just don’t have enough to compete with a locked in Chargers team, who’s playing for something. I thought this line was too low.
Seahawks -7 to -1 @ Rams: The Seahawks have nothing to play for in terms of playoff positioning, and the Rams do. With a loss and a Bucs win (TB is a 13 point favorite tomorrow vs. Saints), the Rams would drop to the #4 seed and would square off with the loser of the Vikings/Lions Sunday Night matchup. Meaning, a loss could result in playing a 14-win team rather than a 10 or 11 win team. Still the Rams will be sitting all their major offensive weapons in this game, including starting QB Matthew Stafford. Jimmy G will be getting the nod at QB. Now Seattle has plenty of incentives to fill, which is partially why I like the Seahawks here. Geno Smith, particularly, has a shot to make up to six million bucks in bonuses; and, one of those bonuses is a 2 million dollar bump for winning 10-games. So Geno has every incentive in the world to go out and play his best game of the season, even though they have no shot at the post-season. It also gives head coach Mike McDonald a chance to get to 10-wins in his first season as head coach in Seattle. Although making the playoffs was likely his goal, 10-wins in the NFL in your first year is without a doubt a success. With that motivation and the Rams sitting the majority of their key guys, I don’t see how LA wins this game. It would take significant give up by that Seattle defense. I like the Seahawks here so that’s leg 2
Official Pick: Chargers -.5 | Seahawks -1 (-110)
Play Rating: 2-Star
Best Bet NFL Afternoon/Sunday Night Football Teaser (12/29/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | December 29, 2024 | 1:52 P.M. CST
Top Teaser of the Week: Green Bay Packers +7 | Atlanta Falcons +10.5
Play Rating: 2-Star
Best Bet CFP Round 1 (12/21/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | December 21, 2024 | 1:37 A.M. CST
Best Bet CFP Saturday Games: 2-Team, 6 Point Teaser: Penn State -2 | Ohio State -1
We’re going to go with a two team ML Parlay and take two big favorites. I normally hate doing teasers in CFB, but in this case, it’s worth it. I make the probability of Ohio State winning over 87% and Penn State 93%. Barring major injuries we’re going to see two blowouts. If you want to turn this into a ML parlay and throw Texas in there, you would actually get plus money. I’m going with the teaser, but BOTH are good options.
Official Pick: Penn State -2 | Ohio State -1 (2-Team, 6 Point Teaser)
Play Rating: 2-Star
College Football Bowl Game Best Bets: Alamo Bowl, Top Totals, & More (12/21/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | December 21, 2024 | 1:11 P.M. CST
Here I’m going to give my best 4 Bowl Bets of the next few weeks.
Bowl Game BEST BETS (Sides)
Colorado -3 vs. BYU | Play Rating: 2-Star
Rutgers +7 vs. K-State | Play Rating: 2-Star
Bowl Game Best Bets (Totals)
UTSA vs. Coastal Carolina OVER 56.5 | 2-Star
Iowa State vs. Miami OVER 55.5 | 2-Star
College Basketball Best Bets (12/14/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | December 14, 2024 | 8:57 A.M. CST
Current Record: 13-3 (81.3%)
Best Bets Today:
1) Dayton +1.5 vs. Marquette: This is a pure fade of Marquette playing another true road game. The one true road game they played they were a 7 point dog at Iowa State and got pounded. Dayton has an underrated home court advantage. The public will be all over Marquette, and Dayton has a solid squad this year. They competed with some good teams in Maui, and they will pull the outright upset today.
2) Gonzaga vs. UCONN OVER 151.5: Gonzaga is one of the most up tempo teams in the country and they shoot an absurd number of threes. Additionally, UCONN’s defense has been porous so far this season, and I believe Gonzaga will exploit that. Both teams are very good shooting teams: UCONN is top 10 in eFG% and Gonzaga is top 70 as well. There’s a good chance this turns into an up tempo game because UCONN will often morph to it’s opponents style and the Zags want to get up and down.
3) Depaul -3.5 vs. Wichita State: Wichita State comes into this game with just 1 loss this season, but they’ve played one of the easier schedules in the country. They beat a bad St. Louis team easily in the Hall of Fame Classic, and followed it up with a win over a bottom 5 Big 10 team in Minnesota, and needed OT to beat them. The one team they played with a pulse was Florida, and the Gators DESTROYED them 88-51. Depaul hasn’t been great by any means, but the amount they’ve improved this year under first year head coach Chris Holtman is significant. They started the season 8-0, but dropped their last two games to Texas Tech and Providence. Although Tech did beat them easily, the Providence game went to overtime. And that Providence team is nothing to laugh at. This is a good bounce back spot for Depaul. They’re playing at home, and I think they get it done laying a short number. This will be a big win for Holtman and company. Take Depaul and lay the 3.5
All Plays: 2-Star
College Basketball Best Bet (12/12/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | December 12, 2024 | 3:04 P.M. CST
Best Bet: Iowa Hawkeyes +5.5 vs. Iowa State Cyclones
So we’re going to look to the home dog in the Iowa Hawkeyes in this rivalry tonight. This is a rivalry that has largely been dominated by the HOME team in the past decade. In fact there’s only been 2 OUTRIGHT road victories between these two teams the last 10 times the two squared off. The last time Iowa State came to Carver-Hawkeye Arena was back in 2022, when Iowa State came in 7-1 (just as they do tonight), ranked 20th in the country; they lost that game by 19 points.
Now, while Iowa was actually a short favorite in that game, it’s a VERY similar spot here. Iowa has been very good under Fran McCaffrey at home. They have a strong home court advantage, and they seem to shoot better in their own building. And boy can this Iowa team shoot it. They have 6 guys on the team who are shooting 35% or better on the season (in the rotation). And that’s not including one of their best players in Payton Sandfort. Sandfort is off to a rough start this season, shooting under 32% from beyond the arc. This is a kid who has traditionally shot in the 36-37% range over the course of his career. Sandfort is a senior, and this could possibly be his final time playing in the Cy-Hawk Rivalry. It really wouldn’t surprise me if this ended up being a breakout game for him.
We’ve seen money on the over in this one as well, as both teams rank in the top 90 in adjusted tempo. Iowa plays EXTREMELY fast, coming in at 22nd in the country in adjusted tempo. Iowa State’s is lower because they make teams play very long possessions defensively. However, from an offensive perspective they get up and down as much as anyone. If Iowa is hitting threes early, this could easily become a shootout. I wanted to look to the over here, but once this hit 161 it was hard to make a case. That number is right about where it should be. At 159 (the open) I could buy it. Not at our current price. One good thing, however, is that if Iowa is going to win this game, it’s going to need to be that up and down, high scoring game. If this game goes under the total, by more than 10 points, that’s how ISU wins this by quite a large number. Therefore, I like that we’ve seen sharp money come in on the OVER to push this out to 162 in some spots. It supports the hypothesis that Iowa is going to be the pro side in this one.
Lastly, I looked into TJ Otzleberger’s time at Iowa State, and although he’s a PHENOMENAL coach and I’m a big fan of his, the Cyclones have really struggled to win on the road under Otz. And, when they have won on the road, it’s very seldom by margin. In fact, the past 3 seasons (Otzelberger took over in 2021 at the start of that span), Iowa State is just 11-19 straight up on the road (36.7%). Of those 11 wins, ONLY THREE have come by more than 6 or more points (which is what they will need to win by tonight to cover). Moreover, 2 of those 3 times they indeed DID win by 6+ they were actually underdogs. So, only once in TJ Otzelbergers THREE FULL SEASONS have the Cyclones covered a number this big on the road. I like those odds. Lastly, Iowa hasn’t been a dog at home all that often over the past couple seasons. But if you go back to 2010 Iowa has been a home dog 34 times; they are 20-13-1 ATS (60.6% cover rate) and 15-19 SU (and keep in mind that’s as a DOG). So they’ve been VERY good at home in the past 15 years, and I expect nothing less tonight. Take the points with the home dog, as I believe the #3 Cyclones may be going down tonight in Des Moines.
OFFICIAL PLAY: Iowa +5.5
PLAY RATING: 2-Star
College Basketball Best Bet (12/10/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | December 10, 2024 | 6:37 P.M. CST
Current Record: 12-2 (85.7%, +19.6 Units)
Best Bet: Arkansas +4.5 vs. Michigan
We’re going with the home dog tonight (Shocker). I do really like this Michigan team, and they have showed that they are legitimate contender in the Big 10. However, we’ve reached peak market on Michigan here, laying more than 4 points in a tough road game against a talented team. Michigan has talent as well, and likely a coaching advantage (Dusty May is phenomenal), but this number is too high. As good as they’ve looked the last couple weeks, their first two conference games were both decided by less than this number. They very well could’ve lost AT HOME to Iowa just a few days ago. Now they play a less meaningful game on a neutral floor in this spot. Additionally, this game IS meaningful to Arkansas as they need a signature win. They have not beaten a good team yet this year, and Cal is looking for that big time victory to get this season going. I believe they are going to treat this game as a big one, and I think they will be ready to go. I believe Arkansas not only covers this number, but wins the game outright. We take the points here in what should be a fun, close game, and hopefully we don’t even need them and the Hogs can win it on the floor. Take the 4.5 with Arkansas and let’s keep the streak going.
Official Play: Arkansas +4.5
Play Rating: 2-Star
College Basketball Best Bet (12/6/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | December 6, 2024 | 10:35 P.M. CST
Current Record: 11-2
Best Bet: Northwestern +3.5 vs. Illinois
We’re backing the home team here playing against a completely newly rebuilt Illinois team playing in their first conference road game. This is a hostile environment for a team that has absolutely zero chemistry. Additionally, NW needs this game like blood after a terrible loss to Iowa just a few days ago. NW was up 2 when Iowa hit a 35 footer at the buzzer to steal the game from the Wildcats. It was a brutal beat, and you can believe they are going to be motivated to show up here. This is a gritty bunch with some veteran guys who have been at NW a couple years. Let’s back the WILDCATS here plus the points, and sprinkle a little on the ML if you are inclined to, as we have a LIVE DOG here.
Official Play: Northwestern +3.5
Play Rating: 2-Star
NFL Best Bet Thursday Night Football (12/5/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | December 5, 2024 | 3:45 P.M. CST
TNF Game: Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions
LINE: Lions -3 | Total: 53
Best Bet:
So full disclosure I got this at a better number than currently available, but I still believe there’s value at the current price. And, while I don’t normally like taking overs in divisional matchups, let alone a second matchup of the season, that’s exactly what we’re going to do here. These two teams come into this game with 2 of the BEST offenses in the league when fully healthy. Thankfully for Packers fans, Jordan Love is finally that: healthy. The Packers come into this game with their full complement of weapons on the offensive side of the ball. On the other side, the Lions have been healthy for the most part on the offensive side of the ball for the entire season. Hence why they’ve bolstered the second most efficient offense in football through 13 weeks.
What isn’t healthy about these two teams is their DEFENSES. Both defenses are extremely banged up, especially the Lions. And, while there may be some familiarity between the teams, it’s not enough to overcome the bevy of injuries on both teams defenses. We’ll start with the Packers who are down their best secondary piece for another week in Jaire Alexander. He’s their lockdown corner, and with him out they will be very thin in the secondary vs these weapons. Then add in Corey Ballentine (CB) and Edgerrin Cooper (LB) both out as well. The Packers are going to have trouble keeping this Lions pass game in check. While sometimes the Lions lean on the run game, especially early in games, I believe in this spot we see a very balanced attack from the jump
The other defense is currently being held together by scotch tape and Elmer’s glue. I mean there are injuries across the board for the Lions. They had to sign multiple guys this week just to be able to field a roster out there tonight. Obviously they lost Aidan Hutchinson multiple weeks prior to this game, and then Alex Anzelone a few weeks later. Those two are massive losses that will show up here, in both pressuring the QB, as well as in stopping the run. Then you add in three new injuries ALL to that defensive line in DJ Reader, Joshua Paschal, & Levi Onwuzurike. They are down to 3rd string guys on that DL. Good luck in short yardage situations trying to stop Josh Jacobs, not to mention the difficulty this defense will have getting pressure on Jordan Love.
When you look at this number in the market, it’s extremely high, but it’s that high for a reason. If you don’t believe me that the injuries are THAT significant think about this. The line when Detroit played AT Green Bay in BAD WEATHER a few weeks back was Detroit -3.5. We are currently sitting at The Lions -3 AT HOME. What that means is on a neutral field Detroit is probably around 6 point favorite if this game is played 4 weeks ago. Now on a neutral field this line tells us that it’s basically a PICK EM! That’s ABSURD! And the reasoning is ENTIRELY because of the Lions defense. So the defensive injuries for Detroit are so large that they have legitimately swung the line 6 points from what previously thought. Maybe even 7 given how good Detroit has been this year. Interestingly, if you look at these teams when healthy, the power numbers put Detroit as a much bigger favorite than 3 points (as I just said), yet there has been NO professional support for the Lions in the market. Why? Because nobody wants to back that defense in its current form.
I don’t even think either offense has to bring their “A” games tonight to put up 28+ points, which is roughly what we’re going to need from each to go over this total. As much as I dislike overs in primetime games, as well as in divisional games, in this SPECIFIC SPOT, this is too good of a play to pass up. We’re going to take the LIONS/PACKERS OVER 53 (good to 53.5)
Official Play: Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions OVER 53 (-110)
Play Rating: 2-Star
College Basketball Phenomenal Start
Author: Dylan Lieck | December 3, 2024 | 10:49 P.M. CST
Current Record: 11-1
Unbelievable start to college basketball! I won’t be posting tons of plays the next two weeks but we will hopefully get a few out here and there. Best of luck and don’t force anything!
NFL Best Bets (12/1/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | December 1, 2024 | 1:33 A.M. CST
Best Bets: Both 2 Units
1) Two Team Teaser: Pittsburgh Steelers +9 | Washington Commanders PK
2) Minnesota Vikings -3 (-120) vs. Arizona Cardinals
Best Bets College Football (11/30/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | November 30, 2024 | 4:39 A.M. CST
Best Bet #1: 2 Team Teaser = Notre Dame -1 vs. USC | Arizona State -2 vs. Arizona
I traditionally HATE college football teasers. Usually the variance in CFB makes them negative EV plays. However, with how some of these big favorites have trended I found some value in a specific one here. The first team is Notre Dame. This is actually the team I like the best to win outright. I just don’t see a world in which USC wins the game outright. If Miller Moss was still starting for the Trojans, this is a game I would completely stay away from. However, for some reason Lincoln Riley decided to make a QB change a couple weeks back. Jayden Maiava just is not a good QB. And I think his inability to pass the ball will be a big problem for USC. You just cannot be one dimensional against Notre Dame’s Defense. I like ND to win this outright, however they rarely blow out USC in this rivalry at the Rose Bowl. So that’s partially why I like taking this down to -1. I did give out ND -7 on the podcast, but I think winning outright is an absolute LOCK here. ND has much more to play for as well.
On the other side, Arizona State is a team that is peaking at the right time. They are playing to essentially go to the Big 12 Title game. It’s not a fully win and in scenario, but it’s close. And they are facing the team that I deem the second worst team in the conference in Arizona. Yes, it’s a rivalry, but I just would be very surprised to see this be an outright upset. I don’t really love laying 8, though, with a team like ASU who has trouble winning by margin. I could see the backdoor being open late with that number.
So we’re going to tease those two teams for our first best bet. I love this play. Barring big upset, we should cash this relatively easily. There’s a decent chance both cover the actual number.
Official Play: ND -1 | Arizona State -2
Play Rating: 2-Star
Best Bet #2 (Total of the Week): Kansas @ Baylor OVER 61
I’m not going to break this one down in depth because I already did so on the podcast. If you want a full breakdown, checkout my pick there, as I explain why I LOVE this game to be a shootout. Give me the OVER here for best bet number 2
Official Play: Kansas @ Baylor OVER 61
Play Rating: 2-Star
Best Bet Friday Night: College Football LIVE DOG!! (11/29/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | November 29, 2024 | 4:47 P.M. CST
Best Bet: Utah Utes +10 @ Central Florida Knights
We’re going to take the Utah Utes +10 here on the road against the UCF Knights. Look this line is just wrong in my opinion. Not that I think Utah is good WHATSOEVER, but this Central Florida team is horrible. When you have two terrible teams playing each other, you try to find an edge on which team may be more motivated. Especially in a spot like this where technically neither team has anything to play for, with both coming in 4-7. If you have followed the Utah Utes at all you’d know that Kyle Whittingham is BELOVED in that community and he’s been their guy for decades. However, at his age and after this disaster of a season there’s real talk that this will be his final game as the Utah head coach. There are rumors wirling that he will retire after the end of this game. That’s a HUGE motivating factor to his players who LOVE playing for him.
Meanwhile, UCF has been one of the biggest disappoinments in the country after a 4-0 start. Add in the fact that Gus Malzan is known to rub his guys the wrong way. Additionally, there is only ONE game all year UCF has covered this number in conference play and it was against the 2nd worst team in the conference, the Arizona Wildcats. This Utah team still has talent defensively, and they haven’t been blown out every game. They’ve been very competitive in a number of spots, especially in more meaningful games (think back to the BYU game where they had the game won and were robbed).
So this spot is great for Utah, and this line is just off. We’re taking the points and we’re going to sprinkle on the ML too because I think Utah is GOING TO WIN THIS GAME OUTRIGHT
Official Pick: Utah +10 | Utah +300
Play Rating: 4-Star | 1 unit on ML
College Basketball Best Bet (11/29/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | November 29, 2024 | 2:32 P.M. CST
CBB Overall Record: 11-1 (91.7%, +19.8 Units)
Best Bet: Purdue -2 vs. Ole Miss
Play Rating: 2-Star
College Basketball Best Bets (11/27/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | November 27, 2024 | 2:01 P.M. CST
Current Record = 10-0 (+20.0 units)
Best Bet #1: Memphis Tigers +9.5 vs. #4 Auburn Tigers
Tigers vs. Tigers in the Maui Invitational Championship game this evening. And yup, you guessed it, we’re backing the Tigers in this one. The Memphis tigers, that is. The Maui Invitational 2024 edition has quite possibly been the most entertaining tournament I’ve seen in it’s entirety in a long time in college basketball. It’s felt like every single game has come down to the wire, which is partially why I’m going to lean to the dog here. The first round was full of crazy comebacks including Memphis blowing a 13 point lead against UCONN in the first round in the final 3 and a half minutes. The Tigers actually got down 4 in OT, but they were able to battle back and find a way to win that game and advance to the semis. I was very impressed with Memphis’ mental toughness in that game. Blowing a lead like that and letting a HUGE upset win over the #2 ranked UCONN Huskies is not easy to overcome. Once UCONN took a 4 point lead in the OT period, it would’ve been very easy for Memphis to lay down, but they didn’t. They fought back and pulled out a win. That was impressive
It was also impressive that the Tigers opened as a 1.5 point favorite against Michigan State in the semis, and SIGNIFICANT professional money came in AGAINST Memphis, pushing the line 4 full points to MSU -2.5 at close. Despite the market love for the Spartans, Memphis handled Sparty from start to finish. They took an early lead, and never really let Michigan State into the game all day long.
On the other hand Auburn was lucky to even get through the first round, after trailing by 18 points to a very good Iowa State team early in the second half. The Tigers found a way to pull themselves off the matte and tie the game with under a minute to go. A tip in by Jonahi Broome with 2 seconds left gave Auburn the win. They followed that up with a much less stressful win over North Carolina, 85-72. It was impressive how the Tigers were able to easily handle a talented Tarheels team. However, that UNC team had no business being in the semifinals. They were getting dominated by a subpar Dayton team in the first round, and if it weren’t for a 20+ free throw attempt disparity, they never even would’ve got the game to single digits. The officials kept North Carolina in the game to set up the big “marquee” matchup with Auburn in round 2, but it turned out to be the worst game of the tourney. And, that’s not a mistake, as I believe UNC might be the worst team in this tournament. It’s between them and Colorado who has looked really good after a big upset of UCONN last night.
Overall I just think this is too many points. I believe oddsmakers are taking into account the fact that Auburn beat Iowa State and then was able to handle a supposed top 15 team in UNC. But the reality is that UNC is a borderline top 25 team, and Auburn was fortunate to beat Iowa State at all. Memphis has looked like the much more consistent team in this tourney. I also think that this line is taking into account the fact that Memphis is not a very deep team. And, when playing a 3rd game in 3 days that should come into affect (according to oddsmakers). But I disagree. I’ve seen plenty of teams with not deep rosters come into this tournament and win the entire thing outright. I can remember back to 2010 when Kemba Walker literally won the tournament by himself. I can remember a Gonzaga team a couple years back winning it all with very little depth. I believe this early in the season, a lack of depth and a belief that legs will give out is not a good assumption. These are well trained athletes at the peak of their physical performance and there’s not really a progressive fatigue aspect to account for yet this year.
For all these reasons, as well as the fact that I just think this number is way too high (I made this Auburn -5) we’re going to back Memphis catching the 9.5. It’s just simply too many points to catch in a championship game, when the Memphis Tigers have that much talent on their roster. Let’s go MEMPHIS plus the points, and believe me when I say, they are a LIVE DOG HERE! Go Tigers!
Official Play: Memphis +9.5
Play Rating: 2-Star
Best Bet #2: UCONN Huskies vs. Dayton Flyers OVER 146.5
Nobody would’ve believed you if you said the #2 ranked UCONN Huskies, who have won back-to-back National Titles under Head Coach Dan Hurley, would be playing in the 7th place game in the Maui Invitational. It’s shocking from the standpoint that this is the highest ranking we’ve seen the Huskies carry into the pre-season. However, it’s not shocking when you look at all the pieces UCONN lost from last year’s team. An absurd FOUR starters were drafted in the 2024 NBA Draft who played on last year’s National Title Team. Stephon Castle and Donavan Clingan were drafted in the TOP TEN in the NBA Draft, while Cam Spencer and Triston Newton were both taken in the second round. The only starter from last year’s squad to return this year is Alex Karaban. And, while Karaban is a very good player, he’s not used to being option number 1 or even number 2.
Now all that said, the one important point to make here, goes hand-in-hand with why I like the over in this spot. What made that UCONN team so special last season was their incredible ability to defend at a high level. I mean that team was ELITE defensively, and they only got better in big moments. Even Zach Edey, who nobody could stop, struggled mightily in that National Title game until late when they allowed him to get some easy buckets. But, that area (defensively) is where we’ve seen the biggest drop off from UCONN year-over-year. In fact, offensively the first two games of the Maui Invitational, they really have looked great. Against Colorado in Round 2 they shot 48% from the field & 39% from three, making 12 triples in the game. In the first round against Memphis they were even better, shooting 49% from the field & 47% from three, while knocking down 14 triples in that contest. The issue is that the Huskies allowed BOTH unranked Colorado and unranked Memphis to each shoot OVER 50% from the field and OVER 50% from the 3-point line. Those are ABSURD numbers for this program’s expectations. Most importantly, though, is the fact that COLORADO did that to UCONN. Not to say a two-game sample size is relevant, but the way Dan Hurley operates, I felt that if UCONN’s defensive woes against Memphis were fixable in the short-run, we’d have seen some major adjustments to their scheme. But that wasn’t the case whatsoever. In fact, Colorado actually shot BETTER than Memphis did and was more efficient. Now the pace of the game was slower, but they still struggled to get stops. My overall point being, I don’t see how this UCONN team (from what I’ve seen this season) is going to have any better of an effort here.
Also keep in mind, this is a program that has won back-to-back National Titles, and they have lost a total of ONE non-conference game in the past 2 seasons. They are held to an extremely high standard. I bring that up to say, I don’t believe UCONN just lays over here and we get a lackluster performance. I think we see them play well offensively, and at least give effort throughout the game. And since I don’t think their defensive issues are immediately fixable, I think that’s a good recipe for an over.
Dayton on the other hand has played some really high scoring games. Game 1 of the Maui Invitational was a BEST BET WINNER for us as we went OVER the total in UNC/Dayton. We got there easily as the number was just 155, while there were a whopping 182 points scored in the game. Game 2, however, they played a much slower paced, much better defensive team, in Iowa State. The total on that game went FLYING OVER the 142.5, as the two teams combined for 175. That means in Dayton’s two games here in Maui, they’ve gone over their total by an average of 30 points. THIRTY POINTS. Now, I will say this: there is a reason this number is in the 140s and not higher. And that’s largely because Dayton plays a very methodical style offense with lots of motion. And, while they’re extremely efficient scoring the ball, they can take the air out of it at times. Additionally, while a team like UNC will push the pace, UCONN is much more adaptable to their opponent. The Huskies have always allowed their opponent to dictate tempo, and they’ve just been better at any style you want to play. So that’s the only thing that gives me pause here from making this a HUGE 3 or 4 star play. I decided to keep this a 2-star rating.
All that said, this number is short according to my metrics. I officially made this number 152.3 exactly (going by my power ratings) and we’re currently sitting at 146 or 146.5 depending on where you shop around. So we’re catching 6.3 points of value here, early in the season with two efficient offensive teams who also allow their opponents to shoot the ball at a high percentage. As long as we dodge a slow start from the two teams, given that it’s the final game of the tournament and they’re really playing for nothing, I think we should get there relatively sweat free. Although sweat-free tends to not exist in the gambling world. Nonetheless, best of luck, have a great Thanksgiving tomorrow, and enjoy cashing a nice total on the over in the final game of the great Maui Invitational.
Official Play: UCONN vs. Dayton OVER 146.5
Play Rating: 2-Star
College Basketball Best Bets (11/26/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | November 26, 2024 | 4:07 P.M. CST
Current Record = 8-0 (100%, +16.0 Units)
Best Bets:
1) Grand Canyon +1 vs. Stanford (2u)
2) Kansas +4.5 vs. Duke (2u)
No breakdowns today, but will be giving more soon! Best of luck!