College Basketball Best Bet (12/12/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | December 12, 2024 | 3:04 P.M. CST

Best Bet: Iowa Hawkeyes +5.5 vs. Iowa State Cyclones

So we’re going to look to the home dog in the Iowa Hawkeyes in this rivalry tonight. This is a rivalry that has largely been dominated by the HOME team in the past decade. In fact there’s only been 2 OUTRIGHT road victories between these two teams the last 10 times the two squared off. The last time Iowa State came to Carver-Hawkeye Arena was back in 2022, when Iowa State came in 7-1 (just as they do tonight), ranked 20th in the country; they lost that game by 19 points.

Now, while Iowa was actually a short favorite in that game, it’s a VERY similar spot here. Iowa has been very good under Fran McCaffrey at home. They have a strong home court advantage, and they seem to shoot better in their own building. And boy can this Iowa team shoot it. They have 6 guys on the team who are shooting 35% or better on the season (in the rotation). And that’s not including one of their best players in Payton Sandfort. Sandfort is off to a rough start this season, shooting under 32% from beyond the arc. This is a kid who has traditionally shot in the 36-37% range over the course of his career. Sandfort is a senior, and this could possibly be his final time playing in the Cy-Hawk Rivalry. It really wouldn’t surprise me if this ended up being a breakout game for him.


We’ve seen money on the over in this one as well, as both teams rank in the top 90 in adjusted tempo. Iowa plays EXTREMELY fast, coming in at 22nd in the country in adjusted tempo. Iowa State’s is lower because they make teams play very long possessions defensively. However, from an offensive perspective they get up and down as much as anyone. If Iowa is hitting threes early, this could easily become a shootout. I wanted to look to the over here, but once this hit 161 it was hard to make a case. That number is right about where it should be. At 159 (the open) I could buy it. Not at our current price. One good thing, however, is that if Iowa is going to win this game, it’s going to need to be that up and down, high scoring game. If this game goes under the total, by more than 10 points, that’s how ISU wins this by quite a large number. Therefore, I like that we’ve seen sharp money come in on the OVER to push this out to 162 in some spots. It supports the hypothesis that Iowa is going to be the pro side in this one.


Lastly, I looked into TJ Otzleberger’s time at Iowa State, and although he’s a PHENOMENAL coach and I’m a big fan of his, the Cyclones have really struggled to win on the road under Otz. And, when they have won on the road, it’s very seldom by margin. In fact, the past 3 seasons (Otzelberger took over in 2021 at the start of that span), Iowa State is just 11-19 straight up on the road (36.7%). Of those 11 wins, ONLY THREE have come by more than 6 or more points (which is what they will need to win by tonight to cover). Moreover, 2 of those 3 times they indeed DID win by 6+ they were actually underdogs. So, only once in TJ Otzelbergers THREE FULL SEASONS have the Cyclones covered a number this big on the road. I like those odds. Lastly, Iowa hasn’t been a dog at home all that often over the past couple seasons. But if you go back to 2010 Iowa has been a home dog 34 times; they are 20-13-1 ATS (60.6% cover rate) and 15-19 SU (and keep in mind that’s as a DOG). So they’ve been VERY good at home in the past 15 years, and I expect nothing less tonight. Take the points with the home dog, as I believe the #3 Cyclones may be going down tonight in Des Moines.

OFFICIAL PLAY: Iowa +5.5

PLAY RATING: 2-Star

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College Basketball Best Bet (12/10/24)